Will Ron Paul Play Spoiler?

GOP Presidential Hopeful May Be Polling In The Single Digits, But He's Flush With Cash And Not Going Away

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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Ask Ron Paul's supporters, and they'll tell you they fully expect a certain anti-war, anti-federal reserve, anti-department of education, pro-small federal government congressman from Texas to be the Republican nominee for president.

Ask the pollsters, however, and they'll tell you a different story. Paul has 4 percent support nationally from Republican voters in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll, which puts him in sixth place. He's doing a bit better in the crucial early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire - polls in both states put him around 8 percent support - but he remains a long shot to win either contest.

Polling doesn't mean everything, of course, and Paul's backers will tell you that the numbers don't reflect Paul's true levels of support. But even in New Hampshire, where Republicans are famously libertarian-leaning, the congressman may have reached his ceiling, according to University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala.

"There's still a vein of rugged individualism in New Hampshire, especially among Republicans, but I think Paul has tapped into that vein already," says Scala. "I think we've seen as many as he's gonna get."

Still, Paul has the cash to keep his name, and message, front and center: He raised $6 million in a one-day fundraising drive on Sunday, bringing him to $18 million in the past three months, a stunning total for a candidate polling at less than five percent support nationally. He has been running television ads in New Hampshire as part of a $1.1 million ad buy, and has a new spot in production that will be on the air soon, according to his campaign. He has passionate backers willing to do everything they can to spread the Ron Paul gospel - whether via blog comment, YouTube video featuring original music, or giant blimp. And he has vowed to stay in the race until at least Feb. 5th.

All of which means Paul has a real chance to make a difference in who becomes the Republican presidential nominee - even if it's not him. In New Hampshire, independent voters can vote in either party's primary, and Paul, one of the few GOP candidates to break with Republican orthodoxy on a number of issues, is fighting for their support. His main rivals may be two other candidates who appeal to unaffiliated voters: Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama.

McCain's strategy in the crucial first primary state, in fact, relies largely on winning over independents, who helped him beat George W. Bush by 18 points in the 2000 New Hampshire primary. McCain recently won the endorsement of perhaps the country's most well-known independent - Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut - and has been touring the state with him in an effort to woo independent voters.

Paul and McCain are the sorts of candidates that make traditional Republican primary voters uneasy, in part because of their positions on the war (in Paul's case) and illegal immigration (in McCain's.) But there is one crucial difference, according to Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group: Republican primary voters don't see Paul as a potential winner.

"Undeclared voters want to pick a candidate who has some chance of being president," says Bennett. "The vast majority of those voters don't believe that Paul does."

Bennett characterizes Paul's supporters as "out of the Republican mainstream."

"It's a mixture of old-right conservatives that feel a little disenfranchised with where they Republican Party has gone," says Paul spokesman Jesse Benton. "A lot of independents who are sick and tired of this war and Democrats who won't commit to significant troop level reductions until 2013. And there's a whole new base of supporters, people in their 20s and 30s, who have not been in politics before."

Benton acknowledges the difficulty of convincing traditional Republican voters to support Paul.

"One of the characteristics of being a conservative is loyalty," Benton says. "Conservatives are very loyal. So it's been a difficult conversation to talk to conservatives about this war, especially conservatives who are remaining loyal to the Bush administration and our failed policy in Iraq."

Paul is a polarizing figure: The only GOP candidate who regularly gets booed in debates, he also inspires the kind of rabid support from his supporters you rarely see for more traditional candidates like Mitt Romney.

"I don't think he's anybody's second choice," says Scala. "You either love the guy, think he's the answer to the country's problems, or you've either never heard of the guy and have all these negative perceptions of him."

If the majority of Paul's supporters are truly outsiders to the political process, his presence in the race may not make much difference, since Paul voters wouldn't have broken for a candidate like McCain in the first place. But Paul's campaign, with its decentralized fundraising and unabashed libertarian ethos, has already proven that it can surprise people. Pressed to compare Paul to candidates who have come before him, Scala takes a good ten seconds to answer.

"Steve Forbes was a bit of a libertarian on economic issues, but he's nothing like Paul," says Scala. "There's Pat Buchanan in 1992, but that doesn't really work either. This campaign so far has really been in a class by itself."

[esteele4paul]

Our current fascist administration has made a mockery of democracy. George W. Bush didn''t win the election in 2000. He STOLE the election, having been installed by five supreme court justices. A true mockery of democracy. And it is highly unlike that he won the election in 2004. (CNN''s exit poll showed Kerry beating Bush among Ohio women by 53 percent to 47 percent. Kerry also defeated Bush among Ohio''s male voters 51 percent to 49 percent. Investigative reporter Greg Palast in an article today details how the deciding states, Ohio and New Mexico, if all votes were actually counted, should have gone to Kerry. Palast explains, "Although the exit polls show that most voters in Ohio punched cards for Kerry-Edwards, thousands of these votes were simply not recorded. The election in Ohio was not decided by the voters but by something called "spoilage." Typically in the United States, about 3 percent of the vote is voided, just thrown away, not recorded.")

We have to protect ourselves against voter fraud in 2008! Demand a return to paper ballots, and that every vote be counted! Otherwise, we do not have a true democracy!

[esteele4paul]

When will the media start taking Ron Paul seriously?He is a force to be dealt with! and so are his constituents... we mean to take this country back! Back from the corruption and greed and fascism that is currently destroying it! Let''s get back to less government, and a government that is governed by the people! Have we forgotten what democracy means?

"government by the people; especially : rule of the majority b: a government in which the supreme power is vested in the people and exercised by them directly or indirectly through a system of representation usually involving periodically held free elections".

[crater7]

HE IS HONEST, HE HIS UNCORRUPRABLE AND HE WANTS THE BEST FOR AMERICA:

THE THREE DON''TS FOR A REPUBLICAN. HONEST, UNCORRUPTABLE, AND FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

CORPORATE ETHNOCENTRIC REPUBS WILL NEVER SUPPORT HIM.

GOOD LUCK MR. PAUL.

[scottfrostlp]

Ron Paul will not play spoiler. Ron Paul will play winner.

[darius137]

Ron Paul may not coincide with 100% of your views, but he is honest, he is uncorruptable and he wants the best for America.

The worst that happens is that we reduce the deficit, let the world solve its own problems and we find new ways to deal with problems that we haven''t solved in the ways we''re currently trying to.

[castlemaninc]

When I was a kid I watched the Olympics in Los Angeles during 1984. I was patriotic back then. Ron Paul gives me hope that I may be able to be proud of my country once again.

Go Ron Paul. Is it too late for me to move to Iowa ?

[frdm08]

I''m looking forward to Ron Paul spoiling the party for the Military Industrial Complex, Corporations, Lobbyists, Special Interests, Globalists, Socialists, the Federal Reserve Banking Cartel and every unelected bureaucrat creating new laws and regulations to squash my liberty and take my money.

The FCC ''s ruling in favor of media consolidation is a perfect example of a government that is out of control and no longer representative of its people. Despite the pleas of American citizens all across this country and the pleas of the Congress; they ruled in favor of the corporations.

When 5 bureaucrats can overrule the People and the Congress; it''s time for a change!!!

The Revolution has only just begun. Ron Paul 2008!

[cfin5]

I''m sure WE THE PEOPLE will be spoiling some spoiled "public servants" plans of usurpation. If there is something "spoiled" and we fix it, that is called a "cure". Folks that think alike this way are still plentiful in this country and we''ve been waiting for someone to step up to the plate for us. We''ve been suckered a few times indeed. There is a pattern to this in that everyone of them have been CFR members that will brazenly place hand over heart publicly towards our flag...........RON PAUL, the un-CFR member and student of the Constitution in 2008! GO USA!!!

[freegirl1]

RON PAUL 2008 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[freegirl1]

Searing truth, you keep saying that people aren''t informed. At least they are making a choice. I still have yet to read which candidate you are voting for. So better to vote for no one? That''s the only message you are sending to me. And stop using this forum to promote your lame web-site. I read it and I still don''t see what was so searingly truthful? You are deranged and make no sense. If you stand for NOTHING you will fall for anything. Have the guts to say who you are voting for or shut up. Give an alternative and why it is better or you really have no argument here. You are just another talk talk talk and do nothing. So post which candidate, or what course of action you say would be better or SHUT UP!

[coolprophet]

RON PAUL IS THE NEW WAY
What we need is a President who will show us the way. Not the old way. Not the same way, but a NEW way. Think about this for a minute. What if we pulled all of our troops out of South Korea? They''ve been there for 50+ years. What if we quit worrying about Iran, but instead, realized that its having a nuclear weapon will not mean the end of the world? What if we pulled all of our troops out of the Middle-East, and brought them all home? What if we realistically addressed the National Debt, and paid attention to REALLY DOING SOMETHING about stopping illegal immigration? These are the ideas of Presidential candidate, Ron Paul. He''s a ten term Congressman and a physician who has delivered over 4,000 babies. He''s an intellectual who''s published four books, three of which are devoted entirely to sound economics and one to foreign policy. He was raised on a dairy farm in Pennsylvania as a pious Lutheran, but now he attends a Baptist church. Paul is given to mulling things over morally. Whenever he recollects the helicopter pilots he treated as an Air Force Flight Surgeon (Captain) during the Vietnam War, a war which he now says was "totally unnecessary and illegal," he laments, "They were gung-ho. I''ve often thought about how many of those people never came back." Candidates with the high level of personal integrity and proven track record of adherence to The Constitution, Congressman Paul has always demonstrated only come around once in a lifetime, if we''re lucky.

[coolprophet]

HOPE FOR AMERICA: PRESIDENT RON PAUL
RonPaul2008.com

-- No more meddling in other country''s political affairs
-- No more aggressive military actions overseas
-- No more torture prisons
-- No more pseudo-wars like the "War on Drugs"
-- No more IRS and unconstitutional income taxes
-- No more Federal Reserve (the group of private banks which owns our government)
-- No more erosion of Social Security to pay for militarization
-- No more U.N. (one world government) participation
-- No more NAFTA, CAFTA, WTO or GATT (globalist trade cartels)
-- No more North American Union (loss of U.S. sovereignty)
-- No more federal gun control laws
-- No more illegal aliens pouring-in over our country''s borders
-- No more illegal aliens allowed to roam freely in our streets
-- No more national ID cards (Real ID Act)
-- No more government invasion of your privacy
-- No more federal Laws which force you to take unwanted injections
-- No more federal Laws which are not authorized by The Constitution
-- No more federal erosion of State sovereignty
-- No more unlimited federal government

"Wars are poor chisels for carving-out peaceful tomorrows."
- Martin Luther King Jr.

"When the people fear their government, you have tyranny. When the government fears the people, you have liberty."
- Thomas Jefferson

"Ron Paul doesn''t represent your Father''s school of political thought. He represents your Founding Fathers."
- Me

[toolmangler-2009]

Once Ron Paul is chosen as the Republican nominee, the dems or the 3rd parties will not stand a chance. WE THE PEOPLE, DO NOT WANT ANYMORE BIG GOVERNMENT, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AND DO NOT WANT WARMONGERS IN OUR WHITE HOUSE PERIOD, all the other candidates from both sides offer that with the exception of RON PAUL.

Posted by tess1012 at 12:47 PM : Dec 20, 2007


Son we get rid of the Government and dissolve into 50 autonomous individual States, right? Since some states have oil and some don''t, we can see what will happen, Bushy_baby will make Texas invade Oklahoma so he can control their oil. Arkansas will forbid Walmart/China to deal the the ''carpetbaggers from New York/yankee land. California will refuse to allow it mexacans to harvest anybodys crops without a tarrif on all good processed be them. (And tom Bodett says "WOW")

[tessies101]

Some of the negativity towards Ron Paul will be crushed when the Primary votes are counted and he is nominated. The NEW Republican voters, who are the majority in the Republican party right now will make a difference at the polls because we will be voting for Ron Paul. Our nation will have to listen to the People, and no longer to Corporate America/Big Government hogwash. Once Ron Paul is chosen as the Republican nominee, the dems or the 3rd parties will not stand a chance. WE THE PEOPLE, DO NOT WANT ANYMORE BIG GOVERNMENT, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AND DO NOT WANT WARMONGERS IN OUR WHITE HOUSE PERIOD, all the other candidates from both sides offer that with the exception of RON PAUL. I am proud to be an American, but I am not proud of what our government is doing to my country here or overseas. I, like many military members will put our money and votes where it will count, and that will be with our next President, Ron Paul.

http://RonPaul2008.com

Tess, California

[manq-2009]

The people who support someone other than Ron Paul are already all over the fear card - telling people their made up assumptions as fact i.e. "every social program will disappear"

This is simply not correct. The people who have the capacity to understand Paul''s brilliance and recognize his integrity will be out en masse in the primary elections and ready to fight. That is an element no other presidential candidate has. The proof is in the Meetup groups.

[deemsnyd]

well, right? Love that department of education. Let''s all have socialized medicine and wait for 4 months with a critical condition to see a doctor. No, wait, let''s let the UN and other foreign gov''t groups keep running things and end up one big ''ole happy entity with Canada,USA,and Mexico as one nation.

[deemsnyd]

well, right? Love that department of education. Let''s all have socialized medicine and wait for 4 months with a critical condition to see a doctor. No, wait, let''s let the UN and other foreign gov''t groups keep running things and end up one big ''ole happy entity with Canada,USA,and Mexico as one nation.

[deemsnyd]

One in particular on these posts keeps talking about Ron Paul wanting to take away our pulic roads, public education, and heathcare. HUH?? He is simply stating that these things need not be managed by the federal government. They need to be governed by the state. He''s not saying that the ultra rich are going to take away these simple necessities, he''s saying that the federal government is *** it all up and we need to elect local state officials to do what we want--they will listen much more so than the federal government listens to anyone! Why would you, oh wise poster, insult everyone''s intelligence to the point that you would have us believe that we won''t have roads to drive on, schools to go to, or healthcare? If it''s that big of a question, go to ronpaul2008.com where he gets to tell people what he believes. He hasn''t voted one way and spoken another either. That in itself counts for something. You seem to talk about a few things that you think will happen if he is elected(the ones I have mentioned)where are your opinions on his other stances? He has lots and lots--have you read them? You have him pegged as a libertarian republican, supported of course by his views--tell us, what would you have him be? What we have had in the past has worked so well, right?

[vonmises2]

Well, I suppose we''ll have these foolish people talking about things they don''t understand. Forced government education may be partial blame but there''s stupid people everywhere. Just a little reading of Ron Paul and a real understanding of the struggle for freedom that ended in our Declaration of Independence and ensuing Constitution should put a level headed person in the right frame of mind to vote for Ron Paul and quick mucking about.

[querydawg]

"Libertarians don''t really "want" a dictatorship or tyranny by the rich and powerful over the poor and weak, but unfortunately The Constitution of the United States of America actually "allows" it."
~SearingTruth


"No one on my block is holding a party for the fascist absolution of our American ideals. Instead they''re going for The Constitution of the United States of America."
~SearingTruth


"And we thought we were a Democratic Republic that stood as the leading defender of individual liberty, human rights, and justice for 225 years. But actually we''ve simply been ignorant of our founding fathers intended purpose that we be just another simple fascist police state, for 225 years."
~SearingTruth

Wow.

You are full of contradictions and ignorance. Your first quote explains it all. You are anti-constitution because you believe it actually CREATES tyranny. But in your 2nd quote, everyone on your block is going for it, Why? It''s tyrannical! BTW, you are misusing the word fascist. You clearly do not understand the meaning of the word. A decentralized government is the antithesis of fascism and a police state but why quibble over facts, right? Also, you are equally ignorant in your belief that we were a Democratic Republic. Look for that phrase in the Constitution, Bill of Rights, Declaration of Independence or the Federalist Papers. Good luck finding it.

"It''s better to remain silent and be thought a fool then to open your mouth and remove all doubt", too late for you.