Will Ron Paul Play Spoiler?
GOP Presidential Hopeful May Be Polling In The Single Digits, But He's Flush With Cash And Not Going Away
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Ask Ron Paul's supporters, and they'll tell you they fully expect a certain anti-war, anti-federal reserve, anti-department of education, pro-small federal government congressman from Texas to be the Republican nominee for president.
Ask the pollsters, however, and they'll tell you a different story. Paul has 4 percent support nationally from Republican voters in the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll, which puts him in sixth place. He's doing a bit better in the crucial early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire - polls in both states put him around 8 percent support - but he remains a long shot to win either contest.
Polling doesn't mean everything, of course, and Paul's backers will tell you that the numbers don't reflect Paul's true levels of support. But even in New Hampshire, where Republicans are famously libertarian-leaning, the congressman may have reached his ceiling, according to University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala.
"There's still a vein of rugged individualism in New Hampshire, especially among Republicans, but I think Paul has tapped into that vein already," says Scala. "I think we've seen as many as he's gonna get."
Still, Paul has the cash to keep his name, and message, front and center: He raised $6 million in a one-day fundraising drive on Sunday, bringing him to $18 million in the past three months, a stunning total for a candidate polling at less than five percent support nationally. He has been running television ads in New Hampshire as part of a $1.1 million ad buy, and has a new spot in production that will be on the air soon, according to his campaign. He has passionate backers willing to do everything they can to spread the Ron Paul gospel - whether via blog comment, YouTube video featuring original music, or giant blimp. And he has vowed to stay in the race until at least Feb. 5th.
All of which means Paul has a real chance to make a difference in who becomes the Republican presidential nominee - even if it's not him. In New Hampshire, independent voters can vote in either party's primary, and Paul, one of the few GOP candidates to break with Republican orthodoxy on a number of issues, is fighting for their support. His main rivals may be two other candidates who appeal to unaffiliated voters: Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama.
McCain's strategy in the crucial first primary state, in fact, relies largely on winning over independents, who helped him beat George W. Bush by 18 points in the 2000 New Hampshire primary. McCain recently won the endorsement of perhaps the country's most well-known independent - Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut - and has been touring the state with him in an effort to woo independent voters.
Paul and McCain are the sorts of candidates that make traditional Republican primary voters uneasy, in part because of their positions on the war (in Paul's case) and illegal immigration (in McCain's.) But there is one crucial difference, according to Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group: Republican primary voters don't see Paul as a potential winner.
"Undeclared voters want to pick a candidate who has some chance of being president," says Bennett. "The vast majority of those voters don't believe that Paul does."
Bennett characterizes Paul's supporters as "out of the Republican mainstream."
"It's a mixture of old-right conservatives that feel a little disenfranchised with where they Republican Party has gone," says Paul spokesman Jesse Benton. "A lot of independents who are sick and tired of this war and Democrats who won't commit to significant troop level reductions until 2013. And there's a whole new base of supporters, people in their 20s and 30s, who have not been in politics before."
Benton acknowledges the difficulty of convincing traditional Republican voters to support Paul.
"One of the characteristics of being a conservative is loyalty," Benton says. "Conservatives are very loyal. So it's been a difficult conversation to talk to conservatives about this war, especially conservatives who are remaining loyal to the Bush administration and our failed policy in Iraq."
Paul is a polarizing figure: The only GOP candidate who regularly gets booed in debates, he also inspires the kind of rabid support from his supporters you rarely see for more traditional candidates like Mitt Romney.
"I don't think he's anybody's second choice," says Scala. "You either love the guy, think he's the answer to the country's problems, or you've either never heard of the guy and have all these negative perceptions of him."
If the majority of Paul's supporters are truly outsiders to the political process, his presence in the race may not make much difference, since Paul voters wouldn't have broken for a candidate like McCain in the first place. But Paul's campaign, with its decentralized fundraising and unabashed libertarian ethos, has already proven that it can surprise people. Pressed to compare Paul to candidates who have come before him, Scala takes a good ten seconds to answer.
"Steve Forbes was a bit of a libertarian on economic issues, but he's nothing like Paul," says Scala. "There's Pat Buchanan in 1992, but that doesn't really work either. This campaign so far has really been in a class by itself."
By Brian Montopoli
© MMVII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.





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See all 326 Commentsliberty and freedom can only be provided by ROn Paul - research the other candidates and you will see they are all the same - they think they know what is best for you...
Ron Paul - hope for America.... land of the free and the brave.
it''s scary when someone who appear intelligent is so opposed to Ron Paul because of some of his stances that they will back someone who is 100 times more ''immoral''
please, if you are a real republican, research Ron Paul and help save liberty in America... he is our last hope.
http://www.showbuzz.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/12/19/people/main3630609.shtml
They will never ever regain their role as a source to educate people about candidates or just general politics.
Mainstream media today is Public Relations, it''s advertisement, and it''s been purchased by a group of people who intend to take this country into a certain direction. That direction isn''t toward Democracy.
I hope Paul supporters wake up to this fact, and realize that their candidate will never be supported by the media anymore than Pravda would be reporting on Democratic movements during the height of the Soviet Union.
http://RonPaul2008.com
So who has a land line, is home around dinner time when pollsters call, ignores their caller ID telling them they are about to talk to someone they don''t know, and agrees to talk to a pollster? Someone should take a poll.
By the way, I wholeheartedly support Ron Paul and have changed my party affiliation to Republican so I can vote for him in the Oregon primaries.
Extremists have been proven to be unelectable: McGovern comes to mind among others.
40 year old engineer, middle class veteran, X-Generation. I vote for who I think is the best candidate. I even voted Green one time. I have a landline and I never have ever received a call from any pollsters. I know many people including my bro he has only a cell and is voting for Ron. We even convinced my die hard republican parents who are in there late 60''s. It took several You Tube Video''s though and they are now hooked. People are opening there eyes and seeing for the first time how corrupt things are and how good Freedom truly can be. You can only be lied to for so long and then one day someone shows you the way as Ron is doing. If Ron doesn''t get nominated, this is one of many I am sure will be writing his name in!!!
ok first of all if you never heard of him why would you have negative perceptions of him, see this girl doesnt even know what she is saying. why would we listen to someone who is paid anyhow to say what they want her to say..
Thanks for the article but this is ***,,I dont think you guys would know a winner if it bit you in the hiney.. You guys are so bought by the owner of your company, and told what to report on and you have proven that with RON PAUL .. HE has won ALLLLL The polls online abc cbs cnn fox you name it he has won them and not to mention alot of the straw polls and causcuses as well but do you guys even mention that ??? Geeez I can''t believe you call yourself a reporter. Im ashamed of you and if your job means more to you then truth then so be it. I rather you not report on ROn if you gonna report *** like this. GO look at what being an AMerican is sir and ponder on it. And start acting like one.
Have a nice day.
Lib3rty
Extremists have been proven to be unelectable: McGovern comes to mind among others.
Posted by donbl1 at 10:51 AM : Dec 19, 2007"
One man''s extremist is another man''s grass-roots champion.
I''d agree he''s extremist if he didn''t 100% support the Constitution and the ideals this country was founded upon and supposed to exude. He''s "extremely" fond of the Constitution and reducing big government, certainly.
Ron Paul is "the" man.
You rock! No bones about it...great post!
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Posted by nexgen99 at 10:53 AM : Dec 19, 2007
+ report abuse
BALONEY, RUDY AND HUCK AND THE RABBLE ARE THE UNELECTABLES no group of people other than partisans, neo conservatives and cultist Christian will vote for either of these guys and guess what they are no longer the likely voters WE THE PEOPLE ARE..
Vote for any of the other "front runners".
Extremists have been proven to be unelectable: McGovern comes to mind among others.
Posted by donbl1 at 10:51 AM : Dec 19, 2007"
One man''''s extremist is another man''''s grass-roots champion.
I''''d agree he''''s extremist if he didn''''t 100% support the Constitution and the ideals this country was founded upon and supposed to exude. He''''s "extremely" fond of the Constitution and reducing big government, certainly.
Ron Paul is "the" man.
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Posted by NavyRetired2 at 10:57 AM : Dec 19, 2007
+ report abuse
Yes true, I for example believe Huckabee as a member of anti woman cult Christian faith who would subvert the criminal code with his fringe beliefs and views is an unacceptable extremist and I would never vote for him under any circumstance and would actively passionately work against that choice.
Can you imagine if Hillary won
Any time she would want to communize another sector of society (after health care),
all the Clintonista brownshirts would be goose-stepping around
like politically-correct brain-dead zombies chanting:
"do it for the children"
"do it for the children"
"do it for the children" ,,,, ad nauseum
OBAMA 2008
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Posted by skykk at 11:01 AM : Dec 19, 2007
More ***, if the Dems go to the fringe and present a weak nominee with Obamas lack of expertise, talent and personal history only charm just like the Bush resume, the Dems will not regain the White House. If the Repugs put up Huck then a 3rd party will win that will be true change and Hope and it will be the correct one. It is the non fringe candidate that will win regardless of party.
A record $6 million in a single day is more of a footnote than an indication of support. I see.
For more on where Paul''s "ceiling" might be, and his chances of being a "spoiler" for neo-conservative candidates see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dewey_Defeats_Truman
While I find CBS''s coverage of the Paul campaign pretty well balanced on the whole, I find this line of thinking rather poorly substantiated.
P.S. Paul isn''t the one to "break with Republican orthodoxy on a number of issues", it''s the neo-conservatives doing that.
Ron Paul may not win, but he is a symbol of hope. Perhaps he is a forerunner of change in the future. Our nation is in decline, but it is possible that the flames of freedom may be rekindled by devoted adherents.
Like Winston Churchill said, "Never, never, never give up!"
Ron Paul may not win, but he is a symbol of hope. Perhaps he is a forerunner of change in the future. Our nation is in decline, but it is possible that the flames of freedom may be rekindled by devoted adherents.
Like Winston Churchill said, "Never, never, never give up!"
Posted by random_radar
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Winston Churchill was not a coward. It was others who thought like Ron Paul who refused to listen to Winston Churchill about the threat from Germany and that''s why America cannot afford Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is a great American.
Posted by micma
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He would be an even greater American if he went into retirement.
Go Ron!
Ron Paul has a clear message: Let''s hold our government accountable, stop the free spending habits of both parties and bring our troops home & out of harm''s way as quick as we possibly can.
Under sound leadership this country will be back on the course of freedom, liberty & prosperity for all out citizens. America will once again be the land of the free & home of the brave where the true patriots are those who question the government not those who blindly follow.
We can all get behind Dr. Paul and his plan for fiscal responsibility that will return the dollar to its rightful place among the global currencies. The US will move forward again as the greatest free nation on earth.
I''m voting for Congressman Ron Paul in the NYS Feb 5th GOP Primary.
While I suppose CBS is partial to its own polls, and this article reported CBS''s national poll numbers, Ron Paul is enjoying increased support in NH according to Fox''s latest NH poll, where he''s showing 8% among NH likely Republicans up from 4% just 3 weeks ago.
And in contrast to the articles comment that "I don''t think he''s anybody''s second choice," says Scala , that same poll shows that Ron Paul is second choice among 40% of McCain supporters, and 31% of Huckabee supporters.
Given the +-4% margin of error for the polls and the questionable accuracy of polls as they apply to Ron Paul supporters (who actually HOPE there will be blizzards on caucus and primary dates) there''s a REALLY good chance Ron Paul will be third or better in Iowa and NH and second or better in SC.
Take a look at Fox''s latest NH poll at:
see www(dot)foxnews(dot)com/projects/pdf/FOX_NH-2_DEC_RELEASE_WEB.pdf
Ron Paul will do much better than the MSM is reporting. Get used to it.
What will happen to Social Security under his leadership?
What will change about Medicare?
How will he be hamstrung by an opposing Congress in doing what he wants to get accomplished?
I do not have answers to those questions but I think they need to be answered before I vote for him...
The MSM can keep playing musical front runner with their antequated polls and Republicrat flavor of the week and the Revolution will still move forward. People are waking up all over the country.
Ron Paul''s message of truth and freedom is more powerful than the hit pieces by the MSM, and there''s 18.5 million dollars to prove it. Thank CBS for inspiring me to work even harder to have this great man elected to our nation''s highest office.
If you haven''t heard Ron Paul speak, Google him, Youtube him, find out the truth for yourself and then join in the fun! Freedom is popular!
NAFTA Superhighway Giuliani as a key player.
http://www.renewamerica.us/columns/grassi/070504 .
Who would the world elect
http://www.whowouldtheworldelect.com/ .
Important facts.
He has never voted to raise taxes.
He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
He has never voted for a federal restriction on gun ownership.
He has never voted to raise congressional pay.
He has never taken a government-paid junket.
He has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch.
He does not participate in the lucrative congressional pension program.
He returns a portion of his annual congressional office budget to the U.S. treasury every year.
He voted against the Patriot Act.
He voted against the Iraq war.
Ron Paul''s record:
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