Why McCain Won

Late-Deciding Voters, Republicans Unhappy With Bush Give Arizona Senator N.H. Win

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Sen. John's McCain's victory in the New Hampshire GOP primary.

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John McCain claimed victory in New Hampshire with a late surge of support and the votes of Republican primary voters dissatisfied with the Bush administration. Moderates and independents were a substantial portion of his base.

Mitt Romney's second place finish was fueled by more traditional Republicans - conservatives and those who were positive about the Bush administration.

A 57 percent majority of John McCain's support in the primary came from voters who decided whom to support within the past week and a half. Among Romney supporters, in contrast, 53 percent decided earlier than that.

A majority of late deciders expressed negative feelings towards the Bush administration, perhaps explaining their support for McCain, the Republican Party maverick. Among those who were either angry or dissatisfied with the Bush administration, 40 percent voted for McCain, compared to only 25 percent for Romney.

Romney's support came more from the Republican base, in contrast. Among the 49 percent of primary voters who expressed positive feelings towards the Bush administration, Romney received 36 percent of the vote to 33 percent for McCain.

The contest divides neatly by voter ideology. Thirty-five percent of primary voters described themselves as moderates, and McCain won 44 percent of their vote. Romney, on the other hand, won 38 percent of conservative Republicans, compared to 31 percent for McCain. (Conservatives made up 54 percent of GOP primary voters.)

GOP voters were torn over the most important issue facing the country. Thirty-one percent said the economy, 25 percent the war in Iraq, 22 percent illegal immigration and 18 percent terrorism. McCain handily carried all of these groups with the exception of those who believe illegal immigration to be the most important issue. They gave Romney the edge over McCain by a margin of 53 percent to 20 percent.

Given the choice between cutting taxes and reducing the budget deficit, Republicans chose the budget deficit 53 percent to 44 percent. Among those wanting taxes cut, Romney beat McCain 36 percent to 27 percent, but among those who prefer cutting the deficit, McCain beat Romney 47 percent to 26 percent.

On more personal ground, all of the Republican candidates are viewed positively, with the exception of Ron Paul. Fifty-six percent of GOP primary voters rated Paul unfavorably. All of the other candidates are rated favorably by around 6 in 10 voters. McCain has the most positive ratings at 75 percent.

When voters were asked about a host of important candidate characteristics - electability, leadership and ability to be commander-in-chief - pluralities chose McCain as the top candidate on each.

Forty percent said McCain was the most likely to beat the Democratic candidate in November. Forty-three percent said he was the most qualified as commander-in-chief, and 40 percent chose him as the strongest leader.

In a cautious note for McCain, a substantial portion of his voters supported him with reservations. Forty-five percent of his supporters said they like him, but with reservations. Only 33 percent of Romney's supporters had reservations about him.

Mike Huckabee, the winner in last week's Iowa caucuses finished a distant third in New Hampshire - a much more secular state. The core of his Iowa support was not available to him in the Granite state.

Only 22 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters call themselves evangelicals, compared to 60 percent of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa. And only 14 percent of primary voters said they cared "a great deal" about whether a candidate shares their religious beliefs, while 36 percent of Iowa caucus attendees felt that way.

Poll results are based on a National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison Media Research. Interviews were conducted with 1,520 Republican primary voters as they entered polling stations around the state. The margin of error for the poll is + 2 percentage points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[mceades]

As John McCain''s profile rises among his Republican rivals, his close and deep relationships with lobbyists are certain to haunt him despite his carefully-crafted image as an "independent" and a "maverick." In an election year charged with anger at Washington insiders, McCain is the ultimate insider, with more lobbyists working on his staff, advising him, or raising funds for his campaign than any of his rivals. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis is a former lobbyist who has represented major telecom interests, with which McCain''s dealings as a member of the Senate Commerce Committee have drawn particular concern (These include actions by McCain in 2003-2004 favoring Cablevision Systems Corporation while soliciting $200,000 in contributions from Cablevision for his "Reform Institute."). McCain''s senior adviser is Charles Black of lobbying firm BKSH & Associates, which has also represented telecom interests as well as drug companies and defense contractors, among others. While most candidates deal with lobbyists to some degree, McCain outdeals them all.

See Washington Post, 12/31/07:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/30/AR2007123002848.html

[mceades]

As John McCain''s profile rises among his Republican rivals, his close and deep relationships with lobbyists are certain to haunt him despite his carefully-crafted image as an "independent" and a "maverick." In an election year charged with anger at Washington insiders, McCain is the ultimate insider, with more lobbyists working on his staff, advising him, or raising funds for his campaign than any of his rivals. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis is a former lobbyist who has represented major telecom interests, with which McCain''s dealings as a member of the Senate Commerce Committee have drawn particular concern (These include actions by McCain in 2003-2004 favoring Cablevision Systems Corporation while soliciting $200,000 in contributions from Cablevision for his "Reform Institute."). McCain''s senior adviser is Charles Black of lobbying firm BKSH & Associates, which has also represented telecom interests as well as drug companies and defense contractors, among others. While most candidates deal with lobbyists to some degree, McCain outdeals them all.

See Washington Post, 12/31/07:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/30/AR2007123002848.html

[mceades]

As John McCain''s profile rises among his Republican rivals, his close and deep relationships with lobbyists are certain to haunt him despite his carefully-crafted image as an "independent" and a "maverick." In an election year charged with anger at Washington insiders, McCain is the ultimate insider, with more lobbyists working on his staff, advising him, or raising funds for his campaign than any of his rivals. McCain campaign manager Rick Davis is a former lobbyist who has represented major telecom interests, with which McCain''s dealings as a member of the Senate Commerce Committee have drawn particular concern (These include actions by McCain in 2003-2004 favoring Cablevision Systems Corporation while soliciting $200,000 in contributions from Cablevision for his "Reform Institute."). McCain''s senior adviser is Charles Black of lobbying firm BKSH & Associates, which has also represented telecom interests as well as drug companies and defense contractors, among others. While most candidates deal with lobbyists to some degree, McCain outdeals them all.

See Washington Post, 12/31/07:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/30/AR2007123002848.html

[gingerparti]

NH voted on both the Democrat and Republican sides with the candidates who, in their minds, contradicted the Bush administration the most. It was a pathetic attempt to turn back the clock to 2000 when McCain won the state and HRC was younger and basking in her husband''s staunch popularity. So many liberals and Independents saw these two candidates - John McCain and HRC - as the missed opportunities for a better and Bush-less world. They misjudged these old Washington insiders who are anything but wise from their careers on the Hill. These are politicians who were "changed by Washington" but NH was too maudlin to see it when they cast their votes.

[wendy731]

Hurrah, for the REPUBLICIAN BASE. Romney gets his strength from the true conservatives. He is the real conservative of the Republician party and that has shown in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His votes always come from those who have studied the issues long before the day to vote and recognize the true conservative. Romney has a platform that is strong....strong military, strong families and strong economy and limited government involvement. He has experience implementing these principles because he believes them and his life reflects the values these principles represent. Again I say good for you REAL Republicians who are voting on issues, not personality, religion, or section of the country. Romney will bring enormous change to Washington and it will be reminiscent of the the great changes brought about by the Founding Fathers.

Go Mitt!

[shellyblake]

McCain may have done OK, but he''s got a lot of competition coming up in Arizona! Did you know that Arizona has more candidates on the ballot than any other state? Take a look at a real alternative at
projectwhitehouse.wordpress.com/ These guys are all about change!

[bizzzz-2009]

MCCAIN IS CLEARLY A MAN WHO HAS EARNED A SHOT A THE PRESIDENCY- MORE SO THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE. HE HAS AN EXPERIENCE OF PERFORMING UNDER DIRE CERCUMSTANCES THAT NO OTHER CANDIDATE HAS. I JUST WISH HE WOULDNT HAVE SHOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT WITH HIS AWFUL IMMIGRATION STANCE.

COULD SOMEBODY TELL ME ONE THING OBAMA HAS DONE WHILE HE''S BEEN IN OFFICE (BESIDES LOOK AND SOUND GOOD)?

[mudrose-2009]

I would have thought that the combination of McCain-Feingold & McCain-Kennedy would have been sufficient to seal his fate. I guess republicans and independents in NH have short memories and attention spans.

Guess they don''''t call it the Granite State for nothing. THey are as dumb as a chunk of granite.

Posted by Infidel_Us

Actually it''s not so bad when you think about it. The man does have integrity. McCain/Feingold was the pits and, yes, you''re right about McCain/Kennedy too. But I think the population at large is looking for someone with moral fiber. Huckabee was Iowa''s answer and McCain is NH''s. But the field is wide open and we have 48 more states to go. NH was always favorable to McCain and the Clintoid had to at least win one.

[mudrose-2009]

Considering all things in the past record--Why would anyone vote for a Republican. The dollar has lost approximately 40% of it''''s value, a barrel of oil has increased from $22+ to $100, the national debt has increased 60%, after 1758 days in Iraq we have lost over 4000 of our young soldiers, over 28,000 have been wounded--of the wounded over 5,000 have horrible, disabling injuries, our image in the world has gone south, and we are now in a recession. Want more of the same????
Posted by simonsez40

And once the Dimnowits get a hold of the populace they will tax them to death, bring us into recession
kill industry and put the entire country in reverse and on welfare. The only thing the Repubs did was no limit their spending. The Dimnowits on the other hand will spend ad infinitium. Oh, but they''ll be sure they tax you for every penny.

[infidel_us]

I would have thought that the combination of McCain-Feingold & McCain-Kennedy would have been sufficient to seal his fate. I guess republicans and independents in NH have short memories and attention spans.

Guess they don''t call it the Granite State for nothing. THey are as dumb as a chunk of granite.