Independents May Boost Obama In Iowa

Washington Post: Newspaper's Poll Puts Campaigns On Edge, Challenges Traditional Caucus Strategy

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Shailagh Murray and Anne E. Kornblut.

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With two days before Iowans go to the polls, significant support for Sen. Barack Obama from political independents has put rival Democratic campaigns on edge, challenging the traditional model of the state's caucuses as a low-turnout exercise dominated by partisan insiders.

The senator from Illinois received a jolt of momentum late New Year's Eve, when the Des Moines Register's final Iowa poll showed him leading Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) by 32 percent to 25 percent, with former senator John Edwards (N.C.) at 24 percent. But just as striking were two findings that suggest Obama may be succeeding at one of the riskiest gambits of his Iowa campaign, an aggressive push to persuade non-Democrats to participate.

The survey found that more newcomers than regular participants could turn out on Thursday: Overall, 40 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers identified themselves as independents, the poll said, double the percentage from 2004, and 60 percent said they would be attending a caucus for the first time. Both groups preferred Obama.

As rival campaigns immediately challenged the makeup of the Register sample and a poll for CNN-Opinion Research came out showing the race a virtual tie between Clinton and Obama, the candidates spent the first day of the election year courting the shrinking number of uncommitted voters.

Chief Clinton strategist Mark Penn disputed the poll, calling the Register's turnout model "unprecedented" and "out of sync with other polling done in the race," including several recent surveys that showed a statistical dead heat. Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz called the Register model "at odds with history."

Even Obama's campaign was surprised by the large sample of independents, and aides cautioned that it could be overblown. "We're not modeling it that high," senior Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand said of the independent pool. "We love the numbers in the Register poll, but we know this is going to be very tight."

Only a small portion of Iowa's approximately 600,000 registered Democrats have historically shown up on caucus night. Four years ago, about 125,000 voters participated in Iowa's Democratic caucuses; 19 percent called themselves independents. But from the outset of this campaign, Obama's campaign has targeted independents as intensively as it has registered Democrats, bombarding them with phone calls, direct-mail pieces and personal visits.

Obama courts independents as well as Republicans in his stump speech, casting his appeal across party lines as a key to his electability in November. "We've got to reach out to them and invite them into the process of creating change," he said at a rally Tuesday in Des Moines.

All three Democratic front-runners are spending millions of dollars to increase the universe of caucusgoers. According to the Register poll all three are succeeding, with Obama, Clinton and Edwards drawing most of their support from first-timers. But if Obama can produce the large independent turnout that the poll anticipates, he will have transformed at least these Iowa caucuses from a conclave for party regulars to something much more like a typical primary, similar to the first-in-the-nation contest in New Hampshire on Jan. 8.

"The hurdle that we have is getting them to show up and re-register as Democrats, and we know that's not an easy thing for lots of people to do," Hildebrand said. "But people are pretty motivated." The big benefit of the Register poll, he added, is the message it sends to this group. "It shows that they're not alone," he said. "It shows that this is doable."

"It just might work," an energized Obama told a roaring crowd of around 1,000 here Tuesday morning. But he cautioned, "The polls look good, but understand this: The polls are not enough."

Geoff Barrick, who works for an auto parts factory in Marengo and described himself as the "guy everybody wants," offered evidence that there is something to the Obama boom. He voted for Democrat John F. Kerry in 2004, Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and independent Ross Perot in 1992. This year, he is leaning to Obama.

"This is an earnest young man," said Barrick, gesturing to Obama as he shook hands with voters after a recent event in Williamsburg. "I think he's very electable."

At their first campaign events of 2008, Clinton and Edwards gave a nod toward independent voters. Edwards was more explicit, saying that his focus on "corporate greed and corporate power and their iron-fisted grip on our democracy" is roiling not only Democrats but also people across the political spectrum.

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"It's doing it to independents. It's doing it to Republicans," Edwards told an overflowing auditorium at Iowa State University. In a none-too-subtle dig at Obama, Edwards said his arguments come from the heart, rather than the head. "Every one of you can tell the difference between somebody giving an academic speech and somebody who's coming from right here," he said, gesturing toward his chest.

David Bonior, the national campaign manager for Edwards, estimated that the overall turnout on caucus night will be 150,000 -- fewer than the 200,000 or so that the Register poll was predicated on. Edwards's advisers have long believed that lower turnout would favor their candidate, making small crowds and even inclement weather a plus, because it would put a cap on the number of new voters who could show up to support Clinton or Obama.

Clinton has built her campaign on a newer model that relies on first-time caucus attendees. "I hope that as the next 48 hours unfolds, those of you who are still deciding, those of you who have never caucused before, decide you have got to be part of taking our country back," she told a large crowd in Ames on Tuesday morning.

In a brief question-and-answer session after her speech, Clinton fielded questions about immigration and then rural farming, both subjects with broad appeal around the state that are as inclined to appeal to independents and Republicans as Democrats.

For the final stretch, Clinton brought her daughter, Chelsea, and her mother, Dorothy Rodham, out onto the campaign trail. She spoke in a low voice, just a notch above a whisper, part of a muted speaking style she has adopted in recent weeks.

Edwards was joined by his wife, Elizabeth, and their children for a 36-hour bus tour across the state that is scheduled to include overnight stops. The candidates converge in Des Moines on Thursday for caucus rallies before flying to New Hampshire.

Among the hard-core Democrats who make up the caucus's traditional attendance, Obama also received a modest boost Tuesday when Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) told his small but loyal following of Iraq war opponents to pick Obama as their second choice. Kucinich, who is drawing about 1 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, according to this week's Register poll, said if he does not clear the 15 percent threshold for viability in individual precincts on Thursday, he will "strongly encourage" his supporters to opt next for Obama, which they may do under the arcane rules governing the caucuses.

In 2004, Kucinich agreed to share support with Edwards, an arrangement that political observers believe may have contributed to the latter's strong second-place finish. This year, his natural ally is Obama, the only other Democrat in the race who opposed the Iraq war before it started.

[denn034]

Better Obama than Hillary.

[g02342000]

Edwards / Biden is the best ticket for all America, anything less will be as bad as keeping Bush in office forever. America deserves honest men of integrity that will fight for all Americans. Edwards is a true patriot that can make America great, he has the substinance, determination, and will to fight greed, corruption and end the outsourcing of our jobs, His economic, education, health and welfare policies are now being copied by all the candidates. Edwards spoke out months and even years before the others. America needs to think about why are the "Washington Greed, Corruption, Large Corporations and Media" trying to make this a two candidate Democratic race? Edwards is the only one able to win the Presidency from the democratic side, and any republican that is nominated will beat Clinton and/or Obama. Elect someone that cares about America and will make it great for all, John Edwards.

[realpatriot1]

Themagic,

Muslims sons don''t become members of the United Church of Christ or threaten action in Pakistan. Your fear smears don''t stand the test of logic and common sense, are you sure you''re not a Republican?

You''re outright lying about the pledge of allegiance, I saw him on tv reciting the pledge.

Most members of Congress miss a substantial number of votes, especially when they''re campaigning in iowa and New hampshire; some of us think he''s doing more good on the campaign trail. Most memeber of Congress have unpaid parking tickets, in fact their Congressional license plates allow them to park in the middle of the street if they want to.

The path to universal coverage is to make it affordable; those who can''t afford mandated coverage
receive waivers, so there is no universal covergae plan from day one. He tells the truth about this while other candidates lie.

Diplomacy requires setting no pre-conditions prior to negotiating; setting pre-conditions is a means for people to avoid negotiating in good faith(like the U.S. & Vietnam arguing about the shape of the peace table).

He never said he wasn''t taking money from lobbyists he presented proposals to reform the system for everyone but until that happens he has to compete in the system we have. He''s raised more money from regular people than any candidate in history.

There''s no evidence that he was a drug pusher...do you work for Hillary''s campaign?

[tibu987]

Explain to me how Hillary''''s tenure as First Lady equates into all the experience she would like all of us to believe she has.
Brewing tea and planning menus does not give one a any great ability to solve all the ills of the U.S. and the world.
Gimme a break.

Without regard for qualifications,

Women will vote for Hillary.
Blacks will vote for Obama.
Baptists will vote for Baptists.
Catholics will vote for Catholics.
Southerners will vote for southerners.
Mormons will vote for Mormons.
Democrats will straight vote for Democrats.
Republicans will straight vote for Republicans.
Women may vote for looks.
Many will vote for celebrity candidates, face/name recognition.

Perhaps this is the reason we get unqualified people elected to public office in this country.
Unfortunately, nothing can change this pattern as most voters are ignorant of the issues and the political pasts of those on the ticket. The majority of Americans do not read, watch too much TV, and are complacent about the people they vote into office. And yet, they will feel smug and patriotic because they voted.
And so it goes.

"Who is the more foolish...........the fool or the fool that follows him?."

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by tuckerndfw at 02:27 PM : Jan 02, 2008

And I have stated mine. There is not one thing written to prove up your bias ANYWHERE! I have been there, I''ve looked!

Actually there are also two other very good candidates that I would also like to see win this election, as well as HIllary. One of which is NOT Edwards, the fake! They are all people that I think would do everything possible to steer this country in the right direction. But their candadicy has been lacklustre, and their campaigns have rallied no support. You have to be realistic, and place your vote THOUGHT, rather than bias!

[grazinggoat]

CBS News: ''Clinton has built her campaign on a newer model that relies on first-time caucus attendees. "I hope that as the next 48 hours unfolds, those of you who are still deciding, those of you who have never caucused before, decide you have got to be part of taking our country back," she told a large crowd in Ames on Tuesday morning.''

- Hilary is taking the country from the right pocket of the Establishment into the left pocket of the same Establishment. Obama is taking it back to give it back to the independents, to the true grassroot Americans.

[xlib]

I had hoped they would print the story that madame clinton related regarding her harrowing experience going into Bosnia. I understand her plane had to do a corkscrew (fitting) landing and they were chased by gunmen. The only problem is, the pilot does not remember it that way. Also on the plane was cheryl crow (one square please), Sinbad (the funny guy) and little Chelsea who was only 15 years old at the time.
Seems that ms clinton has a real problem relating things as they occured. Either that or everyone else is wrong.
Did you lefties hear the one about her forging the peace process between Northern and Southern Ireland?? Oh yea, all carried out over tea.
Then there''s the one about her babysitting the young children of migrant workers in her Chicago suburb.
The list is endless.
I still want to know what she was doing with the over 1,100 FBI folders on her supposed "enemies".
Yep, she''s a winner.

[iceman_1960]

"There is a problem with this website..."

Some scripting error.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by tuckerndfw at 01:55 PM : Jan 02, 2008

You can argue till the cows come home, but your prior posts already indicate where you come from. You are so blinded by your bias that you can''t see what''s right before your face.

You have absolutely nothing on which to base any of your claims. GO READ UP!!!!! Read up on every one of these candidates! You haven''t a clue!

[grazinggoat]

CBS News: ''Overall, 40 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers identified themselves as independents, the poll said, double the percentage from 2004, and 60 percent said they would be attending a caucus for the first time. Both groups preferred Obama. ''

- I like this independent America when it feels it''s been robbed by its actual president and his thieves establishment supporters. It stands up and stares at the only hope its grassroots present now: Obama. Way to go Barack!

[iceman_1960]

RE: Post by tuckerndfw at 01:48 PM : Jan 02, 2008

Thank you.

I wasn"t actually expecting you to admit you didn"t have a source, that you just made up that statistic on the fly.

But whatever... White males aren"t perfect.


You have a nice day.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by tuckerndfw at 01:28 PM : Jan 02, 2008

Well if you white male bigots would get off your assinine insecurities and look a candidate straight in the eye instead of the boobs, it might help!

But when you automatically close you mind to what a female says, no wonder we''re in such deep do do! And that''s why half of you males are divorced!

Get real!

The ONLY problem you men see in Hillary comes from your insecurities, and unwillingness to a strong, powerful, SMART woman in the White HOuse! And you want to blame her philandering husband''s action on HER!

Even if he was a philanderer, he was still one of the BEST presidents this country has had this century! And Hillary Clinton has the moxy, and fighting spirit, that is going to be needed to step in the White HOuse door and get the ball rolling to get this country on its feet! And in her support group is one of the BEST presidents our country has seen!

That is a totally win win situation!

[gunownerdan]

"Who needs semi-automatics to hunt deer or protect their homes?"

Posted by realpatriot1

Who are you to dictate what kind of guns people can or cannot use for hunting or defense?
Semi-automatic firearms are some of the most popular guns in America and they are very effective for hunting and defense.

[iceman_1960]

RE: Post by tuckerndfw at 01:40 PM : Jan 02, 2008

I"ve never seen a source that the majority of voters in the last presidential election were white Anglo-Saxon Protestants.

I don"t believe it"s true.

I"ll believe it when I see a reputable source.

[iceman_1960]

...unless German Americans are "Anglo-Saxons" ????

Or Italian-Americans...

(Don"t ever call an Irsihman that, though, or all you"ll want for Christmas is your two front teeth)

[iceman_1960]

One passing shot:

"the United States of America, a nation in which the majority of voters are white, anglo saxon protestants"

Whoops...

They"ve been a minority now for quite some time.

Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Racial_demographics_of_the_United_States

[poopusbuttus]

I have a haircut appointment.

I"m going to be Grand Marshall in my town"s "Straight White Male Pride" parade next weekend.

Maybe I"ll see you there.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Iceman_1960


It''s not a 400 dollar haircut is it? Or perhaps it''s a 400 dinar haircut.....

[marcodele]

I have never voted strictly Dem or Repub ever. But in 2008, it is very important that the neocon movement be stopped. Reagan''s republican party has been highjacked by the Bush Dynasty.

[iceman_1960]

"You have gotten so ridiculous it"s hardly worth my time replying." - tuckerndfw

Don"t worry, I was just leaving.

I have a haircut appointment.

I"m going to be Grand Marshall in my town"s "Straight White Male Pride" parade next weekend.

Maybe I"ll see you there.

[realpatriot1]

tucker, I''m well aware that America has bigots I just don''t think they have the power to sway elections.

The true bigots won''t vote for any Democrat. Plenty of independents and moderate Republicans could vote for Obama(or at least listen which is all that can be expected)-I''m not sure how many would listen to Hillary if sh were running against McCain or Guliani. According to the polls she would have difficulty with Huckabee.

There isn''t anything left for the GOP to throw at Obama that hasn''t been thrown at him already and he still beats all comers in the polls. That leads me to believe that race and gender and religion isn''t what the decisive majority of Americans are concerned about.