Chance Of Asteroid Hitting Mars Increases

But Possibility Of Football Field-Sized Space Rock Hitting Planet Still A Long Shot, Scientists Say

(AP)  The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent, scientists said Friday after analyzing archival data.

Though still a long shot, some researchers are hoping for a cosmic smash.

"I think it'll be cool," said Don Yeomans, who heads the Near-Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I'm not rooting for an impact."

The space rock, known as the nondescript 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona. Based on the latest information available, scientists said last week there was a 1-in-75 chance the asteroid could hit Mars on Jan. 30.

The odds were increased to 1-in-25 this week after a Ph.D. student pored through the archives and plotted the asteroid's motions before its official discovery. The new information allowed scientists to improve their calculations of the asteroid's orbit and flight path.

Scientists will continue to monitor the asteroid to better predict the possibility of a Martian impact. Yeomans said he expects the odds to decrease with new observations gathered early next year.

The likelihood of an asteroid hit usually "peaks before plummeting to zero with additional data," he said.

The asteroid poses no threat to Earth and is closing in on the Red Planet at 27,900 mph.

Should a collision occur, it would likely blast a half-mile-wide crater north of where the rover Opportunity has been exploring since 2004.

The impact could release energy similar to the 1908 Tunguska object that exploded over remote central Siberia and wiped out 60 million trees.

[neouno-2009]

BREAKING NEWS - Sources have confirmed, that this Space Rock, is headed Straight for Earth, and will probably have a 100% chance of Landing in the area we know as The White House, in Washington DC,, Thank-You God, if we can''''t IMPEACH the moran, then let the Martians wipe the idiot out !! I just knew if I prayed hard enough and looked to the Stars, they''''d answer my call, Thank-You Msrtian Men in green suits whoever you are, the country Thanks You, and many Government works thank you too, they need a new boss and leader !!!! The Martians are here, their coming !!!


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Posted by JetRanger7 at 05:06 PM : Dec 30, 2007

Hey JetRanger7,

If you are going to knock our President, you might want to learn how to spell "Moron" correctly. Also, you might want to learn the proper use of the word "their" vs. "they''re". You also use way too many commas. Your grammatical skills are not any better than that of the person you are trying to knock. I find that rather ironic.

[co2max]

UPDATE -- Recent investigations have revealed that the weirdos from space have already arrived. They are the ones running around trying to convince us that we are destroying the earth with carbon dioxide emissions.

[jetranger7]

BREAKING NEWS - Sources have confirmed, that this Space Rock, is headed Straight for Earth, and will probably have a 100% chance of Landing in the area we know as The White House, in Washington DC,, Thank-You God, if we can''t IMPEACH the moran, then let the Martians wipe the idiot out !! I just knew if I prayed hard enough and looked to the Stars, they''d answer my call, Thank-You Msrtian Men in green suits whoever you are, the country Thanks You, and many Government works thank you too, they need a new boss and leader !!!! The Martians are here, their coming !!!

[mcv57]

Is not your government wonder; and the alert and responsible folks at NASA to letting us know about an Astroid hitting Mars in a Month''''s advance. But, when it comes for us for an ateroid projection . . . well "you don''''t need to know that" - you will be dead anyway policy - the last one that missed earth nearly missed us.

[mcv57]

It not your government wonder; and the alert and responsible folks at NASA to letting us know about an Astroid hitting Mars in a Month''s advance. But, the when it comes for us . . . well you don''t need to know that - you will be dead anyway policy.

[co2max]

The Catalina Sky Survey (google it to find it) has a catalog of all discovered, tracked, and even missing near-earth and earth-crossing objects they have found. There are approximately 2000 in all so far. Apophis is being watched and it is known to pass actually within 160,000 miles of earth (less than the Earth-Moon distance) which is close astronomically speaking but not even a near-miss as far as planetary ballistics go. What counts in these matters is the gravity well of the target planet. Earth appears in space to passing objects almost 20 times larger to potential impactors due to its gravitational attraction that the planet''s physical size would otherwise indicate. That makes earth an even larger target than Mars is since that planet is not only smaller in diameter but also weaker in gravitational pull. We''ll see how attractive Mars is to WD5. Lacking specific details about WD5''s size and weight, it is difficult to determine how it will behave as its walzed toward Mars. This also makes its future uncertain if it simply zips past mars and gravity swings into a new and likely tighter orbit around the Sun. WD5 has previously been only a Near-earth object so far, and it make a tangential pass of earth''s orbit in November. It is almost certain to become an earth-crossing object if it turns out not to become a part of Mars, which we currently believe will be the result of this close passage.

[slackersmom]

to pjh822: you''re thinking of Apophis, the asteroid, discovered in 2004 (and named for a bad guy from Stargate SG-1).

See Wikipedia for 99942 Apophis.

[pjh822]

Someone correct me if I''m wrong here, but isn''t there supposed to be an asteroid expected to pass within 30,000 miles of Earth in 2028? I seem to remember hearing about it a few years ago. Any new word on that?

[jowand]

"The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent"

Man, they"re really getting astronomy down to a science.
Posted by Iceman_1960 at 02:12 PM : Dec 29, 2007

Better odds than Hillary winning

[iceman_1960]

"The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent"

Man, they"re really getting astronomy down to a science.