Jan. 8, 2008
Analysis: Mrs. Comeback Kid & Obama's Wave
CBS's Dick Meyer Says Change Isn't All It Was Cracked Up To Be
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Hillary Clinton wasn't just the underdog in New Hampshire. After Barack Obama's Iowa win, she was written off - by the pollsters, by the pundits and by her own campaign staff. At times, Senator Clinton herself seemed resigned and dispirited.
But the voters of New Hampshire hadn't written Clinton off at all. With drama worthy of New Hampshire's flamboyant political history, Senator Clinton repeated the epic comeback that sent her husband on his way to the White House in 1992. It was a squeaker, but it was a win.
And on her way to Clinton Comeback II, Hillary Clinton made some history by becoming the first woman to win a presidential primary in America.
Complete New Hampshire returns
And what of the Obama wave? Clinton strategists say it crested and has turned. They believe if they had more time after Iowa, Clinton's slender margin of victory in New Hampshire would have been even much wider.
So is Hillary Clinton the front-runner, the "inevitable" winner, once again? Probably not. She won New Hampshire by just a hair. The next crucial contest is South Carolina, where roughly half of the Democratic primary voters are African-American. And then there's the de facto national primary, Super Duper Tuesday, on February 5.
John Edwards finished a distant third in New Hampshire, but is likely to stay in the race at least through South Carolina, the state where he was born.
There are some big, perhaps huge, questions to be answered after the New Hampshire stunner. Why were the polls so wrong? What role did race play in New Hampshire, one of the whitest states in the nation? What role will race play in the states ahead? Do voters want change Obama-style or not?
Perhaps most of all, did Senator Clinton's teary moment the day before the election somehow turn the tide? Was it a Muskie Moment in reverse? Was it a glimpse of something unscripted and tender in the American Iron Lady that changed minds and last-minute votes?
For Democrats, yesterday's conventional wisdom is today's malarkey.
Yesterday, every wise head between Washington and Manchester knew the voters wanted capital-c Change. Today, they say experience and electability carried the day.
Yesterday there were rumors from the Clinton camp that she would skip South Carolina and the little-noticed Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19 to focus her cash and campaign bandwidth on the Super Duper Tuesday states.
Yesterday, everyone from John Edwards to Mitt Romney to John McCain was swiping Obama's change and hope melody. Not today.
Two days after Hillary Clinton's third place finish in Iowa, her top pollster and strategist Mark Penn wrote a memo titled, "Where Is The Bounce?" Penn swiped the line Walter Mondale used so effectively against 1984's candidate of "change," Gary Hart, to argue that Obama wasn't getting much of a bounce from his Iowa win in New Hampshire. "New Hampshire voters are fiercely independent," Penn wrote. "They will make their own decisions about who to support." And they have.
After many public polls showed Obama with a wide lead, the grapevine said Penn's job was in danger. Presumably his job is safe for now and he's having the last laugh. "As voters began to see the choice they have and heard Hillary speak from her heart they came back to her," Penn said Tuesday night.
Senator Clinton herself resorted to Mondale's gag line repeatedly as she tried to derail Senator Obama in New Hampshire. Complaining that Obama's message of hope and change was dangerously content-free, Clinton kept asking "Where's the beef?" It was a tactic that didn't get rave reviews among the punditocracy, but it seems to have played differently with the voters.
Now the question is simple: Is there any way Barack Obama can bounce back? Certainly it has been amply proven that in Campaign '08, it's wiser to ask questions than predict outcomes.
In New Hampshire, Clinton benefited from a huge gender gap, grabbing 47 percent of the female vote compared to 34 percent for Obama. In Iowa, there was no deep divide between the sexes.
In both New Hampshire and Iowa, Clinton enjoyed overwhelming support from voters over 64.
Obama vowed to attract young voters, new voters and independents to his campaign. So far, he has delivered. In Iowa, Obama snared 57 percent of the 17-29 crowd and 42 percent of the 30-44 bracket. He took 41 percent of the voter among first-time caucus attendees. And among that 20 percent of the caucus-goers who describe themselves as independent, Obama beat Clinton 41 -17.
In New Hampshire, 61 percent of the voters between 18-24 went for Obama. Forty-three percent of Democratic primary voters actually call themselves independent and 43 percent went with Obama compared to 31 percent for Clinton and 18 percent for Edwards. But that wasn't enough for Obama this time.
Obama's support in New Hampshire was substantially mor eelite than Clinton's. He did especially well with college graduates and people whose incomes were over $100,000.
Given the dramatics so far, there could be several more shifts in momentum before South Carolina. And Florida comes right after South Carolina. But because of a party dispute over the primary date, the candidates have basically agreed not to campaign there. So it isn't clear that Florida will have any impact on the momentum of the race.
"Obama is surfing right now, and like a lot of movement candidates, you either ride the wave or get knocked off the board," said Democratic media consultant Will Robinson. "Is there time for Clinton to get people to step back and say, 'We're all excited about it, but is this the guy we really want to be president?' I don't know whether she has the capacity or the resources to get people to take a step back."
Clinton seemed to raise those doubts in the nick of time to win New Hampshire. Her campaign now has much more time to nurture questions about Obama.
"We always go through this cycle of infatuation, then extreme examination, and then tearing them down," Robinson said. Clinton's campaign is hoping the tear down of Obama has begun.
But Obama still has a potent formula. "His support comes from Democrats, Independents and even some Republicans and that kind of bipartisanship is a very refreshing change," said freshmen Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.), an Iraq war veteran from a rural part of Pennsylvania who endorsed Obama early on.
"Barack Obama is inspiring and motivating voters across this country, and that includes districts like mine where Republicans outnumber Democrats but there are also a lot of independent voters," Murphy said.
But Senator Clinton is holding on to the party's core, women and seniors. Still, she has learned a few tricks about "change." At her concession speech in Iowa, Clinton was surrounded by party elders like Madeleine Albright and Wesley Clark. A sea of bright, young and unknown faces provided her backdrop for New Hampshire's victory oration.
One clear loser in New Hampshire: conventional wisdom. R.I.P.
By Dick Meyer
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Complete New Hampshire returns



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See all 190 CommentsPolling certainly has its limits - especially when the population that needs to be polled is unpredictable or misjudged.
That may have been the case this time.
I gather that a significant number of voters actually registered on the spot.
News folks would be well advised to spend more time covering the positions of the candidates and less time covering the horserace.
s will have a field day, and the stock market will surge with new confidence in this tattered Terrwar economy. McCain, and other Republicans might as well forget November. The Comeback Gal will energize the Democrats to push for Impeachment to show the American people the difference between unsubstantiated Impeachments over a ridiculous *** issue, compared to the wanton murder of Thousands of Iraqis, to the lie about going to War, and having no WMD, to a new inquiry to 911, and the anthrax attacks, and getting a conviction of Impeachment on the guys who really caused this mess to our country to begin with. Vendetta Impeachment? Nonsense! Its called accountability, and legitimacy. She was lied to about the war, and many Americans were duped too, but this will change when Hillary announces her support for Impeachment.
Perhaps because, as always, the pollsters cherry pick the respondents that are most likely to give answers that support the agenda of the pollsters. They have frequently taken polls on Bush''s war, from an area known to be full of neo con war worshipers, (like Simi Valley, Ca.), then publishing the results as "the opinion of the American people".
As for Obama, the writer implies, again wrongly, that "Black" voters will vote for Obama simply because he is "Black", or that NH voted for Clinton because she is "white". These assumptions will in reality, only account for about 10 to 15% of the voters in each category.
The writer''s failure to understand this suggests that he or she still hasn''t seen the faint rays of the new day dawning, and thus still lives in an older day whose midnight has passed.
If a pollster wishes to truly conduct an impartial poll, they should not limit themselves only to eligible voters in selected areas, because the prevailing mood of all Americans, not just a few "eligibles", is what influences the overall outcome of an election.
Let me add why did the Media and the Left savagely and viciously attack a candidate for President of the United States as they did Senator Clinton and attempt to anoint their own choice placing the crown clearly on Obamas head denying us our vote and who would have succeeded other than the safe guard of NHiets paying really close attention and being diligent in their charge for our country. Thank You NH of course but what recourse other than the obvious do we the People have against these media conglomerates acting in unionism to undermine our elections.
And why are you asking if it is Obama change the county wants, the answer is NO ... look at 2006 those Dems that were elected they were in the center not lefty darlings who won, they were hard working pragmatic wonks who would govern for all thats the change we want not personailites.
AHHHHHH hello dummies the women in Iowa and NH would naturally be different check income for example education maybe.
Yeah, and those same wise heads said Obama couldn''t win in Iowa - until it happened. The good news is that no matter which of the Democrats becomes President, we get change. A win-win, you might say.
Great comment brianbwb - one thing you can''t count on in this race due to the huge numbers of new voters, and that''s the pundits and their "conventional wisdom".
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Posted by NameVerified at 12:13 AM : Jan 09, 2008
Yeah well tonight proved the Middle who want fair ethical honest good governance are engaged and kicking patoot and there are more of us than you people on the fringe, we have had enough of your puppet weak candidates and your divisive hate.
That''s the second time I''ve seen that written by you, and I still disagree. Jon Tester won Nevada. Jim Webb beat out incumbent George Allen in Virginia. Claire McCaskill won in Missouri. Sherrod Brown won in Ohio. It''s true that there were some Red Dog Dem wins, but most of the folks who won in ''06 are Progressives, not centrists. I agree on one thing though, they are definitely working for the change we want!
Well, if the Neocons don''t like her, that''s the first reason to consider voting for her, ain''t it? Of course the fact that in Iowa the third place winner - Hillary - still beat out top place Republican Huckabee in votes is something to consider as well.
Congratulations Democrats, looks like the party''s just starting!
*** Meyer lies for Clinton. how precious he is. He carries water for the devil. Of COURSE IT WAS SCRIPTED. These are the Clintons. I am a moron like you all, but I seme to have more memory. I remember the Clintons. I recognize them for what they are, what they have always been.
honestly, does *** Meyer, an experienced commentator who has seen more elections than most people can imagine, really think the "Clinton tears" were unscripted? Of course he knows it was scripted, just as the infamous and repulsive "Clinton kiss" was scripted. So then why does he pretend it is unscripted? This is collusion with evil. That''s how it looks folks. He plays the game - perhaps he thinks he''ll get access to the White house or some political favors. That''s corruption in the media.
She will take, not give. No need to remember Ruby Ridge, we will live it again. No need to remember the murder at Waco, she will bring it fourfold on all of us. She will take, not give, look in her eyes you see only the hunger and the hate.
We''re doomed
From the beginning, all analysts new that Obama''s two digit lead are mainly due to it''s support from unaffiliated voters, those independent that many share their support of Obama with McCain. Today many independent in NH accepted the suggestion from the polls that Obama is unstoppable, but McCain needs help. They rushed to republican primary to keep McCain in the race assuming that it will not hurt Obama.
The question is did Obama or McCain prepare for such poll effect. Perhaps, McCain did as he got NH vote on 2004 in a similar fashion when unaffiliated voters rushed to republican primary.
People are MORE interested in finding someone who does not have baggage or skeletons in their closet to lead this country into the changes it needs, rather than helping "a woman" break through the "glass ceiling of power".
She''s doing the wrong thing at the wrong time trying to promote her feminist agenda and everyone, other than women like her, can see it.
But at least NH voters, on both sides of the aisle, were infinitely more sensible than their counterparts in IA.
It''s time once and for all to get rid of this incredibly undemocratic system we have for choosing our presidential nominees. I''m sick of letting voters in a handful of states be surrogates for us all.
But at least NH voters, on both sides of the aisle, were infinitely more sensible than their counterparts in IA.
It''s time once and for all to get rid of this incredibly undemocratic system we have for choosing our presidential nominees. I''m sick of letting voters in a handful of states be surrogates for us all.
But at least NH voters, on both sides of the aisle, were infinitely more sensible than their counterparts in IA.
It''s time once and for all to get rid of this incredibly undemocratic system we have for choosing our presidential nominees. I''m sick of letting voters in a handful of states be surrogates for us all.
Sharn... you''re looking in a mirror, that''s the problem.
But at least NH voters, on both sides of the aisle, were infinitely more sensible than their counterparts in IA.
It''s time once and for all to get rid of this incredibly undemocratic system we have for choosing our presidential nominees. I''m sick of letting voters in a handful of states be surrogates for us all.
I wonder if she will tear up again or if her campaign will decide against anymore fake tears
I spent all of yesterday giving of my time for the Barack Obama campaign in New Hampshire, going door to door and doing the work of democracy, physically helping the person who I believe to be most worthy of the Presidency of the United States. I have felt tremendously inspired by this man ever since the Audacity of Hope speech in 2004, and through reading his books and watching his speeches, I believe that I agree with him on a large host of issues facing the American people. After victory in Iowa, recent poll numbers showed Obama with a significant lead in New Hampshire, and I believed that a broad majority of Americans shared this view of America%u2019s future, which filled me with hope.
And yet, here I am, feeling exactly as I have every time that there has been a Presidential election in this country that I have been old enough care about %u2013 confused and defeated.
The questions seem endless at the moment %u2013 How could the polls be so wrong? How could an organization as tight as the one I witnessed in New Hampshire fail? Where were the young voters when we needed them? Did they feel complacent after the Iowa win? Et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
But in the end, none of it was good enough, as the results of the New Hampshire Democratic Primary crushed my hopes yet again. Crushed just as they were when John Kerry was defeated by George W. Bush, after years of what I believed to be perverse failure. Crushed just as they were when Bush defeated Gore in 2000, after I had been brought up in a Democratic home where Bill Clinton was looked upon with favor. In each case, a repudiation of the values and beliefs most important to me seems to have taken place, whether by the entire nation, as was the case in the Bush wins, or, on a smaller scale, by New Hampshire voters yesterday.
This has led me to reconsider whether or not Barack Obama%u2019s idea of building a working majority based on shared hopes, dreams, and a bond which will not break %u2013 is as valuable as it first sounded to my ears. If his supporters agree with him on all of the issues, and think that the positions he has outlined accurately summarize what is important to us, then the kind of constant defeat that this thinking has endured this decade suggests that perhaps we aren%u2019t as unified as a people as we may have thought.
You know what is really pathetic? If she doesn''t show emotion, she''s a cold b-i-t-ch, if she does show any emotion at all then of course she is too weak to be president. She can''t win either way.
But guess what? She did win this one didn''t she?? Even after the polls said she wouldn''t.
I hope I%u2019m overreacting here, and that Obama rebounds from this loss to win the Democratic nomination and then the Presidency, because if those things don%u2019t happen, then it will be evident that his views (and subsequently, the views of his supporters) are not the views of American society at large, which is a depressing prospect, to be sure.
I suppose the only thing we young Democrats can do is to continue along the path of what we think is right and good. Maybe someday, there will be validation at the other side of the road.
PLEASE GO OUT AND VOTE AND BE COUNTED!!
HILLARY IS THE MOST QUALIFIED & HUMANE!!
SHE WILL GET THE JOB DONE!!!
YOU HAVE MY VOTE AND TELLING EVERYONE I KNOW.
GOD BLESS HILLARY AND HER FAMILY!!!
Posted by MikeyAC86
MikeAC - keep up the faith! As a fellow Obama supporter, I think it''s always a plus when ppl are given the opportunity to put their concerns to the test, and thanks to the ppl of New Hampshire we all get the chance to do that now.
It must come as a real shock to you to hear the results if you looked ppl in the eyes and saw the excitement they had for Obama. That kind of excitement will only get stronger as Obama is tossed some knocks in the coming days by an emboldened Clinton machine and comes out on top.
Obama''s not Kerry, but it does seem like ppl have the Kerry debacle in mind so it''s fine that Obama''ll have the chance to show his substance - he''s going to do well in that department!
Go Barack!
Hillary personifies all that is wrong with this society we need to move past her generation....
we need to focus on abridging the rights of our ''government'' not the rights of the people. the founding documents were pretty clear on this if anyone can still read these days since we gave the government the sole responsibility of educating our children. what a disaster does anyone know why we our ancestors came here to begin with???? TO BE FREE!!!!! yet in 2008 here we are slaves again
But at least NH voters, on both sides of the aisle, were infinitely more sensible than their counterparts in IA.
It''s time once and for all to get rid of this incredibly undemocratic system we have for choosing our presidential nominees. I''m sick of letting voters in a handful of states be surrogates for us all.
sincerely, dave rosenberg I will be working rlentlessly here in calif, thousands of people here have already voted absentee for hillary
They''ve been compromised.
Posted by BarbJC1
No, from your comments it doesnt seem like your choice was based on race. But, based on your comments, ''Give us our first woman president'', your choice was based on gender. Voting for someone solely because of their gender makes you just as big of a bigot than the men you made a sweeping generalization about saying, ''most of the negative comments are from men''.
Posted by BarbJC1
No, from your comments it doesnt seem like your choice was based on race. But, based on your comments, ''Give us our first woman president'', your choice was based on gender. Voting for someone solely because of their gender makes you just as big of a bigot than the men you made a sweeping generalization about saying, ''most of the negative comments are from men''.
Posted by BarbJC1
No, from your comments it doesnt seem like your choice was based on race. But, based on your comments, ''Give us our first woman president'', your choice was based on gender. Voting for someone solely because of their gender makes you just as big of a bigot than the men you made a sweeping generalization about saying, ''most of the negative comments are from men''.
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