Dec. 4, 2007
Iran Not Going Nuclear? You're Kidding Me
National Review Online: Evidence For Intelligence Estimate's Claims Is Thin
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Eye To Eye: Richard Haass
"Only On The Web": Katie Couric speaks with Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, about a new U.S. intelligence report on Iran's nuclear weapons program.
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New Intel On Iran Nukes
U.S. security officials say Iran suspended their nuclear weapons program, despite previous reports to the contrary. As David Martin reports, Iran's diplomatic relations could improve.
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Iran Nuclear Chronology
Events in development of Iran's nuclear program since it first came to light.
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The U.S. And Iran
Key events in once friendly, now contentious relationship between Washington and Tehran.
Those lively minds over at the (always capitalized) Intelligence Community have given us yet another of their entertaining Estimates, this time about the Iranian nuclear-weapons program. You know, the one the Iranians stoutly deny exists, the one they refuse to let inspectors examine, and the one they sometimes acknowledge when on or another of their leaders has a slip of the tongue. They now favor us with slightly more than two pages of “Key Judgments” on this important subject.
Two years ago, the IC - the same IC that claimed to have detailed information about Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction, that famously missed the boat on al-Qaeda, and that has had at least two spy networks inside Iran rolled up in the past couple of decades - told us it was all but certain that Iran was “determined to develop nuclear weapons.”
Yesterday it reversed field. It said that in fact, two years before the 2005 report, the Iranians had “halted its (covert) nuclear weapons program,” and that the “halt lasted at least several years” and (although the IC is less certain about this) is still in force. There is some disagreement within the IC on this point, however. The Energy Department and the National Intelligence Council apparently agree that something was stopped, but have at least some doubt as to whether the “halt” encompasses Iran’s “entire nuclear weapons program.”
In short, some IC analysts think there is no covert nuclear-arms program at all, while others aren’t so sure. In a moment of candor at a briefing Monday, these gentlemen stressed that Iran has a “latent goal” to develop a nuclear weapon, that “gaps remain” in our information, and that Iran is “probably the hardest intelligence target there is.” And they warn us, in one of their Key Judgments, that the odds are that Iran will develop nuclear weapons. Parse this: “only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weapons - and such a decision is inherently reversible.” This seems to imply that the “halt” was a tactical move, not a strategic decision.
You certainly can’t criticize them for failing to cover their derrieres.
Nonetheless, despite the “gaps in intelligence,” and despite the Islamic Republic’s well-earned reputation for being one of the most deceptive on earth, the IC goes right ahead and predicts that Iran is quite a long way away from being able to field nukes. The earliest possible - albeit “highly unlikely” - date at which Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but it’s more reasonable to look to the 2010-2015 timeframe. Interestingly enough, this pretty much corresponds to their 2005 forecast, when they said that if Iran’s technical progress increased, they might have enough weapons-grade uranium “by the end of this decade.” And the IC stresses that Iran has “the scientific, technical and industrial capacity...to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so.
All this deals with the Iranians’ ability to enrich uranium on their own. Of course, they could have obtained some from abroad, and the IC admits that they cannot rule out the possibility that Iran has obtained an actual weapon “or enough fissile material for a weapon.”
More derriere protection. And there is still more. After all, the Iranians excel at deception, and we’ve been fooled about the nuclear programs of countries from the Soviet Union to India and Pakistan. Maybe we’ve been fooled again. The IC doesn’t think so, although, in its usual “on the one hand yes, on the other hand maybe” routine, the officials responded to the question in yesterday’s press briefing by reassuring the press that “We gamed more than half a dozen such scenarios,” ...But the analysts reached the conclusion such a scenario was “plausible but not likely.”
Tom Joscelyn has wisely warned us to be skeptical about anything that comes from the IC, and he rightly asks about the sources for the new conclusion. There is no point guessing about this, and without such knowledge it’s very difficult to assess the quality of the analysis. But whatever the spooks think they know has to be evaluated in the light of common sense, the views of other countries, and the history of nuclear proliferation. WMD programs are easier to hide than one imagines. After the First Gulf War we were astonished to discover how far Saddam’s Iraq had advanced, for example. To claim we “know” that Iran no longer has a covert nuclear-weapons program is quite a statement. (Remember how we used to say that you can’t prove a negative? The IC seems to know better.)
Moreover, there’s the old smell test. We went from zero to bomb in four years leading up to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, at a time when nobody even knew if the thing was doable. On the IC’s account, the Iranians have been at this since “at least the late 1980’s.” (I actually think it didn’t get into gear until 1991, but let’s not quibble.) During that time, almost everything was for sale (and Iran has lots of money), A.Q. Khan was running his bazaar, Soviet nuclear physicists were hired by Tehran, and the Iranians themselves are very smart. Is it likely, that Iran hasn’t been able to build nukes in two decades? No way.
If this NIE is true, the evidence would have to be awfully good. And evidence of that quality has been in famously short supply. These are the same guys who have been telling us for years that Sunnis and Shiites can’t work together, when they should have known that Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat’s al Fatah (Sunnis).
Color me an unbeliever.
By Michael Ledeen
Reprinted with permission from National Review Online.




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See all 55 CommentsBy Michael Ledeen"
NO, you''re a "believer"--in the Bushit brand of cyanide-flavored Koolaid.
Example"
US to Iran: "We gonna kick your boodies."
US to North Korea: "oh please Mr. Dictator sir, let us send you some more cases of Scotch whiskey and caviar while your starve another 100,000 of your citizens."
Get real!
Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act = Constitution Burned?
Proposed SB 1959 = Institutionalized hatred and fear?
C''mon, babyboomers - you stopped these same tyrants before, it''s time to act once more.
Remove the traitors before 9/ I I I
Related:
"In 1974, Michael Ledeen moved to Rome where he studied Italian (what else?)fascism..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Ledeen
Ledeen is also thought to have been involved in the Niger "yellow-cake" fraud that was used in part to justify the illegal war of aggression against Iraq.
www.useless-knowledge.com/1234/july/article328.html
Heil, to Mr. Ledeen. A deceptive traitor and fascist apologist of the highest order.
Many top WWII Nazis were sentenced and hanged at Nuremberg. What will be Mr. Ledeen''s fate?
1) a self declared Iran expert who has never actually been to Iran and doesn''t speak Persian.
2) was involved in the whole Iran-Contra deal, meaning that he traitorously sent arms to our enemy (since, according to him Iran has been at war with the US since 1979).
3) his "expert" sources led him to famously pronounce people as being dead when they weren''t. TWICE. First with bin Laden and later with Iran''s Supreme Leader.
4) he has been linked to the people who forged the Niger Yellowcake documents.
5) way too many other instances of stupidity/duplicity to mention.
Since Ledeen''s track record is so ridiculously and comically awful, a pretty good rule of thumb when listening to his unhinged rantings is "the truth is the opposite of whatever Ledeen thinks is the truth".
Why does CBS continue to give these guys a space to post this nonsense ?
tejasdemo,
Re: "I dont even need to read this "article"..."
You''re not alone!
Bush is DANGEROUS!!!!!!!!!!
...Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Shiites) were trained in the early 1970s by Yasser Arafat%u2019s al Fatah (Sunnis).
The problem is that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard wasn''t formed until May of 1979. Last I checked "1979" is not the "early 1970''s". Poor poor Ledeen, it''s so hard to keep your facts straight when you''re dissembling (lying).
Since Mr. Ledeen is an expert on Italian fascism, perhaps he can summarize for us all, how that turned out?
Yes, I do believe that our foreign policy could get even worse. I know that''s hard for some of us to imagine.
Seems you''ve been kidding me.
And not just about Iran.
Re: "Israeli intelligence thinks they are working on the bomb..."
Israeli "intelligence" enjoys about as much credibility as Michael Ledeen, which is less than none.
id=1195546805188&pagename=JPost%2FJPArti
cle%2FShowFull.
Posted by B0ludo
I hardly think the Jerusalem Post could, by any stretch of the imagination, be considered a credible or trustworthy source on Iran, the Palestinian issue, or anything else that might interest us here in the US.
IT IS TIME TO HUNT DOWN ALL AIPAC AND PNAC MEMBERS AND DEPORT THEM BACK TO ISRAEL BEFORE THEY START WORLD WAR 3.
International Brian Online: Evidence For Intelligence About Iraq Was Outright Lies,
But NRQ Had No Problem With Sending Our Children To Die Based On Those Lies.
Posted by Gaye5 at 07:05 AM : Dec 05, 2007
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ROFLMAO So in your small and very Nazi Mind, Iran couldn''t have stopped their program and OUR intelligence people are lying to us! Makes perfect sense... ROFLMAO If you think, even for a Minute, that Darth would have allowed that report to see the light of day if there was even a change... even the SMALLEST chance that it was wrong, you know little of the Gestapo or it''s leader!! By the way do YOU think the head of the NSA told Bush about this report and Bush didn''t ask him what was in it? ROFLMAO What am I saying?? Of course you do... then you''ll argue with the NEXT breath that Bush is Competent. What kind of Competent leader gets an Intel report and does NOT ask what''s in it?? The line for the Kool Aid starts to your right!! Sieg Heil Bush!!!
He should saddle up to prove his concern.
More Jewish review online garbage.
So whats he up to some political stunt, some probabilities,
Rudy has the support of Neo Cons and Bush Condi do not now support the Neo Cons Agenda now or Rudy so he could be purging that untalented baggage off the GOP boat albeit 7 years to late they served their purpose,
or he knew Reid was sitting on the NIE and wanted it out now a year before the election as it would be out informally or formally later showing again he is a fraud and his cohorts are real frauds either by choice or lack of talent.
Either way
we did not have the capability to attack Iran it was a red meat look tough chest thumping we are better the Dem pansy on National Security events for the Repug Candidates to manipulate their base and the American people would not have stood for it I believe they would march on Washington and the White House had he tried.
Here ya go this rag out with the Bath water
A common factor in most of the 5, 6 pages of comments (both left and right) seems to be FEAR. I suppose that''s to be expected, since fear (as usual) is what underlies the NRO article.
For a long time I blamed Bush/Cheney for the climate of fear and paranoia, but I''ve realized of late that just because they have a yellow streak a mile wide is too thin an excuse.
I suppose the MSM is partially to blame . . . they seem to bottom-feed on scare stories. But that still doesn''t explain why nearly everyone has bought into it, since the media has ALWAYS done that.
All of us need to start asking ourselves whether or not we need to feel so threatened by someone else''s world-view just because it''s a touch different than our own . . . or even a lot different.
Things have a way of working out. The incompetentcies and lies of the current administration will be answered in November 2008. In a way, it''s too bad that the Republican party is going down to a major defeat, but they DID allow themselves to be hijacked by the neo-cons, and they are going to pay a HEAVY price!
He is very big on starting wars, but does not want his family or himself going in harms way. He has been a key player in efforts to provoke a war wit Iran. I don''t think he will stop until his goal is reached.
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