Analysis: Iowa Polls Drove Huckabee Surge

Anthony Salvanto Says Influence Of Pre-Caucus Polls Proven By One-Time Dark Horse's Rapid Rise Into National Spotlight

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News pollster Anthony Salvanto.

---

Mike Huckabee's quick ascent in the national polls speaks volumes about the influence not only of Iowa, but of all the polling done in the state before the caucuses.

Huckabee was climbing in the standings among Iowans, and then he moved up nationally - even though the Hawkeye state is the only spot he's really campaigning. While winning Iowa has historically been a way for a candidate to vault into national prominence, for the former Arkansas Governor, just doing well in its pre-election surveys is having that same impact.

Huckabee rose from also-ran status of four percent in the October CBS News/New York Times to 21%, and just shy of first place, among Republican voters in this week's poll.

In between the two national polls, our November poll of Iowa found Huckabee coming on strong there, as have a flurry of other recent Iowa polls (17 are listed on www.pollster.com released between mid-November and now.)

And then there's been plenty of national coverage generated from all those results: a quick Lexis-Nexis search on the words "Huckabee," "Poll," and "surge" - just to pick an action verb - for the last 90 days turned up 889 citations.

Because Huckabee hasn't been a national figure - until now - it's the really attentive voters around the country, presumably watching all this Iowa coverage, the most likely ones now considering Huckabee. In the CBS News national poll, Huckabee leads the GOP pack among voters paying a lot of attention to the race. Among those paying just some attention, he's third, and Giuliani is the national leader. (Sure, Huckabee has been in debates televised to a national audience, but he was in them before all these Iowa polls documented his rise, too.)

Still, a question lingers: if Iowa polls can have so much national impact, what about Mitt Romney? He was doing very well in Iowa polling throughout the summer, but not nationally.
The answer may be partly about rising attention as the primaries near, and partly about getting the attention of a key GOP voting bloc. Much of Huckabee's national backing now comes from white evangelical Christians, a group of voters that has increased its attention since October (27% are paying a lot now, up from 18%). Polls in the fall said that it's important for a candidate to share their religious beliefs. (Huckabee does.) In October, most Evangelical GOP primary voters hadn't heard of Mike Huckabee; now a majority has, and they're very favorable toward him.

Will any of this matter on January 4th, a day after Iowa's votes are in? Maybe. Along with the exposure from these state polls, Huckabee has also now entered the expectations game, so if he doesn't do well on caucus day interest in him might evaporate overnight. But, there are voters in other early states (like New Hampshire) liable to be influenced right now. For example: in 2004 when John Kerry won New Hampshire, he won the voters who'd made up their minds only after Iowa was settled. But a quarter had made up their minds more than a month before that primary, and they voted for Howard Dean. That wasn't nearly enough for Dean, of course, but such early-deciding voters exist, and every voter can matter in a tight contest.

Either way, it's interesting to watch this brand new dynamic play out in 2008: an update, perhaps, on Iowa’s tradition of influence. In the years leading up to the 1976 primaries, a then-largely unknown Jimmy Carter was going door-to-door in Iowa, defining what later would become the go-to strategy for aspirants without money or name recognition. Carter's campaign counted on early wins to grab attention and create a national splash.

In this front-loaded, earlier-than-ever primary schedule of 2008, it might be fitting that Iowa’s impact is making itself felt even before its votes are cast.

[ih2005]

And FairTax supporters like what Huck has learned about the FairTax ( http://snipr.com/nextrung ) and were a major reason he was out of the gate in fine fashion at the Iowa Straw Poll. Support from others ( http://snipr.com/dollars4huck ) will be essential for Huck to get the nomination and go on to become our next President.

[wasatch01-2009]

I''m baffled as to why Iowans are supporting Huckabee. Mike Huckabee says a lot of things that sound good to uninformed voters (like high school students), but nobody seems to be paying attention to what this guy actually says and what his record is. Huckabee gave out over 1000 commutations and pardons. He rose over $500 million in taxes. He also supported college tuition breaks for illegal immigrants. All of this while Governor of Arkansas. Trust me, though he %u201Csounds good%u201D with his witty one-liners and lip service to stir the emotions%u2026Huckabee is not the guy for the GOP

[michaellitz2]

What Iowa did, very simply, along with the nationally televised debates was to give people the opportunity to get a look at Huckabee. I for one was impressed with him the first time I heard him. I have continued to be more and more impressed with him the
more I get to know him. He is refreshingly honest and straightforward. He has a great sense of humor and a great way of looking at problems. I believe he has the "pulse" of the people and knows how to express the feelings we have as American citizens. His appeal is broad-based much like that of the late Ronald Reagan partly because of his sincerity and humility. He is a GREAT communicator. I haven''t felt this excited about a political candidate for a LONG time.

[mcvet]

Be it this Religious Nazi or any of the rest of the Republican''s, they don''t have an orginal thought between them. They all spew the same tired garbage, Cut Spending... they never do and cut taxes... they borrow our future, stay the course... who''s Bin Laden, Build MORE weapons... create more hate to aid the terrorist.

[fibonacci_]

LMAO Nancy, LMAO.

[ih2005]

Huckabee is ONE ( http://snipr.com/fthuckabeeonirs ) with the FairTax grassroots movement ( http://snipr.com/becomeamember ). While many - like Romney, and others, who are invested in the current income tax system - seek to demagog ( http://snipurl.com/taxpanelrebutted ) the well-researched FairTax plan, its acceptance in the professional / academic community ( http://snipurl.com/econsopenletter ) continues to grow. Renown economist Laurence Kotlikoff believes that failure to enact the FairTax - choosing instead to try to "flatten" what he deems to be a non-flattenable income tax system - will eventuate into an irrevocable economic meltdown ( http://snipurl.com/meltdowninprogress ) because of the hidden aspects of the current system that make political accountability impossible.

Romney''s recent WEAK response to FairTax questioning on %u201CThis Week with Geo. Stephanopoulos ( http://snipurl.com/stephanopoulosdebate )%u201D drew a sharp contrast between Huckabee and all other presidential front-runners who will not embrace it. Huckabee understands that what''s wrong with the income tax can''t be fixed with "a tap of the hammer, nor a twist of the screwdriver." That his opponents cling to the destructive Tax Code, the IRS, preserving political power of granting tax favors at continued cost to - and misery of - American families, invigorates his campaign''s raison d''etre.

[giantrobot2]

Mitt Romney is the Republican Howard Dean!!! Read all about it!

After the Iowa debate yesterday Mitt Romney stopped in Marion, Iowa to give a speech at Linn-Mar High School. He said the following:

%u201CAnd I%u2019m convinced the world will remember as well because you%u2019re going to do something which people don%u2019t expect, which is give me a victory,%u201D Romney said. %u201CAnd then I%u2019m going to New Hampshire where I%u2019m pretty solidly in the lead in New Hampshire, and I%u2019m gonna be in Nevada, and I%u2019m gonna win Nevada, and I%u2019m gonna be in Wyoming, and I%u2019ll win that one and Michigan. And we%u2019re gonna do pretty *** well%u2014that%u2019s at least what I plan."

.... Yahhh Hip Ha!!!

Everybody is reading all about this now. Mitt Romney is Howard Dean all over again. The media and the Democrats will now play this over and over and over and over.

This is what brought down Howard Dean and now is bringing down Mitt Romney. Republicans don''''t need another Howard Dean.

.... Yahhh Hip Ha!!!

[memerider]

Huckabee is strongly supported by pro-second amendment rights republicans who also are evangelicals--and even Catholics and other Protestants who don''t realize the Southern Baptists believe they are lost souls, doomed for all eternity.

Pro-2A republicans who are less religious or atheists (lots of would-be libertarians fall into this category) have no candidates at all since the religious right has hijacked the republican party and only extreme social conservatives are running (including Ron Paul, the pseudo-libertarian who is really just another religious fundamentalist).

Huck might win just because people don''t want to be disarmed just when Islamists, international drug cartels, and the like are pouring into the U.S.--and we see how deadly declaring "gun-free zones" has proven to be.

I can''t stand Huck myself, but I might vote for him if it''s between him and an extreme socialist like Obama who wants to slash 2nd amendment rights of law-abiding citizens.

[iamanamerica]

Thank you billy_2727...it''s nice to see that some people care to look at what''s behind a "Christian Leader" sign.

[iamanamerica]

"Huckabee is a virtuous man; that is why his poll numbers went up."

No, he isn''t. Being a minister doesn''t make you virtuous. By your logic, only virtuous people have high poll numbers, so both Clinton and Obama are quite virtuous...right?

Huckster is a politician who has a long history of using political office for personal gain....but he''s a minister...so he must be virtuous!!!!

[billy_2727]

I''ll be honest, I have not read much about Huckabee''s record in Arkansas, and I do not doubt that he had good approval ratings. He portrays to live by the bible, and says he''s the only one with a theologian degree. But one of the alarming issues that I have with him, is that he says he doesn''t know much about the lds(mormons), even with his theologian degree, and then slips in a derogatory question about the LDS faith. I for one would like to know whether Huckabee knew the answer to his own question before he asked it. This will tell a lot about his integrity as a Christian. And if he really didn''t know the answer (even though southern baptist preach this in there sermons), then maybe he should explain reasoning for asking. Huckabee''s whole strategy seems to be building on the uncertainty of Romney''s religion. If you want to know more about Romney''s religion maybe you should talk to his church.

[iamanamerica]

Huckabee''s surge comes at the expense of my constitutional rights. His entire campaign is about his religion. On everything else he basically sucks, except perhaps abortion.

Our founding fathers put very few civil rights into the Constitution itself, they added most as the Bill of Rights, an ammendment. The right to run for political office without a religious test was written into the original constitution.

Huckster is running as a "Christian Leader". He goes to Salt Lake City to preach that we need to "reclaim America for Christ!". He claims God is making his poll numbers rise. He tells Romney he needs to explain whether Mormonism is a cult. He starts spewing anti-mormon talking points in high-profile interviews. Then while "apologizing", he claims to know nothing about Mormons...AND BOY DO THE EVANGELICALS COME RUNNING!!!!

[denn034]

Here''s hoping the Huckabee surge subsides or the Democrats will win for sure.

[tinhay]

"Huckabee leads the GOP pack among voters paying a lot of attention to the race. Among those paying just some attention, he''s third"

Huckabee resonates with America. People who follow him and have researched the candidates know who they like, and that''s Huckabee. I believe there has been a huge block of voters wanted to support Huckabee, but because the MSM and pundits said he couldn''t win, they were hesitant to "throw their vote away". Now, people realize that Huckabee does have national support, he is viable. He is the people''s candidate, and the Washington talk head''s don''t like it.

[oscar19861]

Huckabee is a virtuous man; that is why his poll numbers went up.

Others in the race are not as spiritually centered. Our souls knows the difference.

[samthetvcat]

A pollster who thinks the world revolves around polls - I guess that''s not surprising. I just don''t think his analysis is right. It''s not the poll it''s the person who''s driving the polls, and a lot of people caught sight of Huckabee in the debates. If one were to look at the polls and cross-reference Huckabee''s surge on the national level isn''t it more closely tied to the debate and not the Iowa surge? And isn''t the rise in Iowa partially concurrent with the national poll? Iowa is part of the nation after all . . .

[gkc99]

It''s surely time for a national primary when two little jerkwater states like IA and NH, and the fawning, suckyup media attention, have such control over what candidates the rest of us (95%) get to vote on.