Campaign '07: The Year That Was And Wasn't

(CBS)  This analysis was written by Vaughn Ververs, senior political editor for CBSNews.com.

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Year one of the longest presidential campaign in history comes to a close with far less clarity that it had when candidates began announcing their intentions and raising money last January. After thousands of speeches, dozens of televised debates, hundreds of millions of dollars raised and spent, 2008 dawns with the nominations of both major political parties completely up for grabs.

But it hasn't been an uneventful year by any measure and the events of 2007 are almost certain to have as much to do with the outcome of the nomination battles, and the general election itself, as what happens between now and November. We may yet be surprised at which arguments, flubs or utterances made in the past year come back to play a starring role in the general election, but here is a look back at the developments and dynamics that shaped the first half of campaign 2008.

A New Force Emerges: While it can be said that every formal announcement is an important event in a campaign, the entry of Illinois Senator Barack Obama was a unique event, one which changed the very nature of the race.

Standing on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois on a frigid February day, his formal announcement instantly transformed the Democratic nominating contest. Four years earlier, Obama was a little-known state senator. His electrifying speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention and subsequent elevation to the U.S. Senate made Obama an instant superstar -- not just a fresh face but a generational leader.

His ability to match, and early on to surpass, the fundraising machine of Senator Hillary Clinton demonstrated that Obama was no flash-in-the-pan phenom but a real contender. A different kind of black leader, one not defined by the civil rights movement of the past, Obama has amassed a coalition of highly educated progressives, African Americans and independents and enters the first primary contests locked in a dead-heat with Clinton. Obama's decision to run now, rather than wait four or even eight years, turned the Democratic race from a likely coronation into a real dogfight.

A Front-Runner Stumbles: Despite Obama's entry and fund-raising ability, Clinton remained the prohibitive front-runner for most of 2007. As a candidate, Clinton remained nearly flawless in the early going. During the numerous candidate debates, the New York Senator was unflappable, quick-witted and above the fray. For someone selling experience and steadiness, it couldn't have been going much better.

But when the candidates met in Philadelphia for a debate in late October, the aura of invincibility began coming apart. Answering questions about a proposal by the governor of New York to allow illegal immigrants to obtain drivers' licenses, Clinton appeared to support the idea before opposing it. A minor flub immediately pierced the aura of invincibility and opened the gates for the concerns which have surrounded the former First Lady since the end of her husband's administration.

Being a Clinton means plenty of baggage on the political trail. Democratic activists already angry with her previous support of the Iraq war were given voice to wonder whether political expediency or principles guided her positions. Arguments about the polarizing nature of her candidacy began gaining more resonance. And when former President Bill Clinton emerged as a vocal supporter of her effort - and a critic of her opponents - the specter of 1990s politics resurfaced as a potent force in the campaign.

Clinton ends the year as a near-underdog in Iowa but with a level of institutional support that most candidates can only dream of. Still, the door is open for Obama or even John Edwards, the party's former vice presidential nominee, to burst through.

A Candidate-In-Theory-Only: For the first nine months of 2007, uncertainty and dissatisfaction hung over the Republican party. The GOP entered the year having lost its majority control in Congress and saddled with an unpopular war and president. Perhaps more unnerving for party stalwarts early on was the lack of a single presidential contender who satisfied the party's different wings.

In John McCain, many rank-and-file party members saw a respected war hero who had been a steadfast defender of the war in Iraq, if not the strategy used to fight it. They also saw a "maverick" with a habit of sticking his finger in the eyes of activists on issues ranging from immigration to campaign finance reform and evangelical activism. Mitt Romney brought a golden reputation as a businessman and organizer but his new devotion to key orthodoxies like abortion made many wary of him. Rudy Giuliani brought a no-nonsense approach to national security and terrorism but flat-out disagreed with the base on social issues.

Polls throughout the year indicated that wide swaths of the party were unsatisfied with the choices being presented them, and in that void former Senator Fred Thompson stepped in - or, rather, tip-toed in. As early as last June, the buzz surrounding his possible entry threatened to overshadow the rest of the field. Thompson regularly topped polls and dominated the discussion.

But June quickly turned into July, then August and finally September. And while Thompson continued to work and plot his campaign behind the scenes, candidates like Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Mike Huckabee continued to run and build toward the early contests. When Thompson did enter the race, he waded in rather than leapt. A lackluster campaign schedule and less-than-electrifying performance on the trail led to the perception that Thompson was at best an unenthusiastic warrior or at worst, lazy.

The failure of Thompson to ignite dissatisfied Republicans opened the door for Huckabee's meteoric rise in November and December. Had social conservatives flocked to Thompson, as many expected, he and not Huckabee might well be competing hard for first place in Iowa. And unlike Huckabee, Thompson had the support of many establishment figures who could put together an organization. Should he fail to win the nomination, Thompson's odd approach to presidential politics will become a case study for how not to run.

An Insurgent Rises: Given the failure of Thompson to rally the forces of social conservatives, it was perhaps inevitable that another candidate would fill that void in the Republican Party. But the dramatic rise of Mike Huckabee surprised even longtime political observers.

In August, Huckabee first demonstrated the potential to turn his under-funded effort into a real grassroots movement. With little money, organization or expectations, Huckabee managed to place a strong second in the Republican straw poll. While candidates like Romney and Sam Brownback poured hundreds of thousands, or millions, into the GOP fund-raising event, Huckabee spent almost nothing, relying on his strong debate performances and conservative message to woo activists.

While gaining a foothold, Huckabee appeared ill-prepared to capitalize on his straw poll showing, particularly considering that candidates like Giuliani and McCain skipped the event altogether. But in October, the former Arkansas Governor used a gathering of mostly evangelical social conservatives to catapult himself into the top tier of the presidential campaign.

Conservatives still uneasy about their candidate choices gathered at an influential Values Voters conference in Washington, DC, where Huckabee wowed the crowd and began cementing himself as the social conservative choice in the race. With Thompson failing to fill the void among social conservatives in the party, the conference enabled Huckabee to begin turning his impressive rhetorical abilities into on-the-ground support in Iowa among the groups which have fueled his rise there.

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[homespunlady]

Pretty obvious WHY they moved the Primaries up so far ahead of the election and started this race RIGHT AFTER the 2006 election.

There were ALREADY cracks in controlling the voters and too much information was "leaking" concerning VOTE FRAUD through every means from Paperless voting being hackable and unsecured to "forgotten" ballots in districts that might not vote for the "media approved" candidate.

Can''t let THAT happen so we get the timetable moved up to BEFORE the VOTERS might catch on to the pervasiveness of the DECEPTIONS going on.

It''s either fool them or "crack down" crunch time for the powers that are in charge.

The irony is that this entire nation is about to be BLINDSIDED by some particularly nasty disasters.

Our ECONOMY is teetering and the current WAR BUDGET has pushed the US past several CRITICAL TIPPING points.

Coupled with the Housing Tulip-mania Bubble that''s bursting at an "unexpectedly" (pre-election) rapid rate and the related "ripples" that will affect areas as remote as considered "safe" pension funds, foreign manufacturing and previously "invulnerable" financial groups; the REAL issue for the 2008 election will soon turn to WHO will provide a WORKABLE plan to RESCUE our National economic Titanic.

We''ve HIT the Iceberg folks.

[homespunlady]

The REAL question we should be asking is WHICH candidate will work to SALVAGE and SAVE the American people and WHICH candidates will waste time and resources rearranging deck-chairs while blindly IGNORING the OBVIOUS?

[homespunlady]

The self-centered FRAT party is over. More mature and concerned Americans want an ADULT in charge. We''re in for some difficult times even IF the damage done by the current administration is reversible.

Let''s hope we''re up to the task and can clean up the MESS that''s been left to us and our children.

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Bush%u2019s Twilight Year Looks Grim
by Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON - If the last days of 2007 are any indication, U.S. President George W. Bush%u2019s last year in office is shaping up as grim and lonely.

Grim, because Bush%u2019s signature %u201Cwar on terror%u201D is nowhere near the kind of %u201Cvictory%u201D on which he had placed so much hope. Hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury have been spent, but the democratic transformation of the Middle East and the wider Islamic world has not materialised.

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Indeed, while Bush%u2019s Surge strategy has helped reduce violence in Iraq over the past year, his top military commanders stress that the relative peace that has been achieved to date is fragile and that prospects for national reconciliation %u2014 the Surge%u2019s political goal %u2014 remain dim.

Meanwhile, victory in the larger terror effort is nowhere in sight, as this week%u2019s assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, helped illustrate.

Grim, because the economic news %u2014 which has generally remained upbeat over Bush%u2019s tenure %u2014 has turned decidedly negative in recent months. The chances that his successor may inherit a recession, as well as the many foreign-policy fiascos created by the disastrous combination of the administration%u2019s ideological rigidity and incompetence, are growing steadily.

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Lonely, not only because of the departure during the past year of virtually all of his closest and most long-standing loyalists %u2014 Dan Barlett, Karen Hughes, Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzales, and Karl Rove %u2014 but also because he is seen increasingly as both a lame duck and an albatross around the necks of his party%u2019s candidates.

Indeed, the focus of national and international attention %u2014 so far as the U.S. is concerned %u2014 appears to have shifted to the race to succeed him in next November%u2019s elections. Remarkably, the mainstream U.S. media this week devoted as much space to the reactions of the main presidential candidates to Bhutto%u2019s assassination as to the administration%u2019s.

The fact that all of the major Republican candidates not only rarely evoke his name, but often suggest that his performance in office has been less than stellar, serves only to underline his marginalisation.

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As for the Democrats, Bush, whose public-approval ratings have hovered around 32 percent for more than a year (the worst sustained ratings of any president in more than 50 years), is the rhetorical target against whom they find it easiest to rally the party faithful. According to recent surveys, the Democratic party has grown substantially over the past four years, largely as a result of what Bush%u2019s defenders have called %u201CBush hatred%u201D.

Bush, of course, is still hoping that 2008 may yet deliver his presidency from the fate of being judged as one of the very worst %u2014 if not the worst %u2014 in history.

A number of eminent historians have in fact already reached that judgement, based, among other things, on the strategic disaster of the Iraq war; the squandering of Washington%u2019s overseas image as a champion of international law and human rights; the defiance of constitutional safeguards at home; the politicisation of the system of justice; and the distortion of scientific research regarding global warming and other critical issues.

(CONT)

[taotxzen]

(CONT)

His hopes of escaping that assessment rest primarily in the area of foreign policy, on which, as a %u201Cwar-time president%u201D, he has staked his reputation.
Possible achievements that could help to redeem Bush%u2019s overall record before the end of his term would be the continued reduction of violence %u2014 if not reconciliation among the three main communal groups %u2014 in Iraq; a major breakthrough in the Israel-Palestinian negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state; or the de-nuclearisation of North Korea.

But even the most likely of these three %u2014 North Korean de-nuclearisation %u2014 remains highly uncertain. Most analysts here believe that Pyongyang has not yet made a strategic decision to give up its nuclear programme as demanded by Washington.

(CONT)

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Similarly, the initial indications after last month%u2019s Israeli-Palestinian Summit in Annapolis do not look particularly favourable. Israel has spurned a cease- fire offer by Hamas %u2014 which, in any event, retains the ability to spoil any accord reached by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas %u2014 and, despite U.S. pressure, is playing coy about settlement activity in the contested Jerusalem area. Just how hard Bush is prepared to press Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert remains unknown.

As for Iraq, a big question mark is whether the planned withdrawal of 30,000 U.S. troops by July and 60,000 by the end of next year will spark a new round in the Sunni-Shi%u2019a civil war, which the Surge has helped to tamp down but not resolve. Another big question as 2007 draws to a close is whether Kurdistan - - until now the most peaceful and pro-U.S. part of Iraq %u2014 will find its stability at risk due to U.S.-backed Turkish attacks on Kurdish guerrillas or by the approach of the newly-scheduled referendum on the status of Kirkuk.

While these three areas may offer the brightest prospects for redemption, new crises %u2014 particularly those arising from the %u201Cwar on terror%u201D %u2014 could divert the administration%u2019s attention and further damage Bush%u2019s record.

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Bhutto%u2019s assassination, for example, offered yet another example that Bush%u2019s war has been at best incompetently pursued, if not misconceived from the very beginning.

Not only did Bush%u2019s diversion of both money and troops from Afghanistan to Iraq immediately after the defeat of the Taliban permit both Taliban and al Qaeda to regroup and eventually extend their influence in the rugged tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border, but his virtually unconditional backing %u2014 including more than 10 billion dollars in mostly military aid %u2014 for the regime of General Pervez Musharraf served mainly to strengthen the Islamist parties at the expense of the secular, %u201Cmoderate%u201D forces to which his administration has given mainly rhetorical support.
When it became clear last summer that Pakistan%u2019s Taliban was making major advances and that Musharraf%u2019s popular base had dried up, the administration sought to forge an agreement between the military commander and the exiled Bhutto, whom it had long ignored.

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