Poll Shows Carney In Strong Position For Reelection

By Josh Kraushaar

(The Politico)  A newly-released poll suggests that Rep. Chris Carney (D-Pa.) is in strong shape for reelection, and is benefiting from his conservative district’s surprisingly high disapproval of President Bush.

Carney has a 58 percent approval rating in the district, with only 12 percent of registered voters disapproving of his job performance. Even a majority of registered Republicans in the district (53 percent) said they approve of Carney’s performance in office.

In a head-to-head matchup against his two declared Republican rivals, businessmen Chris Hackett and Dan Meuser, he leads by comfortable margins. Carney leads Meuser 53 percent to 23 percent, while he holds a 55 percent to 21 percent lead over Meuser.

Much of the lead in the head-to-head matchups, however, is a result of the GOP candidates’ low name identification in the district. They are just beginning to fully campaign with nearly one year to go until the general election.

Even more striking than Carney’s high approval ratings is the fact that President Bush is viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters in this solidly-conservative northeastern Pennsylvania district. While Bush won 60 percent of the vote here in 2004, only 45 percent of respondents said they viewed the president favorably today. (Fifty-two percent view Bush unfavorably.)

That’s a sharp warning sign that the Republican brand may be damaged even in some of the most reliably Republican districts in this country. If the poll’s numbers are accurate, it may take a damaged Democratic incumbent — and not just the overall GOP tilt of a district — for Republicans to oust incumbents this November.

The poll was conducted by the Democratic firm Momentum Analysis on behalf of the American Hospital Association PAC. It was conducted between December 6-9, and has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.