Why Clinton Won

Women, Labor Households And Low-Income Voters Bring N.Y. Senator N.H. Victory

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Sen. Hillary Clinton's victory in the New Hamshire Democratic primary.

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Hillary Clinton defied all expectations on Tuesday, winning the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. Despite predictions that Barack Obama was coasting to a strong victory in the state, Clinton held her own among late deciders, beating back the Obama surge and winning courtesy of a significant Granite State gender gap and support from other traditional wings of the Democratic Party.

The Coalitions

New Hampshire women went big for Clinton, supporting her 46 percent to 34 percent for Obama. And as 57 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, women were enough to make the difference. Among men, Obama turned the tables, beating Clinton 40 percent to 29 percent. In third place, John Edwards received 19 percent of the male vote and 15 percent of women's votes.

Clinton pulled together a traditional coalition of Democratic voters for this victory - labor households, voters with relatively low incomes and education, and, of course, women.

Union households, which make up one-fifth of the New Hampshire Democratic primary electorate, voted for Clinton 40 percent to 31 percent for Obama. Among voters with household incomes less than $50,000 a year, Clinton beat Obama by 15 points, and by 18 points among those with no more than a high school diploma.

Similarly, Clinton won the votes of self-described Democrats in this open party primary state. Among those who typically consider themselves Democrats she won 45 percent of the vote to 34 percent for Obama.

For Obama, the generation of new and young voters that propelled him to victory in the Iowa caucuses last week was not there in New Hampshire. While Obama won nearly half of voters who had never voted in a primary election before, these voters made up only 19 percent of the primary electorate.

And while Obama beat Clinton by 60 percent to 22 percent among the youngest voters - those 18 to 24 years old - his advantage among other voters under 40 was much slimmer than seen in Iowa.

Obama did win the independent vote in New Hampshire. He beat Clinton among those considering themselves independents by 10 points - 41 to 31 percent. The rest of Obama's support base in New Hampshire came from the more elite elements of the Democratic electorate. He won the vote of those in households making more than $100,000 a year 41 percent to 36 percent for Clinton. And he won voters with advanced educational degrees by 12 points.

Clinton stemmed the Obama tide in the last three days of the campaign in New Hampshire. While Clinton trailed by 15 points among voters who decided their vote sometime last week, she split the late-breaking vote with Obama- 36 percent and 37 percent respectively.

The Issues

Voters in the primary election were looking for a candidate with whom they agreed on the issues, rather than a candidate whose personal qualities appealed to them. This was likely a key to the Clinton victory.

Economic worry was high among Democratic voters. The top issue for primary voters was the economy, and among the 38 percent who chose it as the most important issue, Clinton beat Obama 44 to 35 percent. Fifty-eight percent said they were "very worried" about the direction of the economy in the next few years. And among the third of voters who said the economy is currently in "poor" shape, Clinton won by 13 points.

Voters most concerned with the war in Iraq - the second most important issue at 31 percent - preferred Obama by 9 points: 44 percent to 35 percent for Clinton. The candidates split voters most concerned with health care, who made up 27 percent of voters.

The Candidates

Voters in New Hampshire believed that Clinton was the candidate most qualified to be commander-in-chief, and that she would be the strongest leader. Voters were more likely to see Clinton as the strongest leader over Obama by 38 percent to 35 percent. And 38 percent said Clinton was the most qualified to be commander-in-chief, compared to only 26 percent who felt that way about Obama.

At the same time, Obama was the candidate primary voters believe was most likely to take them to the White House in November. Forty-four percent of primary voters said Obama would be most likely to beat the Republican nominee in November, compared to 35 percent who said Clinton would. They also felt he was the candidate most likely to unite the country if elected.

On honesty and trustworthiness, voters were divided. Thirty percent said Obama was the most honest and trustworthy, while 27 percent said Clinton was. On this measure, Edwards turned in his strongest performance - 21 percent of primary voters felt he was the most honest.

A majority - 54 percent - said they were looking for a candidate who could bring needed change to the country, and these voters went 55 percent for Obama. But in a race where issues rather than leadership dominated the voters' choices, this characteristic clearly was not enough.

The Shadow

While Clinton may have beaten the other current Democratic candidates, the exit poll shows she would not have beaten her own husband. When asked to choose between their candidate and Bill Clinton - were he allowed to run for a third term - 56 percent of Hillary's supporters chose Bill.

Poll results are based on a National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research. Interviews were conducted with 1,955 Republican primary voters as they entered polling stations around the state. The margin of error for the poll is + 2 percentage points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[lindacohen7]

Hillary Clinton Is the most intelligent woman in the History of America. It is the time for us to have an intelligent and educated president.
Go Hillary, You have my VOTE.

[gracianp]

The media gives Clinton and Obama 24/7 rockstar coverage, and HIDES the anti-war candidates like Dennis Kucinich, Ron Paul, and Mike Gravel from view, pretending they don''t exist so Americans will forget they are in the race. They are even excluded from debates during our primaries! Corporate vote-counters then "take care of the counting", thus the next corporatist candidates WILL reach the desired goal.
These include Clinton and Obama.

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries as it''s evaluated for its sincerity. She could always cry before every primary...

[erasmus6]

Posted by johnny_chaos at 09:51 PM : Jan 09, 2008

The reason YOU are not voting for her may have nothing to do with her being a woman but there are many that that IS the reason. I have read many posts over the past months that have said exactly that.

[annd2302]

eshelmon

Pumpkin or Dude, whichever, YOU need a lot of help............you just like to see your comments in print???? I will bet a months pay you are in the third grade!!!!!

Great job Hillary.
Sorry about your bad luck Obama, try again later.

[l8c6]

Anyone, male or female, who votes for a candidate based on a contrived event (such as HRC''''s phony tears) should not vote -- Posted by tuckerndfw

I agree, and anyone voting for someone due to the color of their skin shouldn''t vote either and that has been more in the news not due to the work of media but actual wealthy people of color in their endorsements and commentary.

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries as it''s evaluated for its sincerity. Unless of course she cries before every primary.

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries as it''s evaluated for its sincerity. Unless of course she cries before every primary.

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries as it''s evaluated for its sincerity. Unless of course she cries before every primary.

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries after the initial shock of her emotional display is evaluated for its sincerity. Unless of course she cries before every primary. And will other candidates start letting the tears flow? That would be fun to see...a cry off. Rudy better start crying now before it''s to late!

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries after the initial shock of her emotional display is evaluated for its sincerity. Unless of course she cries before every primary. And will other candidates start letting the tears flow? That would be fun to see...a cry off. Rudy better start crying now before it''s to late!

[eshelmon]

Why Clinton Won? Has to be voter fraud. Because clearly when polling shows us one thing and the actual voting produces different results the election was stolen.;)

Doesn''t matter if it was real or fake, the crying game worked in this primary. Wonder if will be a backlash on future primaries after the initial shock of her emotional display is evaluated for its sincerity by voters. Unless of course she cries before every primary. And will other candidates start letting the tears flow? That would be fun to see...a cry off. Rudy better start crying too before it''s to late.

[libra127]

"RIGGED VOTING MACHINES!"

Ah, the excuses of the sorry losers.

[agnim]

"Why Clinton Won"

RIGGED VOTING MACHINES!

Rage of the Clinton machine!

[johnny_chaos]

erasmus6 - seriously, you just cant see its not a gender issue. its hillary, the person and platform, history, (not BJ Bill - I think she stayed with him because they are friends and allies) etc. that she brings, its the thought of having another possum infestation in the white house. I mean, the clintons all look kind of like pogo. its cute, but no more possums in the white house please. anyone, actually, being from northern california, i like Pelosi. how about impeach the sitting administration and put her in? have a real progressive as a canidate, not republican date rape lite for a change. outsourcing, brought to you by the clintons.

[mikybinaz]

Sorry Johnny! Your post really is on the mark, as you are truly correct in the statement of voting for Hilary because she is a woman, is truly Sexist!

One thing that Hilary will never be accused of is being compassionate.

[erasmus6]

"Yes, i think she is a horrible b-i-t-c-h." posted by johnny_chaos

Hmmm, calling her a *** IS bringing S-E-X into it.

[erasmus6]

"That said, i dont think Hillary thinks for herself. she thinks whatever will get her elected, whatever the current political status quoe is." posted by johnny_chaos

Oh, you mean like the rest of them?

[usayesterday]

JUST IN:

BILL RICHARDSON DROPS OUT OF THE RACE! (reported by CNN)


NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Damm, all those stupid Hillary supporters who *think* she is the most qualified candidate... caused this to happen. They voted for her (in Iowa and New Hampshire), and they are going to be contributing to the destruction of this country just as the Bush supporters/voters have done in the past two presidential elections.

Aye! The country I once loved is disintegrating before my eyes!

[johnny_chaos]

mikybinaz how can you even imagine something like that? talk about a buzz killer...