Dec. 31, 2007
Campaign '07: The Year That Was And Wasn’t
A Look Back At The First Half Of Campaign 2008
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Play CBS Video Video Top Political Stories Of '07 What are the biggest political stories of the year? From the Hill to the White House - and the '08 trail - Susan Roberts looks at the standoffs, shakeups and scandals that drove politics news in 2007.
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In-Depth 2008 Presidential Hopefuls Profiles and the latest news on the Democrats and Republicans running for the White House.
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News Tools Campaign Calendar The latest list of primary and caucus dates as states continue jockeying for position.
Year one of the longest presidential campaign in history comes to a close with far less clarity that it had when candidates began announcing their intentions and raising money last January. After thousands of speeches, dozens of televised debates, hundreds of millions of dollars raised and spent, 2008 dawns with the nominations of both major political parties completely up for grabs.
But it hasn’t been an uneventful year by any measure and the events of 2007 are almost certain to have as much to do with the outcome of the nomination battles, and the general election itself, as what happens between now and November. We may yet be surprised at which arguments, flubs or utterances made in the past year come back to play a starring role in the general election, but here is a look back at the developments and dynamics that shaped the first half of campaign 2008.
A New Force Emerges: While it can be said that every formal announcement is an important event in a campaign, the entry of Illinois Senator Barack Obama was a unique event, one which changed the very nature of the race.
Standing on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois on a frigid February day, his formal announcement instantly transformed the Democratic nominating contest. Four years earlier, Obama was a little-known state senator. His electrifying speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention and subsequent elevation to the U.S. Senate made Obama an instant superstar -- not just a fresh face but a generational leader.
His ability to match, and early on to surpass, the fundraising machine of Senator Hillary Clinton demonstrated that Obama was no flash-in-the-pan phenom but a real contender. A different kind of black leader, one not defined by the civil rights movement of the past, Obama has amassed a coalition of highly educated progressives, African Americans and independents and enters the first primary contests locked in a dead-heat with Clinton. Obama’s decision to run now, rather than wait four or even eight years, turned the Democratic race from a likely coronation into a real dogfight.
A Front-Runner Stumbles: Despite Obama’s entry and fund-raising ability, Clinton remained the prohibitive front-runner for most of 2007. As a candidate, Clinton remained nearly flawless in the early going. During the numerous candidate debates, the New York Senator was unflappable, quick-witted and above the fray. For someone selling experience and steadiness, it couldn’t have been going much better.
But when the candidates met in Philadelphia for a debate in late October, the aura of invincibility began coming apart. Answering questions about a proposal by the governor of New York to allow illegal immigrants to obtain drivers’ licenses, Clinton appeared to support the idea before opposing it. A minor flub immediately pierced the aura of invincibility and opened the gates for the concerns which have surrounded the former First Lady since the end of her husband’s administration.
Being a Clinton means plenty of baggage on the political trail. Democratic activists already angry with her previous support of the Iraq war were given voice to wonder whether political expediency or principles guided her positions. Arguments about the polarizing nature of her candidacy began gaining more resonance. And when former President Bill Clinton emerged as a vocal supporter of her effort - and a critic of her opponents - the specter of 1990s politics resurfaced as a potent force in the campaign.
Clinton ends the year as a near-underdog in Iowa but with a level of institutional support that most candidates can only dream of. Still, the door is open for Obama or even John Edwards, the party’s former vice presidential nominee, to burst through.
A Candidate-In-Theory-Only: For the first nine months of 2007, uncertainty and dissatisfaction hung over the Republican party. The GOP entered the year having lost its majority control in Congress and saddled with an unpopular war and president. Perhaps more unnerving for party stalwarts early on was the lack of a single presidential contender who satisfied the party’s different wings.
In John McCain, many rank-and-file party members saw a respected war hero who had been a steadfast defender of the war in Iraq, if not the strategy used to fight it. They also saw a “maverick” with a habit of sticking his finger in the eyes of activists on issues ranging from immigration to campaign finance reform and evangelical activism. Mitt Romney brought a golden reputation as a businessman and organizer but his new devotion to key orthodoxies like abortion made many wary of him. Rudy Giuliani brought a no-nonsense approach to national security and terrorism but flat-out disagreed with the base on social issues.
Polls throughout the year indicated that wide swaths of the party were unsatisfied with the choices being presented them, and in that void former Senator Fred Thompson stepped in - or, rather, tip-toed in. As early as last June, the buzz surrounding his possible entry threatened to overshadow the rest of the field. Thompson regularly topped polls and dominated the discussion.
But June quickly turned into July, then August and finally September. And while Thompson continued to work and plot his campaign behind the scenes, candidates like Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Mike Huckabee continued to run and build toward the early contests. When Thompson did enter the race, he waded in rather than leapt. A lackluster campaign schedule and less-than-electrifying performance on the trail led to the perception that Thompson was at best an unenthusiastic warrior or at worst, lazy.
The failure of Thompson to ignite dissatisfied Republicans opened the door for Huckabee’s meteoric rise in November and December. Had social conservatives flocked to Thompson, as many expected, he and not Huckabee might well be competing hard for first place in Iowa. And unlike Huckabee, Thompson had the support of many establishment figures who could put together an organization. Should he fail to win the nomination, Thompson’s odd approach to presidential politics will become a case study for how not to run.
An Insurgent Rises: Given the failure of Thompson to rally the forces of social conservatives, it was perhaps inevitable that another candidate would fill that void in the Republican Party. But the dramatic rise of Mike Huckabee surprised even longtime political observers.
In August, Huckabee first demonstrated the potential to turn his under-funded effort into a real grassroots movement. With little money, organization or expectations, Huckabee managed to place a strong second in the Republican straw poll. While candidates like Romney and Sam Brownback poured hundreds of thousands, or millions, into the GOP fund-raising event, Huckabee spent almost nothing, relying on his strong debate performances and conservative message to woo activists.
While gaining a foothold, Huckabee appeared ill-prepared to capitalize on his straw poll showing, particularly considering that candidates like Giuliani and McCain skipped the event altogether. But in October, the former Arkansas Governor used a gathering of mostly evangelical social conservatives to catapult himself into the top tier of the presidential campaign.
Conservatives still uneasy about their candidate choices gathered at an influential Values Voters conference in Washington, DC, where Huckabee wowed the crowd and began cementing himself as the social conservative choice in the race. With Thompson failing to fill the void among social conservatives in the party, the conference enabled Huckabee to begin turning his impressive rhetorical abilities into on-the-ground support in Iowa among the groups which have fueled his rise there.
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See all 47 CommentsThere were ALREADY cracks in controlling the voters and too much information was "leaking" concerning VOTE FRAUD through every means from Paperless voting being hackable and unsecured to "forgotten" ballots in districts that might not vote for the "media approved" candidate.
Can''t let THAT happen so we get the timetable moved up to BEFORE the VOTERS might catch on to the pervasiveness of the DECEPTIONS going on.
It''s either fool them or "crack down" crunch time for the powers that are in charge.
The irony is that this entire nation is about to be BLINDSIDED by some particularly nasty disasters.
Our ECONOMY is teetering and the current WAR BUDGET has pushed the US past several CRITICAL TIPPING points.
Coupled with the Housing Tulip-mania Bubble that''s bursting at an "unexpectedly" (pre-election) rapid rate and the related "ripples" that will affect areas as remote as considered "safe" pension funds, foreign manufacturing and previously "invulnerable" financial groups; the REAL issue for the 2008 election will soon turn to WHO will provide a WORKABLE plan to RESCUE our National economic Titanic.
We''ve HIT the Iceberg folks.
The self-centered FRAT party is over. More mature and concerned Americans want an ADULT in charge. We''re in for some difficult times even IF the damage done by the current administration is reversible.
Let''s hope we''re up to the task and can clean up the MESS that''s been left to us and our children.
by Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - If the last days of 2007 are any indication, U.S. President George W. Bush%u2019s last year in office is shaping up as grim and lonely.
Grim, because Bush%u2019s signature %u201Cwar on terror%u201D is nowhere near the kind of %u201Cvictory%u201D on which he had placed so much hope. Hundreds of billions of dollars from the U.S. Treasury have been spent, but the democratic transformation of the Middle East and the wider Islamic world has not materialised.
(CONT)
Indeed, while Bush%u2019s Surge strategy has helped reduce violence in Iraq over the past year, his top military commanders stress that the relative peace that has been achieved to date is fragile and that prospects for national reconciliation %u2014 the Surge%u2019s political goal %u2014 remain dim.
Meanwhile, victory in the larger terror effort is nowhere in sight, as this week%u2019s assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, helped illustrate.
Grim, because the economic news %u2014 which has generally remained upbeat over Bush%u2019s tenure %u2014 has turned decidedly negative in recent months. The chances that his successor may inherit a recession, as well as the many foreign-policy fiascos created by the disastrous combination of the administration%u2019s ideological rigidity and incompetence, are growing steadily.
(CONT)
Lonely, not only because of the departure during the past year of virtually all of his closest and most long-standing loyalists %u2014 Dan Barlett, Karen Hughes, Harriet Miers, Alberto Gonzales, and Karl Rove %u2014 but also because he is seen increasingly as both a lame duck and an albatross around the necks of his party%u2019s candidates.
Indeed, the focus of national and international attention %u2014 so far as the U.S. is concerned %u2014 appears to have shifted to the race to succeed him in next November%u2019s elections. Remarkably, the mainstream U.S. media this week devoted as much space to the reactions of the main presidential candidates to Bhutto%u2019s assassination as to the administration%u2019s.
The fact that all of the major Republican candidates not only rarely evoke his name, but often suggest that his performance in office has been less than stellar, serves only to underline his marginalisation.
(CONT)
As for the Democrats, Bush, whose public-approval ratings have hovered around 32 percent for more than a year (the worst sustained ratings of any president in more than 50 years), is the rhetorical target against whom they find it easiest to rally the party faithful. According to recent surveys, the Democratic party has grown substantially over the past four years, largely as a result of what Bush%u2019s defenders have called %u201CBush hatred%u201D.
Bush, of course, is still hoping that 2008 may yet deliver his presidency from the fate of being judged as one of the very worst %u2014 if not the worst %u2014 in history.
A number of eminent historians have in fact already reached that judgement, based, among other things, on the strategic disaster of the Iraq war; the squandering of Washington%u2019s overseas image as a champion of international law and human rights; the defiance of constitutional safeguards at home; the politicisation of the system of justice; and the distortion of scientific research regarding global warming and other critical issues.
(CONT)
His hopes of escaping that assessment rest primarily in the area of foreign policy, on which, as a %u201Cwar-time president%u201D, he has staked his reputation.
Possible achievements that could help to redeem Bush%u2019s overall record before the end of his term would be the continued reduction of violence %u2014 if not reconciliation among the three main communal groups %u2014 in Iraq; a major breakthrough in the Israel-Palestinian negotiations leading to the establishment of a Palestinian state; or the de-nuclearisation of North Korea.
But even the most likely of these three %u2014 North Korean de-nuclearisation %u2014 remains highly uncertain. Most analysts here believe that Pyongyang has not yet made a strategic decision to give up its nuclear programme as demanded by Washington.
(CONT)
Similarly, the initial indications after last month%u2019s Israeli-Palestinian Summit in Annapolis do not look particularly favourable. Israel has spurned a cease- fire offer by Hamas %u2014 which, in any event, retains the ability to spoil any accord reached by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas %u2014 and, despite U.S. pressure, is playing coy about settlement activity in the contested Jerusalem area. Just how hard Bush is prepared to press Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert remains unknown.
As for Iraq, a big question mark is whether the planned withdrawal of 30,000 U.S. troops by July and 60,000 by the end of next year will spark a new round in the Sunni-Shi%u2019a civil war, which the Surge has helped to tamp down but not resolve. Another big question as 2007 draws to a close is whether Kurdistan - - until now the most peaceful and pro-U.S. part of Iraq %u2014 will find its stability at risk due to U.S.-backed Turkish attacks on Kurdish guerrillas or by the approach of the newly-scheduled referendum on the status of Kirkuk.
While these three areas may offer the brightest prospects for redemption, new crises %u2014 particularly those arising from the %u201Cwar on terror%u201D %u2014 could divert the administration%u2019s attention and further damage Bush%u2019s record.
(CONT)
Bhutto%u2019s assassination, for example, offered yet another example that Bush%u2019s war has been at best incompetently pursued, if not misconceived from the very beginning.
Not only did Bush%u2019s diversion of both money and troops from Afghanistan to Iraq immediately after the defeat of the Taliban permit both Taliban and al Qaeda to regroup and eventually extend their influence in the rugged tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border, but his virtually unconditional backing %u2014 including more than 10 billion dollars in mostly military aid %u2014 for the regime of General Pervez Musharraf served mainly to strengthen the Islamist parties at the expense of the secular, %u201Cmoderate%u201D forces to which his administration has given mainly rhetorical support.
When it became clear last summer that Pakistan%u2019s Taliban was making major advances and that Musharraf%u2019s popular base had dried up, the administration sought to forge an agreement between the military commander and the exiled Bhutto, whom it had long ignored.
(CONT)
The agreement, which included free elections that would likely result in Bhutto%u2019s election as prime minister, was designed, in the words of Bruce Reidel %u2014 a former senior CIA analyst now with the Brookings Institution %u2014 to give the Musharraf government %u201Ca democratic ******%u201D, bolster the moderates, and encourage the army to co-operate with U.S. counter-terror efforts.
The cynicism of the manoeuvre, combined with Washington%u2019s enduring support for Musharraf %u2014 even when he declared a state of emergency earlier this fall %u2014 forced Bhutto to back away, leaving the accord unconsummated. Now that she has been eliminated, a number of experts here have noted, Bush, predictably, lacks a %u201CPlan B%u201D.
The prospect of a failed, nuclear-armed Pakistan makes even Iraq %u2014 not to mention a uranium-enrichment programme in Iran %u2014 look benign. It could be a rough final year.
by Medea Benjamin
As we close this year on the low of Congress giving Bush more billions for war, and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan, let%u2019s remember some of the year%u2019s gains that can revive our spirits for the New Year. Here are just ten.
1. With the exception of the White House, this has been a banner year for environmental consciousness and action. Al Gore and the scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change won the Nobel Peace Prize. Green building and renewable energy have exploded. Congress passed the Green Jobs Act of 2007, authorizing $125 million for green job training. Over 700 U.S. mayors, representing 25 percent of the U.S. population, have signed a pledge to reduce greenhouse gases by 2012. Illinois became the 26th state to require that some of the state%u2019s electricity come from renewable sources and Kansas became the first state to refuse a permit for a new coal-fired power plant for health and environmental reasons. That%u2019s progress!
(CONT)
2. On the global environmental scene, the Bush dinosaurs were tackled head on. When the US delegation at the UN climate change conference in Bali tried to sabotage the negotiations, the delegate from tiny Papua New Guinea threw diplomatic niceties to the wind and said that if the U.S. couldn%u2019t lead, it should get out of the way. Embarrassed by international and domestic outrage, the U.S. delegation buckled, and the way was cleared for adopting the %u201CBali road map.%u201D Although it is a weak mandate, it lays the groundwork for a stronger climate agreement post-2012 when the first phase of the Kyoto Protocols ends.
(CONT)
3. Imagine living in a waste-free urban society? Well, it%u2019s no longer a utopian dream but a well-thought-out plan for India%u2019s state of Kerala. The plan to be %u201Cwaste-free%u201D within five years includes waste prevention, intensive re-use and recycling, composting, replacing unsustainable materials with sustainable ones, training people to produce these materials, and providing funds for setting up sustainably run businesses. The ground-breaking plan, spearheaded by a local grassroots movement, demonstrates how citizen groups can advance pioneering policies to heal the planet.
4. While the war in Iraq rages on, a new war was stopped. The specter of war with Iran loomed large throughout the year, with Washington accusing Iran of killing U.S . soldiers in Iraq and being a nuclear threat. Then in December came the National Intelligence Estimate showing that the Bush administration knew all along that Iran had shelved its nuclear weapons program in 2003. It exposed the Administration claims of an Iranian threat as unjustifiably inflated, and the winds of war were suddenly subdued. Nothing is guaranteed, but a U.S. military attack on Iran is less likely now than it was earlier in the year.
(CONT)
5. This year also brought a decrease in tensions with North Korea. Hostilities flared after North Korea successfully conducted a nuclear test in 2006. But the Bush administration, bogged down in Iraq and pushed by international pressure, agreed to negotiate. Following a series of six-party talks involving North Korea, South Korea, China, Russia, Japan, and the U.S, on March 17, 2007, an historic agreement was reached. North Korea agreed to shut down its main nuclear facility and submit a list of its nuclear programs in exchange for fuel and normalization talks with the U.S. and Japan. During this age of raw aggression, it is a welcome example of putting diplomacy first.
6. The Iraqi people have little to celebrate, but there was one important victory for the people this year. Remember how the Bush administration and Congress were insisting that the Iraqi Parliament pass a new oil law? Touted as a way to %u201Cshare oil revenue among all Iraqis%u201D, the oil law was really designed to transform the country%u2019s currently nationalized oil system to one open to foreign corporate control. But opposition was fierce inside Iraq, especially from the nation%u2019s oil worker unions. In a rare sign of independence from Washington and concern for domestic opinion, the Iraqi Parliament withstood intense U.S. pressure and refused to pass the oil law.
(CONT)
7. In early 2007, few Americans had heard of the private security company Blackwater. By year%u2019s end, Blackwater had become infamous for the killing of civilians in Iraq. The radical privatization of our military to corporations like Blackwater that are accountable to no one was exposed for all to see. This frightening process is still well under way, with more private contractors in Iraq than soldiers, but at least the issue has now entered the public dialogue. And Blackwater has received such a black eye that it%u2019s unlikely to get a new Iraq contract when the present one expires in May.
8. One victory on both the war and environmental fronts came in Australia, where Labor Party%u2019s Kevin Rudd beat conservative John Howard to become Prime Minister. Howard was an enthusiastic backer of George Bush%u2019s disastrous war on terror, from defending the Guantanamo prison and extraordinary rendition to sending troops to Iraq and Afghanistan. Howard also joined Bush in refusing to ratify the Kyoto Agreement, arguing it would cost Australians jobs. After assuming office on December 3, Kevin Rudd immediately signed the Kyoto agreement and he has promised to remove Australia%u2019s combat troops from Iraq by mid-2008.
(CONT)
9. Sometimes a loss is a win. Hugo Chavez had initiated a constitutional referendum that would have, among other changes, scrapped term limits. His immediate acceptance of a razor-thin margin of defeat before all the votes were even counted showed his democratic colors and made it a lot harder for Bush and the corporate media to label him a dictator. Despite the loss, Chavez remains extremely popular, especially among the poor and working class in Venezuela. And throughout Latin America, the historic transformation led by progressive leaders like Chavez continues to blossom.
10. Last but not least, this year saw the resignation of some of Bush%u2019s closest allies in government - Donald Rumsfeld resigned as Secretary of Defense, Alberto Gonzalez as Attorney General, and Karl Rove as Deputy Chief of Staff. Best of all, we can give thanks that we only have ONE YEAR left of the criminal, war-mongering, constitution-shredding, rights-violating, torture-sanctioning Bush Administration! It%u2019s just GOT to get better than this!
So here%u2019s a toast to a green future, diplomacy, and surviving the last throes of the Bush regime. Que viva 2008!
There were ALREADY cracks in control of the voters and too much information was "leaking" concerning VOTE FRAUD through every means from Paperless voting being hackable and unsecured to "forgotten" ballots in districts that might not vote for the "media approved" candidate.
Can''t let THAT happen so we get the timetable moved up BEFORE the VOTERS catch on to the pervasiveness of the DECEPTIONS going on.
It''s either fool them or "crack down" crunch time.
The irony is that this entire nation is about to be BLINDSIDED by some extremely nasty disasters. Our ECONOMY is teetering and the current WAR BUDGET has pushed the US past CRITICAL TIPPING points.
Coupled with the Housing Tulip-mania Bubble that''s bursting at an "unexpectedly" (pre-election) rapid rate and the related "ripples" that will affect areas as remote as "safe" pensions, foreign manufacturing and previously "invulnerable" financial consortiums; the REAL issue for the 2008 election will soon turn to WHO will provide a plan to RESCUE a National economic Titanic.
We''ve HIT the Iceberg.
Which candidate will SALVAGE and SAVE the people and Which candidate will rearrange DECK chair blindly IGNORING the OBVIOUS?
1st off all her biggest supporters are Older women who like her for two reasons. 1 that she is a women (very sexist and unlogical) 2. who she was married too (also totally moronic
Another thing that isn''t being talked about is the racist aspect of this whole thing. I bet, even though most wouldn''t say it that 70 percent of the older women who support Clinton say they wouldn''t support a black man no matter what and they really want a women. Its a dispicable arguement but one that I hear all the time from older women Clinton supports.
They will look you in the eye, then look over there shoulder to make sure their are noblack people around and they will lean in and say real quite, almost as if its a little secret among the Clinton supporters, "I wont vote for a black man". I couldn''t beleive it when I first herd it from my Grandma but after I did I asked 20 other oldder women (over 60)the same question (I work in a hospital so their are lots of old women around) and 14 of the 20 Clinton supporters said the same sort of thing. Its a sad fact that isn''t being talked about.
In summary, Clinton is pandering to old school sexist racist women who just want to see a women in power no matter who she is. Women who probably shouldn''t be driving let alone trying to elect another BUSH or CLINTON to the white house.
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