Iran Not Going Nuclear? You're Kidding Me

National Review Online: Evidence For Intelligence Estimate's Claims Is Thin

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Michael Ledeen.

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Those lively minds over at the (always capitalized) Intelligence Community have given us yet another of their entertaining Estimates, this time about the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. You know, the one the Iranians stoutly deny exists, the one they refuse to let inspectors examine, and the one they sometimes acknowledge when on or another of their leaders has a slip of the tongue. They now favor us with slightly more than two pages of “Key Judgments” on this important subject.

Two years ago, the IC - the same IC that claimed to have detailed information about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction, that famously missed the boat on al-Qaeda, and that has had at least two spy networks inside Iran rolled up in the past couple of decades - told us it was all but certain that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.”

Yesterday it reversed field. It said that in fact, two years before the 2005 report, the Iranians had “halted its (covert) nuclear weapons program,” and that the “halt lasted at least several years” and (although the IC is less certain about this) is still in force. There is some disagreement within the IC on this point, however. The Energy Department and the National Intelligence Council apparently agree that something was stopped, but have at least some doubt as to whether the “halt” encompasses Iran’s “entire nuclear weapons program.”

In short, some IC analysts think there is no covert nuclear-arms program at all, while others aren’t so sure. In a moment of candor at a briefing Monday, these gentlemen stressed that Iran has a “latent goal” to develop a nuclear weapon, that “gaps remain” in our information, and that Iran is “probably the hardest intelligence target there is.” And they warn us, in one of their Key Judgments, that the odds are that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Parse this: “only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons - and such a decision is inherently reversible.” This seems to imply that the “halt” was a tactical move, not a strategic decision.

You certainly can’t criticize them for failing to cover their derrieres.

Nonetheless, despite the “gaps in intelligence,” and despite the Islamic Republic’s well-earned reputation for being one of the most deceptive on earth, the IC goes right ahead and predicts that Iran is quite a long way away from being able to field nukes. The earliest possible - albeit “highly unlikely” - date at which Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but it’s more reasonable to look to the 2010-2015 timeframe. Interestingly enough, this pretty much corresponds to their 2005 forecast, when they said that if Iran’s technical progress increased, they might have enough weapons-grade uranium “by the end of this decade.” And the IC stresses that Iran has “the scientific, technical and industrial capacity...to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.

All this deals with the Iranians’ ability to enrich uranium on their own. Of course, they could have obtained some from abroad, and the IC admits that they cannot rule out the possibility that Iran has obtained an actual weapon “or enough fissile material for a weapon.”

More derriere protection. And there is still more. After all, the Iranians excel at deception, and we’ve been fooled about the nuclear programs of countries from the Soviet Union to India and Pakistan. Maybe we’ve been fooled again. The IC doesn’t think so, although, in its usual “on the one hand yes, on the other hand maybe” routine, the officials responded to the question in yesterday’s press briefing by reassuring the press that “We gamed more than half a dozen such scenarios,” ...But the analysts reached the conclusion such a scenario was “plausible but not likely.”

Tom Joscelyn has wisely warned us to be skeptical about anything that comes from the IC, and he rightly asks about the sources for the new conclusion. There is no point guessing about this, and without such knowledge it’s very difficult to assess the quality of the analysis. But whatever the spooks think they know has to be evaluated in the light of common sense, the views of other countries, and the history of nuclear proliferation. WMD programs are easier to hide than one imagines. After the First Gulf War we were astonished to discover how far Saddam’s Iraq had advanced, for example. To claim we “know” that Iran no longer has a covert nuclear-weapons program is quite a statement. (Remember how we used to say that you can’t prove a negative? The IC seems to know better.)

Moreover, there’s the old smell test. We went from zero to bomb in four years leading up to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, at a time when nobody even knew if the thing was doable. On the IC’s account, the Iranians have been at this since “at least the late 1980’s.” (I actually think it didn’t get into gear until 1991, but let’s not quibble.) During that time, almost everything was for sale (and Iran has lots of money), A.Q. Khan was running his bazaar, Soviet nuclear physicists were hired by Tehran, and the Iranians themselves are very smart. Is it likely, that Iran hasn’t been able to build nukes in two decades? No way.

If this NIE is true, the evidence would have to be awfully good. And evidence of that quality has been in famously short supply. These are the same guys who have been telling us for years that Sunnis and Shiites can’t work together, when they should have known that Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat’s al Fatah (Sunnis).

Color me an unbeliever.

[samsel3]

Nothing has changed on Iran. The administrations interest in Iran & nukes is a smoke screen for their real agenda. Their true interests are Cheney''s energy policy.Condi rice is a former board member of chevron oil and mouthpiece for the administrations energy policy. Part of that policy is the The Caspian Sea pipeline which will go through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,Pakistan,India & Nepal.It will be cheaper to construct if they can go through part of Iran, but regime change is necessary first. The Caspian sea area holds one third of the world''s oil and south asian oil markets are their target market. This pipeline was also the reason for the Afghanistan invasion. Cheney''s energy policy is the root of all these middle east wars, a federal court judge sealed all documents associated with it for the administration, and the national media are not allowed to discuss or comment on it. More troops are needed in Afghasnistan to protect the contractors building the pipeline. Iran stands in the way of total control of global oil with direct sales of oil to china and is now in the crosshairs. China said there would be dire consequences if the US interfered with there direct oil contracts with Iran. Both parties in the Congress should be very concerned with China''s growing war machine and need for oil. They are the real threat & the administration doesn''t care they are in control!!! All that matters to them is BIG OIL and their corporate stock portfolios

[logicanada]

From the NRO website media kit...

National Review and NRO are America''s most widely read and influential magazine and website for Republican and Conservative news,....are benchmark vehicles for reaching Republicans who shape opinion on the important issues, and both reach the ... financial elite ...as well as engaged activists all across America.

Shape opinion??
Propaganda machine???
Look it up for yourself.
Decide for yourself.

[underdogus]

THE US deploys its economic, political and military power globally, limiting the force of international law, shrinking the capacity of international organizations, and reducing the possibility of multilateral action and democratic self-governance in an increasingly interdependent world. We ask also what limits will this empire encounter, can it sustain "full spectrum dominance" for the forceable future or will it provoke such broad opposition that its era of hegemony and prosperity comes swiftly and decisively to a close?

[clestes-2009]

Well, naturally the NRO would think the NIE off base! It refutes their long held excuse for their dream of attacking Iran!!

It is not wrong, nor is it thin. It is exactly what the IAEA is saying. I after the backlash from the Iraq intelligence disaster, for which Geo Tenet took the fall, after being given the medal of freedom and a big fat retirement check, they are not about to f*ck it up again.

Iran has had NO nuclear weapon lab for 4 years! AND they aren''t likely to get the ability for years, if that is what they want.

Enough years that there is time for diplomacy. There is absolutely no reason the rush to bombing or even more sanctions.

Under the NNP they are completely within their rights to pursue nuclear technology for energy use.

Get used to it, people. Iran will have nuclear technology and there won''t be a way to stop it either.

[samsel3]

Nothing has changed on Iran. The administrations interest in Iran & nukes is a smoke screen for their real agenda. Their true interests are Cheney''s energy policy. Part of that policy is the The Caspian Sea pipeline which will go through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,Pakistan,India & Nepal.It will be cheaper to construct if they can go through part of Iran, but regime change is necessary first. The Caspian sea area holds one third of the world''s oil and south asian oil markets are their target market. This pipeline was also the reason for the Afghanistan invasion. Cheney''s energy policy is the root of all these middle east wars, a federal court judge sealed all documents associated with it for the administration, and the national media are not allowed to discuss or comment on it. More troops are needed in Afghasnistan to protect the contractors building the pipeline. Iran stands in the way of total control of global oil with direct sales of oil to china and is now in the crosshairs. China said there would be dire consequences if the US interfered with there direct oil contracts with Iran. Both parties in the Congress should be very concerned with China''s growing war machine and need for oil. They are the real threat & the administration doesn''t care they are in control!!! All that matters to them is BIG OIL and their corporate stock portfolios. Greed & gain as they worship the god of money.

[imnho]

The author of this article would liketo start a war in Iran. He is upset that the DNI has knocked the supports out from under that plan.

He is very big on starting wars, but does not want his family or himself going in harms way. He has been a key player in efforts to provoke a war wit Iran. I don''t think he will stop until his goal is reached.

[quatrops]

And paranoia ran rampant in the land !

A common factor in most of the 5, 6 pages of comments (both left and right) seems to be FEAR. I suppose that''s to be expected, since fear (as usual) is what underlies the NRO article.

For a long time I blamed Bush/Cheney for the climate of fear and paranoia, but I''ve realized of late that just because they have a yellow streak a mile wide is too thin an excuse.

I suppose the MSM is partially to blame . . . they seem to bottom-feed on scare stories. But that still doesn''t explain why nearly everyone has bought into it, since the media has ALWAYS done that.

All of us need to start asking ourselves whether or not we need to feel so threatened by someone else''s world-view just because it''s a touch different than our own . . . or even a lot different.

Things have a way of working out. The incompetentcies and lies of the current administration will be answered in November 2008. In a way, it''s too bad that the Republican party is going down to a major defeat, but they DID allow themselves to be hijacked by the neo-cons, and they are going to pay a HEAVY price!

[petesis]

Check this guy out on Wikepedia. I wouldn''t believe a word he says.

[pepperp1]

....dont kid yourself, we know this Administration lies about anything to peruse power for their Party, thus you have to assess anything Bush Puppet President Fringe Cheerleader does through that prism, there is absolutely no way I accept that he has chosen to all of a sudden become a Statesman and do his job.


So whats he up to some political stunt, some probabilities,
Rudy has the support of Neo Cons and Bush Condi do not now support the Neo Cons Agenda now or Rudy so he could be purging that untalented baggage off the GOP boat albeit 7 years to late they served their purpose,

or he knew Reid was sitting on the NIE and wanted it out now a year before the election as it would be out informally or formally later showing again he is a fraud and his cohorts are real frauds either by choice or lack of talent.
Either way
we did not have the capability to attack Iran it was a red meat look tough chest thumping we are better the Dem pansy on National Security events for the Repug Candidates to manipulate their base and the American people would not have stood for it I believe they would march on Washington and the White House had he tried.



Here ya go this rag out with the Bath water

[logicanada]

Does anyone remember NRO or Weekly Srandard ever breaking a true news story ? or do they just shill for the right?

[logicanada]

MR Ledeen is obviously more and better informed than all 12 branches of intelligence and all the generals who are against a conflict with Iran.
He should saddle up to prove his concern.
More Jewish review online garbage.

[mcvet]

I agree with the heading on this one,, as if Iran would stop its desire to control the world... their President believes that they are going to bring on the 12 IMAM or something don''''t they so why would they stop...




Posted by Gaye5 at 07:05 AM : Dec 05, 2007
+ report abuse

ROFLMAO So in your small and very Nazi Mind, Iran couldn''t have stopped their program and OUR intelligence people are lying to us! Makes perfect sense... ROFLMAO If you think, even for a Minute, that Darth would have allowed that report to see the light of day if there was even a change... even the SMALLEST chance that it was wrong, you know little of the Gestapo or it''s leader!! By the way do YOU think the head of the NSA told Bush about this report and Bush didn''t ask him what was in it? ROFLMAO What am I saying?? Of course you do... then you''ll argue with the NEXT breath that Bush is Competent. What kind of Competent leader gets an Intel report and does NOT ask what''s in it?? The line for the Kool Aid starts to your right!! Sieg Heil Bush!!!

[mcvet]

What is it with these fascist? Instead of asking why in the WORLD their President LIED to us about the report and when he knew about it, they attack the Intel people. ROFLMAO I''ve come to the conclusion that these Nuts are nothing but defenders of Incompetence and Arrogance and they could care less about this nation. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[rayuk-2009]

NRO will always disagree with logic and science. We can say the same for the entire Conservative population. Fear and insecurity is inherent in their narrow personalities. They live for those self inflicted pains. Counter intutive as that may appear.

[Ed0719]

I think the entire rest of the world would be better served, and a lot safer, if the entire middle east, including Israel, was turned into a solid sheet of glass from the heat of nuclear bombs. We''d be rid of all that trouble and we can drill for oil through the glass. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[mitywhity]

They will not stop - they believe themselves to be divinely ordained to carry out the elimination of Israel. They can''t fight for schitt, so they have to use nukes.

[brianbwb-2009]

National Review Online: Evidence For Intelligence Estimate''s Claims Is Thin

International Brian Online: Evidence For Intelligence About Iraq Was Outright Lies,
But NRQ Had No Problem With Sending Our Children To Die Based On Those Lies.

[gaye5]

I agree with the heading on this one,, as if Iran would stop its desire to control the world... their President believes that they are going to bring on the 12 IMAM or something don''t they so why would they stop...

[bluestardad]

MORE DUEL PASSPORT HOLDING ISRAELI NEOCONS TRYING TO HYPE AMERICA INTO SENDING MORE MONEY AND BLOOD INTO THE SINK HOLE OF THE MIDDLE EAST!

IT IS TIME TO HUNT DOWN ALL AIPAC AND PNAC MEMBERS AND DEPORT THEM BACK TO ISRAEL BEFORE THEY START WORLD WAR 3.

[jcr103]

The headline to this article should really read: "The Bush administration misrepresented the facts to suit their preconceived, ideologically motivated group think to the detriment of the general welfare of the country? You''re kidding me."