Analysis: Obama Ahead; GOP A Headache

Obama Attains Front-Runner Status; Huckabee Win Roils GOP Race

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Voters in Iowa sent a strong wake-up call to the establishments of both political parties, validating the messages of two candidates battling against Republican and Democratic orthodoxy and machinery. The most unpredictable presidential race in modern political history now heads to a crucial showdown in New Hampshire.

For winners Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, their campaigns could hardly have scripted the results better. Fueled by young voters and an electorate motivated strongly by a desire for change, Democratic voters handed Obama an early mandate for the message he has carried throughout a year in which Hillary Clinton's experience and establishment support appeared nearly insurmountable.

Click here for complete Iowa results.

Huckabee took advantage of a Republican party dispirited by an unpopular president and unexcited by their choices for a presidential standard-bearer. Backed by energized Christian evangelicals, Huckabee toppled Mitt Romney, the only candidate in the GOP field to mount an aggressive, well-funded, traditional Iowa campaign. With relatively no real campaign organization at his disposal, Huckabee relied primarily on a tightly-knit community of Christian conservatives to deliver his victory. The already fluid Republican race is now in near-chaos. Any one of four candidates could still emerge as the winner.

For Hillary Clinton, the party's former front-runner, Iowa delivered a crushing blow, but not a knock-out. In large numbers, Iowans told caucus surveyors they were less concerned about electability and experience, two qualities Clinton used as a basis for her campaign.

Iowa was long viewed as a tough state for Clinton to win. Facing opposition from a veteran of the caucus process in John Edwards and a neighboring senator in Barack Obama, some of the New York Senator's strategists advised her to skip Iowa altogether. It may be a decision she will regret. Every single major Democratic candidate made a full commitment to winning Iowa, turning it into a full-fledged battle.

Clinton's third-place showing effectively shatters any lingering perceptions of her inevitable march to the nomination. A victory in New Hampshire is now crucial to her campaign's future.

Obama's convincing victory could well trigger a series of primary wins. Heading to New Hampshire, Obama is poised to capture the imaginations and votes of independent voters who make up a full third of that state's electorate. Then comes the South Carolina two weeks later where African-Americans will constitute over half of the Democratic primary vote.

Barack Obama's path to the nomination, once a narrow and hazardous road, is now clearly mapped out. With a series of early wins, he may be unstoppable when some 22 states vote on February 5th. He has now captured the front-runner's crown for the Democratic nomination.

While Democrats found clarity in Iowa, the Republicans created confusion. Mike Huckabee's impressive victory will be next to impossible to replicate in New Hampshire, where economic and libertarian-minded GOP voters and independents far outnumber the evangelicals. But, following New Hampshire comes South Carolina, where Huckabee could well attract the kind of devoted following he found in Iowa.

So New Hampshire is looking like a showdown between Romney and John McCain, whose once left-for-dead campaign has surged in the Granite State in recent weeks. Seeking a repeat of his primary victory in 2000, McCain has returned to his "straight talk" style. And he has had the state largely to himself as other candidates swarmed Iowa. McCain and Obama will now fight over New Hampshire’s independent voters, who can participate in either party's.

For Romney, the failure to win Iowa badly cripples him. His strategy was based on sweeping the early contests. Romney has sought to convince a skeptical conservative base of the party that he was one of them and that his recent conversion to core party concerns like abortion, gun control and gay marriage was authentic. The fact that those same conservatives instead rallied around a little-known, under-funded former governor from Arkansas strongly suggests those overtures were rejected.

Rudy Giuliani is still a wild card on the Republican side. His strategy to deemphasize the early contests and make his stands in the larger states that vote later suddenly looks more viable than it did just a week ago. Should Huckabee, McCain and Romney emerge with split decisions in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and even Michigan, Giuliani's time and efforts in Florida could pay off come January 29th. But that’s a big gamble.

Almost all of the Republican candidates have had a turn as the favorite over the past year. After Iowa, the picture remains murkier than ever. For tonight at least, Huckabee is the only winner so far. And Mitt Romney is the only clear loser.

Iowa will make Democrats will feel emboldened, regardless of who emerges as the eventual nominee. Turnout shattered records -- more than 236,000 Democrats voted, including a large number of self-described independents -- up from 125,000 four years ago. For months polls have shown a substantially higher level of excitement among Democrats. Now Iowa voters have proved that is correct.

After a year of speculation, voters have begun to do the talking. The voters of Iowa sent clear signals to candidates of both parties. They picked fresh faces.

[closethippy1]

My most sincere congratulations to Obama. He did it his way.

[missingamerica]

I think that "experience" and "electability" argument for a candidate broke down over a couple of simple performance curves: The income inequality curve over the last 30 years and the AMEX oil index (XOI) over the last eight years.

The big bucks that control most of the Republican Party and far too much of the Democratic Party have forgotten that rape goes a lot smoother if your victim doesn''t know that they''re being raped.

[gregghofcc]

I think it is time to recognize that Huckabee has been a successful governor longer than he was a pastor. He knows how to govern in a divided state. That will come in handy in our deeply polarized nation. He brings the heart of seasoned pastor together with the head of an effective statesman. He seems to understand what the consequences of public policy are for the people who have to live and work and sometimes even fight and die under them. I personally like that. It reminds me of both Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan who ran against their party and it was good for the Republicans that they did and that they won. It''s not about his faith anymore, its about his basic good sense and his authentic kindness. His sense of humor is evidence that the man is emotionally healthy. His critics reveal more about the emptiness of their own souls than they do about the content of his ideas and character. Iowa picked up on that fact and that is why so many turned away from Romney. Now, if only Wall Street and the D.C. Beltway Crowd can will listen to what the man has to say, they may realize that he is a breath of fresh air for the party and the nation. The point is, Huckabee is a skillful uniter and that is just what America needs right now.

[gregghofcc]

I think it is time to recognize that Huckabee has been a successful governor longer than he was a pastor. He knows how to govern in a divided state. That will come in handy in our deeply polarized nation. He brings the heart of seasoned pastor together with the head of an effective statesman. He seems to understand what the consequences of public policy are for the people who have to live and work and sometimes even fight and die under them. I personally like that. It reminds me of both Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan who ran against their party and it was good for the Republicans that they did and that they won. It''s not about his faith anymore, its about his basic good sense and his authentic kindness. His sense of humor is evidence that the man is emotionally healthy. His critics reveal more about the emptiness of their own souls than they do about the content of his ideas and character. Iowa picked up on that fact and that is why so many turned away from Romney. Now, if only Wall Street and the D.C. Beltway Crowd can will listen to what the man has to say, they may realize that he is a breath of fresh air for the party and the nation. The point is, Huckabee is a skillful uniter and that is just what America needs right now.

[gregghofcc]

I think it is time to recognize that Huckabee has been a successful governor longer than he was a pastor. He knows how to govern in a divided state. That will come in handy in our deeply polarized nation. He brings the heart of seasoned pastor together with the head of an effective statesman. He seems to understand what the consequences of public policy are for the people who have to live and work and sometimes even fight and die under them. I personally like that. It reminds me of both Teddy Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan who ran against their party and it was good for the Republicans that they did and that they won. It''s not about his faith anymore, its about his basic good sense and his authentic kindness. His sense of humor is evidence that the man is emotionally healthy. His critics reveal more about the emptiness of their own souls than they do about the content of his ideas and character. Iowa picked up on that fact and that is why so many turned away from Romney. Now, if only Wall Street and the D.C. Beltway Crowd can will listen to what the man has to say, they may realize that he is a breath of fresh air for the party and the nation. The point is, Huckabee is a skillful uniter and that is just what America needs right now.

[syjen24]

Your opinion regarding Mike Huckabee''s chances in New Hampshire is flawed and out-of-touch (Re: "Mike Huckabee''s impressive victory will be next to impossible to replicate in New Hampshire, where economic and libertarian-minded GOP voters and independents far outnumber the evangelicals.").

Mike Huckabee has a strong appeal to any Libertarian supporter (especially in comparison to any Democratic candidate). His platform includes much of what the Libertarians stand for - smaller government closer to the people, reduced government waste, lower taxes, 2nd ammendment rights, and so on. In fact, I challenge you to find a better mainstream candidate (Republican or Democrat) who stands a chance of winning that better appeals to Libertarian values.

You also don''t have to be an Evangelical to appreciate someone''s strong personal faith and unwavering values - especially when they have a proven track record of public service that is even more noteworthy.

[PulSamsara]

Good for America !

It really is Time to Rise and Shine again America.

Barack Obama for President of the United States of America !

Really good people... really good.

[jdweymouth]

syjen24;

Ron Paul.

[jdweymouth]

If Hillary loses New Hampshire she''s done.

[cs4466]

The danger of religion in politics cannot be understated. If, when you vote, you ask yourself "who would Jesus vote for", you need to admit to yourself that you are seriously, seriously screwed up.

[apolloknowsa]

Huckabee can''t win in NH because he can not count on the anti-Mormon fanatics that he had in Iowa. The bigots will be back in South Carolina (thanks to the anonymous fliers, phone push polls etc.--illegal, but legality never stopped a bigot in the South.)

This will divide the GOP along sectarian lines. Huckabee is fomenting sectarian strife. Do we really need sunni/shia here in America? THINK PEOPLE!!!

Stop with the bigotry. Huck pardoned murderers. Argue and discuss issues. I realize that taking what amounts to a bribe is hard to defend (Huckabee #6 most corrupt politician according to judicialwatch.org) but religious bigotry will tear the country asunder.

[antizion]

I think they all suck. Ron Paul 2008!

Was the election fair and were the votes properly counted and verified?

[xlib]

Such political pundits here, such indepth views. Regarding the first poster pulling the tried and true democratic cry "were all the votes counted". How typical of the left. If you don''t like the outcome, cry foul.
Regarding the title of this "piece" "GOP headache". Is the author trying to say that the left doesn''t have a "headache"? If this guy doesn''t think that mr & mrs clinton aren''t going to pull out all the stops, he''s as blind as most of the left. Your golden boy better watch out. She won''t just go for what he wrote when in the 3rd grade, she''ll go back to when he was potty trained and weaned.
As for the rest of the world being SOOOOOO proud that a black man (actually half black but you guys don''t talk about that), get real.

[jack3213]

I think the media, this paper included, makes so much out of nothing. It is absurd to think in terms of finality when the race just started. Some candidates came out of the gate way too earlly, some way too late. What counts is the primaries, and more so the General election. Prediction: Guiliani wins and asks McCain to be Vice President.

[mcvet]

Such political pundits here, such indepth views. Regarding the first poster pulling the tried and true democratic cry "were all the votes counted". How typical of the left. If you don''''t like the outcome, cry foul.
Regarding the title of this "piece" "GOP headache". Is the author trying to say that the left doesn''''t have a "headache"? If this guy doesn''''t think that mr & mrs clinton aren''''t going to pull out all the stops, he''''s as blind as most of the left. Your golden boy better watch out. She won''''t just go for what he wrote when in the 3rd grade, she''''ll go back to when he was potty trained and weaned.
As for the rest of the world being SOOOOOO proud that a black man (actually half black but you guys don''''t talk about that), get real.


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Posted by Xlib at 06:43 AM : Jan 04, 2008
+ report abuse

The headache for the Fascist is obvious and should be to anyone. They can not attract independents and Real Republican''s. If you look at the numbers the number of people turning out in the Democratic side nearly DOUBLED the amount turning out on the Fascist side. Yep I''d say the "Republican" Party has a very serious problem. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[stump61]

Xlib, I''m not sure how much more astute you are that the pundits you''re complaining about. A little help here: The comments refresh with newest at the top of the page, so it would be previous poster, not first. Dr. Ron Paul is a GOP Congressman from Texas. The supporter of Con. Paul has good reason to wonder if the votes within the GOP caucus were accounted for properly. There was a lot of monetary support out of Iowa and Dr. Paul has won a majority of post debate polls and straw polls.

The results and what''s mentioned in the article leave me scratching my head more so than the article title. There is no mention of Dr. Paul whatsoever, he had a 6% lead over One Platform Giuliani and 3% away from third. The author mentions Giuliani as a dark horse and Romney taking N.H. but how is he conveniently forgetting that Dr. Paul is a libertarian leaning candidate going into a libertarian state? I''m hoping for a much better showing. We need to get the word out, the media has been much better in helping but it comes down to us passing the word and donating money. Syjen24 and anyone else wanting a candidate with all those qualities go read up on Dr. Paul, it can''t hurt can it?

[skyk-2009]

Yeah I was just looking at those numbers Sarge...they are unbelievable. About the ONLY people, what is now called Republican Party, can bank on is the Religious Reich. It should be obvious to anyone that this nation has had its belly full of a President who thinks "God" put him in office, they aren''t going to go back to that well again. By the way what did the doc say about the foot?

[stump61]

Xlib, I''m not sure how much more astute you are that the pundits you''re complaining about. A little help here: The comments refresh with newest at the top of the page, so it would be previous poster, not first. Dr. Ron Paul is a GOP Congressman from Texas. The supporter of Con. Paul has good reason to wonder if the votes within the GOP caucus were accounted for properly. There was a lot of monetary support out of Iowa and Dr. Paul has won a majority of post debate polls and straw polls.

The results and what''s mentioned in the article leave me scratching my head more so than the article title. There is no mention of Dr. Paul whatsoever, he had a 6% lead over One Platform Giuliani and 3% away from third. The author mentions Giuliani as a dark horse and Romney taking N.H. but how is he conveniently forgetting that Dr. Paul is a libertarian leaning candidate going into a libertarian state? I''m hoping for a much better showing. We need to get the word out, the media has been much better in helping but it comes down to us passing the word and donating money. Syjen24 and anyone else wanting a candidate with all those qualities go read up on Dr. Paul, it can''t hurt can it?

[skyk-2009]

The results and what''''s mentioned in the article leave me scratching my head more so than the article title. There is no mention of Dr. Paul whatsoever, he had a 6% lead over One Platform Giuliani and 3% away from third. The author mentions Giuliani as a dark horse and Romney taking N.H. but how is he conveniently forgetting that Dr. Paul is a libertarian leaning candidate going into a libertarian state? I''''m hoping for a much better showing. We need to get the word out, the media has been much better in helping but it comes down to us passing the word and donating money. Syjen24 and anyone else wanting a candidate with all those qualities go read up on Dr. Paul, it can''''t hurt can it?


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Posted by Stump61 at 07:32 AM : Jan 04, 2008

You make some very valid points and Paul IS the only Republican promising anything but the same tired old things we have now. As I travel throughout this nation I find that to be the LAST thing people want. I doubt Ron will ever get close to a fair shake though... The Industrial Military Complex controls the Money in the party and the money is moving the machinery.

[erichsh]

Democrats (with the MSM''s help) are deliberately holding back on their traditional low-balled mudslinging against Huckabee, hoping he''ll win the the nomination. Then it will be back to business as usual, with a vengeance. Notice that Huckabee hasn''t been the target of the MSM''s whack-a-mole strategy of slamming whatever Republican happens to be first in the polls at the moment. No, all that will come later. As for Obama, as far as the MSM is concerned, all the world is a sunny day - the only negatives you''ll hear will be from those mean bigoted Republicans.

[mcvet]

Yeah I was just looking at those numbers Sarge...they are unbelievable. About the ONLY people, what is now called Republican Party, can bank on is the Religious Reich. It should be obvious to anyone that this nation has had its belly full of a President who thinks "God" put him in office, they aren''''t going to go back to that well again. By the way what did the doc say about the foot?


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Posted by skyk at 07:35 AM : Jan 04, 2008
+ report abuse

Hey Bro! Semper Fi! Well when you look at the polling in the states outside of Iowa though, Hillary is still the canidate to beat. On the other hand the Republican side Huckabee has a good lead nationally over Rudy, who has fallen and can''t get up. It doesn''t look good for the Nazi''s though when you look at the polls of people''s wants and needs when it comes to a leader. Bush has pretty much done what Hoover did to the Nazi''s back in the 30''s. As for the foot, the fractures in 69 didn''t heal properly so they are going to do surgery, rebreak it and try to repair it. LOL Vietnam, the nightmare that just keeps on giving. LOL Sieg Heil Bush

[antoniof123]

Like I said before now for the Democrats it is not the message but the style that will win this race. The Republicans want the same old same old but America wants new and fresh blood.

[mcvet]

Democrats (with the MSM''''s help) are deliberately holding back on their traditional low-balled mudslinging against Huckabee, hoping he''''ll win the the nomination. Then it will be back to business as usual, with a vengeance. Notice that Huckabee hasn''''t been the target of the MSM''''s whack-a-mole strategy of slamming whatever Republican happens to be first in the polls at the moment. No, all that will come later. As for Obama, as far as the MSM is concerned, all the world is a sunny day - the only negatives you''''ll hear will be from those mean bigoted Republicans.


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Posted by erichsh at 07:58 AM : Jan 04, 2008
+ report abuse

What is it with you Nazi''s? I grew up with the McCarthy bunch controling the media and I know what that''s all about... It seems all my life you lower than life creatures have been trying to snuff out the Free Press and I find it offensive. Just who would you suggest determine what we can or can not hear or see? You Fascist have so many outlets you can go to and hear nothing but the party line, why do you insist that we ALL hear it? I can think for myself and I can read for myself.... I do not need Pat Robertson and the Reich telling me what I can or can not hear and see. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[hwy71so]

"Prediction: Guiliani wins and asks McCain to be Vice President.

Posted by jack3213 at 07:08 AM : Jan 04, 2008"

I sure hope not!! Believe me, as much as I don''t want Hillary or Barack in the White House, I dislike the idea of Guiliani even more. McCain, maybe. But, please NOT Guiliani.

[gkc99]

Obama vs. Huckleberry! Get ready for the slime boaters--they''ve got to start the propaganda about Obama being a Muslim pretty soon now if their snakeoil tent revivial preacher boy with the hick name is going to take the presidency.

Sounds like a$$-whuppin time for the Dems! Payback time for all those insults from the Darth Bushits!

Suck it up Repugs.

[realpatriot1]

MCVET,

The turnout disparity is a rel headache foe November for the GOP. Iowa is the most evenly split blue-rwd state in the country; it went for Bush by less than 1% last time. A 2-to-1 turnout there for the Dems spells panic time for the GOP.

They''ll be resorting early and often to their tried and true smear tactics but Obma has already faced the and nothing has stuck becaause people know the game they''re replaying and it won''t work this time.

[hwy71so]

MCVet, All you talk about is how fallen this country is. I don''t know when it was, but you gave up a long time ago. Probably has something to do with Vietnam 30 YEARS ago. Now you come on here and CONSTANTLY call hard working honest Americans Nazis? You are one sad, sad little man. Your future and your life is what YOU make it. WE can''t build it for you. And when you and your politicians start telling me that I have to accept immoral and detrimental behavior as "normal", you''re doing exactly what you accuse me of. Sieg Heil yourownself...

[quetzal666]

Sounds like someone is still fighting communists, or smoked too much ragweed in Nam....
different times folks....theres was never a boogie man. i remember the lies we were fed during Reagan,
the Insurgencies in Latin america sponsored by Ollie north and his paper shredder.......

Obama/ Clinton is the ticket....
new ideas, new changes.....

[erichsh]

All of a sudden I have new-found respect for MCVet - at least he tried to make a point inserted into his otherwise incoherent tirade. Get lost, beecuster.

[gkc99]

"Huckabee relied primarily on a tightly-knit community of Christian conservatives to deliver his victory."


But when you get out of flyover sister-marrying land, Huckie may not do quite so well. Tent revival preachers aren''t in favor much in California or the Northeast, nor even in the cities of the midwest. Only in pig-f*cking land!

[usbrit-2009]

One thing that amazes me about these repug comments is they refer to democratic mudslinging. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. Repugs do more mudslinging in a school bosrd election than democrats do in a presidential election.

[scumlibs]

I think this is quite telling of how much the old media and liberals are petrified of Fred Thompson. He came in third and nary a mention of his name in this entire article...huh, I''ll be darned. According to the old media, he wasn''t even a contender to place in the top four of Republican candidates, yet he managed show...Be Afraid liberals, be very afraid! Fred 08''

[hwy71so]

Too many librarians in this country and not enough loggers.

[hwy71so]

You libs do realize that if the rednecks shut down, this country shuts down? Keep your little berating comments flowing. Eventually, the rednecks will quit carrying you.

[quetzal666]

just where the he-ll is iowa anyways????

is it even relevant?
why is the US still stuck using such an arcane
medieval system in the first place?
Iowa????? i know potatoes come from there but what else???

[usbrit-2009]

If Huckleberry gets elected the US will be the laughing stock of the world. Not just because of his unfortunate name, but how many world leaders are going to take seriously anyone who believes in creation?

[quetzal666]

if he can walk on water without any smoke and mirrors,
id still not vote for him.......
an end times preacher and Dispensationalist will only further the end times mentality and will probably help bring it about,

what was it Voltaire wrote?

"Men who believe absurdities will commit atrocities

[hwy71so]

"If Huckleberry gets elected the US will be the laughing stock of the world. Not just because of his unfortunate name, but how many world leaders are going to take seriously anyone who believes in creation?

Posted by USBrit at 10:00 AM : Jan 04, 2008"

About as many as those who worship an old woman with grand children who wear swastikas or dictator pseudo-presidentes who encourages his people to leech off of other countries.

[downsteamjim]

To McVet: Your history is still terrible & your speech still hateful. So much for a new year.

[downsteamjim]

What an election! And the winners in Iowa are hopeless rookie [Obama] and a ''bible thumping'' Clinton clone [Huckaby].

[elgraz]

OBAMA AS OUR PRESIDENT..............WHAT A JOKE. WE NEED A MAN FOR PRESIDENT, NOT A BOY.

[mimi611]

That would be "Idaho" potato. No wonder a moron like Bush is in the white house. At least, the Huck win is laughable. Poor republicans.

[hwy71so]

mimi, what are you talking about Quetzal is more liberal than Ted Kennedy? He''s a dual citizen with the very country that overflows our borders with people that can''t find income in their native country. He''s a Perry man, not Bush. Governor Perry''s the one that wants free travel between the U.S. and Mexico. AND if I remember right, Ron Paul''s one of Perry''s supporters.

[joyous88]

can hucksterbee read?

he does not seem to understand evolution.

[bdribus]

Amazing how many atheists post here... they are entitled to their beliefs, but shouldn''t expect the other 90% to follow them.

[superdem]

"...a Republican Party dispirited by an unpopular president.." try DETESTED president, hated because his POLICIES were a disaster for the United States in too many ways to relate here. The Republican solution ? A more "likeable" person to continue the VERY SAME POLICIES. If that "dispirits" the Republican party - too bad ! They marched in lockstep with Bush every inch of the way, they supported him in Congress and continue to this day. Every one of their candidates is pledged to the Bush agenda, so what are they fighting about ? I guess the Republicans weren''t satisfied in alienating the world, they now must alienate each other with their quest for ideological purity. For people so in love with "democracy" they should try it sometime.

[superdem]

Atheists don''t expect anyone to "follow them." They are not "followers", if they were, they''d be religious. They have examined the world closely, and found that religions have no connection to reality and are in fact contradicted by science. The world is like a Christmas tree with presents under it - it either got there because Santa brought it all down the chimney, or it got there because someone grew trees, cut them down, and sold them, someone else worked hard, got paid, bought the tree, took it home, set it up, decorated it, went to stores, bought presents, wrapped them, and placed them under the tree. One story is a complete fabrication, the other is the truth. Atheists care about and honor the truth. All atheists expect of religious people is that they put down their blinders, conduct their own rigorous, unbiased examination of this world, and reject myths. We know they won''t, but we hold the religious to that responsibility.

[richvart]

elgraz

Congrats on the most racists post have read in years. Calling a black man a "boy" is as bad as calling him the "N" word.

Raving, small minded, racist. That''s the GOP!

[hwy71so]

"elgraz

Congrats on the most racists post have read in years. Calling a black man a "boy" is as bad as calling him the "N" word.

Raving, small minded, racist. That''''s the GOP!

Posted by richvart at 01:12 PM : Jan 04, 2008"

You don''t know ANYthing about politics do you? You just wanted to get your insult in. Just like ALL the democrats on this board...

[richvart]

Hwy71So

Maybe I don''t know anything about politics, but I do know that calling a black man a "boy" is racist and pathetic.

Considering that you defended someone who used the term I would say those words clearly apply to you.