Iraq Violence At Lowest Levels In 2 Years

Muted Optimism As Death Tolls For Iraqi Civilians And U.S. Troops Go From "Horrific" To "Very Bad"

(AP)  The number of Iraqis killed last month fell to 718, an Associated Press tally showed, the lowest monthly death toll since just before the 2006 bombing of a Shiite shrine provoked a vicious cycle of retaliatory sectarian violence.

The figures come as the military says violence has fallen to levels not seen in nearly two years, while acknowledging that Iraqis are still dying in unacceptable numbers.

An expert on the effect of conflicts on civilians agreed, saying that while the downward trend was positive, it needed to be kept in perspective.

"We've gone from horrific levels of murder to very bad, which is an improvement but not a reason to celebrate," said Richard Garfield, a professor at New York's Columbia University and a manager of health and nutrition for the World Health Organization. "At these so-called low levels, there's a massive number of excess deaths still likely to occur."

It was the third consecutive monthly decline in the death toll of Iraqi civilians and security forces since August, when a massive suicide bombing targeting minority Yazidis in northern Iraq helped push the figure to at least 1,956.

Some 500 are thought to have perished in the bombing of the Yazidis.

At least 1,023 Iraqis were killed in September, 911 in October and 718 in November, the lowest since January 2006, when 615 Iraqis were killed, according to figures compiled by the AP from hospital, police and military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent deaths were not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher civilian death tolls.

The number of U.S. troop deaths also declined for the sixth consecutive month, with at least 37 recorded in November, according to an AP tally based on military figures. That was the lowest number since March 2006, when 31 American service members died.

Despite the overall drop in deadly violence last month, at least seven Iraqis were killed in three attacks in and around Baghdad today.

A roadside bomb in a Sunni-dominated neighborhood claimed the lives of two police officers. Another officer was shot to death on his way to work.

Three soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb north of the city. And a third bomb blew up beneath a parked car near a Shiite mosque, taking the life of a civilian.

The U.S. military has said the decline in the number of deadly attacks is largely due to a troop buildup this summer of some 30,000 additional troops that enabled them to get closer to the population, as well as a sharp turn of public opinion against al Qaeda in Iraq and other extremist groups.

But American commanders and other officials have gone to great lengths to warn that militants on both sides of the Sunni-Shiite divide still pose a major threat, and violence continues.

"We're always encouraged by any downward trend in violence, but we can't get complacent," said Navy Lt. Patrick Evans, a military spokesman.

"There have been improvements in security, however, militants, insurgents, extremists and criminals out there will continue to keep looking for opportunities, so we have to remain vigilant and on alert," he added. "There's still a lot of work that needs to be done."

The numbers were high even before the Feb. 22, 2006 bombing in the city of Samarra north of Baghdad, which devastated the golden dome of a revered Shiite shrine. But the attack caused longstanding tensions to boil over and assassinations, bombings and execution-style killings were rampant.

November of that year was one of the deadliest of the war, with at least 2,250 Iraqis killed, dwarfing recent figures.

Garfield, the Columbia University expert, expressed concern that the recent reports of the decline in violence could tempt people to ignore the fact that the numbers are still high amid rising public criticism of the war.

"I think there is a great potential to close the door on Iraq, bring the troops home, wash our hands of it," he said in a telephone interview from Geneva. "But the improving trend suggests that the right kind of presence of the international force can make a tremendous difference in how the Iraqis are doing and they will need that presence for a long time."

He also estimated the count was only one-third of the actual total, underlining the difficulties in keeping track of the number of Iraqi civilians who have been killed since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003, with wide-ranging estimates that cannot be confirmed due to the tenuous security situation.

Iraq Body Count, an independent organization that tracks media reports as well as official figures, estimates that 77,573 to 84,502 civilians have been killed.

In a bid to better detect trends in the violence, the U.S. military is planning to increasingly use Iraqi data while warning that both sets of information are flawed.

"We recognize that when we only use coalition reports we underreport," said Col. Bill Rapp, a senior aide to the top U.S. commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus.

Rapp, speaking to a small group of reporters at a recent briefing on measuring trends, said the increasing use of Iraqi data became a priority as Petraeus shifted the U.S. command's focus to protecting the Iraqi people. It also will help the military fill in the gaps as it draws down forces and transfers more security responsibilities to the Iraqi government in coming months.

U.S. officials acknowledged that Iraqi government data is often incomplete and imprecise as well as tainted by potential sectarian bias. For example, there was a 50 percent decrease in field reports to the Iraqi national command center in October after the government failed to pay a contractor responsible for satellite transmission of the data.

But the military is working with the Iraqis to develop an automated database of their own that would help eliminate duplicate reports, among other attributes.

"We want to avoid the perception that if the coalition forces did not see it, it did not happen," said Lt. Col. Todd Gesling, an Army officer who works with databases.

[prinzowhales]

Americans! Are you enjoying trillions in new debt? an open border?...are you enjoying rising energy prices?...How about the current mortgage crisis and the hidden bailout of corporations whose CEOs ''earn'' tens of millions of dollars?...Do you like the hundreds of thousands of maimed US soldiers who are on permanent disability from this, the Stupid Peoples'' War? If you do...get out there and support the War Pig candidates in both parties...shout the war cry of Neo-Con America with pride...SOO...SOO...SOUIE!!!...SOO....SOO...SOOO-IEEE!!!...Get out there and support Hillary...Obama...Romney....Huckabee...McCain....
Giulliani...usw....SOO...SOO...SOO-IE!

[prinzowhales]

swwils--"a smash up job"...Indeed. We''ve contributed to the murder of some two million human beings by instigating and supporting Saddam''s war of aggression against Iran, through Bush41 Ambassador April Glaspie we gave Saddam the go ahead to attack the slant drilling oil thieves of Kuwait...we reduced the Iraqi infrastructure to rubble and imposed sanctions that ultimately kiled hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children and then we lied, lied, lied...and, did I mention, "lied" to rationalize a new war of aggression against Iraq which has led to more death and millions of refugees, we''ve poisoned the land, water and air of Iraq with DU and we have well over a quarter of a million US veterans on disability from action in Iraq....This is the net result of nearly thirty years of US policy with regard to Iraq...just what do you consider "overnight"? Now just what in the ''ell did the average American get out of this nightmare?

[swwils]

The troops and the Government have done a smash up job over their.It will not happen over night but I see it coming along.

[iceman_1960]

"One man"s terrorist is another man"s Freedom Fighter."

Of course the insurgents in Iraq are not "Freedom Fighters" by the wildest stretch of the imagination.

Neither were the Contras.

Just because Reagan said it, doesn"t make it so. Reagan said a lot of stupid things.

[iceman_1960]

"And since when does the Guardian refer to someone as a key insurgent leader, instead of what they truly are, a terrorist? Oh, since the Guardian is a lib rag, that"s why."
- Posted by TheGateway1 at 01:02 AM : Dec 03, 2007

Perhaps they were influenced by that long-haired old Leftie Ronald Reagan, who said (of the murderous Contras):

"One man"s terrorist is another man"s Freedom Fighter."

[iceman_1960]

RE: "dork never researched the Human Rights org website to see how many thousands have been killed by Chavez"

Below is what HumanRightsWatch.org (I presume you meant them) says.

I believe you misread the report. They said that thousands of people were demonstrating against Chavez, and some were killed in the clashes with police.

Not "thousands were killed" -- i.e. a "killing fields" situation there. We would all have heard about that by now. Even at CBS.

http://hrw.org/english/docs/2007/11/28/venezu17432.htm

[iceman_1960]

Here is the link to Amnesty International"s 2007 Venezuela report:

http://thereport.amnesty.org/eng/Regions/Americas/Venezuela

[iceman_1960]

"(dork never researched the Human Rights org website to see how many thousands have been killed by Chavez)"
- Posted by TheGateway1 at 01:08 AM : Dec 03, 2007

Amnesty International gives the number as less than 50, killed in clashes between demonstrators and police, and in other extrajudicial killings.

Still bad, but not in the same league with Bush"s 80,000 Iraqi civilians killed as a result of his ego-driven invasion.

But fewer have been killed the last two months, you"ll be thrilled to learn.

[ubrew12]

See. If we just spend enough of our kids inheritance, and kill enough of our kids,

I KNEW we could exhaust those insurgent bast*rds.

OK.

Phew, I''m exhausted!

[feelfree1]

The Bush regime''s "surge" is a joke. A bad one.

Related:

"Iraqi insurgents regrouping, says Sunni resistance leader"

Monday December 3, 2007
The Guardian

"Iraq''s main Sunni-led resistance groups have scaled back their attacks on US forces in Baghdad and parts of Anbar province in a deliberate strategy aimed at regrouping, retraining, and waiting out George Bush''s "surge", a key insurgent leader has told the Guardian."

www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2220868,00.html

[downtowner97]

Iceman, you''re ugly and your mother dresses you funny. Feel better now? :)

[downtowner97]

You don''t get to claim victory and be called a hero for putting out a fire you yourself set.

Fewer people are shooting partly because there are fewer people. The terrorists are going mafia and selling the things people need, and people are collecting in areas where other like-minded people live. Imaginary lines are being drawn that will someday become permanent.

We''ve broken Iraq, and the only people who have benefited own oil companies. There''s only occasional power, little running water, and no jobs other than "policeman" which comes with an automatic death sentence. Christians can''t live in Iraq now, but they did under Saddam. Tariq Aziz, who was second in command in Iraq was a practicing Catholic. Now saying you''re Christian is a death sentence in Iraq just like it is in Saudi Arabia.

[donbl1]

Time for bed. See you guys tomorrow.

don

[donbl1]

Ice, liberals have more mental health issues.....

Just kidding,

I really do think we will see this come to an end in the next year. Not necessarily because of management but because of many factors including politics, US elections, Iraqi tiring of violence and etc. And, Petraeus.

[iceman_1960]

If nobody is going to insult me tonight, I"m leaving.

I don"t have to stand for this.

[iceman_1960]

"Ice, I read that but it has ALWAYS been about a third..... so, it is still coming down but it is definitely too high - except in Anbar, BTW."
- Posted by donbl1 at 10:15 PM : Dec 02, 2007

You"re very mellow tonight.

Nothing I say makes you angry. (Not even my nasty remark "...if you were a patriot.")

[donbl1]

Ice, I read that but it has ALWAYS been about a third..... so, it is still coming down but it is definitely too high - except in Anbar, BTW.

[iceman_1960]

In his jubilant victory dance there are parts of the report donbl1 failed to read closely enough:

"[Garfield] also estimated the count was only one-third of the actual total, underlining the difficulties in keeping track of the number of Iraqi civilians who have been killed since the U.S.-led invasion in March 2003, with wide-ranging estimates that cannot be confirmed due to the tenuous security situation.

Iraq Body Count, an independent organization that tracks media reports as well as official figures, estimates that 77,573 to 84,502 civilians have been killed.

In a bid to better detect trends in the violence, the U.S. military is planning to increasingly use Iraqi data while warning that both sets of information are flawed.

...U.S. officials acknowledged that Iraqi government data is often incomplete and imprecise as well as tainted by potential sectarian bias."

[donbl1]

J, don''t blame Israel/Palestin on Bush. That is the product of many presidents.

As I said earlier, we can not do anything about the past only the future. I believe the forces of nature (political) are coming to bear (or bare) on the two wars and a lot will be accomplished by November 2008. I do fear political expediency.

[johnshaft4]

This is only because that there are LESS Iraqis alive to kill.