How Obama Became The Man To Beat
CBSNews.com Reports: Barack Obama Is On The Verge Of Becoming The Clear Democratic Frontrunner. How Did He Do It?
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Obama On The Upswing In N.H.
A new CBS poll points to surge in popularity for Barack Obama among New Hampshire's independent voters, and sharp drop for his main competitor Hillary Clinton. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Voters Now Colorblind?
Sen. Barack Obama is the first African American to have a real chance at the presidency. Does this mean voters have gotten beyond race? Harry Smith speaks Joe Watson and Jon Meacham of Newsweek.
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Obama Speaks Of Absent Father
Sen. Barack Obama's father was largely absent in his life, yet the presidential candidate finds inspiration in him. Harry Smith reports.
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Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., visits with supporters at a rally, Monday, Jan. 7, 2008, in Rochester, N.H. (AP)
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Photo Essay
Barack Obama
A look at the life and meteoric rise of the president-elect.
If the polls are to be believed, Barack Obama, a man with just three years of Senate experience and virtually no national name recognition before the 2004 Democratic convention, is about to win the New Hampshire primary. The win would come less than a week after his victory in the Iowa caucuses and make him the clear frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Hillary Clinton, meanwhile - named most admired woman in the world, the spouse of a former president, the person the media had long talked about as the inevitable Democratic nominee - could be on the verge of a demoralizing defeat, one that wouldn't be easy for her campaign to recover from. As her need to fight back tears in New Hampshire yesterday illustrated, the pressure of campaigning and expectations seem to be taking a toll on her.
So what happened? How did Obama's campaign outmaneuver a Clinton team that many observers thought unstoppable?
Message:
Obama cast himself as the "change" candidate early in the campaign, and his competitors' attempts to co-opt that message serve as a testament to its effectiveness. Clinton, realizing that an argument built on experience and competence had not won voters over, recast herself as the candidate whose experience could best bring change about. John Edwards, pushing populist rhetoric further than his rivals, cast himself as the only man willing to go far enough to affect real change. Even Mitt Romney, a Republican, has made the notion that he is a change candidate one of the central arguments of his campaign.
The candidates have good reason to cast themselves as change agents: Polls show that the majority of Americans - and the vast majority of Democrats - are now calling for it. More than half of Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa said the capacity for change was the most important factor in their assessment of a candidate. But change was not a Clinton theme early in her campaign, which left the door open for Obama to claim it. He stressed that he opposed the war in Iraq, which Clinton voted for, to hammer home his rejection of Bush administration politics. And while Clinton has repeatedly stressed her ability to foster change in recent weeks - she has been saying "if you want to know what kind of changes I will make, look at the changes I have already made" - one Democratic consultant calls the attempt "too little, too late, and too obvious."
Tactics:
The Clinton campaign flirted with the notion of not competing in Iowa, a suggestion that doesn't look so bad in retrospect. The former first lady finished third in the caucuses, a result that came in part because the Obama campaign, unlike the Clinton campaign, aggressively targeted new voters - and they responded. "The astounding thing that really made the difference is the massive increase in turnout," says Dennis J. Goldford, professor of politics at Drake University. More than 239,000 Democrats caucused on Jan. 3rd, nearly double the number who did so in 2004. Fifty-seven percent of voters under 30 - a group that caucused in unprecedented numbers - broke for Obama.
The Clinton campaign has tried to downplay the importance of Obama's victory in Iowa. "The worst thing would be to over count Iowa and its importance," Chief Clinton Strategist Mark Penn told reporters after the caucuses. He added, "Iowa doesn’t have a record of picking presidents." But the Clinton campaign seems to have underestimated how damaging a relatively poor finish in Iowa could be, particularly considering the compressed primary schedule and the media's obsessive focus on the caucuses. Iowa isn't always a bellwether - George H.W. Bush came in third there in 1988, behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson, and went on to win the Republican nomination - but it can transform a campaign and anoint a new frontrunner. That's exactly what happened in 2004, when John Kerry's Iowa win propelled him to the Democratic nomination ahead of Howard Dean.
In many ways Obama did not run a traditional campaign targeted at solidifying the base of the party, instead opting to stress inclusiveness and speak of reaching out. But he ran a very traditional campaign in one sense: He put together a massive organization and raising over $100 million during 2007. Most candidates with insurgent-like energy shun the party establishment, but Obama has welcomed such support whenever offered, winning the endorsements of politicians and celebrities alike.
Clinton Fatigue:
After more than a decade in which the Clinton and Bush families have been at the forefront of politics, there was an opening for a candidate who could transform anti-Clinton (and, more broadly, anti-status quo) sentiment into support. "The Clintons and the Bushes represent the last generation for many people," says David King, a public policy lecturer at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
Obama has been able to claim the anti-Clinton mantle in part by resisting overtly negative attacks on his rivals, attacks that might have caused voters to see him as nothing more than the latest divisive politician to emerge onto the national scene. Most candidates, King says, will talk about a new, post-partisan era, but "the next talking point will be a little zinger to somebody else. Obama hasn't been like that. He's been consistently positive."
And Clinton's early message of competence may only have exacerbated Clinton fatigue in voters. "When she talked about the grounds for her claims of competence it kept tying her back to the 90s," says Goldford. "And it raised questions in people's minds - are we really talking about Bill's third term?"
Background and Style:
People have long raised questions about whether Americans could elect a black president, but thus far Obama's race seems to have benefited him. "His being black is an advantage in Democratic primaries because racial tolerance is an important component of being a liberal Democrat," says Democratic media strategist Dan Payne. Democratic pollster Mark Mellman argues that Obama's race "helps to make his cause a movement."
"It helps people to believe they're involved in a historically transformative experience," Mellman says.
Obama's compelling life story, which he has articulated both on the stump and in books, seems to evoke a strong emotional response in many voters. Like President George W. Bush, he talks eloquently about his struggles early in life. (The similarities don't end there: When Mr. Bush was a candidate, he cast himself as the man who would unify the country, much like Obama does today.)
And Obama's appealing personal style, combined with his generally positive rhetoric, has been enough for many.
"We don't know much about him," says Payne. "He's almost like a spirit. People like the feeling they get when they're in his presence. But they couldn't tell you three things that he's done or stands for. We're at that weird stage where candidates get so magnetic that it almost doesn't matter what they say."
That doesn't last forever, of course, and Obama could slip up anytime, perhaps making the kind of verbal gaffe that can sink a nominee. But it's been a remarkable run so far, with Obama, not Clinton, emerging as the candidate most adept at avoiding the potential pitfalls of the presidential campaign.
"So far," says King, "Barack Obama has done just about everything right."
By Brian Montopoli
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On the Democratic side he will take a major part of the fool vote on the putative left who imagine that a man who calls for the invasion of Pakistan and the "taking out" of thousands of "acitivist extemists" in Iraq is some kind of peace candidate...
...these are the same kind of delusionals who imagined that a Democratic Party led by Reid, Pelosi and the likes of the Mad Dog McCain endorsing Lieberman would lead to peace.
With 80,000,000 gun owners in America, they are
losing a lot of votes by not supporting our constitutional rights.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=jPev5sEdTjg
The only thing Romney changes is his position on just about every major issue in this campaign. He is a nothing more than a pandering flip-flopper.
Obama says he will invade Pakistan...so much for peace...Remember 2006! Did the Democrats end the war? Have American soldiers stopped being murdered? Think before you jump off the cliff with Obama.
Obama for President!
Also, if that is all you can say about Obama, is that he has little experience. I feel sorry for the rest of the candidates...who have MUCH BIGGER skeletons in their closets.
So, whomever the Democrat nominee turns out to be, therein lies our next President of these United States of America. Deal with it. And, while you are at it, try to do it with grace and aplomb.
It''s simple. After seven long, disasterous years of Bu$h/Neocon rule, Americans are looking for change.
I don''t get that feeling from Obama (too much of the preacher and not enough leader). Certainly not from Clinton with her crocodile tears which backfired and showed weakness (what the far-right loved to see). Edwards seems too disingenuous (the proverbial courtroom actor). Mitt? Nuh-uh. More like a towel on the line flipping in the wind. Rudy? No moral compass. Huckabee? Too religious.
The candidates with the best compass and track records of sticking to their guns are Kucinich and Paul but they were already ruled out by the media as un-electable. Too bad, really, because they would have provided the best opportunity from both sides to offer a coalition which is what this country needs right now.
I said earlier that people are desperate for "change." I say that because they don''t know what else to call it. I really believe that, underlying it all, the American People yearn for honesty, authenticity and integrity. They want for a leader that will restore dignity to the presidency and pride in our government (which has been waning for many, many years). Barack Obama says he can do that for us. If that''s true, why hasn''t he before now?
And Obama''s appealing personal style, combined with his generally positive rhetoric, has been enough for many.
Its not enough America ....................
Media love him.
He went to prestigious private schools and was bred to be a President.
He has a great pedigree.
Chris Matthews has a man crush on Obama.
He''s tall and a man.
Oprah (TV personality) approves of him.
He can give inspiring speeches (can''t speak up on committees or at debates to save his life though).
The GOP (Hagel, Rove) loves him (trojan horse).
He''s friends with hiphop stars.
He''s against gay rights, like many Americans.
He doesn''t vote on controversial subjects.
That''s how he did it. He''s a good politician.
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Posted by yaliktono at 01:02 PM : Jan 08, 2008
Good analysis but I fear the current process media and Parties place these virtues out of rour each for a new Leader, personality packaged as a marketing need is all that is getting through these political sects.
Ahem, Pepper, GW has never once talked "eloquently" in his life about anything, at least not that I''ve seen or heard. Barack and GW are so dissimlar in every respect that to see you even compare the two is laughable at best.
Sorry, just the way I see it. And, if the shoe fits-----
In the first paragraph under the header "Message" is the following sentence:
"John Edwards, pushing populist rhetoric further than his rivals, cast himself as the only man willing to go far enough to affect real change. "
This is an incorrect usage of the verb "affect." In this particular case, the correct phrasing would be "to effect real change."
It''s a common error, however please see here for the proper usage in this case:
http://www.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/affect.html
From the site: The less common is a verb meaning %u201Cto create%u201D: %u201CI%u2019m trying to effect a change in the way we purchase widgets.%u201D Mr. Edwards is not trying to *affect change* (which would mean that there is a change he is trying to alter), he is trying to *effect change* - to create it.
- A lot to be said from someone who voted for Bush, registered as an independent, and spent most of my life blindly voting for Democrats. There''s something to be said for doing the research, making a choice, and believing in the possibility that our country can live up to its promise.
Experience means nothing when you have honesty, intelligence, and a good team.
Experience means nothing when you have honesty, intelligence, and a good team.
Experience means nothing when you have honesty, intelligence, and a good team.
Experience means nothing when you have honesty, intelligence, and a good team.
Experience means nothing when you have honesty, intelligence, and a good team.
Obama for President!!!
- A lot to be said from someone who voted for Bush, registered as an independent, and spent most of my life blindly voting for Democrats. There''s something to be said for doing the research, making a choice, and believing in the possibility that our country can live up to its promise.
Glad you like Oprah Winfrey so much. You have good taste.
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
I said earlier that people are desperate for "change." I say that because they don''t know what else to call it. I really believe that, underlying it all, the American People yearn for honesty, authenticity and integrity. They want for a leader that will restore dignity to the presidency and pride in our government (which has been waning for many, many years). Barack Obama says he can do that for us. If that''s true, why hasn''t he before now?
http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Powell_I_r
ejoice_in_Obamas_achievements_0108.html
Brian Williams interview with Sen.Obama was a nice piece also.
Obama 08
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
The media, the pundits, overindulged candidates have continually underestimated voters find themselves glycerin road slick as Americans--tired, fed up, but not ready to give up--finally revolutionize against those who have formulated and focused politics the way that benefits them best.
It''s over. Finally.
The momentum is with Obama, God love him.
MO-BAMA!
It''s very simple.
People are so tired of Bu$h and his Republican rubber-stampers that they''d vote for anyone who they thought could bring real change.
The right wing-nuts have been surprisingly quiet about Obama. Wonder why?
That is why Obama -- a big-city African-American -- won in rural white Iowa and is leading in white NH. Change requires that you weigh experience less and take a chance with a newbie. As Americans are mostly conservative, change isn''t something taken lightly; the status quo has to be pretty bad to take a chance on a newbie. Voters are showing that the status quo is despised.
So it is a genuine change that is being sought -- not campaign rhetoric of change. Obama is the one Democratic candidate that delivers what voters are seeking.
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Posted by nexgen99 at 01:32 PM : Jan 08, 2008
Unfortunately true we asked for a competent ethical tested candidate they send us their pick for Dr. Feel Good with his marketed need and pixie dust%u2026%u2026%u2026%u2026. And oh by the way those baby boomers he dismisses so lightly, we are the ones that vote in the States the Dems need and have not pulled...