New Ad Marks New Negative Phase To Race

Anti-Romney Ad Could Open The Door To Bigger Ad Buys Targeting Candidates

(AP)  Mitt Romney is the target, abortion is the issue, and the $100,000 ad buy will change the tone of the Iowa and New Hampshire presidential primaries.

This weekend marks the first negative TV advertising in the two early-voting states as the campaign headed into the critical weeks before the first voting, with an independent group's claim that the former Massachusetts governor has flip-flopped - a sometimes crippling charge in presidential politics. Analysts say similar negative ads are likely against his chief GOP rival, Rudy Giuliani, whose positions on gun control and immigration are markedly different from those he espoused as New York mayor.

The anti-Romney ad campaign, by a Republican group that supports abortion rights, is fairly modest in scope. But it may open the door to bigger ad buys targeting other candidates and topics, several campaign veterans said.

"This will be the beginning of it," said Patrick Griffin, a Manchester-based advertising executive who handled President Bush's 2000 media effort in New Hampshire.

Given the pending ad against Romney and the confrontational tenor of Wednesday's Republican debate in Florida, Griffin said, the top campaigns must be ready to launch hard-hitting ads the instant they decide the benefits outweigh the risks. "You can be sure there are scripts written and, very likely, spots produced," he said.

And if not television, then radio. On Thursday, a Republican group that advocates for gay rights launched a 60-second anti-Romney radio ad criticizing his tax record.

Negative ads are certainly possible in the Democratic contest as well. But strategists say they are not surprised to see them first in the Republican race, where front-runners Romney and Giuliani have left a long evidentiary trail of their changed positions on key issues.

"It's a target-rich environment for negative ads," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.

Accusations of flip-flopping have animated campaigns for years. They proved especially damaging to Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004, and they have dogged Romney and Giuliani this year.

Thus far the accusations have arisen only in debates and news accounts, not in potentially powerful TV ads that often employ ominous music and grainy black-and-white or slow-motion images. And while campaign ads have saturated the Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves for weeks, they have been mostly upbeat, biographical spots.

That will change this weekend when the group Republican Majority for Choice starts its ads - in Iowa and New Hampshire newspapers and TV spots - calling Romney a flip-flopper on abortion.

The ads' potential impact is unclear. Romney repeatedly has acknowledged being an outspoken supporter of abortion rights until he changed his mind a few years ago.

"I don't know how many times I can tell it: I was wrong," he said in Wednesday's debate. Voters seeking candidates who are "not willing to admit they're ever wrong," he said, will "have to find somebody else."

The major threat to Romney would be TV ads suggesting his conversion was politically motivated to appeal to Republican primary voters. Among the rivals already raising the issue is Arizona Sen. John McCain, who has said Romney's biggest challenge "will be convincing Republicans he has principled positions on important issues."

Questions about gay rights also might provide grist for anti-Romney ads. When he unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., in 1994, Romney vowed to outdo the senator in championing the rights of gay men and lesbians in the workplace. "We must make equality for gays and lesbians a mainstream concern," Romney said at the time.

He never supported gay marriage, and he now highlights his support of "the traditional family" and a constitutional amendment to ban on same-sex marriages.

Some Republicans feel Giuliani is equally vulnerable to charges of flip-flopping if a televised feud begins.

As mayor, Giuliani sued gun makers and distributors, backed a federal assault-weapons ban and once described the National Rifle Association as extremist. He no longer holds those views, saying the terrorist attacks of 2001 changed his thinking about weapons and personal protection. He was quoted in 2002 and 2004, however, still staunchly supporting gun control.

Giuliani promises to crack down on illegal immigration, a message also at odds with his record as mayor. In 1996 he said there are times "when undocumented aliens must have a substantial degree of protection" to feel safe sending their children to school, reporting crimes and seeking medical treatment.

Such policy shifts by Giuliani and Romney are ready-made for negative ads, campaign strategists say, but the strategy carries risks. New Hampshire's all-important independent voters are especially leery of one-sided claims, and "there's a danger it can backfire," said Dean Spiliotes, who writes a nonpartisan political blog in New Hampshire.

Moreover, several analysts said, a serious Romney-Giuliani spat could catapult another candidate, such as McCain, to the top.

For all those reasons, it is possible that most or all of the early negative ads will be aired by independent groups, such as the one now targeting Romney on abortion. If the candidates decide to launch their own attack ads, "I think it's likely to happen in the last week or two," said Andy Smith, a pollster at the University of New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, candidates will anxiously monitor polls, campaign event crowds and other signs that their campaign is going up, down or nowhere. Ultimately, at least one candidate will decide negative ads are worth the risk, said Michael P. Dennehy, McCain's New Hampshire-based national political director.

"No candidate wants to be the first to go negative," Dennehy said in an interview. "But it will be done, mark my word. It's just a question of when."

[prinzowhales]

Here is that map...

http://www.palestineremembered.com/Acre/Maps/Story573.html

[prinzowhales]

Who is going to ask these wishy-washy snakes in the grass about the $2.3 TRILLION that Rumsfeld announced was unaccounted for in Pentagon accounts on September 10, 2001? Why is being ignored by all of the candidates?!

Here is a map of Palestine with property ownership percentages between Palestinian, Jewish and others shown...Why is the United States supporting the organized theft of Palestinian property by the Zionistas? Why aren''t the candidates being asked this question?

Why are the borders still open? After years of this alleged war on terrorism, not one move has been made to control the border.

Vote against the mainstream hucksters, thieves, corruptionists and liars!

[robertkjjj]

MichaetT302, thanks for that great post where you show that Republicans are more mentally healthy than Democrats. I went to that clearly impartial link%u2026
http://www.gallup.com/poll/102943/Republicans-Report-Much-Better-Mental-Health-Than-Others.aspx
and read it all.
It reveals what I suspected for years. Democrats are unhappy, bitter, angry, and chronically mentally unstable. Mental illness is rampant among liberals. And, because they are mentally ill, they don%u2019t even know it. They have no idea how they appear to the rest of us. It%u2019s sad that most of them do not seek the help they so desperately need.

[michaelt302]

A roundup of Gallup health polls over the past four years finds that Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to report having excellent mental health.
The survey found that 58 percent of Republicans polled reported having excellent mental health. Only 38 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Independents reported the same.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/102943/Republicans-Report-Much-Better-Mental-Health-Than-Others.aspx
The study concluded it was unclear why there was such a strong correlation, but the relationship between party affiliation and mental health was virtually constant even within categories of income, age, gender and other factors.
"The reason the relationship exists between being a Republican and more positive mental health is unknown, and one cannot say whether something about being a Republican causes a person to be more mentally healthy or whether something about being mentally healthy causes a person to choose to become a Republican," the study said.
The study speculated that the fact that Republicans have on average higher incomes than members of others parties could play a factor. But in the study, even Republicans making less than $50,000 a year reported having excellent health far more than Democrats earning the same.
The study was based on interviews with 4,014 American adults who were at least 18 years old, conducted from November 2004 through 2007. The margin of error was 2 percent. (we''ve all known that Liberalism is a Mental Disorder for years now)

[kansas1946]

Mitt brought this on himself. He should have maintained his pro-choice stand instead of having this phoney epiphiny. It is odd that when he was running in a pro-choice state, he was pro-choice, but now when he wants the far-right to support him, he suddenly is anti-choice. 70 to 80pct of Americans do not want Roe overturned, so he is just singing to a very small choir.

[macusweil]

"Can''''t fool anyone but yourselves, liberals."

Hey One_America good one!!

Say, you have to admit the conservatives are pretty good at fooling themselves too.

We find it amazing how a GOP President and Republican Congress out spent the ''tax -n spend'' liberals to create the largest deficit in American history. They increased the red ink 56% to almost 10 trillion. Don''t blame the war, we did not need to invade Iraq when we did, that was not conservative by any standard. Bush should have waited to include all our allies and share the costs. The Brits and all others chipped in less than 10% of the troops.

They simply rushed our forces into the Iraq invasion/occupation before our getting ducks in a row. This is why the occupation has become such a quagmire.

It should have been possible to get in get rid of Saddam and stabilize the country in under 18 months. It was their planning and execution that was pathetic. Keep in mind we had 5x the number of troops to fight the gulf war and there was no occupation.

Truth is the only real conservative in the entire US government is Congressman Ron Paul.

www.ronpaul4all.com

[one_american]

This is an attack by a liberal group, and is most likely orchestrated by the Democrats - probably with the blessing of the Clinton Mafia.

Can''t fool anyone but yourselves, liberals.

[macusweil]

Anyone watch the debate Wed nite?

Mitt looked like biggest phoney. Slick but would not take a stand of his own on anything outside his focus group pre-packaged answers.

Mike Huckabee was pretty sly, he dodged any serious answers with stupid humor. (who would Jesus execute?)

Sadly, Ron Paul was not at the top of his game but the attack by McCain was interesting. Guess John was trying to justify spending the rest of the US treasury to save face in Iraq.

[missingamerica]

Time to buy new batteries for my remotes...I flip the channel whenever I see a political ad, because I know the relationship between them and the truth is tenuous at best.

[three-o-six]

Yes, and when it is over you will only have the baddest meanest Rattlesnake around. Wait till you see how it devours a dumb donkey!