Iran Not Going Nuclear? You're Kidding Me

National Review Online: Evidence For Intelligence Estimate's Claims Is Thin

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Michael Ledeen.

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Those lively minds over at the (always capitalized) Intelligence Community have given us yet another of their entertaining Estimates, this time about the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. You know, the one the Iranians stoutly deny exists, the one they refuse to let inspectors examine, and the one they sometimes acknowledge when on or another of their leaders has a slip of the tongue. They now favor us with slightly more than two pages of “Key Judgments” on this important subject.

Two years ago, the IC - the same IC that claimed to have detailed information about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction, that famously missed the boat on al-Qaeda, and that has had at least two spy networks inside Iran rolled up in the past couple of decades - told us it was all but certain that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.”

Yesterday it reversed field. It said that in fact, two years before the 2005 report, the Iranians had “halted its (covert) nuclear weapons program,” and that the “halt lasted at least several years” and (although the IC is less certain about this) is still in force. There is some disagreement within the IC on this point, however. The Energy Department and the National Intelligence Council apparently agree that something was stopped, but have at least some doubt as to whether the “halt” encompasses Iran’s “entire nuclear weapons program.”

In short, some IC analysts think there is no covert nuclear-arms program at all, while others aren’t so sure. In a moment of candor at a briefing Monday, these gentlemen stressed that Iran has a “latent goal” to develop a nuclear weapon, that “gaps remain” in our information, and that Iran is “probably the hardest intelligence target there is.” And they warn us, in one of their Key Judgments, that the odds are that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Parse this: “only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons - and such a decision is inherently reversible.” This seems to imply that the “halt” was a tactical move, not a strategic decision.

You certainly can’t criticize them for failing to cover their derrieres.

Nonetheless, despite the “gaps in intelligence,” and despite the Islamic Republic’s well-earned reputation for being one of the most deceptive on earth, the IC goes right ahead and predicts that Iran is quite a long way away from being able to field nukes. The earliest possible - albeit “highly unlikely” - date at which Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but it’s more reasonable to look to the 2010-2015 timeframe. Interestingly enough, this pretty much corresponds to their 2005 forecast, when they said that if Iran’s technical progress increased, they might have enough weapons-grade uranium “by the end of this decade.” And the IC stresses that Iran has “the scientific, technical and industrial capacity...to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.

All this deals with the Iranians’ ability to enrich uranium on their own. Of course, they could have obtained some from abroad, and the IC admits that they cannot rule out the possibility that Iran has obtained an actual weapon “or enough fissile material for a weapon.”

More derriere protection. And there is still more. After all, the Iranians excel at deception, and we’ve been fooled about the nuclear programs of countries from the Soviet Union to India and Pakistan. Maybe we’ve been fooled again. The IC doesn’t think so, although, in its usual “on the one hand yes, on the other hand maybe” routine, the officials responded to the question in yesterday’s press briefing by reassuring the press that “We gamed more than half a dozen such scenarios,” ...But the analysts reached the conclusion such a scenario was “plausible but not likely.”

Tom Joscelyn has wisely warned us to be skeptical about anything that comes from the IC, and he rightly asks about the sources for the new conclusion. There is no point guessing about this, and without such knowledge it’s very difficult to assess the quality of the analysis. But whatever the spooks think they know has to be evaluated in the light of common sense, the views of other countries, and the history of nuclear proliferation. WMD programs are easier to hide than one imagines. After the First Gulf War we were astonished to discover how far Saddam’s Iraq had advanced, for example. To claim we “know” that Iran no longer has a covert nuclear-weapons program is quite a statement. (Remember how we used to say that you can’t prove a negative? The IC seems to know better.)

Moreover, there’s the old smell test. We went from zero to bomb in four years leading up to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, at a time when nobody even knew if the thing was doable. On the IC’s account, the Iranians have been at this since “at least the late 1980’s.” (I actually think it didn’t get into gear until 1991, but let’s not quibble.) During that time, almost everything was for sale (and Iran has lots of money), A.Q. Khan was running his bazaar, Soviet nuclear physicists were hired by Tehran, and the Iranians themselves are very smart. Is it likely, that Iran hasn’t been able to build nukes in two decades? No way.

If this NIE is true, the evidence would have to be awfully good. And evidence of that quality has been in famously short supply. These are the same guys who have been telling us for years that Sunnis and Shiites can’t work together, when they should have known that Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat’s al Fatah (Sunnis).

Color me an unbeliever.

[quatermass2]

The author is upset because this greatly decreases the probability of a unilateral first strike against Iran. Poor baby, that take the starch out of your shorts? Can''t have (yet another) unwinnable, pointless war? Awwwww.........

[gkc99]

"Color me an unbeliever.
By Michael Ledeen"


NO, you''re a "believer"--in the Bushit brand of cyanide-flavored Koolaid.

[trillion1]

bush should be impeached on mental health grounds. He isn''t capable of telling the truth and has almost no grasp of reality.

[Razzl]

It would seem the conclusion to be drawn is that it doesn''t matter to NRO what the evidence is or where it comes from, because they''ve already determined on the basis of their ideological biases that Iran is bad and therefore must be wanting to develop a nuclear weapon which they must want to use on us and therefore we have to attack them. For those of us who make up the electorate that Bush and the neocons refuse to acknowledge as the basis of this country''s political power, that''s a pretty weak argument for putting all our loved ones at risk of horrible death in the world war which an attack on Iran will initiate. I and the vast majority of my fellow citizens am willing to trust our military to keep an eye on the ground, to trust our diplomats to talk to the right people the right way, and am unwilling to ever allow Bush or Cheney or any of their underlings to make the decision to use military force again during the remainder of their term without explicit authorization from Congress, as the Constitution requires...

[gkc99]

The question isn''t whether Iran wants nuclear weapons, it''s whether Iran is taking concrete steps to make nuclear weapons. Any state threatened by the USA or other nuke powers would want nuclear weapons unless they like being kicked around.

Example"

US to Iran: "We gonna kick your boodies."

US to North Korea: "oh please Mr. Dictator sir, let us send you some more cases of Scotch whiskey and caviar while your starve another 100,000 of your citizens."

Get real!

[tyjohn47]

OK, so NOW....now...NRO DOESNT believe the National Intelligence Estimate?! Hmmm.

[tyjohn47]

Actually Quartermass2, I think they''re po''d about the NIE at NRO because they are also stockholders in Halliburton, Blackwater, etc. and really wanted to see their investments pay off when we hit Iran next.

[bareemperor]

9/II = CIA false flag op?
Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act = Constitution Burned?

Proposed SB 1959 = Institutionalized hatred and fear?

C''mon, babyboomers - you stopped these same tyrants before, it''s time to act once more.
Remove the traitors before 9/ I I I

[feelfree1]

Related:

"In 1974, Michael Ledeen moved to Rome where he studied Italian (what else?)fascism..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Ledeen

Ledeen is also thought to have been involved in the Niger "yellow-cake" fraud that was used in part to justify the illegal war of aggression against Iraq.

www.useless-knowledge.com/1234/july/article328.html

Heil, to Mr. Ledeen. A deceptive traitor and fascist apologist of the highest order.

Many top WWII Nazis were sentenced and hanged at Nuremberg. What will be Mr. Ledeen''s fate?

[shingles1]

Michael Ledeen is:

1) a self declared Iran expert who has never actually been to Iran and doesn''t speak Persian.
2) was involved in the whole Iran-Contra deal, meaning that he traitorously sent arms to our enemy (since, according to him Iran has been at war with the US since 1979).
3) his "expert" sources led him to famously pronounce people as being dead when they weren''t. TWICE. First with bin Laden and later with Iran''s Supreme Leader.
4) he has been linked to the people who forged the Niger Yellowcake documents.
5) way too many other instances of stupidity/duplicity to mention.

Since Ledeen''s track record is so ridiculously and comically awful, a pretty good rule of thumb when listening to his unhinged rantings is "the truth is the opposite of whatever Ledeen thinks is the truth".

[eggy1620]

So the NRO is now faulting the intelligence agencies because they followed the Vice Presidents direct orders to lie to the President and his cabinet. If the NIE said that Iran has not halted its program, the NRO would be saying, %u201CLet%u2019s give the NIE the benefit of belief. The intelligence agencies have undoubtedly turned themselves around and are now trustworthy.%u201D

[bluestardad]

THIS IS THE SAME MAGAZINE THAT SAID IF YOU DONT AGREE WITH BUSH YOU DONT BELIEVE IN GOD!

[tejasdemo]

I dont even need to read this "article" to be assured it is nothing more than a complete piece of fantasy based on no facts at all.

Why does CBS continue to give these guys a space to post this nonsense ?

[feelfree1]

tejasdemo,

Re: "I dont even need to read this "article"..."

You''re not alone!

[tylenol6]

Bush LIED again????????????? Your kidding me!!!!!!!!!!!
Bush is DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!!

[shingles1]

Ledeen states in the last line:

...Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat%u2019s al Fatah (Sunnis).

The problem is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard wasn''t formed until May of 1979. Last I checked "1979" is not the "early 1970''s". Poor poor Ledeen, it''s so hard to keep your facts straight when you''re dissembling (lying).

[feelfree1]

Since Mr. Ledeen is an expert on Italian fascism, perhaps he can summarize for us all, how that turned out?

[imnho]

The author of this article wants to have a war with Iran real bad. He does not want to go to war himself or have his family put at risk.The national intellgence estimate just knocked the supports from under the necon desire to start a third war. This must anger them to no end. They were counting on this war to feed there ego''s and bak accounts and now its not going to happen.

[runningralph]

Mao had a philosophy of "fight,fight,talk,talk" and "political power comes out of the barrel of a gun". Iran is in the "talk,talk" phase now, but when they see they can gain, they will go to the "fight,fight" phase. They will keep their hand hidden, but never lose sight of their goal.

[samsel3]

Nothing has changed on Iran. The administrations interest in Iran & nukes is a smoke screen for their real agenda. Their true interests are Cheney''''''''''''''''s energy policy. Part of that policy is the The Caspian Sea pipeline which goes through Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,Pakistan,India & Nepal.It will be cheaper to construct if they can go through part of Iran, but regime change is necessary first. The Caspian sea area holds one third of the world''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''s oil and south asian oil markets are their target market. This pipeline was also the reason for the Afghanistan invasion. Cheney''''''''''''''''s energy policy is the root of all these middle east wars, a federal court judge sealed all documents associated with it for the administration, and the national media are not allowed to discuss or comment on it. More troops are needed in Afghasnistan to protect the contractors building the pipeline. Iran stands in the way and is now in the crosshairs. China said there would be dire consequences if the US interfered with there direct oil contracts with Iran. Both parties in the Congress should be very concerned with China''''''''''''''''s growing war machine and need for oil. They are the real threat & the administration doesn''''''''''''''''t care they are in control!!! All that matters to them is BIG OIL and their corporate stock portfolios. Greed & gain as they worship the god of money.

[denn034]

Is the intelligence wrong? One can see it like that as Ledeen does or it can be viewed as the Iranians changing their focus from making nuclear plants to enriching uranium. I''m going with changing focus over the report being wrong.

[andor3]

DOES anyone read these NRO chuckle/yawn pieces anymore? I just read the headlines, laugh, then skip to the comments to see which of my favorite neocon goons are making fools of themselves.

[bobgee_1999]

Yeah, why should you believe the intelligence community over a reporter who works for an openly biased paper?

[skibum678]

We seem to be forgetting here our own involvement in overthrowing Iran''s elected government in the 70s and installing the Shah. We''ve already forgotten Iran''s offers or aid after 9/11 (which they had nothing to do with). Most inportantly our discussions of nuclear weapons in the middle east keep leaving out Israel''s 100+ nuclear weapons. Ignorance of these facts could lead to very serious foreign policy mistakes.

Yes, I do believe that our foreign policy could get even worse. I know that''s hard for some of us to imagine.

[wogerwabbit]

NRO talking their treasonous trash again. One day we''re going to have to hunt these people down and exterminate them for the good of the country.

[knyghtwolf]

There is therapy available for these people that live in the shadow realms of fringes of reality, its called snap therapy where you place a rubber band on your wrist and every time you feel that creeping paranoia coming over you, you snap the rubber band three times and repeat to yourself that there is NO PLACE LIKE REALITY three times. After you are done, verify your surroundings and call a friend to come help you get home. We are here for you and your mental health.

[ubrew12]

NRO: "Iran Not Going Nuclear? You''re Kidding Me"

Seems you''ve been kidding me.
And not just about Iran.

[kennedy7955]

The USA has proven that it cannot run the world, police the world, lead by example or even keep its own house in order. Its time we backed away from the table and went to a mirror for a hard long look, it is ugly. It is time to clean up our own act and leave the world to fend for itself.

[cyberus-2009]

Ok .. so when they say Iraq ... err Iran *is* going nuclear then they are accurate .. when they say not nuclear they are inaccurate ... hmmmm ... selective fact finding at its best.

[b0ludo]

Israeli intelligence thinks they are working on the bomb, but our geniuses, several thousands of miles away, don''t. They are not trying to make a bomb, but they are continuing to enrich Uranium, I guess for clean and green nuclear power plants? For those of you who are willing to go outside of the boundaries of our media, here is something from a couple of hours ago: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546805188&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull.

[feelfree1]

Re: "Israeli intelligence thinks they are working on the bomb..."

Israeli "intelligence" enjoys about as much credibility as Michael Ledeen, which is less than none.

[cdfoxtrot]

Just wondering. If the report had said that Iran was currently developing nuclear weapons, would Michael Ledeen and others like him (e.g. Joe Looser-man) be trying to cast doubt on it? Or would they be quoting it verbatim, as "evidence" that had to be acted on as a matter of urgency? I love the way the extreme right are now willing to attack the intelligence community now that they (the intelligence crowd) seem to have re-discovered integrity and impartiality.

[cdfoxtrot]

Israeli intelligence thinks they are working on the bomb, Blah, Blah, Blah.... For those of you who are willing to go outside of the boundaries of our media, here is something from a couple of hours ago: http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?c
id=1195546805188&pagename=JPost%2FJPArti
cle%2FShowFull.

Posted by B0ludo

I hardly think the Jerusalem Post could, by any stretch of the imagination, be considered a credible or trustworthy source on Iran, the Palestinian issue, or anything else that might interest us here in the US.

[kansas1946]

NRO and their line up will not be happy until we are actively involved in combat in every country in the middle east, world war III is started, everything is a desolate wasteland glowing green, and they are all down in their bunkers with George Bush wondering about the half life of heavy elements, since none of them paid attention in science class, only Bible class.

[roger3815]

Too bad cons weren''t this skeptical in 2003.

[jcr103]

The headline to this article should really read: "The Bush administration misrepresented the facts to suit their preconceived, ideologically motivated group think to the detriment of the general welfare of the country? You''re kidding me."

[bluestardad]

MORE DUEL PASSPORT HOLDING ISRAELI NEOCONS TRYING TO HYPE AMERICA INTO SENDING MORE MONEY AND BLOOD INTO THE SINK HOLE OF THE MIDDLE EAST!

IT IS TIME TO HUNT DOWN ALL AIPAC AND PNAC MEMBERS AND DEPORT THEM BACK TO ISRAEL BEFORE THEY START WORLD WAR 3.

[gaye5]

I agree with the heading on this one,, as if Iran would stop its desire to control the world... their President believes that they are going to bring on the 12 IMAM or something don''t they so why would they stop...

[brianbwb-2009]

National Review Online: Evidence For Intelligence Estimate''s Claims Is Thin

International Brian Online: Evidence For Intelligence About Iraq Was Outright Lies,
But NRQ Had No Problem With Sending Our Children To Die Based On Those Lies.

[mitywhity]

They will not stop - they believe themselves to be divinely ordained to carry out the elimination of Israel. They can''t fight for schitt, so they have to use nukes.

[Ed0719]

I think the entire rest of the world would be better served, and a lot safer, if the entire middle east, including Israel, was turned into a solid sheet of glass from the heat of nuclear bombs. We''d be rid of all that trouble and we can drill for oil through the glass. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[rayuk-2009]

NRO will always disagree with logic and science. We can say the same for the entire Conservative population. Fear and insecurity is inherent in their narrow personalities. They live for those self inflicted pains. Counter intutive as that may appear.

[mcvet]

What is it with these fascist? Instead of asking why in the WORLD their President LIED to us about the report and when he knew about it, they attack the Intel people. ROFLMAO I''ve come to the conclusion that these Nuts are nothing but defenders of Incompetence and Arrogance and they could care less about this nation. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[mcvet]

I agree with the heading on this one,, as if Iran would stop its desire to control the world... their President believes that they are going to bring on the 12 IMAM or something don''''t they so why would they stop...




Posted by Gaye5 at 07:05 AM : Dec 05, 2007
+ report abuse

ROFLMAO So in your small and very Nazi Mind, Iran couldn''t have stopped their program and OUR intelligence people are lying to us! Makes perfect sense... ROFLMAO If you think, even for a Minute, that Darth would have allowed that report to see the light of day if there was even a change... even the SMALLEST chance that it was wrong, you know little of the Gestapo or it''s leader!! By the way do YOU think the head of the NSA told Bush about this report and Bush didn''t ask him what was in it? ROFLMAO What am I saying?? Of course you do... then you''ll argue with the NEXT breath that Bush is Competent. What kind of Competent leader gets an Intel report and does NOT ask what''s in it?? The line for the Kool Aid starts to your right!! Sieg Heil Bush!!!

[logicanada]

MR Ledeen is obviously more and better informed than all 12 branches of intelligence and all the generals who are against a conflict with Iran.
He should saddle up to prove his concern.
More Jewish review online garbage.

[logicanada]

Does anyone remember NRO or Weekly Srandard ever breaking a true news story ? or do they just shill for the right?

[pepperp1]

....dont kid yourself, we know this Administration lies about anything to peruse power for their Party, thus you have to assess anything Bush Puppet President Fringe Cheerleader does through that prism, there is absolutely no way I accept that he has chosen to all of a sudden become a Statesman and do his job.


So whats he up to some political stunt, some probabilities,
Rudy has the support of Neo Cons and Bush Condi do not now support the Neo Cons Agenda now or Rudy so he could be purging that untalented baggage off the GOP boat albeit 7 years to late they served their purpose,

or he knew Reid was sitting on the NIE and wanted it out now a year before the election as it would be out informally or formally later showing again he is a fraud and his cohorts are real frauds either by choice or lack of talent.
Either way
we did not have the capability to attack Iran it was a red meat look tough chest thumping we are better the Dem pansy on National Security events for the Repug Candidates to manipulate their base and the American people would not have stood for it I believe they would march on Washington and the White House had he tried.



Here ya go this rag out with the Bath water

[petesis]

Check this guy out on Wikepedia. I wouldn''t believe a word he says.

[quatrops]

And paranoia ran rampant in the land !

A common factor in most of the 5, 6 pages of comments (both left and right) seems to be FEAR. I suppose that''s to be expected, since fear (as usual) is what underlies the NRO article.

For a long time I blamed Bush/Cheney for the climate of fear and paranoia, but I''ve realized of late that just because they have a yellow streak a mile wide is too thin an excuse.

I suppose the MSM is partially to blame . . . they seem to bottom-feed on scare stories. But that still doesn''t explain why nearly everyone has bought into it, since the media has ALWAYS done that.

All of us need to start asking ourselves whether or not we need to feel so threatened by someone else''s world-view just because it''s a touch different than our own . . . or even a lot different.

Things have a way of working out. The incompetentcies and lies of the current administration will be answered in November 2008. In a way, it''s too bad that the Republican party is going down to a major defeat, but they DID allow themselves to be hijacked by the neo-cons, and they are going to pay a HEAVY price!

[imnho]

The author of this article would liketo start a war in Iran. He is upset that the DNI has knocked the supports out from under that plan.

He is very big on starting wars, but does not want his family or himself going in harms way. He has been a key player in efforts to provoke a war wit Iran. I don''t think he will stop until his goal is reached.