U.S.: Iran Halted Nuke Program In 2003

But Officials Warn Tehran May Still Be Able To Develop Nuclear Weapons By 2010

(CBS/AP)  Iran halted its nuclear weapons development program in the fall of 2003 under international pressure but is continuing to enrich uranium, which means it may still be able to develop a weapon between 2010 and 2015, senior intelligence officials said Monday.

That finding, in a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, is a change from two years ago, when U.S. intelligence agencies believed Tehran was determined to develop a nuclear capability and was continuing its weapons development program. It suggests that Iran is susceptible to diplomatic pressure, the official said.

"Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005," states the unclassified summary of the secret report, released Monday.

Officials said the new findings suggest that diplomacy has been effective in containing Iran's nuclear ambitions.

"This is good news in that the U.S. policy coupled with the policies and actions of those who have been our partners appear to have had some success. Iran seems to have been pressured," one of the officials said. "Given that good news, we don't want to relax. We want to keep those pressures up."

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Read the NIE Estimate on Iran Nukes

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The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record due to the subject's sensitivity.

The bottom line of this new estimate is not that the world doesn't have to worry anymore about Iranian nuclear weapons, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin.

The real bottom line, Martin adds, is how little U.S. intelligence knows about such a critical issue -- finding out four years after the fact that a nuclear weapons program was halted. Iran, according to one senior intelligence officer, is the hardest intelligence target in the world.

The finding comes at a time of escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which President Bush has labeled part of an "axis of evil," along with Iraq and North Korea.

The administration views the report as confirming U.S. fears about Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, reports CBS News White House correspondent Mark Knoller.

In a statement, White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley said the finding "offers some positive news. It confirms that we were right to be worried about Iran seeking to develop nuclear weapons. It tells us that we have made progress in trying to ensure that this does not happen."

But, Hadley warned, the "intelligence also tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a very serious problem."

The halt to active weapons development is one of the key judgments of the latest NIE on Iran's nuclear program. National Intelligence Estimates represent the most authoritative written judgments of all 16 U.S. spy agencies.

Despite the suspension of its weapons program, Tehran may ultimately be difficult to dissuade from developing a nuclear bomb because Iran believes such a weapon would give it leverage to achieve its national security and foreign policy goals, the assessment concluded.

Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell decided last month that the key judgments of NIEs should as a rule not be declassified and released. The intelligence officials said an exception was made in this case because the last assessment of Iran's nuclear program in 2005 has been influential in public debate about U.S. policy toward Iran, and needed to be updated to reflect the latest findings.

To develop a nuclear weapon, Iran needs a warhead design, a certain amount of fissile material, and a delivery vehicle such as a missile. The intelligence agencies now believe Iran halted design work four years ago and as of mid-2007 had not restarted it.

But Iran is continuing to enrich uranium for its civilian nuclear reactors. That leaves open the possibility the fissile material could be diverted to covert nuclear sites to make enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb.

The amount of fissile material Iran has is closely linked to when it can produce a weapon. Even if the country went all out with present enrichment capability, it is unlikely to have enough until 2010 at the earliest, the officials said. The State Department's Intelligence and Research office believes the earliest likely time it would have enough highly enriched uranium would be 2013. But all agencies concede Iran may not have sufficient enriched uranium until after 2015.

Iran would not be capable of technically producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about 2015, the report states. But ultimately it has the technical and industrial capacity to build a bomb, "if it decides to do so," the intelligence agencies found.

This national intelligence estimate was originally due in the spring of 2007 but was delayed because the agencies wanted more confidence their findings were accurate, given the problems with a 2002 intelligence estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program. They also got a late influx of new data that caused changes in their findings.

"There was a very rigorous scrub using all the tradecraft available, using the lessons of 2002," a senior official said.

[terrorislam6]

"God Bless the USA" - Lee Greenwood

If tomorrow all the things were gone I''d worked for all my life,
And I had to start again with just my children and my wife.
I''d thank my lucky stars to be living here today,
''Cause the flag still stands for freedom, and they can''t take that away.

And I''m proud to be an American where at least I know I''m free.
And I won''t forget the men who died, who gave that right to me.
And I''d gladly stand up next to you and defend her still today.
''Cause there ain''t no doubt I love this land. God bless the U.S.A.

From the lakes of Minnesota, to the hills of Tennessee,
across the plains of Texas, from sea to shining sea,

From Detroit down to Houston and New York to LA,
Well, there''s pride in every American heart,
and it''s time to stand and say:

I''m proud to be an American where at least I know I''m free.
And I won''t forget the men who died, who gave that right to me.
And I''d gladly stand up next to you and defend her still today.
''Cause there ain''t no doubt I love this land. God bless the U.S.A.

http://www.americanheritage.org/song_information.html
http://www.americanheritage.org/index.html

"God Bless The USA," considered the modern national anthem of the common man. Lee writes, "The lyrics in this book began as a tiny point of light, but in my heart they burned as bright as the torch in Lady Liberty''s hand. They were written for all Americans, whether born here or not."

[grazinggoat]

The disclosure of this information about Irans nuclear program came at a crucial time, I believe the U.S. released it to prevent Israel from nuking Iran! Israel had Iran in its sights no doubt, it will be hard for Israel to justify attacking Iran now!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted by tbweb at 07:15 AM : Dec 04, 2007

-tbweb, this may well be the case. The move of Ahmadinejad to the Golf States Conference may be at the origin of this release of pressure on Iran. Tractations yielded an access-giving for UN inspectors to suspected locations in Iran, hence this report.

-Israel cannot put at stake its security neither. Iran is better armed and more harmful than before. Israel is at easy reach by Iran''s missiles, and the military technique of launching 10,000 missiles in 60 seconds is highly abnormal, unexpected...

[bareemperor]

9/II = CIA false flag op?

Patriot Act, Military Commissions Act = Constitution Burned?

Proposed SB 1959 = Institutionalized hatred and fear?

C''mon, babyboomers - you stopped these same tyrants before, it''s time to act once more.

Remove the traitors before 9/III

[dmhphils]

If you change the Muslim references to Christian references, these statements applies to Bush.


Posted by formrusmcsgt at 07:27 AM : Dec 04, 2007
----------------------------------------------

You guys spend so much time belly-achin about Bush that you miss the real trouble that is on the threshold.....The Jihadis believe that Islam should own and control the middle East first, then Europe, then the world. All who do ;not bow to their will of thinking should be killed, enslaved, or subjugated. They want to finish the Holocaust, destroy Israel, and purge the world of Jews......and people like you are buying right into it.......

[dmhphils]

Change. It''''s not flip flopping it is being mature enough and honorable enough to admit wrong, take a deep breath , reassess and come up with a new outlook and strategy to match this new information. Otherwise, you and others will be just a few more victims of Darwinism.
Posted by b-easy63 at 07:33 AM : Dec 04, 2007
-----------------------------------------

So, you''re saying you think this guy has evolved and changed into what? a butterfly or Tinkerbell? Get a grip on reality dude and look at this guys rhetoric he has been throwing around LATELY, especially about the conference in Annapolis, how it will fail and Israel is doomed.

You liberals are amazingly stupid! The liberal mentality is supposed to favor human rights, democracy, multiculturalism, diversity etc.....but if the Jihad wins, that will be the END of civil rights, human rights, democracy, multiculturalism and diversity. And you libs won''t be able to stroll through the park hand in hand gossiping about same *** marriages........WHEN THE MULLAHS TAKE OVER!

[neoconrcrazy]

this report attests to the waning influence of cheney to demand the intel he wants - the disappearing neocon ideologues (where is Perleman, Feith, Wolfowitz, et al.? - on some campus training the next generation of pre-emptives?) - and bushits lame duck status.

finally some fresh air......

[gunshack1]

Well, the good news is, the Central Unintelligence Agency found out before we bombed them.

[abbe91]

How do they dare publishing a report ignoring the sacred truth that only Queen Bush knows ...
More than time to out some of these CIA agents ...
didn''t they learn from last time ?

[abbe91]

"Think about it. Iran with nukes starts to threaten to supply them to our enemies, what are you gonna do then? Whine some more?
Posted by TheGateway1 at 01:15 AM : Dec 04, 2007"

Why is it OK when it''s Pakistan ? because Musharraf is a "friend" ?

[b-easy63]

How pitiful, indeed, is our state of intelligence that we failed to detect the halt of a program over 4 years ago. Truly sad. Posted by formrusmcsgt at 07:24 AM : Dec 04, 2007


Another article on this subject quotes a government official stating that they knew "too late" to put it in the 2005 Assessment. (on Roadrunner) given that remark, it is highly likely this was known at the time of the 2005 report or soon after but was buried like so many inconvenient truths that Bush has deliberately buried to keep his agenda on tract and the rest of us blindly accepting an following along. He has a history of burying or cherry picking NIE reports since he got into office.

Like he knew the Niger yellowcake data was fake but spoke about it anyway.

Like he knew that there was no intelligence linking Saddam to the Taliban, Al Qaeda or 9/11 but linked them anyway

Like he knew the data from curveball was tainted but presented it to Congress anyway

Like he knew he had no grounds for Wiretaps in 2003 but planted them anyway

Like he knew the war was going badly but lied about it anyway

Like he knew there were no WMD in Iraq, but kept lying as long as he could.

Bush is the Master of lies and obfuscation. The trick of a good lie is to keep the truth out of the reach of everyone--because a lie is only recognized as such when something comes out to challenge it. Bush BURIES the challenges to his lies under the title of National Security.

[b-easy63]

Ahmagonnajihad is rapidly becoming an ever-clearer danger to global stability -- intent on taking Jews and other infidels with him in a holy nuclear cloud on Judgment Day. This leader is not playing at being nuts. This leader is nuts, by every observable rational measure.
The Iranians unilaterally ended international negotiations over the country''''s reprocessing capabilities by breaking the IAEA''''s seals at three Iranian nuclear facilities and resuming uranium enrichment. Western intelligence agencies believe that Iran is five to 10 years away from making a bomb
By Jim Hoagland
Sunday, January 15, 2006; Page B07

Are you also the same kind of person that repeatedly cuts and pastes remarks of Democrats endorsing going after Saddam long after we found out there were no WMD?

Understand that evolution means growth and growth requires CONTINUAL adaptation and adjustment to new information. See that date 2006? Well, you have new information now. Try to assimilate it, analyze it and act on it instead of justifying your old point of view and trying to continue to perpetuate actions based on that old view.

Change. It''s not flip flopping it is being mature enough and honorable enough to admit wrong, take a deep breath , reassess and come up with a new outlook and strategy to match this new information. Otherwise, you and others will be just a few more victims of Darwinism.

Posted by noseonurface at 06:46 AM : Dec 04, 2007

[b-easy63]

I believe the U.S. released it to prevent Israel from nuking Iran! Israel had Iran in its sights no doubt, it will be hard for Israel to justify attacking Iran now!

Posted by tbweb at 07:15 AM : Dec 04, 2007


Are we talking about the same Israel that has bombed and killed Red cross relief workers and fired on UN outposts after telling them the coast was clear?

The same that had soldiers admitting to using an 8 year old Palestinian girl for target practice and getting an acquittal?

The same that used cluster bomblets in Lebanon, killed way more civilians than Hezbollah and shrugged it shoulders? The same Israel that finally admitted to kidnapping Hezbollah family relatives to extort information or concessions from them and also admitted that the kidnap of their 2 guys could have been retaliation?

The Israel that fired on an American ship with impunity, that lobbies successfully every year for the charity of billions of US dollars, and military AID and which appears to be in control of our Congress and Presidency?

The one country that the UN claims has broken more cease fires than any other country on the planet? That Israel?

That Israel does not care what the international community thinks--not as long as its largest sycophant stays on its lap and keeps financing their brand of terrorism and blindly follows their claims and blindly takes their side--eschewing any objectivity for anyone else in the region--whenever Israel is involved.

[formrusmcsgt]

His pathological allegations go so far that he claims %u201Cthe Imam protects him with a halo of light%u201D.
Ahmadinejad cannot accept critics, he mocks and enjoys that everything is owed to him as a right. Preoccupied with his own fantasies, he must always be the centre of attention. He boasts that he advises international leaders and he know more than any one. He presents himself as the "Ultimate One":

Posted by noseonurface at 06:03 AM : Dec 04, 2007

If you change the Muslim references to Christian references, these statements applies to Bush.

[formrusmcsgt]

How pitiful, indeed, is our state of intelligence that we failed to detect the halt of a program over 4 years ago.

Truly sad.

[mcvet]

That''''s Ahmagonnjihad folks. What a nice guy. It''''s not fear......it is wisdom that gives you the discretion to know what to do before you need to do it.

Posted by noseonurface at 06:03 AM : Dec 04, 2007
+ report abuse

Okay Ahmagonnjihad is a bad guy, I''ll give you that one but compared to some of the REALLY bad guys our GREAT leaders have faced this guy is nothing. The USSR during the Cuban Missle Crisis?? Now THERE was a bad guy and a REAL challenge for a Leader. Bush is stupid and Incompetent... add to that he''s a compulsive LIAR! Who in their right mind believes ONE word this MORON says is beyond me. Sieg Heil Bush!!

[b-easy63]

So, this proves that Bushit and Co. are closer to the Saudi Arabs then the Jews. Take a back seat Israel - the A-rabs have Oil - you just got money.

Heeheehee

Posted by watcher269 at 02:15 AM : Dec 04, 2007


They don''t even have ''money''. at least 6 billion of that money comes from us each year and we have had them on the take since 1948. Even in America, Welfare usually stops at age 18 for dependents--unless a person is handicapped or retarded. So which is Israel?

[b-easy63]

And to think a lot of Americans wanted to invade them and start another war based (AGAIN) on the false assumptions, trumped up assessments and LIES of the Bush administration. ("WE KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE WMD ARE...").

In these times, soooo many are sooo eager to stop the ''bad guys'' and show our toughness that we are becoming the bad guys--more capable (and prone) in causing WWIII than any other country.

Neo Cons: this is an OOOOPS moment.

OOOOPS that after 7 years of Bush lies and seeing what those lies and actions have done to another people and to ourselves, so many still trust and believe the misleadings of these warmongers.

OOOOPS because this is one NIE that Bush seems to have lacked the ability to bury long enough to get his war. guess his power is really waning though 2 years of extra lies and rhetoric DID spread his paranoia of Iran and did bring many to the conclusion once again that war might be the only option.

Too bad "oops" is a word more suited to grabbing the wrong fork at a dinner party or forgetting the salt in the popcorn, than it is at cleaning up or making up for destroying cultures and living things.

[tbweb]

The disclosure of this information about Irans nuclear program came at a crucial time, I believe the U.S. released it to prevent Israel from nuking Iran! Israel had Iran in its sights no doubt, it will be hard for Israel to justify attacking Iran now!

[neoconrcrazy]

Jim Hoagland is also known for notably having backed the later disgraced Ahmad Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress as an asset in the U.S. war in Iraq. Hoagland has since changed his position on Chalabi and the information about WMD''s.

[dmhphils]

Ahmagonnajihad is rapidly becoming an ever-clearer danger to global stability -- intent on taking Jews and other infidels with him in a holy nuclear cloud on Judgment Day. This leader is not playing at being nuts. This leader is nuts, by every observable rational measure.
The Iranians unilaterally ended international negotiations over the country''s reprocessing capabilities by breaking the IAEA''s seals at three Iranian nuclear facilities and resuming uranium enrichment. Western intelligence agencies believe that Iran is five to 10 years away from making a bomb


By Jim Hoagland
Sunday, January 15, 2006; Page B07