Analysis: Obama Ahead; GOP A Headache

Obama Attains Front-Runner Status; Huckabee Win Roils GOP Race

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Voters in Iowa sent a strong wake-up call to the establishments of both political parties, validating the messages of two candidates battling against Republican and Democratic orthodoxy and machinery. The most unpredictable presidential race in modern political history now heads to a crucial showdown in New Hampshire.

For winners Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, their campaigns could hardly have scripted the results better. Fueled by young voters and an electorate motivated strongly by a desire for change, Democratic voters handed Obama an early mandate for the message he has carried throughout a year in which Hillary Clinton's experience and establishment support appeared nearly insurmountable.

Click here for complete Iowa results.

Huckabee took advantage of a Republican party dispirited by an unpopular president and unexcited by their choices for a presidential standard-bearer. Backed by energized Christian evangelicals, Huckabee toppled Mitt Romney, the only candidate in the GOP field to mount an aggressive, well-funded, traditional Iowa campaign. With relatively no real campaign organization at his disposal, Huckabee relied primarily on a tightly-knit community of Christian conservatives to deliver his victory. The already fluid Republican race is now in near-chaos. Any one of four candidates could still emerge as the winner.

For Hillary Clinton, the party's former front-runner, Iowa delivered a crushing blow, but not a knock-out. In large numbers, Iowans told caucus surveyors they were less concerned about electability and experience, two qualities Clinton used as a basis for her campaign.

Iowa was long viewed as a tough state for Clinton to win. Facing opposition from a veteran of the caucus process in John Edwards and a neighboring senator in Barack Obama, some of the New York Senator's strategists advised her to skip Iowa altogether. It may be a decision she will regret. Every single major Democratic candidate made a full commitment to winning Iowa, turning it into a full-fledged battle.

Clinton's third-place showing effectively shatters any lingering perceptions of her inevitable march to the nomination. A victory in New Hampshire is now crucial to her campaign's future.

Obama's convincing victory could well trigger a series of primary wins. Heading to New Hampshire, Obama is poised to capture the imaginations and votes of independent voters who make up a full third of that state's electorate. Then comes the South Carolina two weeks later where African-Americans will constitute over half of the Democratic primary vote.

Barack Obama's path to the nomination, once a narrow and hazardous road, is now clearly mapped out. With a series of early wins, he may be unstoppable when some 22 states vote on February 5th. He has now captured the front-runner's crown for the Democratic nomination.

While Democrats found clarity in Iowa, the Republicans created confusion. Mike Huckabee's impressive victory will be next to impossible to replicate in New Hampshire, where economic and libertarian-minded GOP voters and independents far outnumber the evangelicals. But, following New Hampshire comes South Carolina, where Huckabee could well attract the kind of devoted following he found in Iowa.

So New Hampshire is looking like a showdown between Romney and John McCain, whose once left-for-dead campaign has surged in the Granite State in recent weeks. Seeking a repeat of his primary victory in 2000, McCain has returned to his "straight talk" style. And he has had the state largely to himself as other candidates swarmed Iowa. McCain and Obama will now fight over New Hampshire’s independent voters, who can participate in either party's.

For Romney, the failure to win Iowa badly cripples him. His strategy was based on sweeping the early contests. Romney has sought to convince a skeptical conservative base of the party that he was one of them and that his recent conversion to core party concerns like abortion, gun control and gay marriage was authentic. The fact that those same conservatives instead rallied around a little-known, under-funded former governor from Arkansas strongly suggests those overtures were rejected.

Rudy Giuliani is still a wild card on the Republican side. His strategy to deemphasize the early contests and make his stands in the larger states that vote later suddenly looks more viable than it did just a week ago. Should Huckabee, McCain and Romney emerge with split decisions in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and even Michigan, Giuliani's time and efforts in Florida could pay off come January 29th. But that’s a big gamble.

Almost all of the Republican candidates have had a turn as the favorite over the past year. After Iowa, the picture remains murkier than ever. For tonight at least, Huckabee is the only winner so far. And Mitt Romney is the only clear loser.

Iowa will make Democrats will feel emboldened, regardless of who emerges as the eventual nominee. Turnout shattered records -- more than 236,000 Democrats voted, including a large number of self-described independents -- up from 125,000 four years ago. For months polls have shown a substantially higher level of excitement among Democrats. Now Iowa voters have proved that is correct.

After a year of speculation, voters have begun to do the talking. The voters of Iowa sent clear signals to candidates of both parties. They picked fresh faces.

[grazinggoat]

Rudy Giuliani is still a wild card on the Republican side. His strategy to deemphasize the early contests and make his stands in the larger states that vote later suddenly looks more viable than it did just a week ago. Should Huckabee, McCain and Romney emerge with split decisions in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and even Michigan, Giuliani''s time and efforts in Florida could pay off come January 29th. But that%u2019s a big gamble.

-Rudy Giuliani''s campaign was like a wet firecracker. It did burst (shyly!) in the pre-run and now it''s all white smoke... lol! He has no credit whatsoever for the 911 events. He did not chose the unfortunate events to take place in his city... unless he was aware of the events prior to them taking place... lol again!

[bhappy2-2]

What we need is a candidate that supports AMERICA. We have had plenty of politicians who support ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS. We need to start DEPORTING ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS and HEAVILY FINE those who support ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS. We MUST SECURE OUR BORDERS and rid OUR COUNTRY of these parasitic ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS. If our politicians refuse to do so WE, THE CITIZENS OF AMERICA, need to REPLACE the treasonous politicians with ones who SUPPORT AMERICA. Failure to act now could result in The United States of America becoming North Mexico. They have an army here already, they only need to arm them. Those who claim "they don''''t want to take over" need to look around, see the way they have ALREADY TAKEN OVER our jobs.
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! GET RID OF THESE ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS, NOW!

[hwy71so]

"Get over it, you uptight, little busy body Mrs. Cravitz. It was nobody''''s business, period. But when George Bush looked this country in the face and lied through his teeth about why he was sending troops to die in Iraq, that was pure 100% evil. It doesn''''t get any dirtier than that. So shove your pathetic puritanical hypocritical values up your uptight a$$! Please. And, oh yeah, Jesus is coming . . . look busy!

Posted by Candide777 at 07:44 PM : Jan 05, 2008"

Ooo, musta struck a nerve.... :p

[candide777]

I did not have s.ex with that woman"...
Yeah, the Democrats'''' hands are clean.
Posted by Hwy71So at 08:01 AM : Jan 05, 2008

Get over it, you uptight, little busy body Mrs. Cravitz. It was nobody''s business, period. But when George Bush looked this country in the face and lied through his teeth about why he was sending troops to die in Iraq, that was pure 100% evil. It doesn''t get any dirtier than that. So shove your pathetic puritanical hypocritical values up your uptight a$$! Please. And, oh yeah, Jesus is coming . . . look busy!

[weezee4bill]

Well ok then, Who will be Obama''s V.P.?????
Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson??? Maybe Oprah????
It''s up to you now New Hampshire...
BILL RICHARDSON FOR PRESIDENT.

[hwy71so]

Who is this Hsu fella again?

[hwy71so]

"Republicans are Liars and Crooks.

Over the last three years, the group of organized, well-financed liars ironically named the %u201CSwift Boat Veterans for Truth,%u201D have come to be synonymous with vicious smears and mendacity. Most honorable people, who have any decency at all, look back at the group%u2019s bogus attacks with disgust and disappointment. These clowns smeared a war hero to help a couple of draft-dodgers, and the Republican Party cheered them on.

Posted by watcher269 at 06:31 AM : Jan 05, 2008"

"I did not have s.ex with that woman"...

Yeah, the Democrats'' hands are clean.

[watcher269-2009]

In 2004, Swifties were closely tied to the Bush administration, particularly Karl Rove. Care to guess who these guys are rallying behind now? John McCain.


Hiring in the U.S. slowed more than forecast in December and unemployment jumped to a two-year high, raising the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by half a point this month to ward off a recession.

Payrolls rose by 18,000, capping the worst year for job creation since 2003, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased to 5 percent from 4.7 percent in November, while the Institute for Supply Management said growth in U.S. service industries cooled last month.


So much for the Tax Cuts creating New Jobs for Americans!

[watcher269-2009]

Research by The Nation into Federal Election Commission records of the group%u2019s top twenty donors reveals that they%u2019ve been remarkably active in this cycle, contributing and bundling nearly $200,000 to presidential candidates. This does not bode well. During the last presidential campaign, the wealthy backers of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth %u2014 now rebranded as Swift Vets and POWs for Truth %u2014 didn%u2019t do their real dirty work until the general election, where as a tax-exempt 527 group they operated outside the restraints of direct campaign contributions. We may wish we were done with the Swift Boaters, but they aren%u2019t done with us.

In 2004 the top twenty donors all gave (with one exception) at least $50,000 to the group. The top three %u2014 Houston home builder Bob Perry, Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens and billionaire drugstore impresario and investor Harold Simmons %u2014 gave a combined $9.5 million ($4.45 million, $3 million and $2 million, respectively). Calculating the influence of these and the slightly less wealthy Swift Boat donors during this cycle is a touch more complicated than simply adding up their contributions. Each one exerts far more influence as a bundler, given the federal restrictions on individual giving, which limit donors to a maximum of $4,600 per cycle. So The Nation looked not only at the contributions of the donors themselves but also at those of their family members and employees.

[watcher269-2009]

Republicans are Liars and Crooks.

Over the last three years, the group of organized, well-financed liars ironically named the %u201CSwift Boat Veterans for Truth,%u201D have come to be synonymous with vicious smears and mendacity. Most honorable people, who have any decency at all, look back at the group%u2019s bogus attacks with disgust and disappointment. These clowns smeared a war hero to help a couple of draft-dodgers, and the Republican Party cheered them on.

[spellingtest]

Hillary should drop out and endorse Obama. Although Id like to see what she has on him as far as the opposition research we have heard rumors about. Also, its good to have her in the race so the rightwingers are distracted as long as possible.

http://politicsnerd.blogspot.com/

[d00711]

Don''t let them fool you. OBAMA. could and will win. And I tell you who is going to elect him. NOT THE DEMOCRATS NOT The republicans. BUT THE TRUE AMERICANS. OBAMA. will cause the biggest Political party cross over in the history of the united states OBAMA. candidacy in effect will REDEFINE political ideology. THIS election Will not be democrats vrs republicans IT will be.the decent average American folk united again.ELECTING someone to finally bring change. In our heart we know in both political parties our good Americans out number
American that place party first but in our true America
The America our country really stands for.
The America that has real patriots
The America that goes to a baseball game (just to take our children)
The America that sends our children to war. Not cause we want to.
But cause America has ask. No questions ask.!
OUR AMERICA UNITED AGAIN WILL ELECT HIM. and may GOD BLESS YOU

[hwy71so]

Are you talking a Jack or a Ted Kennedy?

[logicanada]

Standing on the outside looking in I''d say a lot of you are sure looking a gift horse in the mouth. With a candidate like Obama, you have the opportunity to soon be replacing a ''Nixon'' with a ''Kennedy''. For the sake of your children, you should be dancing in the streets.

[hwy71so]

"Raving, small minded, racist. That''''''''s the GOP!

Posted by richvart at 01:12 PM : Jan 04, 2008"

THIS is was I was referring to.

As to the "boy" thing; I was thinking age too. You''ve got to admit he does look young. Him and Edwards both.

[sunseeker6]

I speak as an illinois Taxpayer. Obama has done NOTHING as a Senator from IL. Here is how he has spent his time as Senator: Writes book, goes on book tour, appears on Oprah, visit South Africa, tries to get funding for poor South Africa, campaigns for President. Pretty impressive record for Senator. Oh yeah, he has also given a speech saying he will take away tax refunds to pay for his health care plan- meaning take away from the working people to give to the welfare people. This great nation will sink even faster if he becomes President, and Huckebee won''t be much better. What the **LL was Iowa thinking?

[langx]

OBAMA AS OUR PRESIDENT..............WHAT A JOKE. WE NEED A MAN FOR PRESIDENT, NOT A BOY.

Posted by elgraz


Don''t tell me you voted for Bush right.

And on the atheist comment.

It''s been 2000 years since Jesus and mohammed lived.

I''ll take my chances neither are coming back.

[langx]

It surprises me that some would support a President who puts his hand over his heart for the National Anthem as he urinates over the the Constitution every chance he gets.

A President who would rather veto a bill that would pay
members of the armed forces there bonuses to protect the Iraqi Government form lawsuits.

I''ll take the guy who realizes fake patriotism when he sees it.

He just happened to see the lies of the Bush admin running up to war.

[langx]

It surprises me that some would support a President who puts his hand over his heart for the National Anthem as he urinates over the the Constitution every chance he gets.

A President who would rather veto a bill that would pay
members of the armed forces there bonuses to protect the Iraqi Government form lawsuits.

I''ll take the guy who realizes fake patriotism when he sees it.

[clestes-2009]

singinrick,

Good question! What has this country come to?? A debt that tripled, 3800 US troops dead, 28,000 wounded and in a hospital that is not equipted to handle them because the man that sent them there had no idea of what he was doing. An economy that is sliding into a recession that will be very bad. A sterling reputation ruined. The rest of the world ignoring us, waiting for the next president so they can actually work on getting world issues solved.

What indeed have we come to??????????????

I wonder if