Why Huckabee Won

Evangelicals Boost Former Ark. Governor To Victory In Iowa GOP Caucuses

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott analyzes Mike Huckabee's victory in the GOP Iowa caucuses.

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Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucuses in Iowa on the strength of religion and values, according to a CBS News poll of attendees entering caucus sites on Tuesday night.

Evangelicals put in a strong showing at the caucuses - they made up an overwhelming 6 in 10 of attendees - and Huckabee was their darling, garnering 46 percent of their support in the crowded Republican field.

Participants in the Republican caucuses wanted a candidate who shared their moral values and religious beliefs, and Huckabee was their choice on both counts.

Forty-five percent of caucus-goers said they were looking for a candidate who "shares my values" when deciding whom to support, compared to a third who wanted a candidate who says what he believes, and 14 percent who want a candidate with experience.

Among those who wanted a candidate that shared their values, 44 percent supported Huckabee, while only 26 supported his chief competition, Mitt Romney.

Huckabee also picked up one-third of the voters who wanted a candidate who says what he believes. Romney could only manage 14 percent, while John McCain won 16 percent of these caucus-goers. Romney performed best among voters who were seeking experience: 37 percent supported him. McCain also did well in this group with 35 percent.

Having a candidate who shared their religious beliefs was important to two-thirds - 67 percent -- of voters at the Republican caucuses. Thirty-six percent said it mattered a great deal to their decision on whom to support, and 31 percent said it mattered somewhat.

Among those saying it mattered a great deal, Huckabee trounced his competitors, winning 56 percent of the vote. Only 15 percent of the GOP caucus-goers said a candidate's religious beliefs did not matter at all. Romney grabbed 40 percent of this group.

On issues and ideology, Huckabee was the conservatives' choice. Forty-five percent of caucus attendees called themselves very conservative, and 35 percent of them supported Huckabee, as did 34 percent of those considering themselves to be somewhat conservative.

Moderates - only 11percent of the pool - split between Romney and McCain, at 26 percent apiece. Only 22 percent of moderates supported Huckabee.

Despite attacks by Romney that Huckabee was weak on the issue of illegal immigration, Huckabee eked out an edge among GOP voters who chose immigration as the most important issue nationally. He also won on the issues of Iraq and the economy, garnering either a third or more support from attendees choosing these or immigration as top.

Huckabee's weakest showing was on the issue of terrorism, the most important issue to 21 percent of attendees. Caucus-goers concerned primarily with terrorism split their vote, with 26 percent for Huckabee, 24 percent for Romney and 22 percent for McCain. While McCain did well among these voters, his strongest showing was among those concerned with the war in Iraq. He won one-quarter of these caucus-goers.

Huckabee also showed strength among women - winning 41 percent of female caucus-goers, compared to only 24 percent for Romney. Among men the race was even, with Huckabee winning 26 percent and Romney 27percent.

He also did well among younger GOP voters, winning 39 percent support among caucus-goers under 45 years old. Romney enjoyed steady levels of support among all age groups, and McCain did best among the oldest attendees.

Poll results are based on a National Election Pool entrance poll conducted by Edison Media Research. Interviews were conducted with 1,600 caucus attendees as they entered caucus sites around the state. The margin of error for the poll is +2 percentage points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[candide777]

And jon, you''''''''d better be right that God doesn''''''''t exist.
Because when you die, it''''''''s too late to change your mind.
Posted by singinrick at 06:10 PM : Jan 04, 2008

Ah, there in lies the reason behind Rick''''s ridiculous superstitions: fear. Fear that there just might really be a god who is so cruel as to punish him for an eternity simply for demanding a scintilla of evidence that he exists before believing. The truth is, Rick, you can''''t be scared into believing something that you don''''t believe. Even if your god really existed, he would see right through your false "belief" in him. You, Rick, like everyone else, demand evidence of what you believe in. But like the townspeople who all claimed to see the beautiful clothes on the Emperor who had none, you are too afraid to admit to us, to yourself and to your god, that you really don''''t believe in him. You have fallen for a huge lie simply because you are a coward. Now, why don''''t you do something useful like go pray that god strikes me dead for calling you what you really are.

[wasatch01-2009]

To me, it seems that Huckabee is all talk. He''s very vague and just comes up with these one-liners. I haven''t heard a detailed plan from Huckabee on anything.

[candide777]

I will gladly concede the point to any Evolutionist that they are descended from chimps...
Posted by Prinzowhales at 01:02 PM : Jan 05, 2008

And I will gladly concede that I have more in common with a chimp who can think rationally than a willfully ignorant creationist who rejects reason in favor of silly and dangerous superstitions that make events like 9/11 possible.

[prinzowhales]

I will gladly concede the point to any Evolutionist that they are descended from chimps...

[candide777]

"-LOL! Anyone who doesn''''t believe they came from a puddle of goo millions of years ago is an idiot!
LOL! Too funny!"
Posted by singinrick

Poor singinrick, too simple to understand that natural selection, when spread over millions of years, (and there is scientific proof that it has been) is far more plausible than the god he believes in, which was created by man a few thousand years ago to explain things they were too ignorant to understand. Rick, the Bible is so full of demonstrably false information, I would think you''d be having some doubts about it, but I guess you are too afraid to question it because it says you''ll be damned to an eternity of hell if you do? Anyone see the beauty of the scam Rick has fallen for?

[candide777]

You wouldn''t want the Taliban running this country -- why would you want a religious extremist like Huckabee? There is fundamentally not one bit of difference and you are fooling yourselves if you think that there is.

[jon2012-2009]

But there are millions of people on this planet who don''''t agree with you and more people in the United States agree with Creation than they do evolution.
Posted by singinrick at 10:16 PM : Jan 04, 2008

It doesn''t really matter what the ignorant masses believe as far as what is considered established in science. What counts is what the scientific community has determined to be the empirical truth. THERE HASN''T BEEN ANY SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS THAT REQUIRED THE OPINIONS OF ANYONE ELSE--Einstein''s equation relating mass and energy, evolution, HIV as the virus that causes AIDS, and now global warming, to name a few.

Einsten''s equation led to the nuclear bomb. The identification of the AIDS virus has produced new generations of drugs that no longer make this disease an automatic death sentence. When you hear about superbugs that are wreaking havoc on otherwise healthy immune systems, that''s Darwinian evolution in action. Both fossils and genetics support evolution, not creationism.

I''m sure if you should experience a medical emergency, you would prefer to avail yourself of the medical advances that science has made possible and that goes as well for the rest of you who don''t believe in evolution. Unless of course you would rather meet your Maker already. If so, tell us about it.

[wendy731]

"Perhaps the reason so many are worried about Mike Huckabee%u2019s current popularity is because he%u2019s actually a guy who believes that the solution to all of our woes is the government, not churches or charities. On Jay Leno%u2019s show, he gave us a glimpse into who he truly is, a guy who leaves the ministry (%u201Cthe stands%u201D) and wants to be part of the government because he feels that government is the answer to everything."

That%u2019s classic liberalism.

Time will tell whether Americans will figure that out or not.


Posted by Charles Mitchell at 08:06 PM on January 04, 2008

[JedMerrill]

Of course, Huckabee''s people had to lie to make it sound like his values were more in line with their values than Romney''s. They explicitly said that he was the one who supported the FMA, where Romney first announced his support of the Federal Marriage Amendment.

The same message replayed 200 times moments before Caucus attendees voted could maybe have swayed things a few points in Huck''s favor.

Truth be told, Romney probably has more "traditional" values than Huckabee, but fear tactics have been known to work, from time to time, when one gets desperate enough.

Yes, I was there for the caucuses. Yes, I was disappointed by Huckabee''s ethics, but this is politics, not religion, right?

Anyway, Mitt will come back, and all of this will be meaningless.

[JedMerrill]

Of course, Huckabee''s people had to lie to make it sound like his values were more in line with their values than Romney''s. They explicitly said that he was the one who supported the FMA, where Romney first announced his support of the Federal Marriage Amendment.

The same message replayed 200 times moments before Caucus attendees voted could maybe have swayed things a few points in Huck''s favor.

Truth be told, Romney probably has more "traditional" values than Huckabee, but fear tactics have been known to work, from time to time.

Yes, I was there for the caucuses.

[ajmarine1]

Memo to AJ Marine:

No, AJ, on this issue, I''''''''m very serious.

Posted by tuckerndfw at 05:17 PM


Sorry Tucker, I should have read more of your posts. Sometimes you are in a more playful mood; I guess this is not one of those times.

[ajmarine1]

Tucker,

I left you a post on the Israeli Warplane site.

[moxford0]

Huck isn''t worth a ***.

[gunownerdan]

"-LOL! Anyone who doesn''t believe they came from a puddle of goo millions of years ago is an idiot!
LOL! Too funny!"
Posted by singinrick

Doesn''t the bible say god created man from a pile of dust, and woman from a rib bone?

[libra127]

The National Academies Press has just released a book entitled "Science, Evolution and Creationism". I HIGHLY recommend that anyone on this forum with any interest at all in the evolution/creationism debate order a copy and read it. It''s only $11.65 and can be ordered online from:

http://www.nap.edu

I especially recommend it to singinrick and mudrose. I think it will answer many of the questions you have posed.

[libra127]

"Like I haven''t heard these childish insulting comments before from evolutionists"

Singinrick - They aren''t meant to be insulting. You''ve heard them before because they are true. I am merely urging you to learn some things about science, what it is, how it operates and why, what it has discovered. It is good to have an open mind and to seek out knowledge. Please take a science course or two !

[moxford0]

It was the American Talaban at its finest

[jbrewster7]

Mike Huckabee won Iowa because he tricked people into thinking he is a "Man of God". According to a recent article published by the Associated Press (A Look at Huckabee, Obama Iowa Victories, Alan Fram 01/04/08)

"Religion played a huge role in Mike Huckabee''s triumph in the Iowa Republican caucuses, though there are some mixed signals for him on the road ahead.

Eight in 10 Huckabee supporters said they are born again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll for The Associated Press and television networks. Another six in 10 said it was very important to share their candidate''s religious beliefs.

In addition, six in 10 Huckabee supporters %u2014 more than his rivals %u2014 said it was most important that their candidate shared their values. Only 4 percent of his backers said they wanted a contender with experience, and 2 percent said they were looking for a Republican who can win the White House in November."

Yet further investigation suggests that his supporters really don''t know Mike Huckabee''s values.

[jbrewster7]

Religion played a huge role in Mike Huckabee''s triumph in the Iowa Republican caucuses, though there are some mixed signals for him on the road ahead.

Eight in 10 Huckabee supporters said they are born again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll for The Associated Press and television networks. Another six in 10 said it was very important to share their candidate''s religious beliefs.

Yet further investigation suggests that his supporters really don''t know Mike Huckabee''s values.

[jbrewster7]

FACT: The ethics commission fined Huckabee $1,000 for failing to report that he paid himself $14,000 from his 1992 U.S. Senate campaign and $43,000 from his 1994 lieutenant governor''s campaign. (Source: POLITICO, Huckabee rivals unearth ethics complaints Kenneth P. Vogel Nov 21, 2007)

FACT: Huckabee accepted more than 300 gifts worth at least $130,000, ranging from $3,700 cowboy boots to a $600 chainsaw. (Source: POLITICO, Huckabee rivals unearth ethics complaints Kenneth P. Vogel Nov 21, 2007)