Economy Slumps To The Top Of The Campaign

Washington Post: Growing Anxiety Has Pushed Issue To The Forefront For Both Democrats And Republicans

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Peter Baker and Dan Balz.

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As the presidential campaign got underway a year ago, the candidates faced a volatile political environment dominated by the Iraq war, illegal immigration and terrorism. A year later, the campaigns are rewriting their playbooks as it appears that the race may actually be shaped by the economy.

The virtual halt in job growth, the climb of oil prices above $100 a barrel, the New Year's stock market tumble and the continuing mortgage crisis have fueled fears of recession and crystallized the nation's growing economic anxiety. Nowhere was that clearer this week than in New Hampshire, where exit polls showed that the economy has overtaken all other issues as the top concern for Democrats and Republicans alike.

While the Federal Reserve indicates that it will move to spur growth and President Bush and Congress consider stimulus packages, economic worry has already forced the presidential candidates to retool their messages. Republican Rudolph W. Giuliani proposed a new tax-cut package yesterday as rival Mike Huckabee prepared to take his populist message to economically distressed Michigan with a major address today. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who did best among New Hampshire voters worried about the economy, plans to unveil today what her campaign calls a "plan to jump-start America's ailing economy."

"The economy's number one," said Scott Paul, director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a coalition of manufacturers and the United Steelworkers that has found deep apprehension about the economy at town hall meetings in early-primary states. "It's organic. It's not an organized effort. But it's something the voters, Republicans and Democrats, are fretting about."

Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist advising the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), said his travels through Iowa in recent months brought home just how powerful the concern has become. "Everywhere I went, there were people all over the issue, asking a whole lot of economic questions -- as many questions as they were asking about Iraq," he said. "The conditions in the economy have only soured since then."

The poll numbers in New Hampshire were striking. Among Democrats, 38 percent called the economy the biggest issue, compared with 31 percent who named Iraq and 27 percent who said health care. Among Republicans, 31 percent cited the economy, while 24 percent said Iraq and 23 percent chose illegal immigration.

Nationally, the economy began popping to the top of voter concerns before the turn of the year. A Washington Post-ABC News poll in November found that Iraq was the dominant issue by 2 to 1. By last month, the same survey found the economy and Iraq essentially tied as the biggest areas of concern for voters across the country.

But different voters have different anxieties about the economy. For some, it may be jobs, for others housing. Health care and energy costs trouble large swaths of the population. "You'll see candidates spending more time on the economy," said former White House political director Sara M. Taylor, who worked on Bush's campaigns. "But it won't be enough to address the economy as a whole. They'll have to discuss" individual areas of concern.

Clinton managed to tap into that anxiety this week in New Hampshire more successfully than Obama. Although she has sought to address the disaffected middle class since last spring, much as her husband did in his 1992 campaign, her message had often been muffled until she returned to it more intensively in recent days. She repeatedly cited her husband's record of producing 22 million new jobs while promising to make college more affordable and to ensure universal health care.

The National Election Pool exit poll in New Hampshire showed Clinton winning among voters who cited the economy as the biggest issue and among those who said their own families were falling behind financially. Among those who consider the economy in poor shape, she beat Obama 44 percent to 31 percent, a margin 10 percentage points greater than her overall edge. Although Democrat John Edwards's populist message is designed to appeal to those who feel most aggrieved by economic inequality and corporate power, the former senator from North Carolina did only somewhat better in winning their votes than the votes of other constituencies.

Obama has an economic plan centered on tax cuts for the lower and middle classes and has held events built around the subprime mortgage crisis. He has also begun making more direct appeals to the economically disadvantaged. "We understand that the struggles of the textile worker in Spartanburg are not so different than the plight of the dishwasher in Las Vegas," he told a crowd in Charleston, S.C., yesterday, echoing a line from his New Hampshire concession speech.

Republicans are also reorienting their messages to take into account growing concerns about the economy, beginning in Michigan over the next six days. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who addresses the Detroit Economic Club today, is the only Republican whose economic message breaks from party orthodoxy with a more populist appeal on the plight of the working class, concern over income inequality and doubt about the effectiveness of free trade.

When he arrived in Michigan on Wednesday, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) spoke directly to those problems with a pledge to help workers whose jobs have disappeared through globalization. Giuliani yesterday proposed to cut corporate and capital gains tax rates and simplify the tax code so Americans can file a one-page return. Mitt Romney yesterday issued a statement boasting of his economic record as Massachusetts governor.

Michigan, which votes Tuesday, may be a proving ground on the issue. "It's huge in Michigan," said William R. Rustem, president of Public Sector Consultants. "We continue to be at or near the bottom in terms of unemployment. We were tied in 2005 with North Dakota for the largest out-migration rate. So the economy is going to be huge. People are looking for answers at both the state and federal level as to what we do in Michigan."

Beyond the primaries, both parties are contemplating what the economy may mean for the general election if Bush and the Federal Reserve cannot head off a recession. As the incumbent party, the Republicans may have a new vulnerability. But Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former White House economist now advising McCain, said the party will not matter as much as the candidate.

"The American public is looking for leadership," he said. "They want to be convinced the economy's in good hands, and that will be the quality that will be needed in the fall."

Staff writers Peter Slevin in Chicago and Alec MacGillis in Charleston and polling director Jon Cohen in Washington contributed to this report.

[tucano2]

Horsepucky!
ILLEGAL ALIENS (and their negative effect on everything American) - now there''s the underlying often unspoken but never ignored issue.

[cfin5]

homespunlady,.....Whew! Guess you can add any scenario to the quote, but you went way to far in what he was talking about. I actually heard the before and after of this quote from Dr. Williams on the radio. He was simply referring to folks earning their own money as opposed to living on the dole of others perpetually.

[homespunlady]

Neither does society work as an overly oppressive, totally controlled situation that ONCE AGAIN has a SMALL minority dictating to a vast majority with a HUGE GAP in living standards between the 2.

The secret is attaining an acceptable BALANCE where there may be relatively SLIGHT variations in living standards, wealth and power that are not perceived as "undeserved".

Ironically, in a time of slavery that appears to be the goal that our founding fathers TRIED to put forward.

Those IDEALS are what has sustained and built this nation - NOT the reality that has caused so many of it''s wide economic swings.

Perceived inequities also are one of the causes of our most divided time the Civil War.

Post WW II allowed for a rising tide of across the board wealth as those involved REMEMBERED the consequences in the 30''s of the inequalities and excesses of the Robber Barons and foolishness of the 20''s that LED to the Great Depression.

[homespunlady]

Posted by cfin5 at 09:37 PM : Jan 11, 2008

So, according to your quote "creative millionaire CON MEN that RIP-OFF the weak, downtrodden and elderly are JUSTIFIED in their line of "work"????

It''s NOT the concerned leader that pays a DECENT wage to his worker (a dying breed lately) but the SELF-AGGRANDIZING manipulator that has gained POWER at the EXPENSE of his/her VICTIMS that bothers me.
THOSE type have literally TAKEN OVER and RUINED our nation''s ECONOMY in their relentless pursuit of personal wealth and power while totally DISREGARDING their IMPLIED social RESPONSIBILITIES for their fellow man.

Society does NOT work as a free for all "Lord of the Flies" everyone for themselves situation.

When that happens EVERYONE eventually suffers.

FIRST the downtrodden and poor, then the Middle and finally in revolt the TOP go out - often in a spectacular form of violence which resets some of the imbalances perceived by those that have been taken advantage of.

History shows THAT cycle over and over. The problem is the American citizen has been fooled into believing we can DEFY natural social consequences and get away with it.
Tell that to the Romans, French Royalty, Russian Royalty, etc.

[cfin5]

"We might think of dollars as being ''certificates of performance.'' The better I serve my fellow man, and the higher the value he places on that service, the more certificates of performance he gives me. The more certificates I earn, the greater my claim on the goods my fellow man produces. That''s the morality of the market. In order for one to have a claim on what his fellow man produces, he must first serve him." - Dr. Walter E. Williams

[almanojodo]

Rx for our economy ROMNEY!

[sgtrds]

Republicans hold the White House for two terms, deficits skyrocket, the economy tanks and Democrats have to come in and clean up the mess they leave behind. Deja vu all over again.

[azmka]

Look at the billion, yes billion dollar bonus'' insurance company CEO''s get while patients still have to pay extremely high costs for health care.

Corporate America is top heavy.

[element51]

I failed to mention medical care in my earlier post. I am very lucky that I am a veteran and get my meds from the VA. But I don''t have any dental and I recently went to a dentist and was told they could start the work that I needed as soon as I put up a deposit of eight thousand dollars. When I asked about making payments they just laughed. Can a change in the White House fix any of the problems we face? I really doubt it but we can always hope, can''t we?

[element51]

nolalou....I think RandalDS was posting a joke about an earlier post by luvcbs3 earlier on this thread. That''s how I took it...I could be wrong but take a look. I think the key word was "aliens".

[element51]

Omega39 and nolalou....Both your posts were very interesting. You have both brought up a discussion that needs to be heard. In the case of deporting 12 million illegals...absurd! As that 12 million are being deported, 12 million more will be coming in. Why? Because corporate America needs the cheap labor. As long as immigration laws that are now on the books are not enforced nothing will change. Lots of folks blame the illegals but their blame is directed to the wrong area. Check out a movie called, "Fast Food Nation" and you will get an idea of how things are. Now, concerning consumer spending. As it becomes more difficult to purchase the necessities there will be less money for everything else. Have you noticed that your grocery bill has shot up like a rocket? Gas, utilities, clothing, everything is going up..except wages. If you have to spend all your money on these things, there won''t be any left to buy a new widgit. And take a look at higher education costs. WOW.

[searingtruth]

Hmmm ...

Isn''t it odd that when you think the masses of ordinary workers don''t count, and only a few corporations do, that the economy always goes right down the toilet.

And then corporate titans ask themselves silly questions like "Why isn''t anyone buying our products?", after leaving the population with jobs that barely pay enough for them to exist, or no jobs at all.

Go figure.
ST


"Boomerang."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com

[g02342000]

John Edwards is the only one that will fight poverty and bring health care and education to the poor & middle class of America. The Edwards / Biden ticket would be the best Presidency for all America, anything less will be as bad as keeping Bush in office forever. America deserves honest men of integrity that will fight for all Americans. Edwards is a true patriot that can make America great, he has the substinance, determination, and will to fight greed, corruption and end the outsourcing of our jobs, His economic, education, health and welfare policies are now being copied by all the canidates. Edwards spoke out months and even years before the others. America needs to think about why are the "Washington Greed, Corruption, Large Corporations and Media" trying to make this a two candidate Democratic race? Edwards is the only one able to win the Presidency from the democratic side, and any republican that is nominated will beat Clinton and/or Obama. Only Edwards can fix Bush''s mistakes!

[omega39-2009]

Now, who picks the crops? Who does the cheap manual labor? If you can find Americans to do those jobs, it will cost a lot more, so be prepared for your grocery prices to double or triple! How will that do anything but make the economy even worse?
Posted by nolalou

They had a story on the news today about food costs rising 16% over last year. The bottom line is that if you expect your economy to be driven by consumer spending, you have to pay the consumer a living wage.

[omega39-2009]

Posted by SamTheTVCat at 02:37 PM

Check out the salaries and perks of the college presidents and board members.

[nolalou]

RandalDS said "Deport the illegal alien invaders!!!!" as his way to revive from an economic crisis. OK, lets say we do that, somehow we are able to round up and deport about 12 million people who are in this country illegally! (which would cost millions to do!) Now, who picks the crops? Who does the cheap manual labor? If you can find Americans to do those jobs, it will cost a lot more, so be prepared for your grocery prices to double or triple! How will that do anything but make the economy even worse? Lets face it, our economy depends on cheap labor!

In addition all those illegals actually put money into our economy! After all , they spend the money they earn on food, housing, cars, etc. While some do not pay payroll tax, they do pay sales tax. Major companies from Cell Phone carriers, banks, and health insurance companies actively market to Hispanic and largely illegal immigrant communities.

Don''t get me wrong, I''m not saying we should just open our borders. We need to reform immigration laws, but deporting 11 million people doesn''t make sense, and will hurt, not help our economy!

[samthetvcat]

Why IS college so expensive anyway? Profs have maybe 5 hours of lectures a week, a couple of office hours and then put out 3 or 4 articles a year on average. They also have tenure. And many of them also do consulting work and write textbooks on the side for extra $.

I feel like maybe colleges are taking advantage of the fact that demand far exceeds supply. Although I suppose there''s not much a president can do about college price gouging if that''s part of the problem :(

[samthetvcat]

"Clinton managed to tap into that anxiety this week in New Hampshire more successfully than Obama. Although she has sought to address the disaffected middle class since last spring, much as her husband did in his 1992 campaign, her message had often been muffled until she returned to it more intensively in recent days. She repeatedly cited her husband''s record of producing 22 million new jobs while promising to make college more affordable and to ensure universal health care."

Hillary did do this better than Barack. Although I''m surprised they went for Hillary instead of Edwards . . . what''s behind that? Nostalgia?

[usayesterday]

Nobody is going to be our hero.

No Presidential candidate... no member of Congress... no senator... NOBODY!

Core issues of our economy will need to be addressed and that will take a whole concerted effort on the part of the Executive Branch, Legislative Branch, and the private sector.

Those issues are:

- Good paying jobs IN America FOR AMERICANS

- Affordable health care available for EVERY American, provided by private industry but subsidized by the government for the low-middle income earners who cannot afford it on their own, but make too much money to qualify for Medicare.

- More subsidies, loans, and grants to middle income households who have children that qualify to go to a major university, but cannot afford the tuition costs. Or in short, better access to high-end schools for middle income households.

Those are just three of the biggest issues that have the biggest long-term effects on our economy... and we are facing those effects right now.

[antoniof123]

I figured it out now. The Republican answer is to cut taxes. They will cut down on government spending like health care (who needs it), education (no problem who needs it), infrastructure (don''t need good roads and good communication). Once we good to hel1 in a handbag and obtain 3rd world status all the illegals will return to their original homes. Hey they just solved the problem. God these neo cons are stupid.