Campaign '07: The Year That Was And Wasn’t

A Look Back At The First Half Of Campaign 2008

(CBS) 

The Big Gamble: Rudy Giuliani was at one point in time considered his party’s giant-killer. Despite his status as mayor of New York City - an anathema to Republicans normally - Giuliani was all that stood between the party and a potential Senator Clinton in the spring of the year 2000. The mayor bowed out of that race after being diagnosed with prostate cancer and enduring a publicly embarrassing divorce while Hillary Clinton all but waltzed into the Senate.

But after 9/11, Giuliani was born again in the GOP as a leader in the midst of crisis and a general in the war on terror. As such, Giuliani entered the race in a position of national strength. In spite of his apostasies on such core party issue as abortion, gay marriage and gun control, he was the new sheriff in the party and accorded a measure of respect and forgiveness that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

For all the goodwill accorded him, Giuliani has thus far failed to cash in. Indeed, he appears determined to prove the viability of a strategy which has never succeeded. Rather than stake a claim in one of the early states - Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina - Giuliani has put all of his chips in the delegate-rich states falling weeks after the contest has begun.

On the face of it, such a strategy looks to be a good bet. Social conservatives in Iowa and South Carolina or rascally independents in New Hampshire are well outside of Giuliani’s core base. More moderate Republicans in states like Florida, California, New York, etc., are his natural reserve of support and show up in much larger numbers. But can any candidate afford to wait until five or six very intense competitions pass before making a move? Will Giuliani become a mere afterthought by the time Florida votes on January 29th? It is by far the biggest strategic gamble of any campaign in this cycle. And the success of it will determine whether Giuliani once again becomes his party’s best hope or fades into the background in a repeat of his 2000 senate bid.

In ? We Trust: Always a factor in American politics, religion surfaced in 2007 in a manner never before seen. Mike Huckabee garnered attention when he proclaimed himself a “Christian leader” and hailed the “birth of Christ” in television advertisements. But those were simply traditional concerns in a very non-traditional discussion.

When Mitt Romney delivered a much-anticipated address on the role of faith in politics, it gave voice to an issue that continues to churn beneath the surface. Romney’s Mormon faith has been seen as a detriment to his aspirations within the Republican Party since before he announced. Evangelical suspicions of the faith were not put to rest by his attempt to tie the traditions together. In fact, just this past weekend it was revealed that those suspicions were being exploited in the conservative state of South Carolina.

On the Democratic side, Obama has been dogged by his Islamic heritage - his father was Muslim although he himself is a member of a Christian church in Chicago. Despite that fact, the rumors have persisted, aided along by Obama’s middle name, Hussein. At least two Clinton aides in Iowa have resigned after admitting to forwarding e-mails tying Obama to the Islamic faith.

Polls have consistently shown that Americans are unwilling to vote for a Mormon candidate and are unsure which faith Obama in fact belongs to. In the end, faith could play a more pivotal role in both nomination process than it ever has before.

Issues? What Issues? A year that started out as a referendum on the war in Iraq ends with more emphasis on celebrity and personality than any specific issues. The assassination of Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto suddenly thrust foreign affairs back into the spotlight for the first time in months. And while uncertainty in international affairs could well cause some primary voters to reassess their decisions, 2007 was spent on different concerns.

For both, personality and positioning has dominated the landscape but especially among Democrats. Hillary Clinton spent a good chunk of the spring and early summer fending off attacks on her support of the Iraq war and justifying her refusal to apologize for her vote authorizing it. But as summer wore into fall, it became less about the relatively minor differences over policy and more about broad themes and attitudes. There’s no doubt that more Americans could accurately name the candidate supported by Oprah Winfrey than could explain the differences in health care proposals.

Among Republicans, immigration supplanted war and terrorism concerns as a policy litmus test. To be sure, social concerns like abortion and religion have played a part, that too has been more attitudinal than specific. The major source of tension has been believability rather than specific differences.

The relative lack of policy differences in both parties were on display in the 20-plus debates held in 2007. Among Democrats, the sharpest differences were voiced by gadfly candidates like Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel while Clinton, Obama and Edwards fought over the margins. On the Republican side, libertarian-minded Ron Paul served as the voice of opposition to established orthodoxy, jousting with Giuliani, Romney and McCain alike.

The Process Dominates: For decades the primacy of Iowa and New Hampshire in the nominating process has been under fire from many of the other 48 states looking for a piece of the lucrative and attention-getting action. While past cycles have seen rogue challenges from the likes of Delaware and Michigan, 2007 began the first all-out assault on the calendar. En mass, mega-states like California, New York and Florida began moving their primary dates earlier in hopes of muscling out Iowa and New Hampshire.

While the national parties have attempted to stem the chaos by striping states moving to dates outside of party guidelines, such disciplinary actions were not enough to avoid creating a process in which voters will begin making their preferences known just three days into the new year. And, with over half of all states voting on or before February 5th, it’s likely that at least one nomination battle will be decided a full ten months before the general election, the effects of which will likely change the dynamics of the election in was that can only be guessed at.

Money: Two candidates are nearly certain to top the $100 million mark in campaign donations for 2007 and in the first nine months of the year, nearly $50 million had been spent on campaign ads, according to one analysis of campaign spending. Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, told the Boston Globe that he expects total ad spending in the presidential race to reach at least $800 million. And Tracey estimates that campaign ad spending at all levels will top $3 billion.

For the first time in recent history, nominees of both parties are expected to opt out of public financing, which limits spending. The increased activity by “outside” groups and so-called “527” organizations will make this the most expensive election ever.

When the 2008 campaign story is written next December, it will certainly speak of events that have yet to be thought of. But the year 2007 will forever have a unique place in presidential campaign history.

[homespunlady]

Pretty obvious WHY they moved the Primaries up so far ahead of the election and started this race RIGHT AFTER the 2006 election.

There were ALREADY cracks in controlling the voters and too much information was "leaking" concerning VOTE FRAUD through every means from Paperless voting being hackable and unsecured to "forgotten" ballots in districts that might not vote for the "media approved" candidate.

Can''t let THAT happen so we get the timetable moved up to BEFORE the VOTERS might catch on to the pervasiveness of the DECEPTIONS going on.

It''s either fool them or "crack down" crunch time for the powers that are in charge.

The irony is that this entire nation is about to be BLINDSIDED by some particularly nasty disasters.

Our ECONOMY is teetering and the current WAR BUDGET has pushed the US past several CRITICAL TIPPING points.

Coupled with the Housing Tulip-mania Bubble that''s bursting at an "unexpectedly" (pre-election) rapid rate and the related "ripples" that will affect areas as remote as considered "safe" pension funds, foreign manufacturing and previously "invulnerable" financial groups; the REAL issue for the 2008 election will soon turn to WHO will provide a WORKABLE plan to RESCUE our National economic Titanic.

We''ve HIT the Iceberg folks.

[homespunlady]

The REAL question we should be asking is WHICH candidate will work to SALVAGE and SAVE the American people and WHICH candidates will waste time and resources rearranging deck-chairs while blindly IGNORING the OBVIOUS?

[homespunlady]

The self-centered FRAT party is over. More mature and concerned Americans want an ADULT in charge. We''re in for some difficult times even IF the damage done by the current administration is reversible.

Let''s hope we''re up to the task and can clean up the MESS that''s been left to us and our children.

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Bush%u2019s Twilight Year Looks Grim
by Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON - If the last days of 2007 are any indication, U.S. President George W. Bush%u2019s last year in office is shaping up as grim and lonely.

Grim, because Bush%u2019s signature %u201Cwar on terror%u201D is nowhere near the kind of %u201Cvictory%u201D on which he had placed so much hope. Hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury have been spent, but the democratic transformation of the Middle East and the wider Islamic world has not materialised.

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Indeed, while Bush%u2019s Surge strategy has helped reduce violence in Iraq over the past year, his top military commanders stress that the relative peace that has been achieved to date is fragile and that prospects for national reconciliation %u2014 the Surge%u2019s political goal %u2014 remain dim.

Meanwhile, victory in the larger terror effort is nowhere in sight, as this week%u2019s assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, helped illustrate.

Grim, because the economic news %u2014 which has generally remained upbeat over Bush%u2019s tenure %u2014 has turned decidedly negative in recent months. The chances that his successor may inherit a recession, as well as the many foreign-policy fiascos created by the disastrous combination of the administration%u2019s ideological rigidity and incompetence, are growing steadily.

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Lonely, not only because of the departure during the past year of virtually all of his closest and most long-standing loyalists %u2014 Dan Barlett, Karen Hughes, Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzales, and Karl Rove %u2014 but also because he is seen increasingly as both a lame duck and an albatross around the necks of his party%u2019s candidates.

Indeed, the focus of national and international attention %u2014 so far as the U.S. is concerned %u2014 appears to have shifted to the race to succeed him in next November%u2019s elections. Remarkably, the mainstream U.S. media this week devoted as much space to the reactions of the main presidential candidates to Bhutto%u2019s assassination as to the administration%u2019s.

The fact that all of the major Republican candidates not only rarely evoke his name, but often suggest that his performance in office has been less than stellar, serves only to underline his marginalisation.

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As for the Democrats, Bush, whose public-approval ratings have hovered around 32 percent for more than a year (the worst sustained ratings of any president in more than 50 years), is the rhetorical target against whom they find it easiest to rally the party faithful. According to recent surveys, the Democratic party has grown substantially over the past four years, largely as a result of what Bush%u2019s defenders have called %u201CBush hatred%u201D.

Bush, of course, is still hoping that 2008 may yet deliver his presidency from the fate of being judged as one of the very worst %u2014 if not the worst %u2014 in history.

A number of eminent historians have in fact already reached that judgement, based, among other things, on the strategic disaster of the Iraq war; the squandering of Washington%u2019s overseas image as a champion of international law and human rights; the defiance of constitutional safeguards at home; the politicisation of the system of justice; and the distortion of scientific research regarding global warming and other critical issues.

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(CONT)

His hopes of escaping that assessment rest primarily in the area of foreign policy, on which, as a %u201Cwar-time president%u201D, he has staked his reputation.
Possible achievements that could help to redeem Bush%u2019s overall record before the end of his term would be the continued reduction of violence %u2014 if not reconciliation among the three main communal groups %u2014 in Iraq; a major breakthrough in the Israel-Palestinian negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state; or the de-nuclearisation of North Korea.

But even the most likely of these three %u2014 North Korean de-nuclearisation %u2014 remains highly uncertain. Most analysts here believe that Pyongyang has not yet made a strategic decision to give up its nuclear programme as demanded by Washington.

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Similarly, the initial indications after last month%u2019s Israeli-Palestinian Summit in Annapolis do not look particularly favourable. Israel has spurned a cease- fire offer by Hamas %u2014 which, in any event, retains the ability to spoil any accord reached by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas %u2014 and, despite U.S. pressure, is playing coy about settlement activity in the contested Jerusalem area. Just how hard Bush is prepared to press Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert remains unknown.

As for Iraq, a big question mark is whether the planned withdrawal of 30,000 U.S. troops by July and 60,000 by the end of next year will spark a new round in the Sunni-Shi%u2019a civil war, which the Surge has helped to tamp down but not resolve. Another big question as 2007 draws to a close is whether Kurdistan - - until now the most peaceful and pro-U.S. part of Iraq %u2014 will find its stability at risk due to U.S.-backed Turkish attacks on Kurdish guerrillas or by the approach of the newly-scheduled referendum on the status of Kirkuk.

While these three areas may offer the brightest prospects for redemption, new crises %u2014 particularly those arising from the %u201Cwar on terror%u201D %u2014 could divert the administration%u2019s attention and further damage Bush%u2019s record.

(CONT)

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(CONT)

Bhutto%u2019s assassination, for example, offered yet another example that Bush%u2019s war has been at best incompetently pursued, if not misconceived from the very beginning.

Not only did Bush%u2019s diversion of both money and troops from Afghanistan to Iraq immediately after the defeat of the Taliban permit both Taliban and al Qaeda to regroup and eventually extend their influence in the rugged tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border, but his virtually unconditional backing %u2014 including more than 10 billion dollars in mostly military aid %u2014 for the regime of General Pervez Musharraf served mainly to strengthen the Islamist parties at the expense of the secular, %u201Cmoderate%u201D forces to which his administration has given mainly rhetorical support.
When it became clear last summer that Pakistan%u2019s Taliban was making major advances and that Musharraf%u2019s popular base had dried up, the administration sought to forge an agreement between the military commander and the exiled Bhutto, whom it had long ignored.

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The agreement, which included free elections that would likely result in Bhutto%u2019s election as prime minister, was designed, in the words of Bruce Reidel %u2014 a former senior CIA analyst now with the Brookings Institution %u2014 to give the Musharraf government %u201Ca democratic ******%u201D, bolster the moderates, and encourage the army to co-operate with U.S. counter-terror efforts.

The cynicism of the manoeuvre, combined with Washington%u2019s enduring support for Musharraf %u2014 even when he declared a state of emergency earlier this fall %u2014 forced Bhutto to back away, leaving the accord unconsummated. Now that she has been eliminated, a number of experts here have noted, Bush, predictably, lacks a %u201CPlan B%u201D.

The prospect of a failed, nuclear-armed Pakistan makes even Iraq %u2014 not to mention a uranium-enrichment programme in Iran %u2014 look benign. It could be a rough final year.

[taotxzen]

Let%u2019s Toast to Ten Good Things About 2007
by Medea Benjamin

As we close this year on the low of Congress giving Bush more billions for war, and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, let%u2019s remember some of the year%u2019s gains that can revive our spirits for the New Year. Here are just ten.

1. With the exception of the White House, this has been a banner year for environmental consciousness and action. Al Gore and the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won the Nobel Peace Prize. Green building and renewable energy have exploded. Congress passed the Green Jobs Act of 2007, authorizing $125 million for green job training. Over 700 U.S. mayors, representing 25 percent of the U.S. population, have signed a pledge to reduce greenhouse gases by 2012. Illinois became the 26th state to require that some of the state%u2019s electricity come from renewable sources and Kansas became the first state to refuse a permit for a new coal-fired power plant for health and environmental reasons. That%u2019s progress!

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2. On the global environmental scene, the Bush dinosaurs were tackled head on. When the US delegation at the UN climate change conference in Bali tried to sabotage the negotiations, the delegate from tiny Papua New Guinea threw diplomatic niceties to the wind and said that if the U.S. couldn%u2019t lead, it should get out of the way. Embarrassed by international and domestic outrage, the U.S. delegation buckled, and the way was cleared for adopting the %u201CBali road map.%u201D Although it is a weak mandate, it lays the groundwork for a stronger climate agreement post-2012 when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocols ends.

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3. Imagine living in a waste-free urban society? Well, it%u2019s no longer a utopian dream but a well-thought-out plan for India%u2019s state of Kerala. The plan to be %u201Cwaste-free%u201D within five years includes waste prevention, intensive re-use and recycling, composting, replacing unsustainable materials with sustainable ones, training people to produce these materials, and providing funds for setting up sustainably run businesses. The ground-breaking plan, spearheaded by a local grassroots movement, demonstrates how citizen groups can advance pioneering policies to heal the planet.

4. While the war in Iraq rages on, a new war was stopped. The specter of war with Iran loomed large throughout the year, with Washington accusing Iran of killing U.S . soldiers in Iraq and being a nuclear threat. Then in December came the National Intelligence Estimate showing that the Bush administration knew all along that Iran had shelved its nuclear weapons program in 2003. It exposed the Administration claims of an Iranian threat as unjustifiably inflated, and the winds of war were suddenly subdued. Nothing is guaranteed, but a U.S. military attack on Iran is less likely now than it was earlier in the year.

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5. This year also brought a decrease in tensions with North Korea. Hostilities flared after North Korea successfully conducted a nuclear test in 2006. But the Bush administration, bogged down in Iraq and pushed by international pressure, agreed to negotiate. Following a series of six-party talks involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S, on March 17, 2007, an historic agreement was reached. North Korea agreed to shut down its main nuclear facility and submit a list of its nuclear programs in exchange for fuel and normalization talks with the U.S. and Japan. During this age of raw aggression, it is a welcome example of putting diplomacy first.

6. The Iraqi people have little to celebrate, but there was one important victory for the people this year. Remember how the Bush administration and Congress were insisting that the Iraqi Parliament pass a new oil law? Touted as a way to %u201Cshare oil revenue among all Iraqis%u201D, the oil law was really designed to transform the country%u2019s currently nationalized oil system to one open to foreign corporate control. But opposition was fierce inside Iraq, especially from the nation%u2019s oil worker unions. In a rare sign of independence from Washington and concern for domestic opinion, the Iraqi Parliament withstood intense U.S. pressure and refused to pass the oil law.

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7. In early 2007, few Americans had heard of the private security company Blackwater. By year%u2019s end, Blackwater had become infamous for the killing of civilians in Iraq. The radical privatization of our military to corporations like Blackwater that are accountable to no one was exposed for all to see. This frightening process is still well under way, with more private contractors in Iraq than soldiers, but at least the issue has now entered the public dialogue. And Blackwater has received such a black eye that it%u2019s unlikely to get a new Iraq contract when the present one expires in May.

8. One victory on both the war and environmental fronts came in Australia, where Labor Party%u2019s Kevin Rudd beat conservative John Howard to become Prime Minister. Howard was an enthusiastic backer of George Bush%u2019s disastrous war on terror, from defending the Guantanamo prison and extraordinary rendition to sending troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. Howard also joined Bush in refusing to ratify the Kyoto Agreement, arguing it would cost Australians jobs. After assuming office on December 3, Kevin Rudd immediately signed the Kyoto agreement and he has promised to remove Australia%u2019s combat troops from Iraq by mid-2008.

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9. Sometimes a loss is a win. Hugo Chavez had initiated a constitutional referendum that would have, among other changes, scrapped term limits. His immediate acceptance of a razor-thin margin of defeat before all the votes were even counted showed his democratic colors and made it a lot harder for Bush and the corporate media to label him a dictator. Despite the loss, Chavez remains extremely popular, especially among the poor and working class in Venezuela. And throughout Latin America, the historic transformation led by progressive leaders like Chavez continues to blossom.

10. Last but not least, this year saw the resignation of some of Bush%u2019s closest allies in government - Donald Rumsfeld resigned as Secretary of Defense, Alberto Gonzalez as Attorney General, and Karl Rove as Deputy Chief of Staff. Best of all, we can give thanks that we only have ONE YEAR left of the criminal, war-mongering, constitution-shredding, rights-violating, torture-sanctioning Bush Administration! It%u2019s just GOT to get better than this!

So here%u2019s a toast to a green future, diplomacy, and surviving the last throes of the Bush regime. Que viva 2008!

[homespunlady]

The simple question to ask is do we want a nation controlled by single minded profiteering at any cost corporations or do we want a nation run by altruistic people with a common sense of purpose dedicated to making the world BETTER for their children rather than a tiny cadre of corporate moguls.

[homespunlady]

Pretty obvious WHY they moved the Primaries up so far ahead of the election and started this race RIGHT AFTER the 2006 election.

There were ALREADY cracks in control of the voters and too much information was "leaking" concerning VOTE FRAUD through every means from Paperless voting being hackable and unsecured to "forgotten" ballots in districts that might not vote for the "media approved" candidate.

Can''t let THAT happen so we get the timetable moved up BEFORE the VOTERS catch on to the pervasiveness of the DECEPTIONS going on.

It''s either fool them or "crack down" crunch time.

The irony is that this entire nation is about to be BLINDSIDED by some extremely nasty disasters. Our ECONOMY is teetering and the current WAR BUDGET has pushed the US past CRITICAL TIPPING points.

Coupled with the Housing Tulip-mania Bubble that''s bursting at an "unexpectedly" (pre-election) rapid rate and the related "ripples" that will affect areas as remote as "safe" pensions, foreign manufacturing and previously "invulnerable" financial consortiums; the REAL issue for the 2008 election will soon turn to WHO will provide a plan to RESCUE a National economic Titanic.

We''ve HIT the Iceberg.

Which candidate will SALVAGE and SAVE the people and Which candidate will rearrange DECK chair blindly IGNORING the OBVIOUS?

[jedi08]

The sad thing about the Clinton Campaign is what its bassed on, *** and Race!!!! Not intergrety and ideas

1st off all her biggest supporters are Older women who like her for two reasons. 1 that she is a women (very sexist and unlogical) 2. who she was married too (also totally moronic

Another thing that isn''t being talked about is the racist aspect of this whole thing. I bet, even though most wouldn''t say it that 70 percent of the older women who support Clinton say they wouldn''t support a black man no matter what and they really want a women. Its a dispicable arguement but one that I hear all the time from older women Clinton supports.

They will look you in the eye, then look over there shoulder to make sure their are noblack people around and they will lean in and say real quite, almost as if its a little secret among the Clinton supporters, "I wont vote for a black man". I couldn''t beleive it when I first herd it from my Grandma but after I did I asked 20 other oldder women (over 60)the same question (I work in a hospital so their are lots of old women around) and 14 of the 20 Clinton supporters said the same sort of thing. Its a sad fact that isn''t being talked about.

In summary, Clinton is pandering to old school sexist racist women who just want to see a women in power no matter who she is. Women who probably shouldn''t be driving let alone trying to elect another BUSH or CLINTON to the white house.