It's Not Change, Stupid
CBS's Meyer: "Change" Was Not The Force The Political Elite Thought It Was
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A Night Of Surprises
The New Hampshire primary turned out to be a night of comebacks. Hillary Clinton edged out Barack Obama and John McCain won over the Republicans. Karen Brown reports.
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Clinton Savors N.H. Win
Sen. Hillary Clinton tells Harry Smith that she made an incredible connection with New Hampshire voters and she's ready to keep her campaign rolling forward.
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Supporters cheer as Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., speaks at a rally, Monday, Jan. 7, 2008, in Concord, N.H. (AP)
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For all the breast-beating and soul-searching being performed by the political elite over why we so badly blew predicting Hillary Clinton’s New Hampshire resurrection, we actually blew something much bigger: understanding the central dynamic of the presidential election.
After Iowa, poll readers, pundits, Republican and Democratic candidates declared the voters wanted “change.” No matter what “change” actually is, no matter that “change” means different things to different people: “change” is what the voters want.
Barack Obama cornered the market on change. After Iowa, John Edwards wanted to get some market share as did Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and John McCain. Hillary stuck with experience. Contrarian pundits mocked Obama for pushing change without beef, unfairly.
The sorry truth is that “change” was merely a phantom conjured by the political elite - a nano-trend, a shorthand, a figment, a wild goose chase.
In 2008, there have been four elections with four winners: Obama, Clinton, Huckabee and McCain. Go ahead: pick an uber-theme that fits all these winners. It ain’t change.
Sure, Obama talks a lot about change and he had a big win. But he also talks about hope, leadership, health care and opportunity. And he also lost New Hampshire.
It was the Iowa exit polls that gave change mega-buzz. Among Democratic primary voters, the most coveted quality in a candidate was the capacity “bring about needed change.” A whopping 52 percent want change. In New Hampshire, it was the same but more so, with 54 percent opting for change in their multiple choice selections.
Well, use some common sense here. The quality that a candidate “can bring about needed change” can mean he/she will get out of Iraq to one voter. It can mean universal health care to another. Or cleaning up campaign finance, invading Iran, curing cancer or restoring the American Way.
In this context change is just a Rorschach test, not a political diagnosis. It is nearly meaningless.
This has happened before, often. After Bush's re-election in 2004, for example, it became instant conventional wisdom that "moral values" were the key to all politics. Strategists and commentators nagged the Democrats for not having good “moral values.” Republicans knew how to talk about “moral values” so they won.
It turned out that “moral values” were completely in the eye of the beholding exit poll answerer, just like “change” this year. Moral values didn’t equate with family values or Christian values. Lo and behold, moral values played absolutely no role in the 2006 mid-term elections that toppled the Republicans from control of Congress.
It would be very smart to get rid of the bogus change theme early in this election year before it perpetrates more muddy thinking.
The focus on a false “change” story, obviously, obscures deeper truths. Obviously, the victories of Obama, McCain and, to a slightly lesser degree, Huckabee, show that business-as-usual isn’t attractive to many voters and they are looking for a new cast of characters - and a new kind of character. But this isn’t a mega-trend, as Clinton’s win shows.
The dynamic to watch this year involves independent and swing voters, those creatures that we were told were extinct in hyper-polarized, red/blue politics in America. So far, 2008 has been the year of the independent voter.
We were told that there was no longer any middle - swing voters had disappeared... What's everybody talking about now? Independents.
Morris Fiorina, Political scientist"What's everybody talking about now? Independents. Obama is winning independents, McCain is winning independents. Independents can't figure out whether to vote for a 47-year-old liberal or a 71-year-old conservative. All they know is that they're tired of the choices they've had in recent elections,” said Fiorina.
In New Hampshire, 44 percent of Democratic primary voters and 37 percent of Republicans described themselves as independents. Twenty percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers said they were independent.
Fiorina’s point is that independent, swing voters never went away, they just had only highly partisan candidates to choose from. Unhappy with such choices, their votes were evenly divided between two bad options. This resulted in close elections. Analysts mistakenly said this meant America was polarized. It wasn’t. Politicians, activists and candidates were partisan and polarized. Most voters were not. They were pragmatic and open-minded.
These voters are looking for a home in 2008 and they actually have some interesting options. Sure, they want “change” from politicians they don’t like, who doesn’t? The deeper theme is that perhaps the myth of polarization is losing steam. A few candidates are doing what all candidates used to do in the days before culture war and wedge issues: running for the middle where most voters live.
Obama and McCain are appealing to independents. They are trying to use a style and vocabulary that isn’t knee-jerk partisan, that doesn’t demonize all opponents and that isn’t full of coded messages to the parties’ interest groups. It is a style of campaigning the country hasn’t seen for awhile. It may not prevail. So far, anti-polarizing campaigns have won two of four primaries.
The “change” narrative deserves an early funeral. But independent voters, the real silent minority, might commit some real political change this year.
E-mail questions, comments, complaints, arguments and ideas to Against the Grain. We will publish some of the interesting (and civil) ones, sometimes in edited form.
By Dick Meyer © MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 76 CommentsFact is that Obama and Hillary got about the same number of votes in a tiny, out of the way, state.
The media''s preening like it''s all about them kind of reminds of Bill Clinton.
http://www.youtube.com/wat
ch?v=qV6qAGigGYY
We are not only dealing with the theft of the election which CBSNBCABCFOXCNN is studiously ignoring but there is the question of no chain of custody for the ballots which obviates the value of a recount!!
THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN--THE MACHINES IN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE EVEN EASIER TO USE TO RIP OFF THE VOTERS!!
Whatever one might think of Obama--and I don''t think much of this War Pig in sheep''s clothing with his stable of CFR, Neo-Liberal, War Pig foreign policy advisors...his message of ''Change''...which includes a call for the invasion of Pakistan and not taking military aggression against Iran off the table--...he still should have all the votes counted that he got.
%u201CYou can%u2019t hit the girl%u201D.
The next 10 months is going to be nothing but more Political Correctness %u2013 you can%u2019t hit the girl. It will make Americans sick %u2013 the crying the whimpering the sniffling %u2013 barf.
The reason America needs a man to be President is very simple %u2013 this is a bare knuckle world of one thug bashing the brains out of others and that%u2019s exactly what nature had in mind for the male.
You can''t be a superpower with Political Correctness.
So let%u2019s see America squirm for 10 months not really wanting to address this issue - it%u2019s going to be fun to watch.
Well Dickie, putting aside the question as to whether any of the idiots running can break free of their corporate masters and formant "change". I would like to point out that 76% of the country feels it is on the wrong track. That statistic cannot be marginalized down to a "nano-trend, a shorthand, a figment, a wild goose chase".
Posted by Hwy71So
I liked this article. Remember that favorite line "it depends on what ''Is'' is? Well, now you have the meaning of what change is. I love it. Unless these dudes and dudettes, give us a real clear definition of what they mean by change, change is none other than just a verb.
What I didn''t like is what Bill Clintoid did to Obama. I''m no Obama fan, but it only shows how the Democrats regard the black community. To the Democrats, the democrats are just votes, not people. And the minute they step up tot he plate and declare themselves they get shot down. And quite frankly what is this article telling you right now? Isn''t it similiar to Willie''s "Obama and his Fairy Tales" commentary? Think about it. They hate for the black man to break free of the party. The Irony is that Obama''s in the party. Very interesting, indeed.
What I meant is to the Democrats, the black man...
This election process is being stretched out so thin that there''s NO break from nonstop campaign coverage.
Maybe the political machine is just making this so annoying t divert attention from all the economic bad news coming out; or maybe it''s just to turn our politics into another Brittany or Paris saga and BORE the nation into burnout on the subject and NOT voting.
Either way DON''T fall for the BS. The election system needs to be watched for fraud and manipulation and I''m GLAD to see at least SOME people are making an effort to make THIS election LESS of a RIGGED situation that sends the perpetrators to jail YEARS after the fact.
Keep up the GOOD WORK and for the rest of us PLEASE HELP by getting involved, watching the polls and holding Stalin''s favorite part of rigging an election - "those that COUNT the vote" accountable, transparent and with their feet to the fire if they even THINK about trying to misrepresent your vote.
They also left out the fact that he has come in a close second on both the Republican races referenced in this article. And, there have actually been 5 races this election. They conveniently left out the republican Wyoming race where Romney won handedly. (Wyoming is only 10% Mormon for those who don''t know, so this isn''t a "he is one of us" thing.)
I guess I''m just pointing out that the MSM, for whatever reason just can''t let Mr. Romney into the winner circle. Even if he is leading in delegates and has won a race they wont acknowledge even happened. You have to at least wonder about motive here.
OBAMA, WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY ? IN KENYA THEY ARE HAPPY TO KNOW ONE OF THEIR OWN BLOOD IS DOING WELL IN POLITICS, THAT IS ENOUGH . TO ME HE IS NO MORE THAN A FIFTH COLUMN EMBEDED IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY , IN OTHER WORDS A REPUBLICAN TROYAN HORSE.
It seems everyone, including most of us posters, want to blame the MEDIA when events aren''t to our liking. Frequently, we suggest the MEDIA has a hidden political agenda (which it occasionally does, but we put FAR too much emphasis on guessing what that agenda is).
The media''s main objective, like all corporate institutions, is to sell its product or service. Whether it''s the right-leaning owners or the slightly left-leaning writers/reporters/pundits, their motivation is, above all else, financial.
And they all know that the best way to achieve their goal is to report (or, sometimes create) CONFLICT or CONTROVERSY. That is what we, the readers/viewers, want to pay (directly or indirectly) for.
So lighten up on the media, folks. If you don''t like their product, stop paying attention! 98% of what they report is inconsequential anyway. In the time we save, we can do something nourishing and constructive with our lives.
Then there''s Ron Paul. Think about it.
I couldn''t be more pleased by the ''political elites'' embarrassment. The pontificating, pompous pundits need to back-off and let the process play itself out. The polls and the pundits are harmful to our election process. They both raise expectations, and encourage complacency.
Posted by oleander8 at 11:44 AM : Jan 10, 2008"
Bravo! Well put.
The pundits and media with their no-brainer polls are a joke. Stop posting foolish pre-election polls, stop with the juvenile "sound-bite" mentality of reporting, start doing your job! Just the facts please!
Posted by Hwy71So at 10:58 AM : Jan 10, 2008"
You''re an idiot. You''re still spouting that bull$hit "swiftboat" *** from ''04. Grow the f*&k up you pin-head.
People are not fooled by the " Change" word. Obama teamed up with Edwards to defeat Hillary, and they lost. So what has changed, its the gang mentality of men beating up on one single woman. What strength have they shown by this?
The old boy''s club is back and the fellas had to gang up on the one woman who represents leadership because they were too weak indivually to take her on.
Shows me how insecure they are. I don''t like Edwards, he kinda dragged his poor wife who was supposed to have cancer treatments along his campaign trail.
What was more important to him family values!! yeah right or his own political ambitions, he did not stop his campaign for one women ...his own wife...so how would he treat his opponent who happens to be a woman the same chauvaistic ..egotistical way.
Obama, has some shady real estate deals to explain, and he is sitting under Oprahs skirt, what a sissy.
He has a diploma with no experience, and now Kerry another loser is backing him. Hummm....that makes 2 losers. Hillary has the brains to run this country, not tweedle dumb and tweedle dee.
Edwards is accepting big bucks from his lawywers association and has had an affair, its in the news.
Kerry is a loser....so is Obama.
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Posted by Hwy71So at 07:46 AM : Jan 10, 2008
Yeah, and has anyone else noticed that so much of our news is no longer new? Lately, again and again I am hearing reports for the first time about something that happened 2 days earlier. Sup with that.
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Posted by ozilot at 11:40 AM : Jan 10, 2008
Let us hope that he doesn''t run independent, That would split the Republican vote and ensure another Clinton in office. Just like RP #1.
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Posted by nikosk1 at 11:54 AM : Jan 10, 2008
usa.gov
Hunter earned the Combat Infantryman''''''''s Badge and Bronze Star in Vietnam and demands that the U.S. Government keep its promises to Veterans. His efforts to provide tax relief for working families, protect Social Security, and promote strong family values earned him 100% ratings from Eagle Forum, the American Conservative Union, the Concerned Women of America, the Christian Coalition, and the Campaign for Working Families; a 92% from the American Conservative Union; and an A+ from the NRA.
Vote for Duncan Hunter.
Because of these comments, the Great Emperor feels that everyone out there would rather have 8 more years of "STAY THE COURSE" from the neocon Fascist Republicans than from the evil, cowardly Whimpo-crats. Eight more years of "STAY THE COURSE" would achieve most of the Great Emperor''s and the Fascist GOP''s objectives of complete destruction of the middle class, a worthless currency resulting in run-away inflation, oceans of debt, continual war, a disintegrating infrastructure, and continued huge profits for businesses and unimagined wealth for the elite.
So, let us continue to STAY THE COURSE!!!!!!!!
SIG HEIL, BUSH!!!!
What is the ''middle''? Is there such a thing. As you know, if you take a bunch of numbers and their average, none of them may equal the average.
So, is the middle, whatever that is, not satisfying to anyone?
Behold the rise of populism in America.
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Posted by NameVerified at 01:23 PM : Jan 10, 2008
Let us not forget Hilary''s famous quote from 1993 "WE ARE THE PRESIDENT", voting for Hilary is a two for one deal. Like she''d ever let Bill say word one during ''her'' presidency. Yikes!!!
How the hell can ANYONE know anything yet?? There have been 3, count them now, 3 states that have had caucus or a primary. That is not even 1% of the American public.
Idiots!! They make up nonsense about what they THINK we think and don''t comment at all on the FACTS of the voters.
There are only a couple of KNOWN FACTS at this point.
1. Turn out has been very high.
2. So far the rep race is wide open and the dem race is close.
That is it!
Now, why won''t your fellow media types ask some hard questions instead of pushing this stuff?
Are you that desperate to ask John Kerry who has lost once before, to support you?
Oh %u2026.. Sorry doesn%u2019t work!
Is that kind of the president you wanna be? Keep making WRONG CHOICES!
The media and the Washington political establishment is lashing out at the concept of change because they don''t want to change a thing. They lie when they say the people don''t want change-voters want change, special interests do not.
The candidate who best fills the vacuum between now and the election in November will win. It will be about change because staying the course is not an option.
He likes to assign each story a three point narrative with two discredited extremes and a powerful middle where he claims to hang out.
But his middle is always aligned with McCain or Bloomberg or some other right leaning and sort of elitist personality.
He makes a good argument that binary world views and conservative versus progressive models are usually wrong. He could even argue that they are sometimes dangerous.
But just once, I would like to see Meyer get off the fence and show some committment to something.
Posted by ClassicDoc at 02:21 PM : Jan 10, 2008--------------I see Ron Paul as the only true "centrist" candidate. When someones public servitude behaves according to what the Constitution and Bill of Rights says and votes true to their constituency. I see nothing in a claim against that person as being some kind of crook, kook,...you name it. When our rights that we retain by these great documents are twisted by someones pet interpretation, this results in the rights being slowly confiscated. This very deed is in fact UNCONSTITUTIONAL!.......The 9th. Amendment says,.....The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.......Which of the candidates own voting record adheres to this rule?
Total Votes New Hampshire
Clinton 110,550
Obama 102,883
McCain 86,802
Romney 73,806
Total votes Iowa
Obama 87,220
Edwards 72,980
Clinton 70,488
Huckabee 31,228
Sure, Democrat candidates are jumping ahead because America DOESN''T want change. Riiiiiight....
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