Giuliani's Stump Stats Often Off The Mark

The Skinny: Ex-Mayor Makes Statistics A Centerpiece, But Often Gets Them Wrong, Says NY Times

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Rudy Giuliani loves numbers - and not just "9" and "11." He adores statistics of all varieties so much that he has made them a centerpiece of his campaign.

The only problem, reports the New York Times' Michael Cooper, is that they are often incorrect. Not just occasionally, and not just a little, but, shall we say, a statistically significant percentage of the time.

For example, he told a television interviewer that New York was "the only city in American that has reduced crime every single year since 1994." Wrong. Chicago has done it too.

In New Hampshire last week, he told a public forum that when he became mayor in 1994, New York "had been averaging like 1,800, 1,900 murders for almost 30 years." That's not really true. New York averaged 1,514 murders for that 30-year period. It didn't record 1,800 murders a year until 1980.

And he recently boasted at a Republican debate that "under me, spending went down 7 percent." Uh, no. His own memoir says that spending grew an average of 3.7 percent for most of his tenure. An aide said that what he meant to say was that he has proposed a 7 percent per capita reduction in spending during his time in mayor.

Lately, Mitt Romney and Giuliani's rivals have begun pointing out these errors. Giuliani's campaign says they're nitpicking.

"The mayor likes detail, and uses it frequently on the campaign trail in ways the other candidates don't," said Maria Comella, a campaign spokeswoman. "And at the end of the day, he is making points that are true."

Except when they aren't.

One unchecked fact has been getting him in a lot of trouble lately. In a recent radio advertisement about his health care proposal, Giuliani, who has had prostate cancer, asserted that his chances of surviving prostate cancer were 82 percent, while his chance of surviving in England would have been only 44 percent. His point was that the American health care system is far superior to England's government-run system, which he refers to as "socialized medicine."

The figure came from an article written by one of Giuliani's health care advisers, but was soon discredited: the actual five-year survival rate in Britain is 74.4 percent - lower than the U.S., but not by much. Romney has recently begun capitalizing on this, saying Giuliani's crime statistics are "about as accurate as his prostate cancer survival numbers for England."

Probably most troubling about the whole thing is that Giuliani stood by the discredited statistic and the ad, though it has since gone off the air.

Iowa Hearts Huckabee

"One of the biggest surprises of the presidential race."

That's what the Los Angeles Times is calling Mike Huckabee's recent surge in the polls in Iowa, where he's now running nearly even with longtime front-runner Mitt Romney.

There's been a crescendo of pro-Huckabee rumblings in the mainstream media in recent weeks, but the former Arkansas governor gave himself a huge boost in this week's Republican debate with some witty one-liners that made him seem like a likeable human being.

This is very bad news for Romney, who, though arguably likeable -- if, by "likeable," you mean "possessing the qualities that surveys say people like" -- has had trouble convincing people that he is actually a human being.

He's spent a fortune, much of it his own, on television ads in Iowa. Earlier this month was leading Huckabee by double digits. Meanwhile, the cash-strapped Huckabee went door-to-door, working that "likeable" thing.

It appears to have paid off, and now the Romney campaign is giving quotes-of-the-doomed.

"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, an attorney overseeing Romney's Iowa campaign. "If he finishes in the top two, he's fine."

Ouch.

Texas Educator Said she Was Ousted For Endorsing Evolution

It was a big day for creationists in today's papers. First you have Mike Huckabee, who has publicly voiced his support for creationism, surging in the polls in Iowa. And then you have Chris Comer, Texas' director of science curriculum, forced out of her job by officials who said she had given the appearance of criticizing the teaching of intelligent design, according to the New York Times.

Comer was placed on 30 days' paid administrative leave in last October, resulting in what she called a forced resignation.

The move came shortly after she forwarded an e-mail message announcing a presentation by Barbara Forrest, an author of "Creationism's Trojan Horse." The book argues that creationist politics are behind the movement to get intelligent design theory taught in public schools. Comer sent the message to several people and a few online communities.

Comer, who held her job for nine years, said she believed evolution politics were behind her ousting. "None of the other reasons that they gave are, in and of themselves, firing offenses," she said.

Education agency officials declined to comment on the matter. But they explained their recommendation to fire Comer in documents obtained by The Austin American-Statesman through the Texas Public Information Act.

"Ms. Comer's e-mail implies endorsement of the speaker and implies that T.E.A. endorses the speaker's position on a subject on which the agency must remain neutral," the officials said.

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[ih2005]

Mitt, Mitt, full of cash.
Will you let me keep my stash?
Savings, Yes, but paychecks, No!
Just another politico.
Hope for tax reform, I see,
Will be voting HUCKABEE! http://snipr.com/fthuckabeeonirs

[lnardozi]

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/11/29/ap4386400.html

[prinzowhales]

Mafiosi Giuliani won''t answer the real questions posed by ''We Are Change''...why did he lie about WTC 7 on 9-11?...why did he betray the first responders?

New York is an open city thanks to Giuliani...that means the treasuries of New York City, New York State and the US are open to support illegal immigrants... to build schools for their children...for welfare...jail cells and the like...and to keep wages down in America...Because as working Americans know, it is your grotesquely high wages and unrealistic benefits that are causing gas and food prices to rise and is the primary cause of the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

[iceman_1960]

"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, an attorney overseeing Romney"s Iowa campaign.


Oh come on, Doug, you"re just saying that because you work for him.

[iceman_1960]

"And at the end of the day, [Rudy Giuliani] is making points that are true."

He should be doing it all day long.

[ioweign]

Giuliani''s Stump Stats Often Off The Mark

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Well, he is trying to get Bush''s job isn''t he ?

Out Bush, Bush !

[fairandbal]

Rudy''s ''S-E-X on the City'' scandal is really a hoot. Can the GOP really seriously claim the moral high ground anymore? Can the hard core GOP really vote for this clown? Stay tuned.

[fairandbal]

Rudy''s ''*** on the City'' scandal is really a hoot. Can the GOP really seriously claim the moral high ground anymore? Can the hard core GOP really vote for this clown? Stay tuned.

[blazercoach1]

Noting how often the NY Times fudges things and gets conclusions from data completely wrong.....I find this topic ironic.

However,www.factcheck.org busts BOTH sides. Giuliani is mentioned quite a bit, most often, in fact...but so are Edwards and Clinton.

Check it out folks....www.factcheck.org I''m a statistics teacher. I use these folks quite a bit. They are VERY unbiased, in my opinion. They bust EVERYONE.

[chalres-2009]

I love the way BUSH has lowered the bar so much that these kinds of candidates are even considered. Since Bush was a C student, cocaine using draft evader, with silver spooned rich kid background, what is next? One of these guys? Say it isn''t so...