Chance Of Asteroid Hitting Mars Increases

But Possibility Of Football Field-Sized Space Rock Hitting Planet Still A Long Shot, Scientists Say

(AP)  The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent, scientists said Friday after analyzing archival data.

Though still a long shot, some researchers are hoping for a cosmic smash.

"I think it'll be cool," said Don Yeomans, who heads the Near-Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I'm not rooting for an impact."

The space rock, known as the nondescript 2007 WD5, was discovered in late November by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona. Based on the latest information available, scientists said last week there was a 1-in-75 chance the asteroid could hit Mars on Jan. 30.

The odds were increased to 1-in-25 this week after a Ph.D. student pored through the archives and plotted the asteroid's motions before its official discovery. The new information allowed scientists to improve their calculations of the asteroid's orbit and flight path.

Scientists will continue to monitor the asteroid to better predict the possibility of a Martian impact. Yeomans said he expects the odds to decrease with new observations gathered early next year.

The likelihood of an asteroid hit usually "peaks before plummeting to zero with additional data," he said.

The asteroid poses no threat to Earth and is closing in on the Red Planet at 27,900 mph.

Should a collision occur, it would likely blast a half-mile-wide crater north of where the rover Opportunity has been exploring since 2004.

The impact could release energy similar to the 1908 Tunguska object that exploded over remote central Siberia and wiped out 60 million trees.

[neouno-2009]

BREAKING NEWS - Sources have confirmed, that this Space Rock, is headed Straight for Earth, and will probably have a 100% chance of Landing in the area we know as The White House, in Washington DC,, Thank-You God, if we can''''t IMPEACH the moran, then let the Martians wipe the idiot out !! I just knew if I prayed hard enough and looked to the Stars, they''''d answer my call, Thank-You Msrtian Men in green suits whoever you are, the country Thanks You, and many Government works thank you too, they need a new boss and leader !!!! The Martians are here, their coming !!!


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Posted by JetRanger7 at 05:06 PM : Dec 30, 2007

Hey JetRanger7,

If you are going to knock our President, you might want to learn how to spell "Moron" correctly. Also, you might want to learn the proper use of the word "their" vs. "they''re". You also use way too many commas. Your grammatical skills are not any better than that of the person you are trying to knock. I find that rather ironic.

[co2max]

UPDATE -- Recent investigations have revealed that the weirdos from space have already arrived. They are the ones running around trying to convince us that we are destroying the earth with carbon dioxide emissions.

[jetranger7]

BREAKING NEWS - Sources have confirmed, that this Space Rock, is headed Straight for Earth, and will probably have a 100% chance of Landing in the area we know as The White House, in Washington DC,, Thank-You God, if we can''t IMPEACH the moran, then let the Martians wipe the idiot out !! I just knew if I prayed hard enough and looked to the Stars, they''d answer my call, Thank-You Msrtian Men in green suits whoever you are, the country Thanks You, and many Government works thank you too, they need a new boss and leader !!!! The Martians are here, their coming !!!

[mcv57]

Is not your government wonder; and the alert and responsible folks at NASA to letting us know about an Astroid hitting Mars in a Month''''s advance. But, when it comes for us for an ateroid projection . . . well "you don''''t need to know that" - you will be dead anyway policy - the last one that missed earth nearly missed us.

[mcv57]

It not your government wonder; and the alert and responsible folks at NASA to letting us know about an Astroid hitting Mars in a Month''s advance. But, the when it comes for us . . . well you don''t need to know that - you will be dead anyway policy.

[co2max]

The Catalina Sky Survey (google it to find it) has a catalog of all discovered, tracked, and even missing near-earth and earth-crossing objects they have found. There are approximately 2000 in all so far. Apophis is being watched and it is known to pass actually within 160,000 miles of earth (less than the Earth-Moon distance) which is close astronomically speaking but not even a near-miss as far as planetary ballistics go. What counts in these matters is the gravity well of the target planet. Earth appears in space to passing objects almost 20 times larger to potential impactors due to its gravitational attraction that the planet''s physical size would otherwise indicate. That makes earth an even larger target than Mars is since that planet is not only smaller in diameter but also weaker in gravitational pull. We''ll see how attractive Mars is to WD5. Lacking specific details about WD5''s size and weight, it is difficult to determine how it will behave as its walzed toward Mars. This also makes its future uncertain if it simply zips past mars and gravity swings into a new and likely tighter orbit around the Sun. WD5 has previously been only a Near-earth object so far, and it make a tangential pass of earth''s orbit in November. It is almost certain to become an earth-crossing object if it turns out not to become a part of Mars, which we currently believe will be the result of this close passage.

[slackersmom]

to pjh822: you''re thinking of Apophis, the asteroid, discovered in 2004 (and named for a bad guy from Stargate SG-1).

See Wikipedia for 99942 Apophis.

[pjh822]

Someone correct me if I''m wrong here, but isn''t there supposed to be an asteroid expected to pass within 30,000 miles of Earth in 2028? I seem to remember hearing about it a few years ago. Any new word on that?

[jowand]

"The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent"

Man, they"re really getting astronomy down to a science.
Posted by Iceman_1960 at 02:12 PM : Dec 29, 2007

Better odds than Hillary winning

[iceman_1960]

"The chance of a football field-sized asteroid plowing into Mars next month has been increased to 4 percent"

Man, they"re really getting astronomy down to a science.

[prairiefox1]

MAYBE IT WILL KNOCK MARS FRAGMENTS TO COLLIDE WITH EARTH AND SAVE ALL THAT MONEY THAT WOULD HAVE SPENT FOR A MARS EXPEDITION!

[lloydbest1]

A few notes from your friendly neighborhood amateur scientist:
There won''t be a glancing blow. This is not like skipping a stone across the water. Even if the asteroid does attack from a very shallow angle there is a strong likelihood the critter will simply detonate above the surface of the planet. Mars may have a p*sswilly atmosphere but it is more than sufficiently thick to burn up a 100 or so meter boulder on any near tangental trajectory. It would probably break up.
So that leaves a direct hit or a near miss. It''s the near miss I''m kind of concerned about. My understanding is the asteroid will pass Mars (if it does) on the side away from Earth. That means any gravitational influence on it will tend to direct its path toward us. And until the object does pass we have no idea where that path will take it.

[toddsr007]

Man, are the Martians going to mad at all of you!

Better them than us..............

[co2max]

Too bad we could not have known about this impending impact sooner. We a lead time of a couple of years, we might have been able to mount a mission that would allow us to put a specifically well suited observation platform in Mars orbit for this event. Of course, with this impact still being a long-shot at 1/25 chance, it would be hard to justify such a mission, but this would be a great opportunity to get an advanced look at what can well happen here on earth in the next few or few hundred years.

[glaswolf]

It would be interesting to engineer an Asteroid''s glancing collision that would rip at the atmosphere of Mars as well as chip the Mar''s body geology. We could view it like a giant shovel with a one scoop deep gouging opportunity. We could selectively expose the Martian subsurface to optimize geological studies, while studying the chemistry thru fallout. It would be cool to put material into orbit around the Sun with an asteroid skip off the Martian surface. Pushing material into the Sun would yield interesting vapor studies. Cool! I vote collision, engineered if possible ... maybe later? Go NASA!

[mikecebu]

Looks like a bunch of "bush basher junkies" here. What an incredible waste of time.

[b-easy63]

"I think it''ll be cool," said Don Yeomans, who heads the Near-Earth Object Program at NASA''s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "Usually when an asteroid is headed toward Earth, I''m not rooting for an impact."


Hmmm sort of like the war in Iraq. A lot of Americans are okay with foreigners being invaded and dying based on our whims--but would not want that same war started and fought in our own back yard. "We fight them there so we don''t have to fight them here" so noble, so just, so pathetic.

[walt1944-2009]

The Great Emperor Bush is pleased that scientists are more confident than ever that a big asteroid will hit Mars in the near future.

This, of course, will mean that the Emperor will not have to spend billions of worthless dollars to send astronauts to Mars, since Mars will be visiting Earth after the asteroid hits. When that day comes, naturally, the Emperor will be deep underground watching the chunks of Mars rock pelt down from the sky on the poor surface dwellers above and hoping that a few large chunks hit the Capital Building!

SIG HEIL, BUSH!!!

[hawksprings]

I hope it hits too.
It''ll be Bush''s fault.

[pinewalker-2009]

I for one, hope it hits. What a terrific opportunity to study intra-solar system object impacts without being in the destruction zone. Better even than Shoemaker-Levy 9 into Jupiter.