Analysis: Mrs. Comeback Kid & Obama's Wave

CBS's Dick Meyer Says Change Isn't All It Was Cracked Up To Be

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com Editorial Director Dick Meyer.

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Hillary Clinton wasn't just the underdog in New Hampshire. After Barack Obama's Iowa win, she was written off - by the pollsters, by the pundits and by her own campaign staff. At times, Senator Clinton herself seemed resigned and dispirited.

But the voters of New Hampshire hadn't written Clinton off at all. With drama worthy of New Hampshire's flamboyant political history, Senator Clinton repeated the epic comeback that sent her husband on his way to the White House in 1992. It was a squeaker, but it was a win.

And on her way to Clinton Comeback II, Hillary Clinton made some history by becoming the first woman to win a presidential primary in America.

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Complete New Hampshire returns

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And what of the Obama wave? Clinton strategists say it crested and has turned. They believe if they had more time after Iowa, Clinton's slender margin of victory in New Hampshire would have been even much wider.

So is Hillary Clinton the front-runner, the "inevitable" winner, once again? Probably not. She won New Hampshire by just a hair. The next crucial contest is South Carolina, where roughly half of the Democratic primary voters are African-American. And then there's the de facto national primary, Super Duper Tuesday, on February 5.

John Edwards finished a distant third in New Hampshire, but is likely to stay in the race at least through South Carolina, the state where he was born.

There are some big, perhaps huge, questions to be answered after the New Hampshire stunner. Why were the polls so wrong? What role did race play in New Hampshire, one of the whitest states in the nation? What role will race play in the states ahead? Do voters want change Obama-style or not?

Perhaps most of all, did Senator Clinton's teary moment the day before the election somehow turn the tide? Was it a Muskie Moment in reverse? Was it a glimpse of something unscripted and tender in the American Iron Lady that changed minds and last-minute votes?

For Democrats, yesterday's conventional wisdom is today's malarkey.

Yesterday, every wise head between Washington and Manchester knew the voters wanted capital-c Change. Today, they say experience and electability carried the day.

Yesterday there were rumors from the Clinton camp that she would skip South Carolina and the little-noticed Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19 to focus her cash and campaign bandwidth on the Super Duper Tuesday states.

Yesterday, everyone from John Edwards to Mitt Romney to John McCain was swiping Obama's change and hope melody. Not today.

Two days after Hillary Clinton's third place finish in Iowa, her top pollster and strategist Mark Penn wrote a memo titled, "Where Is The Bounce?" Penn swiped the line Walter Mondale used so effectively against 1984's candidate of "change," Gary Hart, to argue that Obama wasn't getting much of a bounce from his Iowa win in New Hampshire. "New Hampshire voters are fiercely independent," Penn wrote. "They will make their own decisions about who to support." And they have.

After many public polls showed Obama with a wide lead, the grapevine said Penn's job was in danger. Presumably his job is safe for now and he's having the last laugh. "As voters began to see the choice they have and heard Hillary speak from her heart they came back to her," Penn said Tuesday night.

Senator Clinton herself resorted to Mondale's gag line repeatedly as she tried to derail Senator Obama in New Hampshire. Complaining that Obama's message of hope and change was dangerously content-free, Clinton kept asking "Where's the beef?" It was a tactic that didn't get rave reviews among the punditocracy, but it seems to have played differently with the voters.

Now the question is simple: Is there any way Barack Obama can bounce back? Certainly it has been amply proven that in Campaign '08, it's wiser to ask questions than predict outcomes.

In New Hampshire, Clinton benefited from a huge gender gap, grabbing 47 percent of the female vote compared to 34 percent for Obama. In Iowa, there was no deep divide between the sexes.

In both New Hampshire and Iowa, Clinton enjoyed overwhelming support from voters over 64.

Obama vowed to attract young voters, new voters and independents to his campaign. So far, he has delivered. In Iowa, Obama snared 57 percent of the 17-29 crowd and 42 percent of the 30-44 bracket. He took 41 percent of the voter among first-time caucus attendees. And among that 20 percent of the caucus-goers who describe themselves as independent, Obama beat Clinton 41 -17.

In New Hampshire, 61 percent of the voters between 18-24 went for Obama. Forty-three percent of Democratic primary voters actually call themselves independent and 43 percent went with Obama compared to 31 percent for Clinton and 18 percent for Edwards. But that wasn't enough for Obama this time.

Obama's support in New Hampshire was substantially mor eelite than Clinton's. He did especially well with college graduates and people whose incomes were over $100,000.

Given the dramatics so far, there could be several more shifts in momentum before South Carolina. And Florida comes right after South Carolina. But because of a party dispute over the primary date, the candidates have basically agreed not to campaign there. So it isn't clear that Florida will have any impact on the momentum of the race.

"Obama is surfing right now, and like a lot of movement candidates, you either ride the wave or get knocked off the board," said Democratic media consultant Will Robinson. "Is there time for Clinton to get people to step back and say, 'We're all excited about it, but is this the guy we really want to be president?' I don't know whether she has the capacity or the resources to get people to take a step back."

Clinton seemed to raise those doubts in the nick of time to win New Hampshire. Her campaign now has much more time to nurture questions about Obama.

"We always go through this cycle of infatuation, then extreme examination, and then tearing them down," Robinson said. Clinton's campaign is hoping the tear down of Obama has begun.

But Obama still has a potent formula. "His support comes from Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans and that kind of bipartisanship is a very refreshing change," said freshmen Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), an Iraq war veteran from a rural part of Pennsylvania who endorsed Obama early on.

"Barack Obama is inspiring and motivating voters across this country, and that includes districts like mine where Republicans outnumber Democrats but there are also a lot of independent voters," Murphy said.

But Senator Clinton is holding on to the party's core, women and seniors. Still, she has learned a few tricks about "change." At her concession speech in Iowa, Clinton was surrounded by party elders like Madeleine Albright and Wesley Clark. A sea of bright, young and unknown faces provided her backdrop for New Hampshire's victory oration.

One clear loser in New Hampshire: conventional wisdom. R.I.P.

[erasmus6]

"Thanks for the response, but you didn''''t answer the most pertinent part of my question which was: Does
Canada have an official, national or provincial stated language." posted by nottellin1

Is there something you aren''t getting??

The official language for Canada is FRENCH AND ENGLISH!

[lindacohen7]

Obama,
Are you that desperate to ask John Kerry who has lost once before, to support you?
Oh %u2026.. Sorry doesn%u2019t work!

Is that kind of the president you wanna be? Keep making WRONG CHOICES!

[nottellin1]

In the province of Quebec, the people speak French. Throughout the rest of Canada the main language is English. We of course have people that speak other languages as well but the main language is English.

All product packaging is in English and French.



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Posted by erasmus6 at 02:54 AM : Jan 10, 2008

Thanks for the response, but you didn''t answer the most pertinent part of my question which was: Does
Canada have an official, national or provincial stated language.

[erasmus6]

nottellin1

In the province of Quebec, the people speak French. Throughout the rest of Canada the main language is English. We of course have people that speak other languages as well but the main language is English.

All product packaging is in English and French.

[erasmus6]

chitown639

"To call the era in the U.S. when blacks werent allowed to use the same facilities as whites ''''the good old days'''', is racist."


Maybe you should get a brain and some glasses. If you look back at the post, you will see that it wasn''t me that said this, but tuckerndfw.


"Referring to Senator Obama as a ''''boy''''..."

I see you are also an idiot like tucker. I never referred to him as "boy". I said he LOOKED like a LITTLE BOY. An IMMATURE, LITTLE BOY. You know exactly what I meant but you and the idiot choose to see it that way. Hmmm, I wonder what that makes you? If you choose to see it as a racist comment, go ahead. I am not a racist but I know in your country there are MANY.

[tibu987]

Yep, those tears were good for thousands more of women''''s votes.
Not that her lack of qualifications came into play.
All that experience Hillary claims to have via osmosis from being First Lady.
Sorry, but tears are not allowed in the Oval Room.

Are those women so naive that they can overlook Hillary''''s qualifications and vote for her simply because she is woman, wow!

Did they believe the bs that eight years as First Lady somehow translated intro presidential qualifications. Nor does the luxury of having traveled to 82 countries equate into qualifications for the highest office in the world.
This win, albeit a temporary gain, is beyond the realm of reality and it may be the first time in my old life that I will have to vote for a Republican which, of course, is just what the Republicans hoped for if Hillary would win the Democratic nomination.

[nottellin1]

yet it appears I''''ve attracted a loyal following of groupies who seem to be unable to resist doing whatever necessary (usually yelling insults) to get my attention.

Don''''t ask me, I don''''t know why. . . all I know is they are lunatics. . .


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Posted by tuckerndfw at 08:10 PM : Jan 09, 2008

I''ve seen you post many times and I don''t always agree but I''ve never been offended. Arent you flattered by how much your Groupies care? No teary moment?

[nottellin1]

Hey erasmus6:

I have completely off topic question for you. I know people speak English & French in CDA. I''m curious if Canada has an official, national or provincial language? I''d also like to know if all or just some your product advertising and packaging is in English, French & and Spanish.

[nottellin1]

How the most divisive president (other than wartime presidents) in US history became known as a great or even good president is beyond me. If he had been so great, Al Gore would be just now leaving office. . .

Oh, well.


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Posted by tuckerndfw at 07:54 PM : Jan 09, 2008

You and I are definetly dancing to the same tune tonight. Completely agree.

[erasmus6]

Tell me tucker, does it ever make you wonder why so many people, both men and women, think you are an idiot. There isn''t any time that you post, that I have seen, where most people have a problem with what you say.

[erasmus6]

"I have absolutely no idea why these lunatics are stalking me. I am a casual user on this website who comes & goes..." posted by tuckerndfw

He comes and goes alright but when he''s here he usually posts non-stop for like a hundred pages, yakking about bimbos and victims. And whenever he does he usually has people attacking him because hi is an ignorant ****** and says the most stupid things and he repeats himself over and over and over.


"What about the video I made just for you?(slapping jt on google videos)" posted by ******

I told you before unless it shows blood and guts (yours) and you hitting the floor and can''t get up, it just isn''t going to do.



"Does this mean we aren''''t going to Vegas this weekend like we''''d planned?" posted by the idiot

I would rather spend a weekend with DONNIE or dougandslug or whatever he is calling himself today, than YOU.:)

[erasmus6]

Posted by tuckerndfw at 07:46 PM : Jan 09, 2008

I didn''t refer to him as BOY. I said he looks and sounds like a little boy. There is a difference. I think that only a racist would think that is what I was referring to.

[erasmus6]

"I have absolutely no reason to lie and do not have a reputation on this board for lying." posted by tuckerndfw

You have a reputation of being a obsessive, mental case. He hates woman and can not tolerate anyone being a "VICTIM". I am surprised that his favorite word BIMBO hasn''t shown up in his posts here. OR maybe it has an I haven''t seen it yet.


Posted by libra127 at 04:56 PM : Jan 09, 2008

My lunatic ex-wife is a Libra (Oct 15) posted by tuckerndfw

There is another of tucker''s problems, he associates every woman with his wife. I told him once that I used to make dream catchers for the First Nations and he flipped his frickin'' lid because his wife also made dream catchers, so therefore I was just like her. Oh yeah and there was also the fact that I am Irish and she is too.

This guy is a SICKIE.


Oh yeah and one other thing, he is supposedly an ex-cop and will defend them to the bitter end, no matter what.

[denn034]

The media was on McCain''s and slick Hilly''s side so, their winning made sense.

[nottellin1]

53% of the people in NH who voted for her claimed they would rather vote for Bill. . . even people who vote for her don''''t like her.


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Posted by tuckerndfw at 06:23 PM : Jan 09, 2008

Sadly the "wish I could vote for Bill" sentiment may actually end up electing Hilary. After all who can forget right after Bill took over, Hil was running around saying "we are tyhe President". Oh wow, I guess she believed that for 8 years, even though she couldn''t say it, and that is where all her experience comes from. You could not pay me enough to vote for her though. Bill is probably already saying "we the Prez", I wonder if either one of them remember the scandal when Hil said it in 1993.

[erasmus6]

"You should apply for membership in the KKK." posted by tuckerndfw


So let me get this straight, because I think he looks like a little boy, therefore I am a racist and should apply for membership in the KKK?

Like I have told you many times before you need mental help.

[realpatriot1]

Back from the brink and the crocodile tears to the same arrogant pig who thinks a Coronation is her birthright.

[deemsnyd]

Now I''m done with this, like I said earlier, if anyone wonders how we got so far off topic of this article, you would have to go back a few pages and see how it jumped the track. I started it because someone accused tucker of hating women(in regard to Hillary)I simply told them "if they only knew", etc...
my apologies.

[deemsnyd]

And for the record, I don''t agree with the women out there who change their minds and then cry rape because they feel bad afterward. I''m not even talking about the women who start and then decide to stop at some point, even though they should be allowed to do so. My pasts postings show that I am talking about something else entirely. Tucker''s past posts show that he is talking about something else entirely as well.

[deemsnyd]

That''''s really funny coming from a member of a gang of lunatics - pedophiles (or one person using several aliases) who routinely attempt to use me as their verbal punching bag.

Posted by tuckerndfw at 06:06 PM : Jan 09, 2008

You say that rape is simple assualt. I say it is much more serious. How does that make me the pedophile? At least I can "use you as my verbal punching bag" without using low class, four letter words. How does thinking that you take rape too lightly make us lunatics? Oh, and I''m not one person using several aliases. Why wouldn''t you think that several people, not just me, would disagree with your view.