Poll Shows Obama, Huckabee Lead In Iowa

Des Moines Register Puts Democratic Senator, Former GOP Arkansas Governor Ahead

(AP)  Presidential contenders rang in the 2008 election year with near-constant campaigning as a poll showed Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee leading their rivals with three days remaining before the crucial Iowa caucuses.

Anonymous phone calls and a negative campaign commercial that vanished into thin air also spiced up the race, and not even New Year's Eve was off-limits to campaign oratory.

The poll by the Des Moines Register showed Obama, an Illinois senator, with the support of 32 percent of those surveyed, compared to 25 percent for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and 24 percent for former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Among Republicans, Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, had the backing of 32 percent of those surveyed, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had 26 percent.

Other polls have shown far closer races in recent days within both parties, and the leading candidates are engaged in a virtual nonstop round of personal appearances across the state that provides the first test of the race for the White House.

"I'm taking a risk, I know I am," said Huckabee, who previewed an ad sharply critical of Romney during the day after first assuring reporters he would not air it on TV. Romney has aired ads critical of Huckabee in recent days.

The three top Democratic rivals campaigned in far more traditional fashion, and Obama, Edwards and Clinton combined for more than a dozen appearances before time ran out on 2007.

Obama jubilantly touted his lead in the Register poll during the last of five rallies, telling his audience that he had a six-point lead - and people in the crowd corrected him by noting it was actually a seven-point margin.

"We just might pull this thing off, Iowa," said Obama, seen at left carrying his daughter. "Who would have thunk it?"

Clinton got the distinction for the last event of the year - in downtown Des Moines with her husband, the former president.

"We want our government back, we want our democracy back," Edwards told an audience in Storm Lake. Locked in a three-way race, the former North Carolina senator claimed late momentum for a campaign built around his pledge to fight special interests in Washington.

Clinton, a former first lady bidding to become the first female president, seemed primed to counter. "I submit to you there isn't anybody running who's taken on more special interests and taken on more incoming fire and survived them than I have," she told a crowd in Keokuk.

Obama stuck doggedly to the campaign pitch that has made him the most serious black presidential candidate in history. "You can't afford to settle for the same old politics," he told a crowd in Perry.

The poll said Obama was benefiting handsomely from an influx of first-time caucus-goers. If so, that meant his finish in the state would hinge to an extraordinary degree on the ability of his organization to turn out supporters.

In yet another sign of uncertainty, nearly a third of those polled said they could still change their minds.

In a gesture that reflected the hand-to-hand nature of the political struggle, Obama's campaign arranged to have a former Clinton supporter, Marlin Eineke, introduce the Illinois senator to the crowd. The political convert said he was attracted to Obama's positive campaign.

The Iowa caucuses are the crucial first contest in political parties' state-by-state process of selecting presidential nominees. The caucuses - simultaneous meetings held at 1,784 locations statewide - begin the process of selecting delegates to the parties' national presidential nominating conventions in August and September.

New Hampshire holds its first-in-the-nation primary five days after Iowa's caucuses, and if history is a guide the roster of candidates will be far slimmer by then. Already, Democratic senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Joseph Biden of Delaware have spoken about dropping out if they fail to meet their expectations in Iowa.

With three days remaining until the caucuses, several Democratic voters reported receiving anonymous telephone calls from self-proclaimed pollsters spreading unflattering information.

Some calls said Obama's health plan would leave millions uninsured. Others said Edwards' plans for a troop withdrawal from Iraq were dangerous or that Clinton would lead the party to defeat in the fall.

One Democrat, Michael Hancock of Coralville, said he had received an automated call reminding him that an important college football game would be televised Thursday night at the same time the caucuses were held.

He said he promptly hung up his phone before concluding it was a "transparent attempt to depress turnout from some people." Neighboring Kansas plays in the Orange Bowl Thursday night.

No group has taken responsibility for any of the calls.

The newspaper poll, conducted by phone from Dec. 27 to Dec. 30, reported virtually no change in Huckabee's lead over Romney since a previous survey about a month ago.

Romney, the former Republican governor of Massachusetts, used his personal wealth to jump out to a sizable early lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Huckabee's support among evangelical Christians allowed him to overtake Romney in surveys in recent weeks, although he has more lately fallen back under the weight of criticism of his record as governor of Arkansas as well as his own campaign missteps.

Stepping before more than a dozen television cameras Monday, Huckabee first swore off negative ads in the Iowa race, then previewed a commercial in which he was seen saying of his rival: "If a man's dishonest to obtain a job, he'll be dishonest on the job. Iowans deserve better."

He acknowledged the risk to his campaign of allowing Romney's critical commercials to go unanswered, but said of his own supporters: "If they abandon us now because we are not going negative I would be surprised."

"If you gain the whole world and lose your soul, what have you profited?" asked the Baptist preacher-politician.

Huckabee is trying to outflank Romney in their race for primacy in Iowa - and in the national polls.

He told reporters one of the reasons he originally intended to launch a negative commercial was because Romney had assailed a third candidate, Sen. John McCain. McCain has made a relatively modest effort in Iowa, and Huckabee could benefit in the campaign's final few days if he could peel away some Republicans who had been leaning toward the Arizona senator.

Huckabee also suggested a two-way debate in the final two days that would allow Romney and him to share a stage.

Romney had no immediate response to that as he made his final campaign rounds of 2007.

He launched an upbeat new commercial that said it was "time to turn around Washington."

At the same time, he was freshly critical of Huckabee's record as governor, saying voters would be put off by his rival's position on immigration and the pardons he had granted while governor.

Three protesters seeking a commitment from Huckabee to end the Iraq war were arrested during the day after refusing to leave his office. Police said the three were charged with criminal trespass and released.

McCain had New Hampshire to himself, and he defended himself against Romney's ad that points out he opposed President Bush's tax cut in 2001. "There was no restraint in spending" to accompany the cuts, he said.

[simonsez40]

Sooner or later the TRUTH will come out!!


Posted by Rob-is-right

So do you think the truth on the Bush administration will ever come out? Bush''s heinous acts of corruption mushroom any crimes any other administrations have committed........

[alanrobisch]

Since Clinton left office the budget deficit and public debt has soared, violent crime has skyrocketed, unemployment has gone up(it was 3.97% when he left office), and American credibility and prestige in the world has reached its lowest point in our history.


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Posted by realpatriot1 at 07:11 PM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse

Lets see she tried to complete and pass into law a single payer health insurance plan. Believes in larger amounts of welfare payments. also I remembering precisely that clinton argued we could not balance the budget but the republicans fought to reduce govt spending to balance the budget. In either case the reason for a balanced budget was dot com bubble which blew after Clinton left office. Not his fault. It was not his actions that balanced the budget but an incredibly vibrant econoomy based on the belief that any internet company could make much money

[alanrobisch]

Since Clinton left office the budget deficit and public debt has soared, violent crime has skyrocketed, unemployment has gone up(it was 3.97% when he left office), and American credibility and prestige in the world has reached its lowest point in our history.


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Posted by realpatriot1 at 07:11 PM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse

Lets see she tried to complete and pass into law a single payer health insurance plan. Believes in larger amounts of welfare payments. also I remembering precisely that clinton argued we could not balance the budget but the republicans fought to reduce govt spending to balance the budget. In either case the reason for a balanced budget was dot com bubble which blew after Clinton left office. Not his fault. It was not his actions that balanced the budget but an incredibly vibrant econoomy based on the belief that any internet company could make much money

[realpatriot1]

erasmus6,

That''s not his daughter.

alanrobisch,

I''m not a Hillary supporter but it makes me laugh when conservatives call her a socialist. It''s the Republican President and Congress that spent us into
being a Chinese creditor. It was Clinton who balanced the budget while growing the economy, lowering crime, and getting people off the welfare rolls and onto the payrolls.

I know conservatives would prefer to ignore that but there''s no debate that is the facts.

Since Clinton left office the budget deficit and public debt has soared, violent crime has skyrocketed, unemployment has gone up(it was 3.97% when he left office), and American credibility and prestige in the world has reached its lowest point in our history.

[samthetvcat]

pt 3 - not that it''s really possible to collectively organize a three-way tie, although the voting IS public . . .

[samthetvcat]

PS I wonder if the reason Iowans are so undecided is because it''s like going to a restaurant and having a lot of choice - do you feel like pizza or a burger or chicken pot pie? Everybody at the table starts to suggest pizza and then you start imagining getting the pizza and then you think about how after two or three slices you''ll start wishing you had a burger and fries . . .

Every time one of the candidates comes to the forefront in the polls, I think people start to imagine what it would actually be like to have them in our lives the next 4 years and think ''yikes - let''s see what else is on the menu''. I could totally see Iowans deciding that they don''t collectively want to make that choice for the country and decide to order ''family style'' (everybody orders something different and they share = 3-way tie) and they pass the responsibility onto the next state . . . otherwise their status as first caucus could be in jeopardy in the future if people become unhappy with their choice . . .

[samthetvcat]

As an Obama supporter, I''m really glad to see this poll showing Obama in front because it was looking like he was starting to lose his momentum the last couple of days . . . polls were saying Edwards was surging, Hillary''s been surging nationally after the Bhutto assassination, and the media was showing the crowds behind him looking less excited than Edwards'' and Hillary''s (which maybe was more a matter of timing (?)). As well, it was sounding like Hillary had a really strong logistical plan to get people to caucus and that Obama''s 18-24''s were going to flake.

That being said, each of the candidates now has a recent poll showing them leading in Iowa, and many of the polls show them in a statistical dead heat. I''m still scared for Obama because apparently 75% of his supporters are first-time caucus-goers whereas only about 50% of Hillary and Edwards'' are first-timers.

I suppose it''s entirely possible the dead heat that''s showing in the polls might actually turn out to be the result in Iowa! But if one of the 3 ends up coming in a far third, that might be fatal . . . Thursday ought to be interesting!

[adiant-2009]

It feels so good that we have three outstanding front runners in the Democratic Party. It''s a pity there can''t be a combination of the good about the three of them. Hillary with her experience. Obama with his alleged new vision. And Edwards, Edwards, the only one who has the guts to aim his political guns where they belong if by any means we have a real hope: stop corporate America from doing so much damage to our people, to our country and to the world. Monsanto (food chain), Rockefeller Foundation (dominion over oil worldwide, and also funding universities for GMO --Bush Father''s Excecutive Order declaring that GMO corn is substantially similar to natural non-manipulated corn, and now Bush Sons buying great extensions of land in Argentina to extract water for sale and to manufacture proteins for Asia and Europe, just like Ted Turner--, Kellog, Carnegie. Who is going to face those world threats? The only one who dares to say something against the few who have the world hosgage of their greed is Edwards. So, out of the three, I''d pick Edwards, even if he is not leading in Iowa. And I will when the thing comes to New Jersey.

[alanrobisch]

That''''s why I''''m going for Hillary. She knows we have to have corporations for our economy. But I her trust to get in there and work for win win situations for both the corporations and the people. She tried to before, but the republiCONS cried socialism, and their followers almost wet their paints crying "How high" when republican leaders said "Leap frog!"

Blind fools!


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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 05:20 PM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse
Do you like her because she is a socialist or because she is a liar or just a socialist liar with not a single value she''d hang onto if she thought it would prevent her from being elected.

She is in this for power and nothing else. How she will use it who knows. Likely if she can to substantially increase spending. she has already said she supports further free?? health care which will cost between 80 and 110 billion dollars and she has promised to eliminate the reductions in taxes that bush provided.

this may have the affect of sending us into a serious recession

[erasmus6]

"Poll Shows Obama, Huckabee Lead In Iowa"

Woop dee doo.


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, holds Olivia Taylor,3, during a rally in Perry, Iowa..."

So what? He is using his own daughter now to get ahead? This guy is beginning to make me ill.