Jan. 10, 2008
Giuliani In The Driver's Seat
National Review Online: Republican's Late-State Strategy Set To Pay Dividends
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Play CBS Video Video Giuliani: We Have Work To Do "CBS News RAW": Rudy Giuliani was the first candidate to concede defeat in the New Hampshire primary. He promised followers the hard work of his campaign had only just begun.
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Video Huckabee Asks For Rudy's Vote "CBS News RAW": Bumping into each other at a Manchester, N.H., polling station, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani exchange some friendly words on primary day.
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Video Iowa's Losers Harry Smith takes a look at the candidates who did not perform well in Iowa, including Rudy Giuliani, who didn't campaign there at all.
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Photo Essay Rudy Giuliani September 11th made this combative New Yorker "America's Mayor." Will he also be America's president?
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News Tools Campaign Calendar The latest list of primary and caucus dates as states continue jockeying for position.
No matter the order of finish in New Hampshire on Tuesday, the Republican primary’s real winner is former New York mayor, Rudy Giuliani.
As John McCain surges ahead, Giuliani’s national numbers have fallen. Rudy’s decision to ignore both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries guaranteed poor showings in these still-important first-in-the-nation contests, and as a result, Giuliani’s candidacy became something of an afterthought in media coverage. The Financial Times analyzed the Republican contenders and, in a final sentence, informed its readers that Rudy Giuliani is “also in contention.”
However, as the Republican race journeys down to South Carolina, and then on to Florida - prior to decisive Super Tuesday - Giuliani may be in the best overall shape of any Republican candidate. Giuliani’s advantage over his competitors in key facets of the nomination battle is increasingly overlooked; too little attention has been paid to his financial resources, organization, and electability.
The Giuliani campaign has made comparatively large investments in organization, candidate visits, and advertising in many of the big, early-voting states, including Florida, California, and Illinois. Consequently, beyond the headline poll numbers, Giuliani holds a far more competitive position across the spectrum of upcoming primary states than Mike Huckabee, McCain, or Mitt Romney.
Aside from Giuliani, only the McCain campaign planned for a truly national, state-by-state race, but McCain no longer has the funds to afford one. Romney chose to put all his chips on knockout victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, unaware that his candidacy would be the one administered smelling salts.
Of course, Romney could self-finance the rest of his campaign. After New Hampshire, however, he may have no other means of keeping a campaign on political life-support afloat.
An impressive New Hampshire showing will infuse the McCain campaign with enough new dollars and free media to soldier on to Michigan and South Carolina - but not much farther - unless McCain can pull off an upset in one of those states.
Huckabee’s religious populism has the potential to gain support as the race heads south. However, his campaign doesn’t possess the organizational muscle to rack up convention delegates beyond a comparatively small number of targeted states.
Hence, Huckabee’s disproportionate strength among evangelicals suggests he may do well in South Carolina, but it’s hard to see how he beats Giuliani in delegate-rich California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. Although Giuliani isn’t as strong as he was across all Super Tuesday states, he still leads in a majority of these states.
An interesting dynamic played out during the past several weeks. While Huckabee, McCain, and Romney engaged in a three-way street brawl replete with expensive, negative attack-ads, Giuliani stood on the sidelines holding his competitors coats. When did anyone last run an anti-Giuliani ad? Long perceived as the short-tempered tough-guy of the Republican race, Giuliani’s image was softened (and improved) by default, and at no cost to his campaign.
Critically, only Giuliani has both the money and the organization available to maintain front-runner status in all the important states. If Giuliani wins Florida, where he currently leads, on the eve of Super Tuesday he will (once again) become the prohibitive favorite for his party’s nomination.
Beyond securing the nomination, only one other Republican, John McCain, can challenge Giuliani on electability grounds. Unlike Huckabee and Romney, Giuliani and McCain are competitive in general election trial-heats against the leading Democratic contenders, though they do not currently poll as well against Senator Obama as they do against Senator Clinton.
Without question, the Giuliani campaign’s unconventional “big state” strategy is a high-risk one. After New Hampshire, it’s also the most likely to capture a majority of the 2,345 convention delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.
By Patrick Basham
Reprinted with permission from National Review Online.
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Typical clueless, rightwing propaganda from one of the least credible neo-con rags there is.
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Poor National Review. Desparation is a terrible thing. Yes, Rudy is in great shape. The evangelicals just love him. He is a corrupt, immoral, POS, but I guess he is all you got. Poor Republicans.
Don''t you think Hitlery''s poll numbers were fixed in New
Hampshire??? I do...............There were towns in N.H. that didn''t even report Ron Paul''s numbers and there were supporters there who voted for him. Can''t trust those Clintons.................
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Posted by fabdd40 at 02:18 PM : Jan 10, 2008
+ report abuse
I know you folks are sincere about your canidate but he''s in the WRONG party... the Fascist aren''t going to give this guy a chance and you should just accept that.
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Posted by tylenol6 at 05:56 PM : Jan 10, 2008
+ report abuse
The margin of victory this time will be so great they won''t be able to fix it. Did you see the numbers voting in the Democratic Primary in NH? Those Numbers are staggering and the same is going on all across this nation. We have a NEW Generation of young people who WANT to make a difference. Now combine that with the Boomer Generation which stands ready to assume their position as the nation''s elders and you have a very good mix.
GO RON PAUL
in their right mind would vote for this MORON. Watch out, Lou Dobbs is pushing people to change to Independent and guess probably who for????? BLOOMBERG...
BEWARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rudy is a Bush puppet and is a scumbag. The only way scumbag Rudy will win is if the elections are fixed. Sorry to say, but they probably are....
Rudy, Rudy,
he''s our man!
If he can''t do it,
nobody can.
More NRO crappola.
Cheerlead this loser somewhere else.
You aren''t fooling anyone.
I couldn''t agree with you more. Ron Paul is the only candidate telling the truth. He is a man that refuses to take his congressional pension. He is a honorable and decent man. God bless Ron Paul! The right man for the right time.
- by bgodley January 10, 2008 4:38 PM EST
- It is amazing that most pieces are written about electability and other non important issues. We have a serious financial situation on our hands but there is NOTHING about what candidate is going to what about it. The Comptroller of the United States said two days ago we are in essence bankrupt. Merril Lynch came out and said the recession has arrived. Countrywide may need the Chinese to bail them out. That will make a communist govt. owner of the largest mortgage broker and holder of real estate securities in the United States. This in addition to Citibank, Merril and Bear Stearns all asking for foreign investment from the Saudis and Chinese. We are being sold off at a rapid rate. COME ON PEOPLE. WAKE UP, WAKE UP, WAKE UP. Manufacturing hit a 5 year low. Our govt. is up to its eyeballs in debt and inflation indicators are all here now. Wall Street is begging for rate reductions to artificially prop up the market but the FED, if they do it, will sink us further. December just topped on previous foreclosure records.
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See all 17 CommentsIf you love your country and kids vote Ron Paul. He is the only candidate seriously talking about this stuff. I am sorry but you won''t be able to bury your head in the sand anymore.