Are You Ready For Cars Driving Themselves?

GM Says Driverless Vehicles May Be On Market In 10 Years

(AP)  Cars that drive themselves - even parking at their destination - could be ready for sale within a decade, General Motors Corp. executives say.

GM, parts suppliers, university engineers and other automakers all are working on vehicles that could revolutionize short- and long-distance travel. And Tuesday at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner will devote part of his speech to the driverless vehicles.

"This is not science fiction," Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research and development, said in a recent interview.

The most significant obstacles facing the vehicles could be human rather than technical: government regulation, liability laws, privacy concerns and people's passion for the automobile and the control it gives them.

Much of the technology already exists for vehicles to take the wheel: radar-based cruise control, motion sensors, lane-change warning devices, electronic stability control and satellite-based digital mapping. And automated vehicles could dramatically improve life on the road, reducing crashes and congestion.

If people are interested.

"Now the question is what does society want to do with it?" Burns said. "You're looking at these issues of congestion, safety, energy and emissions. Technically there should be no reason why we can't transfer to a totally different world."

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CBS News technology correspondent Daniel Sieberg blogs from CES

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GM plans to use an inexpensive computer chip and an antenna to link vehicles equipped with driverless technologies. The first use likely would be on highways; people would have the option to choose a driverless mode while they still would control the vehicle on local streets, Burns said.

He said the company plans to test driverless car technology by 2015 and have cars on the road around 2018.

Sebastian Thrun, co-leader of the Stanford University team that finished second among six teams completing a 60-mile Pentagon-sponsored race of driverless cars in November, said GM's goal is technically attainable. But he said he wasn't confident cars would appear in showrooms within a decade.

"There's some very fundamental, basic regulations in the way of that vision in many countries," said Thrun, a professor of computer science and electrical engineering.

The Defense Department contest, which initially involved 35 teams, showed the technology isn't ready for prime time. One team was eliminated after its vehicle nearly charged into a building, while another vehicle mysteriously pulled into a house's carport and parked itself.

Thrun said a key benefit of the technology eventually will be safer roads and reducing the roughly 42,000 U.S. traffic deaths that occur annually - 95 percent of which he said are caused by human mistakes.

"We might be able to cut those numbers down by a factor of 50 percent," Thrun said. "Just imagine all the funerals that won't take place."

Other challenges include updating vehicle codes and figuring out who would be liable in a crash and how to cope with blown tires or obstacles in the road. But the systems could be developed to tell motorists about road conditions, warn of crashes or stopped vehicles ahead and prevent collisions in intersections.

Later versions of driverless technology could reduce jams by directing vehicles to space themselves close together, almost as if they were cars in a train, and maximize the use of space on a freeway, he said.

"It will really change society, very much like the transition from a horse to a car," Thrun said.

The U.S. government has pushed technology to help drivers avoid crashes, most notably electronic stability controls that help prevent rollovers. The systems are required on new passenger vehicles starting with the 2012 model year.

Vehicle-to-vehicle communication and technology allowing cars to talk with highway systems could come next.

Still in debate are how to address drivers' privacy, whether current vehicles can be retrofitted and how many vehicles would be need the systems to develop an effective network.

"Where it shakes out remains to be seen but there is no question we see a lot of potential there," said Rae Tyson, a spokesman for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

Associated Press Writer Ken Thomas in Washington contributed to this report.

[lizish]

It all boils down to infrastructure: the capacity of this society to rebuild itself to support automated vehicles, highways, and energy-to-waste-energy systems. The bugs will be around forever, but we''ll eventually get it right, or at least we''ll get it so close to "right" that it will be worth it- for everyone. We don''t have the luxury of energy to waste anymore, and if birth and death rate trends continue, we won''t have the human lives to spare on needless transportation accidents. The energy needs will prompt us first, human life will prompt us next, and ultimately consciousness itself will demand such a change. I''ve written more about this topic, you can read it on my stupid site....blue_dreamt_green. Lizish.

[emma915]

How about testing them on I-480 thru Cuyahoga County in Ohio. That would be interesting. . . . (!)

[michellem99-2009]

I like a computer run car that takes the driving out of the Drivers''paws as they can''t drive safely. There was not long yer were not comfortable at the home computer,using the micorwave. Don''t worry Dear I have not the sight to use it nor care to when they hit the market.

[incog-nito]

Speaking of innovation, why doesn''t GM come out with a decent hybrid? You know, one that actually gets great gas mileage (think Toyota or Honda), not just slightly better than a regular car. Maybe then more people will buy their cars and they''ll stop losing market share. Hybrid technology has been around for over a decade now, not exactly cutting-edge technology. So what''s the holdup?

[winnemuccan]

There was an episode of Nova about a robotic car race.

[Syndicate]

Thats all lovley but these systems and technologies Exist. The DOD''s DARPA Tested several driverless vehicles several years ago in a couple hundred mile off road coarse. The Stanford Touareg won. The next challenge is to try the system in a simulated urban environment with simulated traffic and pedestrians. I''m not sure if these test have been performed. Here is a link to the rewst of the story: http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/robotics/4228634.html

[denn034]

It''s still not capable of allowing the blind to be behind the wheel though.

[MacTrek777]

Perhaps this is the answer to those older drivers who still want to use their cars and who have no viable mass transit options available.

[random_radar]

I doubt that GM will still be in business in a decade, let alone making cars that drive themselves.

[walt1944-2009]

General Motors thinks that cars driving themselves is a great idea!

Strange as I would think that giving the driver a car that didn''t have any hidden "bugs", where quality and greater fuel efficiency were the things that mattered, would be what GM should be delivering, not more fancy technology that will go wrong and cost a fortune to fix!

I have a 2005 Malibu that has had more bugs wrong with it than I have fingers and toes. When I go to the dealer, the answer I get is "GM knows about the problem, which is common to all Malibus, and is working on a fix (yeah, right!)". Problem is the same problems have been cronic with the Malibu for
for 5 years!!!!! It takes that long for the highly paid and overly stuffed engineers at GM to find a fix????

And with this technology the Great Emperor Bush II wants to go back to the moon and send astronauts to Mars!!! If I were an astronaut, I''d be pretty worried about getting there and getting back in one piece!

SIG HEIL, BUSH!!!!!

[christiansin]

We already have equivalent technology that goes unused every day. It is called "public transportation". It doesn''t require radar, cruise control, or changes to traffic laws. Oh, and you don''t have to pay for parking.

[incog-nito]

Maybe GM should concentrate on making good, reliable cars that people actually want to buy, on stopping the loss of market share, and on staying out of bankruptcy instead.

[rf35]

You think the idiots talking on their cell phones is bad? I''ve seen people texting while driving!

[hober_mallow]

Cars driving themselves? It couldn''t be any worse than some of the airheads in Seattle driving around yakking on their cell phones.

And Airheads, please don''t get upset. I was talking about ''airheads'', not ''Airheads''.

[fstop100]

great idea people today never learned how to drive anyway.

[rohink-2009]

I forgot one. I live in Hawaii and have actually seen people eating sushi with chopsticks while driving. I kid you not.

[rohink-2009]

It would be nice to get the idiots on their cell phones out from behind the wheel and into the back seat.

Posted by omega39

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Yep, along with the reckless drivers, those driving with a coke in one hand and a big mac in the other. How about the idiots that read the paper while driving, or women who put on make-up. Let''s not forget the idiots that drive with their seats reclined listening to blaring music.

[ms38654ob]

If it''s based on Microsoft products, the "Blue Screen of Death" will take on a totally new and more dangerous meaning...

I''d love a car that could drive itself on the highway at least. Surface streets would probably be a lot harder a problem.

[bobnjersey]

[Cars that drive themselves - even parking at their destination - could be ready for sale within a decade, General Motors Corp. executives say. ]

let me guess ... it too will have an internal combustion engine, no?

[harp1963]

After seeing million dollar gadgets malfunction and need constant engineering maintenance in auto, aluminum, and pharmaceutical plants over the last 20 years, I think I''ll just drive the car myself. I''ll be surprised if the government allows this.