The Giuliani-Huckabee Showdown

National Review Online: Nomination Fight That Would Tear GOP In Two A Distinct Possibility

(National Review Online)  This column was written by David Freddoso.

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Less than a week remains before Republicans begin the long and arduous road to choosing a nominee. It begins in Iowa on Jan. 3, and continues at least through Feb. 5, the day that more than 20 states will select delegates to the convention in Minnesota’s Twin Cities next fall.

The possibility for idle speculation is endless. But there are a number of things we know for sure. First, the rise of former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is more than a passing phenomenon. Polls show that his religious conservative voters are highly dedicated and motivated - 65 percent of his backers will “definitely” vote for him in Iowa, better than any other candidate. They could even prove to be better organized than his shoestring campaign would suggest, thanks to churches and pastors in that state and several others.

Second, although former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is struggling and slipping badly in national and key state polls, he is almost certain to win hundreds of delegates by the time Super Tuesday is over, no matter how poorly he does before that date. New York alone guarantees him 101 delegates (about 1,190 are required to win). Throw in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Delaware (all of which have adopted winner-take-all), and he cannot do worse than 201 delegates - not even if he fails to take Florida’s 57.

These two certainties point to one possible outcome that should alarm Republicans of all ideological stripes - the religious and the irreligious, the right-to-lifers, the gun-rights advocates, the supply-siders, and the neoconservatives alike. A two-way knock-down-drag-out fight between Huckabee and Giuliani could completely destroy the coalition that Ronald Reagan built by combining social and economic conservatives with anti-Communists.

In one corner stands Mike Huckabee, whose campaign speaks freely of destroying the conservative movement. “It’s gone,” said Ed Rollins, his national campaign chairman. “The breakup of what was the Reagan coalition - social conservatives, defense conservatives, antitax conservatives - it doesn’t mean a whole lot to people anymore.” Naturally, Rollins points to Huckabee as the figure to form the new coalition.

Huckabee, a Baptist minister, has an appeal that doubles as his most unattractive quality. Far from merely appealing to Christians or engaging in normal expressions of faith, he is consciously making himself the “Jesus candidate” in order to win the Republican nomination. It is a strategy exploitative of faith, yet it has worked so far because so many Republicans are Christians and so many are also unhappy with the rest of the Republican field.

Lost in the so-called “floating cross” controversy over Huckabee’s Christmas ad was the ad’s overt use of Christianity to win an election. When Huckabee reminded Iowans in the ad that “what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ,” it obviously had a lot less to do with glorifying the Lord on Dec. 25 than it did with convincing a certain kind of Iowan to caucus for Huckabee on Jan. 3. Huckabee’s campaign has been replete with such uses of faith, including other ads touting his Christian leadership and gratuitous quotations from Isaiah. Asked about his surge in the polls, Huckabee said earlier this month, “There’s only one explanation for it, and it’s not a human one. It’s the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of five thousand people.”

As he flashes his cross for all to see, Huckabee and his campaign routinely launch populist tirades against economic conservatives, denouncing “the Club for Greed” and the “Washington-Wall Street Axis.” He is denouncing people whose support he will need if he wins the nomination - and considering his record of raising taxes, one might expect a more conciliatory approach. He has adopted the language of President Bush’s “compassionate conservatism,” also known as “bigger government.” He prefers talks with Iran to further confrontation, but beyond that has been far from articulate on foreign policy.

In the opposite corner stands former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the fading frontrunner and Huckabee’s polar opposite. Giuliani’s personal life is the dream of every opposition researcher. Any dip into the New York Post archives on the thrice-married Catholic Giuliani - who his Church may come to criticize along the way - gives credence to Hillary Clinton as a champion of family values.

Giuliani is pro legal abortion, and this alone will cost him many votes, both in the primary and in a general election against a pro-abortion Democrat. Unlike Huckabee, Giuliani looks to be trying to attract Republicans who disagree with him on key issues, yet his nomination would nonetheless create the greatest demand for a third-party candidate since 1996, or even 1992.

Giuliani’s record on taxes and his understanding of complex economic issues such as health insurance are his main selling points for the average conservative. But on just about everything else - including gun rights - he is a Republican apostate. While distancing himself from Bush’s failure of “compassionate conservatism,” Rudy advocates an even more aggressive foreign policy that may include war with Iran. For those already firmly in his camp, this is terrific - for many others on the Right, it is terrifying.

A Huck-Rudy showdown would be a primary fight between two candidates with almost nothing in common. It would polarize and tear apart the Republican party just as the national electorate is currently polarized.

Such a disaster is a very distinct possibility. If Huckabee takes out Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, or else heads off a resurgent McCain in South Carolina (or even Michigan), everything could come down to the close race developing between Huckabee and Giuliani in Florida. By the time Feb. 5 is over, Huckabee and Giuliani could be the clear frontrunners with their delegate counts, and more than half the convention delegates will have already been awarded.

For the late contests, Republicans of one stripe would decide that Rudy is the only man who can stop Huckabee. And Republicans of a different stripe would fall in behind Huckabee as the only man who can stop Rudy. This bitter fight would also leave many Republican voters with a paralyzing choice between two poor general election candidates. From there, it becomes a Republican blood feud unless a third candidate can force a brokered convention.

[blueskighs]

It is so painful to watch the silencing of the conservative voice in America. The takeover of the Republican party by evangelical christians will be the death of this country ... not liberals. Social and economic convservatism cannot be on the same political platform. Conservatism is for SMALL GOVERNMENT and personal choice. No matter how mistaken or immoral that might be. We do not have a conservative party anymore. The two political parties are only representative of social liberals vs. social conservatives. Having a baptist minister as the Presidential Republican Candidate who manipulates his political flock with folksy sermons on his own PUBLIC REPENTANCE of negative campaign adds would only validate that we are no longer a nation of intelligent individuals worthy of superpower status. We are simply a nation of perpetual children looking for a higher authority, now our government, to deliver us from the evil reality of living that we have become so woefully ill-equipped to handle. The infantilization of America will be complete and our reign as a super power will be done.

[Ruidu]

Iowa poll numbers are starting to emerge with Mike Huckabee 2 to 1 over Mitt Romney. It appears in the final moments before the polls, Iowa voters are looking for a candidate with integrity rather than money.

[mediapreachr]

No offense,but look at Giuliani''s picture-the guy looks like the Joker from one of the Batman movies(played by Jack Nicholson).He''s not real anymore,he''s a cartoon-looks like a sadistic clown.On the other hand Huckabee looks like real person.

[gkc99]

"On the right side,Huckabee makes no effort to show his emotions,his face is relaxed but at the same time his eyes are wide open,he''''s paying attention(at you);he''''s content and sincere."--Posted by mediapreachr


Huckleberry has wide open Charles Manson / Jim Jones type crazy eyes!

Both of those preachers were sincere too!

If Huckie grew a long beard, he''d have Osama Bin Laden type wide open eyes!

Enough with the religious nuts!

[angela62-2009]

We''''ve seen why "Conservatives" like Thompson have done to the nation... I''''d say that''''s why he''''s not getting any support.

No, we have NOT seen what conservatives like Thompson have done to the nation. Bush is not a true conservative. "Compassionate conservatism" is nothing but repackaged liberalism. We''ve seen next to no backbone on spending from Bush.

Religious Reich? Seig Heil? Fascists party? Nice inflammatory rhetoric, but name-calling gets us nowhere. I happen to strongly dislike Huck''s religious pandering, and feel a Huckabee victory would take the Republican party down a path I won''t follow. But the first person to invoke Hitler in a debate has lost.

[mcvet]

No way will a man who accused me of being a RACIST will ever get my vote...shame on you Reverend...now you pretend to be strong on illegal immigration...LOL...


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Posted by adi2000 at 12:40 AM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse

Well OF COURSE you clowns aren''t racist! Those Hoods and Sheets you loser wore were just??? Like YOU didn''t support the fascist and now you want your kids out of those schools that were De-segregated?? The FACT that WE the PEOPLE do not want tax supported Religion doesn''t matter to you freaks does it?? God where do you people come from? Sieg Heil Y''all.

[mcvet]

A Republican party unified, not divided, behind a candidate that exemplifies all of the core principles of conservatism, not just a select few.

THAT is what we would see with a Fred Thompson resurgence allowing him to take the nomination out from underneath the childish half-conservative squabblers.

Let''''s hope the voters across the country realize that Thompson is what the party needs, before it is too late.


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Posted by angela62 at 02:02 AM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse

We''ve seen why "Conservatives" like Thompson have done to the nation... I''d say that''s why he''s not getting any support. MAYBE if you''d have shown something during the 6 years you fascist had control, you''d have something to point too... you do not... well unless you can count that terrible exercise where the leaders of the Religious Reich called Congress back so they could interfer in the lives of ONE family! Boy was that a disgusting thing or what? Sieg Heil Y''all.

[mcvet]

A Huckabee vs. Obama race would be the best thing that could happen to this country. Both Hillary and Romney would give us a cut-throat race, both have a history of dishonest campaigning. Romney is slick, Hillary is certainly not slick. But both would destroy the country for their own campaign success. Huckabee and Obama both appear to be good men, who would discuss their widely different views of the country with civility and hopefully, with honesty. All I would ask of the fine citizens of this country is that you check out this website, to take an in-depth look at Mr. Romney. www.trueromney.com

Posted by gdbforever at 06:27 AM : Jan 01, 2008
+ report abuse

Oh PLEASE!! There is NO honest canidate on the Fascist side here! There is NO canidate worthy of concideration this time EXCEPT the three challenging for the Democratic nomination. Huck doesn''t have a PRAYER in the North, Midwest, West or anywhere outside the fascist south. Why not be honest though? You''re a member of the Religious Reich and YOU think you can use Obama''s race to put ANOTHER "Godly" Man in the White House! ROFLMAO Sieg Heil and Amen

[cs4466]

Hillary 2008! WOOHOO!

[gdbforever]

A Huckabee vs. Obama race would be the best thing that could happen to this country. Both Hillary and Romney would give us a cut-throat race, both have a history of dishonest campaigning. Romney is slick, Hillary is certainly not slick. But both would destroy the country for their own campaign success. Huckabee and Obama both appear to be good men, who would discuss their widely different views of the country with civility and hopefully, with honesty. All I would ask of the fine citizens of this country is that you check out this website, to take an in-depth look at Mr. Romney. www.trueromney.com