Youth Vote Hard To Turn Out, Hard To Poll

CBS' Kathy Frankovic: Voters Under 30 Tend To Stay Away From Polls And Pollsters

(CBS)  By Kathy Frankovic, CBS News director of surveys

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Every presidential election year, the youth vote is supposed to make a difference -- and many candidates claim they will be the beneficiary.

Before the 1988 Iowa caucuses, I got a phone call from a George H. W. Bush campaign operative who told me his campaign had canvassed Iowa high schools for young supporters, and our pre-caucus poll had underrepresented this great source of Bush support by not interviewing 17-year-olds. (Iowa allows anyone who will be 18 in time for the general election to participate in a caucus.) But Bush finished third in the 1988 caucuses, and there was no discernible increase in the number of votes cast by 17- or 18-year-olds.

Even in Iowa, the state that again starts the electoral process January 3, younger adults are much less involved in politics than their elders. For example, only 76 percent of Iowans under 30 are active voters, according to the state’s registered voter list. Ninety-two percent of those 65 and older are. Getting younger people to the polls is a challenge, because fewer young people cross that first threshold - registering to vote - despite efforts like Rock the Vote, Choose or Lose and Vote or Die.

In an October CBS News/New York Times Poll, just 58 percent of Americans under 30 said they were registered to vote. Ninety-three percent of those over 65 were. Thirty is a dividing line, it seems. Among those 30 to 44, 87 percent reported being registered. (Self-reported registration rates in polls are usually higher than they really are. Some of that disparity is because many of the unregistered are not reached by household polling -- like non-English speakers, and people who live in institutions -- and some of it is because saying you are registered is socially desirable.)

However, two-thirds of the under-30s in our last poll admitted they hadn’t voted in 2004, though more than two-thirds of them had been old enough to vote in 2004. Only 17 percent were sure that they would participate in a primary in 2008.

This group says it is more liberal than older Americans. For example, many Americans, 45 percent, wanted U.S. troops out of Iraq within the year in our poll, but even more of those under 30 did. And in addition to wanting candidates to talk about the war in Iraq, under-30s also wanted to hear about education -- something of less concern to older Americans. One in three young adults registered to vote said the environment will be extremely important in determining their 2008 vote. Of course, that’s if they vote.

If they do vote this year, they could make a difference. In Iowa, under-30s favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. If they come to the caucuses, they could make Obama the winner. But although Howard Dean might have been ahead among young Iowa adults in polls a month before the 2004 caucuses, he did not get the largest share of their votes that January.

The difficulties campaigns have in encouraging young people to vote are similar to the difficulties pollsters have in reaching them. Under-30 respondents are pretty important: Because they are hard to reach, their responses are likely to get a higher weight than the answers of older respondents. In the recent CBS News/New York Times Iowa Poll, it took extra effort to find people under the age of 30. We had to dial their phone numbers more times to complete the interviews. Young people are just less likely to be at home.

Why is this? First of all the under 30 group is less settled and more mobile than the older population. Seventy percent of them in our national polls say they have never been married. Marriage and the attachments that go with it turn out to be excellent predictors of whether someone votes.

But the second reason is the one that gets talked about more: Maybe under-30s aren’t reached in phone polls because they only use cell phones, not the land line numbers that pollsters typically sample. Although the young are more likely to use cell phones exclusively, they are not alone. Cell phone-only voters (6 percent in the 2004 network exit polls) were younger. Forty-eight percent of them were under the age of 30. But a narrow majority was older than that.

Today’s telephone pollsters are interviewing some people on cell phones, though they might not know it. Cell phone numbers sometimes are included in the clusters of phone numbers that pollsters regularly sample, either because they are part of phone number clusters that contain listed landline phones, or because people have ported their regular phones to their cell phones. At the end of all our questionnaires, CBS News asks respondents whether we have reached them on their cell phone, and about 1 percent -- sometimes even more -- say we have. These people are usually not much younger than those interviewed on land lines.

But these hard to find young voters matter-- and pollsters and politicians will continue to hunt for them!

[adra_]

Homespunlady,

You are dissallusioned and do not address the current problems of the vote, our country, or yourself. I will have to side with SGTRDS. Your comments are subversive and inexcusible to anyone that wishes for the prosperity of our country. The fudamental beauty of freedom of speech is presenting not enforcing, which is frequent in the media''s propaganda. You have fallen victim to this, and should readdress your standpoint. Your subversive comments could very well lead to a maire antoinette situation, not the children''s comments - or vote, which should be free from those who undermine our nation. If its even yours........

[runningralph]

homespunlady,
Who is manipulating voting procedures and how? Is requiring registration manipulation? There are valid reasons for not having registration at the polls. It would be expensive, time consuming,and prone to abuse. I don''t know of any states that do registration at the polls but I assume those that do have some built in restrictions to prevent fraud. And I don''t see any advantage to poll registration. there''s no reason that voters can''t be troubled to go through proper registration and waiting procedures as long as it''s done the same way for all citizens. The reason for residency requirements is that each ward, precinct, county etc has different candidates running. It would be ridiculous to have every politician running anywhere to be listed at every poll. Polls have to be specific to their own precinct or ward. And as far as having to look for the place to vote- everybody has to do the same thing. What''s the problem?

[sgtrds]

To condemn a group that has been trained to be a certain way and NOT condemn those that have taught them such foolishness is to NOT see the REAL problem.

It''''s no better than teaching a dog to indiscriminately attack and bite and then when he does what he''''s been trained to do - blame the dog for being "bad" and NOT blame those that trained the dog to act that way.

Posted by homespunlady at 05:30 PM : Dec 05, 2007

You seem to be thinking that I''m disagreeing with you about the education system and I am not. I am simply making the point that no matter HOW they got this way, the truth is that the vast majority of today''s youth in America are air heads who do not care about or even understand politics. I am not disagreeing with you about it not being their fault that they''ve turned out this bad, just that they are indeed this bad.

[homespunlady]

If this nation truly wanted concerned involved citizens that take on Civic duty, there would be MUCH more encouragement and Much less diversion and discouragement.

It''s more CONVENIENT and much EASIER to control a stupid, obedient population than an independent knowledgeable one. To paraphrase George - it''s much easier being a Dictator.

I blame those that make policy and manipulate the media for encouraging such shortsightedness.

It''s NOT ONLY the young addicted to diversionary entertainment and dangerous substances.

The difference is we''re expecting our young to spontaneously come up with knowledge they ARE NOT receiving.

Those of us that remember receiving civics education have much less of a reason to excuse our lack of action.

[homespunlady]

Posted by SgtRDS at 05:20 PM : Dec 05, 2007

To condemn a group that has been trained to be a certain way and NOT condemn those that have taught them such foolishness is to NOT see the REAL problem.

It''s no better than teaching a dog to indiscriminately attack and bite and then when he does what he''s been trained to do - blame the dog for being "bad" and NOT blame those that trained the dog to act that way.

[sgtrds]

The Kids I''''ve helped are very politically active - even those that cannot yet vote. They can canvas with others, call, hold placards etc.

Posted by homespunlady at 05:16 PM : Dec 05, 2007

I agree with most of your comment on this issue, but it still doesn''t change the fact that the kids you describe are the exception and not the rule. The bulk of kids these days are drunk on IPODS, laptops, MTV, Paris Hilton scandals and dancing with the stars to the point where most of the probably couldn''t even tell you the names of most of the candidates, let alone where any of them stand on any issues. The bulk of young people today are giggling airheads. Not all mind you, but most.

[homespunlady]

Teaching our children how to be afraid, give up all rights for safety and subservience to authority is NO way to maintain a Republic or a Democracy.

At least the 70''s "hippies" were NOT cowering, helpless fools and BTW school violence was MUCH higher back then. They also had a subject called CIVICS back then and if lucky - concerned, involved parents.
Both Ron Paul and Lou Dobbs have large followings of disillusioned but informed young people.

[homespunlady]

Posted by SgtRDS at 04:40 PM : Dec 05, 2007

If you grow up in a society that glorifies cannibalism, you are very likely to BE a cannibal.
The responsibility rests with those of us that are aware and willing to change things to get off our backsides and MENTOR our emerging youth. Left on their own as they have been just leads to a "Lord of the Flies" situation.

The Kids I''ve helped are very politically active - even those that cannot yet vote. They can canvas with others, call, hold placards etc.

The difference is the people that SHOULD know better (the voting adults) being TOO LAZY to teach and encourage them in political involvement.

There are groups, classes and camps for some of this but they are all too few and often narrowly focused.

On the Liberal side is Wellstone and on the conservative side there are many more religious based ones. Both sides realize they are training future leaders.

Most of the public schools have abdicated such training in favor of near prison search, seizure and lock-down experience.

What does THAT teach our young?

[sgtrds]

The young people I know are as diverse as their elders. Most are sincere and trying to learn the art of living which apparently is sorely missing from our educational system.

I am very glad I chose to home-school my youngest. At 17 she juggles 3 jobs, volunteers with several charities and most of her friends are in Military service and also well under that "magic age" of 30.

Posted by homespunlady at 04:04 PM : Dec 05, 2007

Then I believe that they are the exception to the rule. They maybe trying to find their way in life, but 40 years ago that also included a healthy interest in the politics of their nation. Today''s young people, without the fear of war hanging over them, turn a blind eye to how the current crooks in the White House are jeopardizing their future by running us into a massive debt with a war of choice that they and their children will have to pay off.

[homespunlady]

Posted by tcoleman12 at 04:04 PM : Dec 05, 2007

Pretty obvious you are clueless and have NO kids.
As far as fighting "terrorists" here; this nation is facing a MUCH BIGGER threat from the collapsing economy and the poverty and upheaval that can come from such misguided policies that are consolidating wealth and dividing our country into barricaded haves and desperate have nots.
Ask Marie Antoinette about what happens as a result of such stupidity.

[homespunlady]

Posted by tcoleman12 at 03:04 PM : Dec 05, 2007

Who''s creating and marketing those "reality shows" which such a HUGE percentage of the public (much larger than the percentage of youth) watch?

I can''t see blaming the youth of today for their parents using TV as a full-time babysitter so those irresponsible "parents" could do something else other than RAISE and TEACH their children to be responsible citizens.

[tcoleman12]

How about this for a plan, SGT...Let the youth vote show up and vote in the Democrat, as it seems you would prefer. Then everyone would have to take up arms to fight the enemy here again due to the "Head-in-the-sand" Democrats that would be in charge trying to figure out why the terrorists dislike us rather than keeping us safe.

[homespunlady]

Posted by SgtRDS at 03:03 PM : Dec 05, 2007

Please don''t fall for the "spoiled brat" stereotype and apply it to All those under 30. A lot of that is as much pure bunk as the stereotypes of the past of happy singing slaves, devoted fat mothers and cruel snooty rich people.
If there is one thing I''ve learned it''s that those who use stereotypes often do so in order to justify discrimination.

The young people I know are as diverse as their elders. Most are sincere and trying to learn the art of living which apparently is sorely missing from our educational system.

I am very glad I chose to home-school my youngest. At 17 she juggles 3 jobs, volunteers with several charities and most of her friends are in Military service and also well under that "magic age" of 30.

If they can DIE for their country, do you really want to deny them any more rights than someone that wasted decades as a wealthy drunk (see George''s bio)?

[tcoleman12]

Many of you are way over-thinking the "Youth Voter" of today. All you have to do is get on the computer or turn on the TV to find out what today''s youth is watching and doing to find out why they don''t turn out to vote. Many of you are giving them way too much credit for being responsible young adults that don''t want to lose a job...and many are.
However, if this election were a Reality Show, you would see a turnout like never before.
Rock-the-Vote, Vote-or-Die and others can get all these "youth" to register (because everyone else is). But it just doesn''t get them out on Tuesday to vote.

[sgtrds]

Want to get the youth vote out? Start a military draft. Once many of these spoiled brats have to start worrying about being sent off to die for nothing in a Bush war, rather then how they can download more music on to their IPODs, they''ll actually realize that the lunatics in the White House right now need to be paid attention to.

[homespunlady]

Posted by tiddsanbeer at 01:57 PM : Dec 05, 2007

Your post and your name contradict each other. If appearance were the basis I know Plenty of Over 30''s that would be banned also - you included.
It isn''t appearance that maintains a Democracy - it''s active participation and a well-educated electorate.

If certain political and industrial "leaders" of our nation choose to manipulate that electorate by encouraging "dumbing down" our public schooled children then who really is to blame and what kind of FOOLS would fall for such a manipulative agenda?

I see a generation of GREAT potential WASTED in order to consolidate and CONTROL power and wealth based on the unbelievably FOOLISH reasons of old men afraid of losing their iron grip on their empires.

[homespunlady]

For the "under 30" voter to participate the disconnect with their reality and the current disparate, confusing, registration boondoggle that varies from state to state has to be fixed and issues that they feel are relevant and deeply affect them have to be addressed.

Some states allow registering at the polls, some do not. In my state, if you don''t register several months before and ACTIVELY SEARCH for the location you''re allowed to vote in you''re NOT likely to just stumble across it.

Voting during the day on a Tuesday just insures those that want to KEEP their "entry level" JOBS get to CHOOSE between PAYING TO VOTE by losing pay or even their job and voting for an issue or person that to them is in a different social reality then their struggle to survive everyday modern life.

For most of the poor and young kids just starting out the RISKS of voting often outweigh the supposed benefits.

Discrimination through MANIPULATION of the voting procedures has been a long time tradition here in the US.
It used to be used to prevent women and non-whites from being fairly represented.

Now it''s a subtle trick used to discriminate in a "socially acceptable" new way - based on SOCIAL CLASS which is both a throwback to medieval thinking and a way to control a portion of the population that has very little power to control their world - for now.

If the us economy goes south and the dollar collapses I suspect those people will find a way to upset that discriminatory applecart.

[cmw3]

Unfortunately, this article perpetuates a number of unsubstantiated assumptions about the youth vote, using polls as opposed to actual data from the previous election cycles that do show an increased presence youth voter bloc. For more info (that provides data, links, and research):

http://blog.rockthevote.com/2007/12/for-media-young-voter-myths-and-facts.html

[cmw3]

Unfortunately, this article perpetuates a number of unsubstantiated assumptions about the youth vote, using polls as opposed to actual data from the previous election cycles that do show an increased presence youth voter bloc. For more info (that provides data, links, and research):

http://blog.rockthevote.com/2007/12/for-media-young-voter-myths-and-facts.html

[johnpmorris]

I''m a Huckabee supporter, I admit. But I really think that Mike Huckabee has the potential to take on celebrity status in the country, even among the under-30''s. He''s skyrocketing in the polls, and is now FIRST IN THE NATION!!(rasmussen daily tracking poll). People like Mike. You can see this poll and others at:

"Give Hope Another Chance"
www.mike-huckabee.blogspot.com