When Revolutions Run Out Of Steam

The New Republic: Burma's Uprising Is Latest To Fall Victim To World's Short Attention Span

(The New Republic)  This column was written by Joshua Kurlantzick.

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Just three months ago, the world watched, transfixed, as thousands of Burmese monks marched through the streets of Rangoon. Their demands for change after decades of harsh military rule elicited almost universal sympathy and impassioned calls for solidarity. The United Nations hastily sent its special envoy into Burma. Both President Bush and the First Lady seemed personally affected - Laura Bush, who rarely steps out of her animatronic shell, publicly called on the Burmese junta to make way for democracy and announced that "people everywhere know about the regime's atrocities." Editorial columns and front pages of Western newspapers ran dramatic stories and vivid photos of the protests; one major Western broadcasting company after another called me to get a five-minute explanation of the Burma crisis.

Three months later, the protests already seem long ago. After making a few initial concessions to the international community, like allowing in a UN human rights investigator and permitting a government meeting with pro-democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, the Burmese junta has stood firm. In the weeks since the August and September protests, the military has scoured the country, rounding up demonstrators and shuttering monasteries. As during previous crackdowns, many monks have fled to Thailand, and the UN believes as many as 1,000 people remain in detention inside Burma from the Saffron protests. Despite meeting with Suu Kyi, the junta has declared that she will have no part in the launching of a new Burmese constitution.

No large-scale protests have erupted in Burma since September, and after initial rumors of a split in the junta, the military seems as united internally as ever. "The crackdown in Burma is far from over," Brad Adams, Asia director for Human Rights Watch, said recently. "Harsh repression continues, and the government is still lying about the extent of the deaths and detentions."

Yet after the immediate burst of interest, the world has moved on, just as it has after many other color revolutions. The Western media has once again relegated Burma to the back pages (if it reports on it at all); on Saturday, for example, The New York Times featured a thoughtful analysis of the Burmese crisis - but it ran on page A10. And on a political level, the UN has not imposed an arms embargo or financial sanctions on the Burmese regime. The Bush administration, though still clearly concerned about Burma, has had to turn its attention to other crises, like the even worse one in Pakistan.

China, the junta's most important patron, has continued to back Burma as well. Chinese officials clearly are worried about the junta's harsh tactics: Behind closed doors, China has prodded the Burmese to engage with Suu Kyi and to embrace economic reforms. Yet with few other nations applying real pressure on Burma, China will not step forward to push the regime.

The aftermath of the Burmese revolution fits into a much larger pattern of neglect. Burgeoning democracies, from Georgia to Lebanon, Ukraine to Kyrgyzstan, have triumphantly celebrated one color revolution after the next in recent years. Yet once the actual street protests die down, the West simply averts its gaze, or remains so enthralled by the initial protests that it ignores the challenges of post-revolution societies. And without continued foreign attention, the color revolutions rarely deliver upon their promises.

Sometimes, the protests initially succeed in replacing a dubious regime with seeming democrats, only to watch the new leaders adopt the habits of the old. Take Georgia's current president Mikheil Saakashvili. President Bush heaped praise on the Georgian leader directly following the Rose revolution. When the two leaders met in 2005, Bush proclaimed, "What I find on [President Saakashvili's] mind is very refreshing. He loves democracy and loves freedom ... The Rose revolution was a powerful moment in modern history. It not only inspired the people of Georgia; it inspired others around the world that want to live in a free society."

But three years after officially taking office, and with little international oversight, Saakashvili has governed in an increasingly autocratic manner. This fall, he used riot police to disperse protests by opposition activists, leaving hundreds injured. Then, as protests swelled, he declared a state of emergency that allowed him to stifle local media; opposition leaders were left with little choice but to flee. In response, the White House has pushed Saakashvili to hold new elections, but has not taken tougher measures, like threatening to cut off assistance to Georgia.

Other times, the color revolutions fizzle. In Lebanon, the jubiliant protests disintegrated into a new round of communal bloodletting and political stasis. In Kyrgyzstan, political in-fighting and corruption have spoiled the Tulip Revolution, and President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has turned authoritarian. And in all these cases, Western democracies have paid little attention.

But the international community can't disappear right after the initial color revolution; the end of regular news coverage is often just the beginning of the real challenge. Outside pressure helped force the Burmese junta's initial concessions, but Burma's neighbors have since turned silent. As the Times notes, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), the most important regional grouping, held a meeting in November at which the UN special envoy to Burma was supposed to speak. Asean canceled his appearance, though, after Burma asked it to do so - a telling sign of fealty. But if major Asean members were to defy the current government and publicly keep up pressure on the junta, or even enact financial sanctions, it would force Burma's hand and let the regime know the world is still watching. Continued pressure also might compel China, the most important influence in Burma, to take a stronger stand.

Similar strategies could work in other color revolution nations, too. Just by demonstrating to Georgia that it's taking an interest, the administration helped prod Saakashvili to hold new elections. Proving that there are watchful eyes monitoring Georgia - or Kyrgyzstan, or Ukraine - keeps would-be authoritarians on their toes. Even better, setting real benchmarks, which would be linked to assistance, would provide roadmaps for these new democracies and help ensure the color doesn't fade.

[libsluvsuvs]

Posted by FeelFree1 at 10:22 PM : Dec 11, 2007
+ report abuse


************

I want to hear your take on Citgo. (I bet you would conjure up a lot of bullsh*t and voodoo to excuse this one and why......BECAUSE ITS YOUR BUDDY CHAVEZ''S COMPANY.)

[libsluvsuvs]

Posted by FeelFree1 at 10:22 PM : Dec 11, 2007
+ report abuse


*******************

you know why the crusade had lost steam..my dear terrorist friend..IS BECAUSE THE CRUSADE WAS TAKEN OVER BY ''WHINE-A-LOT BUT DO-NOTHING'' morons like you. where is your liberal masses now????????where is your precious UN??where is your precious EU????where is your precious Amnesty International????? ALL A BUNCH OF INCOMPETENT MORONS WHO PRETTY CONDITIONED THE WORLD TO JUST BEND OVER AND TAKE IT UP THE ARSE.

your version of liberalism/socialism/TERRORISM is a poison.

[sharncedar]

Hope you Bush an dClinton fans are enjoying the new Chinese world. This si how they operate - absolutely violent, absolutely ruthless, without regard for God or man. Burma is a Chinese puppet regime, hope you lovers of Henry Paulson and the other traitors who created the monster of china are feeling good about yourselves. Great, Goldman sachs made more money today, perhaps another $500 billion, so what if millions upon millions are condemned to live in fear and darkness. Henry Paulson made some mooney on his China "investments", isn''t that what matters? Isn''t what matters that some obscene worthless scum without human dignity made another $10 billion so he can buy a fancy apartment in New York?

The source and the cause of all these problems is the american filth, the dirty, disgusting filth, we call our rich and priviledged. Until they disappear into the Hell they deservem there can never be hope or freedom on this earth. Everything will be a lie, a grim lie backed with Chinese-style violence with the only intention to increase profits for the lazy and the indolent and the evil.

[canadiant2]

Google "weekly standard" + impotence
Hmmm, I think they have an ongoing theme at TWS, maybe they should see a urologist?

[feelfree1]

We know that Chevron has aided the junta in Burma, and we see them here with their "human energy" campaign.

By "human energy", is Chevron talking about the energy that it expends to torture, murder, and rape people, in their efforts to maximize profits?:

"Chevron is one of the largest foreign investors in Burma and is the only remaining major U.S. corporation with a significant presence there. In 2005, Chevron bought the company Unocal weeks after the latter settled a lawsuit accusing it of assisting the Burmese military junta in the torture, murder and rape of villagers during construction of a pipeline."

www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/10/12/1454252

We also know that Chevron not only profited prior to the latest invasion of Iraq, by giving kickbacks to Saddam in exchange for business favors-

%u201CChevron settles Iraq kickback charges%u201D

%u201CChevron Corp. has agreed to pay $30 million (U.S.) to settle charges it made illegal kickbacks to Iraq for oil purchased in 2001 and 2002 under the United Nation''s oil-for-food program.%u201D

www.thestar.com/printArticle/276611

Should they be allowed to continue doing business in Burma, or anywhere else for that matter?

[kraziquban]

The only reason Bush acted concerned was to shut activists up. He knows as do all the other leaders in western nations doing just as little, that in time the Junta will beat the Burmese people down again. And we will all forget....

Too bad the far east bug hasn''t gotten up Bush''s butt the way the middle east has. Maybe its genetic?

[ianlou]

The great thing about a democracy with term limits is: you can eventually vote the bums out or wait for their term to expire.

A revolution in America is called an Election Day Landslide.

2008, 2008, 2008........

[random_radar]

Conditions in Burma are difficult, but fortunately nothing like that will ever happen in America. America is immune to despotism and repression. America is and always will be the land of the free. America can do no wrong. We are the good guys, and don''t you forget it!

Because if you do, there is a torture chamber waiting for you with nice men from agencies with three letter abbreviations who will help you see things their way.