In New Hampshire, GOP Race Is Fluid

Shifting Bases Of Support For Five Candidates Make Primary's Outcome Hard To Guess

(AP)  New Hampshire has become the hot spot for action in the Republican presidential race, just like Iowa is for the Democrats.

GOP candidates Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are battling hard for supremacy in New Hampshire, while Mike Huckabee is moving up in polls and long-shot Ron Paul is maintaining a core of support in the final month before the nation's leadoff primary.

That could lead to a fractured outcome.

"I think all five of those candidates will end up in double digits on the Republican side," predicted Fergus Cullen, the state GOP chairman, underscoring the high level of activity in New Hampshire and the scrambled nature of the contest.

Public surveys show Romney with a sizable lead while McCain, the Arizona senator, and Giuliani, the former New York mayor, are in a tight race behind him. But private polling indicates McCain has solidified his second-place standing as Giuliani has slipped. Huckabee is gaining support, fueled in part by his ascent in Iowa, while Paul, the Texas congressman with a libertarian bent, trails.

Until recently, Republican strategists said Romney appeared to be in the strongest position to win the nomination.

The former Massachusetts governor spent more than a year laying the groundwork for back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. He led in Iowa for months but now is battling the come-from-behind Huckabee in a two-way contest growing more fierce by the day. Polls show a dead-heat, and Romney's campaign is about to begin running negative ads against Huckabee.

Fred Thompson, the former Tennessee senator, also is trying to compete in Iowa; he's not a factor in New Hampshire.

Should Romney win Iowa's caucuses on Jan. 3, he'd come into New Hampshire in a commanding position and with a strong ground-game; Huckabee's candidacy could be over. But were Romney to lose in Iowa, GOP strategists say he would be wounded but still able to compete in next-up New Hampshire on Jan. 8 because of the foundation he's laid.

If Huckabee triumphs in Iowa, these strategists say, it's unclear whether he can leverage that success into financial and organizational strength in the narrow window between Iowa and New Hampshire. He has grass-roots support in New Hampshire but not much of an organization.

McCain and Giuliani, who aren't campaigning full-bore in Iowa, will be waiting in New Hampshire.

Having defeated George W. Bush in the state in 2000, McCain has maintained a base of hard-core backers and built upon the organization left behind from his first race. He has pinned his second bid on the state and, this time, secured the coveted endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

Sensing opportunity, Giuliani stepped up his activity in New Hampshire a month ago with more frequent visits and heavy TV advertising. Despite such efforts, his support recently slipped. He also lacks the mature organizational structure of Romney and McCain.

Adding to the uncertainty of the GOP contest here is the outcome of the Democratic race in Iowa, which could influence New Hampshire's independents; they can vote in either party's primary. In 2000, they flocked to the Republican matchup and helped McCain defeat Bush, but they might be more attracted to the Democratic contest this time around given its celebrity field.

In Iowa, Democratic front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton is in a high-stakes three-way contest with Barack Obama and John Edwards.

Should Clinton win the caucuses, analysts argue, independents will be less likely to participate in the Democratic primary because they will conclude she's unstoppable given her double-digit lead in New Hampshire. That could help McCain or Giuliani, both of whom attract moderates and independents.

But if Obama, whose message of optimism appeals to independents, beats Clinton in the first contest, the swing voting group could swarm to that high-octane race. Romney, who has geared his campaign toward the conservative GOP base, could benefit from that scenario.

All that adds up to a wildly unpredictable New Hampshire race.

"It's like a bowl of Jell-O that hasn't settled and firmed up yet," said David Carney, a GOP strategist in New Hampshire who isn't openly backing a candidate. "There's still a lot of tire-kicking going on."

Indeed, about one in 10 likely GOP primary voters say they are undecided, while many more say they still could change their minds before the Jan. 8 primary.

Karen Foulke, 46, and Joanne Richards, 55, two Republicans from East Hampstead, are among them. Both are leaning toward Giuliani but caution they aren't yet certain. "I just really valued his leadership in terms of 9/11," Foulke said. Added Richards: "He grasped the situation and came through. He impressed me totally."

Independents also are torn.

"You know, you've got a lot of good people," said Peter Wibber, 64, a Nashua independent who voted for Bush in 2000. He had high praise for Romney and McCain but fretted: "I'm still on the fence."

[krisd999-2009]

If you believe "never saw a tax he didn''t like" Huckabee is going to work to eliminate the income tax, you probably believe in Santa Clause too. I bet he can make you believe that too and then some. The majority of believers are easily misled by the "christian" hypocrites spouting their piety, just what Jesus warned about. Something else Jesus called "religious leaders" is white-washed graves. Ron Paul''s record shows that he is a humble man,keeps his religion in the closet as Jesus wanted, is not subject to party pressure and will do everything to restore limited govt to America. To stop the corruption and looting of the people you must cut off the money from taxes AND inflation.

[trinitron01]

Our country will lead only with someone like RON PAUL in office. We need Ron Paul, he is extremely intelligent, down to earth, and not a religious basis agenda like preacher huck. Go Ron Paul! RonPaul2008.com visit and learn about the real leader for freedom in America. What a amazing man.

[giantrobot2]

For those of you that like to critize and take easy cheap shots at other people instead of looking for positive things to bring the nation up, you should first take the log out of your eye before trying to take the stick out of others.

Americans want to experience positive change, they do not want to listen to mean spirited comments that only create division in America not unity. Those who critize are only running on ice, spining their wheels like a locomotive, but not going anywhere. It''''s time to hang up those old shoes of critism, and change to the positive, optimistic shoes that will bring happiness to all Americans.

Mike Huckabee is authentic, trustworthy, caring and humble. That''''s why his poll numbers are skyrocketing up at supersonic speeds. THE HUCKABOOM!!!!!!

NASA we have lift off, "One small step for Mike Huckabee and one giant leap for America."

[irvhomer]

Part II - Response to GiantRobot2 Huckabee %u201Cfacts%u201D

%u201C6. He will lead up not just hard right or hard left.
Excellent communicator, will bring parties together.%u201D
* Unfortunately his leadership is less than desirable. Suggesting we %u201Cisolate%u201D AIDS patients and then encouraging the release of convicted rapist Wayne DuMond.

%u201C7. He will lead with principles rather than money.
He cares everybody not just those on Wall Street.%u201D
* If his track record tells us anything, he%u2019ll more likely lead with spending your money.

%u201C9. He will carry out his goals, not talk about them.
Lost 110 pounds, kept it off, ran 4 Marathons-26.2m%u201D
* It%u2019s great he can carry out goals that benefit him. Too bad he can%u2019t stay on track with fiscal goals to benefit the people he represents. Huckabee received an "F/D" for fiscal policy of governors from the CATO institute, while most Democratic governors received higher grades.

%u201C10. He knows the American people is the real boss.
As Governor, his picture frame only shows citizens.%u201D
* An act. He%u2019s also selling himself as the Christian%u2019s candidate which is downright condescending. Are Christians to ignore his track record of increased spending just because they share the same religious beliefs?

[irvhomer]

Response to GiantRobot2 Huckabee %u201Cfacts%u201D

%u201C1. He will Eliminate the IRS:%u201D
* Huckabee stole this theme from Ron Paul. The only difference is Huckabee plans to replace the IRS with a %u201CSales Tax Bureau%u201D whereas Ron Paul would actually reduce the federal government.

%u201C2. He will drastically reduce Gas prices:
Switch to alternative fuels, changing supply/demand.%u201D
* Sounds like more wasteful federal subsidies. I don%u2019t see how this will save people money. The gas I purchase now has 10% ethanol and the only significant reduction is a decrease in gas mileage.

%u201C4. He will reduce threat of terrorism.
New fuels cause middle east gov. crack down on them.%u201D
* Huckabee%u2019s Energy Independence policy is 50% rhetoric and 50% letting lobbyists pull his strings. Ethanol will cost us more and bring us neither security nor oil independence. However, he will make the NCGA happy.

%u201C5. He will reduce rising Health care costs.
New programs that prevent diseases, not just fix them.%u201D
* AKA more inefficient government programs

[sgtrds]

Posted by GiantRobot2 at 10:18 PM : Dec 10, 2007


11. Is a lunatic religious nut that believes in creationism and is not much better then any other religious nut in the Middle-East.

[sgtrds]

"In New Hampshire, GOP Race Is Fluid"

Oh please don''t use "GOP" and "fluid" in the same sentence! All it does is give one a nightmare image of Larry Craig, Ted Haggard and Mark Foley in an airport bathroom together. UGH!

[ronpaul09]

WHATS UP WITH PRIMARY QUESTION WITH KATIE COURIC NOT GIVING PAUL ANY AIR TIME YET? I KNOW SHE INTERVIEWED HIM.IF U NOTICE EVEN IN ALL THE WIDE SHOTS OF THE CANDIDATES HES CUT OFF AND NOT EVEN A SCROLLING PICTURE OF HIS FACE IN THE OPENING CREDITS.ALL OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES EXCEPT DR.PAUL.IS IT COLD IN HERE OR AM I JUST BEING PARANOID?

[cfin5]

"Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes ... but when a long train of abuses and usurpations ... evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security." - Thomas Jefferson in the Declaration of Independence

[macusweil]

Mike Huckabee facts:

* Raised taxes in his home state 21 time
* Paroled a convicted rapist for political reasons who went on to murder after his release
* Does not believe in evolution
* Says he''s right pro-life but supports prisoner executions as opposed to life without parole
* Fourteen ethics complaints as governor
* Signed a sales tax hike in 1996
* He supported an internet sales tax in 2001.
* He publicly opposed the repeal of a sales tax on groceries and medicine in 2002.
* He signed bills raising taxes on gasoline (1999), cigarettes (2003), and a $5.25 per day bed-tax on private nursing home patients in 2001.
* He proposed another sales take hike in 2002
* He opposed a congressional measure to ban internet taxes
* In 2004, he allowed a 17% sales tax increase to become law.
* Created a so called %u2018charitable%u2019 organization - Action America - so he could funnel his speaking fees through the organization and avoid disclosure requirements

Vote for Mike and you get all these great benefits!!

[macusweil]

"Live free or die"

Come on New Hampshire, we''re counting on you!

Congressman Ron Paul is the only guy in the GOP race who is going to save us from the ever shrinking Bush dollar, end the war and defend our individual liberties.

The rest are all like Bush, they will use the White House as a power grab to reward their own special interest and force their minority values on the rest of us. When that happens then we all loose except for a small few.

The treasury has been looted by the Republican party these past seven years and we have nothing to show for it, zippo! It time to restore our government to for the people by the people instead of for special interests by special interests. I''m voting for Congressman Ron Paul in the Feb 5th NYS GOP primary.

[giantrobot2]

Mike Huckabee facts:

1. He will Eliminate the IRS:
This means you will receive 100% of your paycheck.

2. He will drastically reduce Gas prices:
Switch to alternative fuels, changing supply/demand.

3. He will reduce global warming.
Switch to alternative fuels, no carbon dioxides.

4. He will reduce threat of terrorism.
New fuels cause middle east gov. crack down on them.

5. He will reduce rising Health care costs.
New programs that prevent diseases, not just fix them.

6. He will lead up not just hard right or hard left.
Excellent communicator, will bring parties together.

7. He will lead with principles rather than money.
He cares everybody not just those on Wall Street.

8. He will give Hope to America and enthusiasm.
He plays bass guitar in a band, dynamic personality.

9. He will carry out his goals, not talk about them.
Lost 110 pounds, kept it off, ran 4 Marathons-26.2m

10. He knows the American people is the real boss.
As Governor, his picture frame only shows citizens.

Vote for Mike Huckabee, otherwise you will not be able to enjoy these benefits

Since the other candidates don''''t have anything to say on what they can do for America, they take the easy road and resort to taking cheap shots at Mike. Don%u2019t fall into their trap any longer with negative attacks, let''''s show the critics and the naysayers that Americans have pride and we are ready to elect an honest, humble, trustworthy man for US President.

[cfin5]

Be careful New Hampshire, look at the candidates "VOTING RECORD", not whether or not they carry a Bible under their arm (remember Jimmy Carter?). Please read the Constitution of the United States and our Bill of Rights, not to mention your own states Constitution. Then make your pick for the Presidency. Our country can''t afford anymore treachery against our national sovereignty from any ideological angle. Vote "AMERICAN"! Vote for Ron Paul, student of the "fairest" Constitution in the world! GO USA!!!