New Warning On Arctic Ice Cap Melting

(CBS/AP)  An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One speculates that summer sea ice might be gone in just five years.

Greenland's ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer's end was half what it was just four years earlier, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by The Associated Press.

"The Arctic is screaming," said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government's snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.

Just last year, two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: "At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions."

So scientists in recent days have been asking themselves these questions: Was the record melt seen all over the Arctic in 2007 a blip amid relentless and steady warming? Or has everything sped up to a new climate cycle that goes beyond the worst case scenarios presented by computer models?

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming," said Zwally, who as a teenager hauled coal. "Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."

It is the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels that produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, responsible for man-made global warming. For the past several days, government diplomats have been debating in Bali, Indonesia, the outlines of a new climate treaty calling for tougher limits on these gases.

What happens in the Arctic has implications for the rest of the world. Faster melting there means eventual sea level rise and more immediate changes in winter weather because of less sea ice.

In the United States, a weakened Arctic blast moving south to collide with moist air from the Gulf of Mexico can mean less rain and snow in some areas, including the drought-stricken Southeast, said Michael MacCracken, a former federal climate scientist who now heads the nonprofit Climate Institute. Some regions, like Colorado, would likely get extra rain or snow.

More than 18 scientists told the AP that they were surprised by the level of ice melt this year.

"I don't pay much attention to one year ... but this year the change is so big, particularly in the Arctic sea ice, that you've got to stop and say, 'What is going on here?' You can't look away from what's happening here," said Waleed Abdalati, NASA's chief of cyrospheric sciences. "This is going to be a watershed year."

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[erasmus6]

No. The Arctic was not melting last winter. The Arctic has not been melting relentlessly.


Posted by octavianfdlr at 12:38 PM : Dec 14, 2007


Hmmm, do you think this person is from this planet? Maybe they are just visiting from another planet, that would explain the ignorance, wouldn''t it?

[rheola-2009]

No. The Arctic was not melting last winter. The Arctic has not been melting relentlessly.


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Posted by octavianfdlr at 12:38 PM : Dec 14, 2007

Sort of a ridiculous statement, bit akin to saying it is dark of a night.

[the_quietman]

We have only been in space for a relatively few years sp all we can see is the ''Elephants Tail'' from that angle. From the latest satellite technology we now know that there is an active volcano under Greenland (no I haven''t seen a CBS article on it yet but the information is available from other on-line News media. From telescopes we see Jupiter, Mars and even Pluto warming from Solar activity. The ''stop global warming'' group is in total denial of the natural causes because there is not a thing that can be done to stop it, not that cleaning up our air isn''t a good idea anyway. But getting back to the article, this is NOT the first time that the arctic will be ice free and it won''t be the last. Quoting a recent paper:
''''According to the sim hypothesis, this cycle should be like Sunspot Cycle No 14, and be followed by two that will create a brief ice age.'''' - MACKEY, R., 2007. Rhodes Fairbridge and the idea that the solar system regulates the Earth%u2019s climate. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 50 (Proceedings of the 9th International Coastal Symposium), 955 %u2013 968. Gold Coast, Australia, ISSN 0749.0208
The paper is a true tribute to Dr. Fairbridge and a real eye opener, even for three blind men.

[samsel3]

andor3 ........The Scientific method is used. No one can dispute the photos taken over the years from space. A picture is worth a thousand words. however, the blind can''t see, and neither can people & business groups with private agendas.

[andor3]

"Of course they look for evidence that only supports their theory or did you not learn this in school. First you have a hypothesis, then a theory, duh! Then another scientist will try to disprove the theory, cherrypicking as they go along. Don''t believe me? Go look up how the theory of realitivity was developed."

Interesting distortion of the scientific method, but not surprising. You left out the first step- research. You look at what other people have done, then maybe do some research of your own, THEN you look for a hypothesis that fits ALL of the facts your research discovered. More research may lead to more facts and a new hypothesis.

Of course, in your version, you form a hypothesis that fits your political/religious/economic views FIRST, the select any facts that might fit. If you need more, you buy some research. And of course you ignore research that does not fit your "lets pretend" science.

Most scientists who see evidence of human-caused climate change did not start outlooking for that, most have changed their mind based on evidence and interaction.

[andor3]

"IN THE BEGINNING EARTH WAS MOSTLY VOLCANOES ERUPTING AND SPEWING FORTH ALL KINDS OF GASES AND MATERIAL!
EARTH RECOVERED VERY NICELY..."

Exactly. And at that time the Earth could not support human life. The Earth will be here. It is human life in question now. This is not charity, it is about survival.

[octavianfdlr]

"An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One speculates that summer sea ice might be gone in just five years." --The above article
----------------
No. The Arctic was not melting last winter. The Arctic has not been melting relentlessly.

[samsel3]

The Bush administration has rejected reduction of fossile fuel burning citing severe economic impacts.The Cheney energy policy expands US interests in The Caspian Sea region where one third of the world''s oil remains untapped. Big Oil does not want alternative energy because they are profit motivated. Big Oil & Corporate America dictate US policy not the people. We are just pawns in their game.

[dudelookslikeachimp]

Oh on the treaties? I note that Bush is in lose-lose situation.

If he agrees to their mandatory limits now then there is no need for follow on conferences - just get the US nose to the grindstone on reduction.

The EU has said one way or another it is not following his conference. Which is fine as the EU has a history of bad solutions to problems. Lots of action but no good direction.

Again the minor human thumb on the scale is CO2 balance -- which has two parts CO2 production and CO2 recycling. CO2 production is more easily countered by planting CO2 recycling plants. There might be some call for genetic engineering there and hydroponic gardens. And guess what? That helps put mankind on a path to space that gets industry off the surface of this planet.

[dudelookslikeachimp]

Funny have you looked at how much CO2 volcanic process put in the air worldwide? Human pollution add-ons are pretty local to bigger urban areas. Volcanoes do it even at sea (78% of Earth).

If anything the human contribution is the killing of plant mass in the equation. Replant efficient CO2 re-processors or stop eating (i.e. die) and stop technology that kills plants (all non-dead plant reclamation tech).