Giuliani's Stump Stats Often Off The Mark

The Skinny: Ex-Mayor Makes Statistics A Centerpiece, But Often Gets Them Wrong, Says NY Times

(CBS)  The Skinny is Keach Hagey's take on the top news of the day and the best of the Internet.

---

Rudy Giuliani loves numbers - and not just "9" and "11." He adores statistics of all varieties so much that he has made them a centerpiece of his campaign.

The only problem, reports the New York Times' Michael Cooper, is that they are often incorrect. Not just occasionally, and not just a little, but, shall we say, a statistically significant percentage of the time.

For example, he told a television interviewer that New York was "the only city in American that has reduced crime every single year since 1994." Wrong. Chicago has done it too.

In New Hampshire last week, he told a public forum that when he became mayor in 1994, New York "had been averaging like 1,800, 1,900 murders for almost 30 years." That's not really true. New York averaged 1,514 murders for that 30-year period. It didn't record 1,800 murders a year until 1980.

And he recently boasted at a Republican debate that "under me, spending went down 7 percent." Uh, no. His own memoir says that spending grew an average of 3.7 percent for most of his tenure. An aide said that what he meant to say was that he has proposed a 7 percent per capita reduction in spending during his time in mayor.

Lately, Mitt Romney and Giuliani's rivals have begun pointing out these errors. Giuliani's campaign says they're nitpicking.

"The mayor likes detail, and uses it frequently on the campaign trail in ways the other candidates don't," said Maria Comella, a campaign spokeswoman. "And at the end of the day, he is making points that are true."

Except when they aren't.

One unchecked fact has been getting him in a lot of trouble lately. In a recent radio advertisement about his health care proposal, Giuliani, who has had prostate cancer, asserted that his chances of surviving prostate cancer were 82 percent, while his chance of surviving in England would have been only 44 percent. His point was that the American health care system is far superior to England's government-run system, which he refers to as "socialized medicine."

The figure came from an article written by one of Giuliani's health care advisers, but was soon discredited: the actual five-year survival rate in Britain is 74.4 percent - lower than the U.S., but not by much. Romney has recently begun capitalizing on this, saying Giuliani's crime statistics are "about as accurate as his prostate cancer survival numbers for England."

Probably most troubling about the whole thing is that Giuliani stood by the discredited statistic and the ad, though it has since gone off the air.

Iowa Hearts Huckabee

"One of the biggest surprises of the presidential race."

That's what the Los Angeles Times is calling Mike Huckabee's recent surge in the polls in Iowa, where he's now running nearly even with longtime front-runner Mitt Romney.

There's been a crescendo of pro-Huckabee rumblings in the mainstream media in recent weeks, but the former Arkansas governor gave himself a huge boost in this week's Republican debate with some witty one-liners that made him seem like a likeable human being.

This is very bad news for Romney, who, though arguably likeable -- if, by "likeable," you mean "possessing the qualities that surveys say people like" -- has had trouble convincing people that he is actually a human being.

He's spent a fortune, much of it his own, on television ads in Iowa. Earlier this month was leading Huckabee by double digits. Meanwhile, the cash-strapped Huckabee went door-to-door, working that "likeable" thing.

It appears to have paid off, and now the Romney campaign is giving quotes-of-the-doomed.

"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, an attorney overseeing Romney's Iowa campaign. "If he finishes in the top two, he's fine."

Ouch.

Texas Educator Said she Was Ousted For Endorsing Evolution

It was a big day for creationists in today's papers. First you have Mike Huckabee, who has publicly voiced his support for creationism, surging in the polls in Iowa. And then you have Chris Comer, Texas' director of science curriculum, forced out of her job by officials who said she had given the appearance of criticizing the teaching of intelligent design, according to the New York Times.

Comer was placed on 30 days' paid administrative leave in last October, resulting in what she called a forced resignation.

The move came shortly after she forwarded an e-mail message announcing a presentation by Barbara Forrest, an author of "Creationism's Trojan Horse." The book argues that creationist politics are behind the movement to get intelligent design theory taught in public schools. Comer sent the message to several people and a few online communities.

Comer, who held her job for nine years, said she believed evolution politics were behind her ousting. "None of the other reasons that they gave are, in and of themselves, firing offenses," she said.

Education agency officials declined to comment on the matter. But they explained their recommendation to fire Comer in documents obtained by The Austin American-Statesman through the Texas Public Information Act.

"Ms. Comer's e-mail implies endorsement of the speaker and implies that T.E.A. endorses the speaker's position on a subject on which the agency must remain neutral," the officials said.

A NOTE TO READERS: The Skinny is available via e-mail. Click here and follow the directions to register to receive it in your inbox each weekday morning.

[gkc99]

""Creationism''s Trojan Horse." The book argues that creationist politics are behind the movement to get intelligent design theory taught in public schools."


Gosh, who could think that, just because these so-called "creation scientists" constantly spout biblical theories! Sounds like it''s Scopes Monkey Trial time all over again.

Of course in Texas many are not descended from apes, but from substantially lower life forms much more recently.

[slim1h2o]

Another liar we will have to defeat. Come November 08!

[debluezzman]

they all shood be shot

[nerfff-2009]

You are biased. Only Dems will listen to you.

[gunownerdan]

Giuliani is just another member of the CFR(Council on Foreign Relations) just like Clinton, Obama, Huckabee, Edwards, Romney, Biden, McCain, Richardson, and Thompson to name a few.
The CFR has hijacked the foreign policy of both parties and their main goal is to destroy American sovereignty and our constitution leading to the formation of a North American Union with Canada and Mexico.
Please learn more about the CFR and their agenda to destroy America!

[random_radar]

"Of course in Texas many are not descended from apes, but from substantially lower life forms much more recently.

Posted by gkc99 at 10:46 AM : Nov 30, 2007"

But we are still an improvement over you ;)

[oscarez]

Mike Huckabee, who has publicly voiced his support for creationism and that the earth is only 6,000 years is a nut case and a very dangerous man. The USA is moving into a dark time, the new dark ages.

[Con Mohrat]

We already have a deceiver in the White House. Why would we want this Catholic with 2 divorces and three First Ladies in there next ?

We read in the current papers he let New York City taxpayers psy to transport his paramour around the city while still married to Wife Nbr 2.

Now, the other repub candidates say he is putting out deceitful info in his campaign propaganda.

Ignore the little man and nip his candidacy in the bud.

[mike71067]

Hmmm - I don''t recall reading about any of Hillary''s lies in this column. I guess you have to be a GOP candidate to be put under the microscope here. No big surprise - the liberal media will bash Republicans and support Democrats every chance they get.

[newideas1]

I respect people who are passionate about their beliefs, but I don''t have much respect for someone who derides the beliefs of others. That is why I admire Mike Huckabee''s approach to the debates and his campaign.

If you want a President who is intelligent, compassionate, and tempered in his judgment, I encourage you to take my challenge and visit: www.abuckforhuck.com.

[jasonmcj]

You people are STILL on the "liberal media" rant? LOL...wow!

Don''t you realize only Fox News clowns and Rush zombie beleive that nonsense? Which are you?

[jasonmcj]

Talk about conspiracy nut jobs...you Republicans are out there%u2026 You claim everything is a liberal conspiracy%u2026always the victim%u2026Yet, facts proves everything the media says to be true. Your %u201Cliberal%u201D conspiracy theory is the BEST (and most ridiculous) conspiracy theory of all%u2026.and its funny too since you can%u2019t force the hand of the nation anymore with your Christo-fascism.

[rational_1]

Mike Huckabee, who has publicly voiced his support for creationism and that the earth is only 6,000 years is a nut case and a very dangerous man. The USA is moving into a dark time, the new dark ages.
Posted by Oscarez at 11:52 AM : Nov 30, 2007

Maybe he was bitten by one of the rattlesnakes he was handling during a service and the toxins have affected his reasoning abilities.

[pepperp1]

Wait a minute, you sure Rudy is still a Catholic and not thrown out, I know he got an annulment from his cousin the first wife, but not the 2nd one before he married the third one did he don%u2019t they throw bums like that out of the church. And beside with that goofy group the Catholic League Donahue guy acting like they he speaks for all Catholics who becomes so rattled by fairy tales instead of the real crimes of their church, who would want to be a member anyway. Even their pope said the Leagues rejection of evolution was absurd and it is.



AND no wonder the kid dosent like his pop found this gem unrefutted by the way.....this isnt Judith for those of you keeping score On Father''s Day, 1995 Giuliani had told reporters that he was returning to Gracie Mansion to play ball with Andrew. However, he instead went to City Hall, to a basement suite with his press secretary. Three hours later, Hanover, angered, appeared at City Hall; yet a mayoral aide prevented her from entering the suite.



What did this guy do invite the press to participate in this humliation of his then wife how arrogant...

[gunownerdan]

Rich and powerful politicians like Hitlery and Giuliani will often say and do anything that they think could give them more power. Even if it''s using an obvious lie!

[ov442]

hah! Whatever! The Media''s job is to report whats going on in politics, its their constitutional check on the government''s criminal wrong doings.
The fact is they arent picking on the Republican or White house... The GOP controlled the Congress for like what 15 yrs? so they were at fault for everything, Bush controlled the white house since Jan 2001. Period, its their job and they are doing it.
If it seems like there is more media coverage of the GOP wrong doings, its only because there are more wrongdoings to cover.
Besides, complaining about the coverage of the crimes and immoral acts, makes those complaining sound like they want those acts to continue and would rather them be covered up instead.
Theres your republican party for ya.

Romney thinks its ok for people to not make religion an issue when he is running for President, but that its ok for him to say that no Muslim will be in his cabinet...wow!

Romney thinks its ok for people to not make religion an issue when he is running for President, but that its ok for him to say that no Muslim will be in his cabinet...wow!

[random_radar]

Since when do we expect politicians to tell the truth? This is the first time anyone has intimated that there is a place for veracity in civic affairs. I thought "lie" and "statistics" went together like strawberries and whipped cream.

[jcr103]

It hardly matters if Guiliani enages in fuzzy math. Bush engaged in statistical illusions throughout both of his campaigns and as President but Republicans could care less. There''s not terribly interested in objective facts anyway. Let''s be honest, reality often as a liberal bias.

[timoteotk]

Howard Scream, Al Bore, & Bob Dull...all lost because they were either to boring, condescending or arrogant..they didn''t have something that Clinton(I hate to admit) and now Governor Mike Huckabee have in spades....Likeability...and that goes along way with the coveted independent voters. All of the attemts to make him look like a backwoods bible thumper or a liberal on spending or whatever is only going to backfire. Ordinary people see through this inquisition-style, branding politics. Once again the salt of the earth folks in the middle states, God-willing, will set the "wisdom" of the east coast intellectual elitists & left coast communists on their head!!! And they will still wonder how & why.

Huckabee and McCain are far and above the other candidates...only one problem...Huckabee is going to win without McCain.

Finally after all the verbal stumbles of the Bush presidency we have finally discovered someone who can communicate republican principles with wit & wisdom.

As far as Huckabee''s conservative credentials the way he is running a campaign tells me about that. He is not buying votes like the rest.

[jcr103]

Likeability is indeed one of the main reasons people vote for a particular candidate. But, don''t we deserve competence and honesty above all else? Bush seems like a very likeable guy but his administration is a disaster. Don''t we deserve better than this?

[king16x]

Another blogger misrepresented Huckabee''s statements when the blogger claimed that Huckabee handles snakes during church services.

In the recent debate, Huckabee said that, while he agrees in general with the Bible, he believes that some of the passages are allegorical, and are NOT to be taken literally!

In the Republican debates, most of the candidates try to posture themselves as the biggest, baddest world bullies. Huckabee, meanwhile, said that if you''re looking for a candidate that is mean and angry, then he is not your man. Unlike George W. Bush, Huckabee is truly a compassionate conservative.

[king16x]

How does Rudy Giuliani like the number "343"? That is the number of New York City firefighters who died in the World Trade Center on 9/11/2001. Their radios had been ineffective, the firefighters had been complaining about that for years, and a 1994 mayoral study had confirmed that the radios were faulty. On 9/11, those substandard radios were still in use but not working correctly when the Fire Department chiefs ordered the firefighters to evacuate the towers.

[denn034]

Mistakes sometimes is understandable but, Giuliani''s mistakes have become a trend if the story is correct. Perhaps, Giuliani needs a better speech writer if it''s the writer''s fault that is.

[lanefiller1]

Anyone interested in what Huckabee is really like face to face should try this funny (but it actually happened) column:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14

[ixoye_02]

Do we need another liar and pretender holding the office of president of the USA? NO!!! Giuliani = Sleaziani. If the GOP chooses Sleaziani as the nominee, it just proves to me that the GOP had long abandoned principles of integrity and honesty. No party holds the moral advantage anymore. The GOP seems to have gotten stuck with so many cheaters, liars, and perverts even at the leadership levels. Guiliani is a pretender and a liar just like George W Bush. God help our country!!!

[actornaught]

It''s be hard to take Rudy Empty Suit seriously if it wasn''t for w in the white house. Never underestimate the power of stupid people wanting to elevate their own.

But seriously, rudy''s career has been strictly making something out of nothing. He has near zero popularity with his former constituents in NYC. (Another w parallel, yikes...)

After ronnie, bush 1, and then w, the only conclusion is that the ''pubs manage to get the stupid past the electorate, because they''re easily manipulated by corporations and cronies.

[nyckate]

Gee, you mean Rudy hasn''t been honest or forthright in his statements??

LOL -- of course he hasn''t -- he''s this elections new Georgie Boy for pete''s sake.

Hasn''t this country had enough of these sorts of candidates?? WHy are the so-called conservatives so determined to be stupid about it??

[lnardozi]

How lovely it would be if there were streaming fact checking while the candidates were talking. It''d be ringing off the hook for everyone except Dr. Paul

[gunownerdan]

"Hasn''t this country had enough of these sorts of candidates?? WHy are the so-called conservatives so determined to be stupid about it??"

Posted by nyckate


We the people don''t have much of a choice anymore.
Whichever candidates are best at selling themselves to big money and corporate interests will get the most media attention. That''s why we hear so much about Giuliani, Clinton, Obama, and Romney.

[ghostcommand]

I think I will run for the Presidency. I want to blackmail you by promising to cut taxes, but later I will give the tax cut to the top 1%. I will increase the National Debt by over 57% and increase privatization of the government over 23%. I will also award no-bid and over-inflated contracts to my criminal cronies. I will use the War on Terror as a smokescreen to pull off the largest robbery in history of present and future taxpayer dollars. Do not worry Grandpa and Ma you will not have to pay for this but your children and grandchildren sure will for 30-40 years. I will also reduce our good standing in the world immensely. I will reduce the value of the dollar from 25-40% and the price at the pumps will skyrocket. That tax cut for the wealthy will be great--they will convert their dollars into Euro''s rather than invest in the USA. I will initiate a buyer beware program which will be beneficial to companies/countries that make shoddy or dangerous products. Polluters can do what they want, mine owners do not have to obey safety rules, and I may have all traffic signs removed so you can drive as fast and reckless as you want. Every family can have machine guns, mortars and 500 lb. bombs. Hallejulah! Praise the Lord and be sure you vote for me twice!

[kansas1946]

The only problem, reports the New York Times'' Michael Cooper, is that they are often incorrect. Not just occasionally, and not just a little, but, shall we say, a statistically significant percentage of the time.
*****************************
And this is news? He is a Republican. What do you expect.

[lawyertom1]

Given that virtually everything Rudy claims about himself and his contribution to life, liberty, and security is an exaggeration or inaccurate, why is it surprising that his "stat''s" are guano?

[skyk-2009]

Whichever candidates are best at selling themselves to big money and corporate interests will get the most media attention. That''''s why we hear so much about Giuliani, Clinton, Obama, and Romney.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by gunownerdan at 05:19 PM : Nov 30, 2007
+ report abuse

Now dan I have to call you on this one because when the debate raged about stopping the money Politician''s can collect and how much people can give YOU were opposed to the cut off of that process. We should allow the canidates a specific amount and give them air time to debate the issues, that''s it.

[bhappy2-2]

Giuliani: Kids Of Illegal Immigrants OK

That''''s because Giuliani is an IDIOT! He doesn''''t understand that We, the citizens of America, DO NOT WANT these ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS. We DO NOT support AMNESTY, in any way. We DO NOT support giving these ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS any Drivers license, free medical care, housing, jobs or ANY OTHER form of REWARD for VIOLATING OUR LAWS. These ILLEGAL ALIEN INVADERS need to be dealt with and our borders SEALED.

[cyberus-2009]

ROFL!!!!
Does anyone actually expect them to actually tell the truth or be accurate?????
Only thing that bothers me is that if McCain or Obama spouted nonsense like that it would be a *SPECIAL REPORT* on every news channel.

[rowdytexan2]

What gets me is he suspects everybody to believe all these lies he spouts. To me that shows his contempt thinking we''re all stupid.

[bettybb2]

Huckabee cannot win the election. No independant or Dem will vote for a creationist. First of all, they are anti science, and our country''s wealth is based on science. Second, another who believes such nonsense is dumb as post.

[excelsior9]

If this came from the New York Times, it has democrat newspaper all over it. Thats why I take anything from NYT with a political grain of salt. I do agree the English health care system is not as good as ours. I have used it and the American system is much better. Thier hospitals look like something from the 50''s. The docs there cannot make money under thier system so do not care and are not motivated. Our doctors are motivated by money in most cases, but at least they are motivated by something.

[creeper00]

Don''t you love it? Rudy lies like a rug and when his opponents point out those lies they''re "nitpicking."

[watcher269-2009]

Republican Math. Thats all it is. This is what you children are learning under Republicans. Lack of education - and they - the republicans - flaunt it.

They laugh at these guys in Europe and Everywhere.

The new TV show coming out is - first, have you heard of the TV show, "Are you smarter than a 10 year old"?

Well the New show is - "Are you smarter than an American"!

Well deserved too.

[Ed0719]

It is documented fact that Rudy lies to his wives and family, so is it any surprise he''d lie to everyone else, as well? He is a GOP candidate, after all, and their entire platform is built upon lies. Lies to explain other lies.

The entire GOP candidate parade should be laughed out of the country at best, or shot as traitors, along with their president.

[chalres-2009]

I love the way BUSH has lowered the bar so much that these kinds of candidates are even considered. Since Bush was a C student, cocaine using draft evader, with silver spooned rich kid background, what is next? One of these guys? Say it isn''t so...

[blazercoach1]

Noting how often the NY Times fudges things and gets conclusions from data completely wrong.....I find this topic ironic.

However,www.factcheck.org busts BOTH sides. Giuliani is mentioned quite a bit, most often, in fact...but so are Edwards and Clinton.

Check it out folks....www.factcheck.org I''m a statistics teacher. I use these folks quite a bit. They are VERY unbiased, in my opinion. They bust EVERYONE.

[fairandbal]

Rudy''s ''*** on the City'' scandal is really a hoot. Can the GOP really seriously claim the moral high ground anymore? Can the hard core GOP really vote for this clown? Stay tuned.

[fairandbal]

Rudy''s ''S-E-X on the City'' scandal is really a hoot. Can the GOP really seriously claim the moral high ground anymore? Can the hard core GOP really vote for this clown? Stay tuned.

[ioweign]

Giuliani''s Stump Stats Often Off The Mark

###############


Well, he is trying to get Bush''s job isn''t he ?

Out Bush, Bush !

[iceman_1960]

"And at the end of the day, [Rudy Giuliani] is making points that are true."

He should be doing it all day long.

[iceman_1960]

"It would be nice if Romney won," said Doug Gross, an attorney overseeing Romney"s Iowa campaign.


Oh come on, Doug, you"re just saying that because you work for him.