Obama Supporters See Triumph Then Disaster

Washington Post: A Night Of Disappointment For Democrats Expecting A Win In New Hampshire

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Alec MacGillis and Jose Antonio Vargas.

---

Tobin Van Ostern came here for a party. The 19-year-old sophomore at George Washington University had spent three weeks devoted to Sen. Barack Obama -- in Washington, Des Moines and in Londonderry, N.H., where he knocked on 90 doors Tuesday afternoon. Election night was to be his reward, another raucous celebration on behalf of a challenger who seemed poised to deliver a second stinging setback to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Then, the silence, unlike any the adherents of his boisterous campaign had yet experienced, as Van Ostern and a huge crowd of perplexed supporters stood in a high school gym with their eyes fixed on a television screen as returns came in showing Clinton holding onto a lead of several percentage points. At 10:10, Van Ostern nervously ticked on his Blackberry. Text messages flooded in from Students for Barack Obama members across the country, in New York, California and Illinois. What the heck is going on? they asked. Why is it so close? Eyes closed, arms folded, Van Ostern sighed again.

At 10:30, the Associated Press called the race for Clinton (D-N.Y.).. Soon afterward, Obama (D-Ill.) emerged to congratulate Clinton. Van Ostern stood and stared.

"I'm as good as can be expected," he said.

The crowd -- and the ranks of Obama supporters nationwide -- was suffering the shock of the second major turn in five days in the dizzying race for the Democratic presidential nomination. After struggling for months to prove the viability of his challenge of the Democratic establishment favorite and former first lady, Obama surged into New Hampshire after his victory in Iowa with the confidence of an overnight front-runner, urging crowds as large as 3,000: "New Hampshire, it is your turn to change America."

Clinton made do with smaller, more placid crowds, contended with speculation about a major staff shake-up and a possible early exit. She also saw herself fall about 10 percentage points down in some state polls. Obama supporters swelled with an air of easy expectation: how big would the margin be? How would Obama follow up his rousing victory speech in Des Moines this time around? How would the Clinton campaign go on?

And then, the quiet. The mood inside the gym was stoic. Faces looked strained; a young woman in a black turtleneck and a big Obama button turned off her digital camera and shoved it inside her purse. A few feet from her, in front of a homemade sign that read "Fired up, ready to go!", a burly man took his Boston Red Sox cap and put it on again, before letting out a big sigh.

It would be left to Obama himself to try to pick up the crowd. The man whose rhetorical prowess had marked moments of triumph and ascendance, who had burst onto the national scene with a speech in 2004 and wowed supporters and television viewers with a short tour de force after his win in Iowa, now had to explain to his supporters what had happened, assure them that the surge of the past week had not been a mirage.

"We always knew our climb would be steep," he said. "We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember, no matter what obstacles stand in our way nothing can stand in the way of millions of voices calling for change."

He reminded them that the campaign had been trailing Clinton in the state until just a few weeks earlier. He told them the crowds lining up at his events were proof that "something is happening." He invoked Clinton's chiding -- that he was offering voters "false hope" -- to cast the setback as a counter by the forces of reaction: "We have been told we cannot do this by a chorus of cynics . . . and they will only grow louder in the weeks ahead," he said. "We've been warned against offering the people false hope. But in the unlikely story of America there has never been anything false about hope."

He opened the speech with the campaign's traditional refrain -- "I'm still fired up and ready to go" -- and closed it with a new one: "Yes we can." On came his customary Stevie Wonder post-speech music, which rang slightly off-subject this time: "Signed, Sealed and Delivered."

For Josh Pollack, a Washington lawyer who had come to New Hampshire, the speech served as a balm. "It was an incredibly disappointing evening," he said. "But his speech was incredibly uplifting and in some ways made it all worth it. I had never heard the 'yes we can' bit at the end. It almost brought me to tears."

But others were struggling to make sense of what had unfolded. Sue Tice, 49, a library assistant at the high school speculated that Clinton's moment of vulnerability on Monday -- tearing up on camera at a diner -- may have helped her. "I really wonder if it was yesterday, when Hillary became a person," she said.

Tara Parker, 37, a professor from Massachusetts, wondered whether the campaign and its supporters had become too content in the final days, buoyed by the encouraging polls and huge crowds. "This is a wake-up call," she said. "What I think might have happened is people got kind of complacent. Barack had a large lead. People said, 'hey, it's a shoo-in, we don't have to worry about it.'"

Jeremy Blyth, 36, of Philadelphia put the best spin on the results. "He needs to lose at some point," he said. "It's better earlier than later. I'll learn a lot about him as he responds to a loss."

The day had started with such promise. Van Ostern and his girlfriend drove more than 50 miles around Londonderry, heading from one driveway to the next, making sure that Obama supporters knew where and when to vote. About 5 p.m., Van Ostern walked up onto the Feldmans' driveway on Colonial Drive. Marcia Feldman, 47, greeted him. She said she'd voted for Bill Richardson. "How about your husband?" he said.

"He's leaning towards McCain or Obama," Feldman told Van Ostern.

But then it was 10:30 in the gym, and the returns weren't looking good. Voters such as Feldman's husband were turning out to be fateful after all: How many independents who admired Obama had instead voted in the Republican primary for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), who won handily? "This is nerve-racking," Van Ostern said.

As the television screen showed CNN and the AP calling the race for Clinton, 39 percent to 36 percent, Van Osten searched for the positive. "That's close. We've finished first and second. Clinton's finished third and first. We're still ahead."

[kevzgrl]

No, bobnjersey, I am a WHITE woman who can''t stand Hillary, plain and simple. I can''t stand ANY woman who would play the little doormat like she did for so many years, simply with an eye to furthering HER political chances the way she did. If Bill had played around on me like he did her so many times and with so many women, I would have kicked his A-ss to the curb so fast it would have made his head spin...

Also, to pepperp1: While we like Governor Strickland here (especially after the Taft administration), he is NOT God, so his pronouncement that he can deliver Ohio is a little bit premature - let''s wait ''til we see what the next few weeks bring, and how much momentum builds for Clinton or Obama, before we start "guaranteeing" a state''s votes.....

[gslaughter]

Ha Ha HA, LOL, Obama "we need change" Hillary "we need change"

We change the baby too but an hour later we get the same *****. LMAO

Posted by thgdriver at 01:12 PM : Jan 09, 2008


That''s funny...just about as funny as a president and his daddy (Bush Sr/Bush Jr) fighting the same war over and over...and as funny as a guy catching some other guy (Sadam) instead of the guy who from 911 (Bin Laden) Same old Republicans...same old ***!

[clovisbuford]

" Now I hope Obama runs as an independent if Hillary wins the Demonrat nod or visa versa. I hope they both win back and forth for another 48 states. Payback for 1992 is at hand." you are so right thgdriver.We need a continuation of republican policies .We need another war ,another front ,we are not stretched thin enough yet.We need the richest americans to continue to get the tax breaks while the middle class pick up the slack .We need more corporate power buying congress. We need more disaster response like Katrina , We need to double the deficit again in 8 years. We need even more costly health care and more uninsured.We need less civil rights and more torture in the name of "security".We need more corruption ala abramoff.We need to ignore global warming.

[obama1289]

Obama supporters check this video out:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=jPev5sEdTjg

[stochastic2]

Hussein Obama/Osama''s sultry smile and *** appeal is why women should never have been allowed to vote in the first place, let alone run for office. The giggly sexually depraved masses of jelly-brained women who support him don''t know and don''t care about his beliefs or ideals, they just think he''s hot. An American Flag hating muslim in the White House......I don''t think so. Not in this lifetime, I don''t care how much A-rab money flows into his campaign, he will only be president in his dreams.

[antoniof123]

Now I hope Obama runs as an independent if Hillary wins the Demonrat nod or visa versa. I hope they both win back and forth for another 48 states. Payback for 1992 is at hand.

Posted by thgdriver at 12:49 PM : Jan 09, 2008

Not going to happen both have already publicly stated that no matter who gets the nomination the will support.

[realpatriot1]

Don''t count on an Obama/Clinton ticket of any kind. They represent warring factions in the Democratic party(the crooked establishment and those who want to reform it).

If the powers that be in the Democratic party get their way and ram through Hillary Obam will take his 100 million and team up with Bloomberg''s billions and give the country a truly well financed and viable 3rd choice,

Hell will freeze over hefore Hitlery becomes President.

[samthetvcat]

"I think there are several dynamics at play here, and that''s why the polls could not predict the outcome last night in NH:
1. After Obama won in Iowa, people in NH, while enthusiastic about the Obama win, took a closer look at Obama and quickly became concerned that he is more style than substance.
2. Everyday we are hearing bad news about the economy, and people are focused less on the Iraq war, so Hillary''s "yes" vote for the war is not as important to the voters right now.
3. The economy woes are making people nostalgic for the better economic times under "The Clintons".
4. The Northeast has always been Clinton territory from the beginning.
5. The last few days it looked like the media and other candidates were devoted to ganging up on and tearing down Hillary, so a backlash developed. Women came to her rescue."
Posted by misands

Great summary - Also that tendency of ppl to say they''re voting for a black person to pollsters but not following through is apparently the only time polls are so wrong.

Is NV next? Hillary was leading the old polls by HUGE margins - like 2 to 1, but now that the score is even with both Barack and Hillary each winning a primary my gut says they''ll give the next one to Barack because Hillary''s just SO overpowering. If she wins two in a row she just takes on this aura of being unstoppable - very intimidating! :(

[tbweb]

The nightmare Presidential Ticket the Republicans don''''''''t want to see is; CLINTON/OBAMA or OBAMA/CLINTON, either way doesn''''''''t matter,

Posted by tbweb

Well, maybe you''''ll get your wish, just remember a year later when everyone is saying--Well, I did not vote for those two clowns"--And I ask "who did" I want to see both of your hands in the air! LOL

Posted by thgdriver at 01:08 PM : Jan 09, 2008,,,

Its not my wish, I was just making a point. Its still too early to pick anyone, we have a lot of campaigning to go! On the Republican side the nightmare Presidential Ticket would be McCain/Giuliani or Giuliani/McCain, that wouldn''t matter either. The only problem with this Ticket is that they both want to go after Iran and Americans are tired of War.

[thgdriver]

Ha Ha HA, LOL, Obama "we need change" Hillary "we need change"

We change the baby too but an hour later we get the same *****. LMAO