CBS Poll: Mike Huckabee Surging In Iowa

Romney Leads, Ex-Arkansas Governor In Second With 21 Percent; Top Three Democrats Deadlocked

(CBS) 
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side in Iowa, the contest appears also appears to going right down to the wire. None of the top three has firmed up their support yet - about half of those backing each candidate said they could change their minds before caucus night.

Despite that fluidity, there are some clear patterns that show how important it will be for each candidate to turn out certain groups of voters: Women have a strong preference for Clinton, while those under the age of 45 give Obama a double-digit lead. Obama and Clinton are nearly tied for support among first-time caucus-goers, but previous attendees give Edwards a narrow edge over Clinton.

The findings indicate that if older and established voters dominate turnout, the caucuses could be a two-way contest between Clinton and Edwards. If the Obama campaign succeeds in its bid to bring young voters and first-time caucus-goers out on Jan. 3, however, it could leave Iowa with a win and a crucial momentum boost headed into later contests. Doing so will be a challenge: Only a third of possible first-time attendees say they will "definitely" attend the caucuses, compared with six in 10 of previous attendees.

One factor in Obama's favor is that nearly two-thirds of the state's independent voters who plan on voting on Jan. 3 say they'll attend the Democratic caucus. Obama attracts the support of 37 percent of those voters, compared to only 17 percent for Edwards and 15 percent for Clinton.

The priorities of Iowans will also be crucial. Clinton is seen as the most electable in November 2008 by a wide margin. However, Obama is clearly seen as the most likely to bring about change in Washington and Edwards holds a strong edge on the question of who understands the problems of Iowans.

Edwards and Obama may also want to spend time making sure supporters of second-tier candidates see them favorably: Among those favoring other candidates besides them and Clinton, Edwards was the second choice of 30 percent, while Obama was close behind at 27 percent. A supporter of any candidate getting less than 15 percent support on the first count at a caucus is allowed to switch to another candidate or enter an "uncommitted" group.

As contentious as Iowa is, the next state on the campaign calendar, New Hampshire, is far less competitive. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Clinton has 37 percent support, putting her 15 points ahead of Obama. Among Republicans, Romney continues to dominate. He was backed by 34 percent in the poll, while John McCain and Giuliani both trailed at 16 percent. All other candidates were in single digits.

Clinton's support in the Granite State is solid. Though 52 percent of voters say they could change their mind, 62 percent of Clinton supporters "strongly favor" the New York senator and former first lady. As in Iowa, her experience is the top reason people are supporting her.

Many New Hampshire Republicans also have yet to make up their minds, even more so than Democrats. Among likely GOP primary voters, 66 percent said they hadn't made up their minds. Romney, unlike Clinton, has yet to solidify his support - only 31 percent of Romney backers said they had made up their mind. More than half of his supporters have reservations about him or are behind him because they dislike other candidates in the race. And the poll indicates Romney's religion could be a problem: more than one-in-four voters said they know someone who would not vote for a Mormon candidate.

---

CBS News and The New York Times conducted telephone interviews with 1273 likely caucus-goers in Iowa November 2-11, 2007 and 719 likely primary voters in New Hampshire November 9-12, 2007. The error due to sampling could be 4 points for Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, 5 points for Iowa Republican caucus-goers, and likely New Hampshire Democratic voters, and 6 points for likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, sampling was done using standard RDD probability selection processes. In Iowa, the sample was drawn from three sources: the state of Iowa’s registered voter list (matched to phone numbers where possible), an RDD phone sample with numbers that matched numbers on the registered voter list eliminated (in order to sample phone numbers unavailable on the state list), and a small cell phone sample.

Results were weighted by probabilities of selection and by demographic characteristics to reflect the New Hampshire adult population and the Iowa registered voter list. To create the probable electorates for each state, registered voters were also weighted by their intention of voting, their attention to the campaign, and factors related to their past voting behavior. Likely caucus-goers in Iowa represent 17% of the registered voter population; likely voters in New Hampshire represent 59% of the state’s registered voter population.

[chirumbolo]

Sounds like Clinton remains the one to beat!

[hawksprings]

I wonder if Hillary has submitted the questions to be asked at the next debate yet?

[antoniof123]

I know one thing after what the Republicans have done I will be voting Democrat for a long time to come.

[radlandon]

Huckabee is rising FAST! Conservatives are joining his campaign in boatloads....Get ready for PRESIDENT HUCKABEE!

[radlandon]

Huckabee is in 2nd place and hasn''t spent much money....Romney has to buy his votes!

[lonewackodot]

Huckabee encouraged Mexico to build a consulate in his state, and they use that outpost to give ID cards to illegal aliens which they use to open bank accounts. And, business is booming, with thousands of ID cards having been distributed since April:

http://lonewacko.com/blog/archives/007230.html

Please go to Huckabee''s appearances, ask him the question on this video, and then upload his response:

youtube.com/watch?v=T5Dp7FaKIJo

We need to do the job the MSM refuses to do.

BJ the ever-loving [pun intended] devoted husband may be somewhat upset when the boys come down hard on her.[him?] He''s always been such a beacon of true love to his beloved. Drat, such lovely people. For shame.

[radlandon]

That''s impressive...Huckabee came out of nowhere. I hear that people are joining his campaign because they now think he can win. It looks good for Huckabee!

[kwbagwel]

Mike Huckabee will over take Romney in Iowa which will boost him into South Carolina! Read about him here http://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=VerticalDay.Home&l=50F49E7D03868E58F54AA1ED674B0C61

[radlandon]

Guliani = too liberal
Romney = buys votes
Thompson = dead campaign

Huckabee = WINNER!

[pureandsensi]

100% 4 Huckabee!!!

[radlandon]

Not only is Huckabee rising in the polls, but he''s the only one who can beat Hillary!

VOTE HUCKABEE!

[nldev-2009]

Message is important than money, Mike proves it

[jsilver2th]

Huckabee can beat Romney as the process moves forward those towards the back of the pack will have supporters go for Huckabee to nip Mitt in the bud.

Obama supporters lobbied to keep the People''s Choice Steven Colbert off of the ballot in S. Carolina so as word of this gets out he might as well go back to Illinois.

Watch Edwards to pull from the pack.

[radlandon]

People will pick Huckabee over Romney. Mike Huckabee is a regular guy with strong moral character. He''s got an incredible message and supports the fair tax.

Money isn''t going to buy this election....

Huckabee''s personality and experience will!

[stahlgrau330]

This is just more proof that the American people are tired of politicians who ''buy'' votes, change their stand on issues dependant on the polls, and have to ''buy'' votes with slick ad campaigns. Mike Huckabee stands on the one thing that ALL candidates should be judged by...MESSAGE!!

In just over a year, I plan on being at Mike''s victory party.

GO MIKE GO!!!

www.hucksarmy.com

[jrt18-2009]

Huckabee is awful. Have you seen the video of him begging the Dems to send him tax increases? You know you have a loser when one of his biggest stump subjects is how he beat obesity, as if that somehow qualifies him to be Commander in Chief. In a WSJ editorial last week, John Fund quoted an Arkansas GOP official as saying that Huckabee is responsible for destroying the Republican party in Arkansas. He kept all of Clinton''s criminal pals in their state offices after he was elected, and retained most of his policies. Huckabee is a Republican in name only. He is a terrible candidate.

[rjnnc]

the concerns that I have about Huckabee is that his past is going to come out, when he took office as governor of Ak he kept almost all of Bill Clinton''s staff and he was a strong supporter of illegal immigration, even told his oppositon that Toyota would not build there if the state opposed immigration because they would feel like Ak did not want people of different countries or colors there. I think he is going to have to hope his past record is not exposed to the public. other than that I am sure he will make a good leader, just wish all the candiates could back up what they are telling us now with their actual voting history.

[excoachken]

Enough of you L. Ron Paul robots from the Church of Redneck, already. If it takes a racist like him to end a war, have you really ended a war?

[radlandon]

Huckabee would be a great president... I learned a lot about him at:

www.mikehuckabee.com

He seems very rational and is starting to raise money fast!

[rjnnc]

You are right JRT18, I just researched and Huckabee is another Democrat posing as a conservative, He is full of lies and worse than Romney on flip-flopping

[rjnnc]

excoachKen? who are you endorsing, I am still trying to decide but whomever you represent as a candiate then I do not want to be associated with him or her, you are a closed minded person, I think we all should be able to share our thoughts, without ridicule

[radlandon]

Why do the Ron Paul people sound sooooo bitter?

Huckabee stands for optimism! This is a great nation and Huckabee will be a great leader!

Ron Paul supporters need to drink some coffee and cheer up!

[bayonet-06]

What a disappointment... From the title of the article on Drudge "Huckabee poll surprise", I thought there was going to be some real movement for Huck. But the real surprise is after going to RealClearPolitics, to learn that we are having a Huck-gasm over a movement of only two points?!?!? From the looks of Huckabee''s falling donations, ya''ll had better get back to raising money or else ya''ll will be hoping someone buys you a bus ticket back to Hope.

[denn034]

Much ado about nothing. Everyone knows Hillary will win the Democratic nomination.

[dlbarber1954]

Another horse race story. Krimeny.

[dlbarber1954]

Another horse race story. How about some coverage of the issues?

[pureandsensi]

100% 4 Huckabee!!!

[wtheronjones]

Who asked all the campaign workers post on this site?

The Mike Huckabee boosters are pretty transparent. "Hi I like Mike, he is X, Y, & Z! Here''s a website!"

The Ron Paul boosters are kind of ridiculous. Be honest, you''re not even voting in Republican primaries because you don''t want to register as a Republican. I like the strict Constitutionalist-ness, but come on. Any other day of the week, you guys wouldn''t touch him w/ a 10 foot pole & in 2 years, you''d be calling him the Anti-Christ for him being anti gun control(begin pro Constitution & all) & cutting federal funding for your pet government program.

[poopbreath]

Huckabee needs to withdraw from the race and endorse Dr. Ron Paul. Vote for Ron Paul for president.

[quatrops]

Paul? Huckabee? Romney? The Ground Zero Hero? It makes NO DIFFERENCE who the Republicans nominate for ''08. Bush-the-Incompetent and proto-fascist Cheney (nominal leaders of the neo-con cabal)have so trashed the traditional GOP it will be a decade before Republicans can even THINK about a presidency.

The failure of the neo-cons to plan ahead for post-invasion Iraq . . their failure to plan ahead for almost anything (including, sadly, the future of America) . . is indicative of the fact that they KNEW America was going to catch on to their shell game. They are probably surprised it lasted as long as it did!

They and their corporate sponsors have lined their pockets with trillions looted from our treasury, so get used to it! America woke up! Hopefully, the traditional, conservative GOP can rebuild itself eventually, but certainly not by ''08, and probably not ''12

[radlandon]

Huckabee has achieved 2nd place without any money...his message is surging across Iowa!

Romney has bought all his votes and Huckabee is about to take the lead.

[bayonet-06]

FALSE ALARM - Strategic Vision has just gone public with their own poll showing Romney still firmly leading with 30%, while Huck lags far behind at 19%. Funnier still is Giuliani who is fighting for his life with a miserable 12% (the fading Thompson has 11%.) However that said, it appears that Giuliani will shortly be doing good to get 12% in the polls once Judith Regan starts tearing him a new hole.

[wtheronjones]

Dr. Ron Paul, save me from your followers!

[bayonet-06]

Will somebody please give the Huckabee/Paul supporters directions to the MOTHERSHIP?!?!?! I''m getting tired of the spamming, and annoying pieces of paper left under my windshield wipers. Seriously, these guys are like Jehovah''s Witnesses on speed...

[bayonet-06]

(From Townhall.com,) And will the real Huckabee please stand up...

More important, Huckabee revealed an enduring weakness as glaring as that other Arkansas governor''s fondness for women. Huckabee seems to love loot and has a dismissive attitude toward ethics, campaign finance rules and propriety in general. Since that first, failed campaign, the ethical questions have multiplied.

In the 1992 contest with Bumpers, Huckabee used campaign funds to pay himself as his own media consultant. Other payments went to the family babysitter.

In his successful 1994 run for lieutenant governor, he set up a nonprofit curtain known as Action America so he could give speeches for money without having to disclose the names of his benefactors. He failed to report that campaign travel payments were for the use of his own personal plane.

After he became governor in 1996, he raked in tens of thousands of dollars in gifts, including gifts from people he later appointed to prestigious state commissions.


In the governor''s office, his grasp never exceeded his reach. Furniture he''d received to doll up his office was carted out with him when he left, after he''d crushed computer hard drives so nobody could ever get a peek behind the curtain of the Huckabee administration.

[wakeupusa2]

Please everyone - there will not be an election next year. This country will be in martial law and the constitution will be in the circular bin. Bank on the Bush Administration going NO WHERE! Bush is already a dictator based on the dismantling of the constitution. So, you can continue to pull for or against Giuliani or Clinton or Paul, it won''t matter, there won''t be an election - this Administration has no plans on transferring power - ever.

[radlandon]

Ron Paul supporters are always so angry.

Huckabee has a bright future ahead and I''m joining in to help him.

[j-whitman]

tylenol6,,,, How about more on the Giulaini ???

Judith Reagan is filing a lawsuit against Murdoch''s Newscorp who told her to lie to federal investigators about her affair with Kerik,, to protect Rudy

So much for Fox News credibility

[j-whitman]

tylenol6,,,, Excuse me -- That should have been Judith Regan

[merlgrey]

dr. ron paul keeps it simple. the constitution should be obeyed by those who swear to uphold it. he is the only candidate who can keep that claim and has the history to prove it. the constitution has been thrown out the window in washington for the last 30-40 years, maybe more. more so every year. it is truly the ''code'' for washington like you have to follow the buliding code when you make any improvements to your property. do the inspectors ever let you skate on unsatisfactory work that doesnt meet code? so why should washington be allowed to? they shouldnt. they are all humans like you and me bent on power. go ron paul!

[howcould]

Bill Richardsons the best Democratic candidate.

[howcould]

I don''t know about the Republicans. I stopped following them a long time ago.

[j-whitman]

merlgrey,,,, Forget about Ron Paul dude ----- After what politicians with an "R" behind their names have done to our country & the world,, American''s will remember republicans for decades ----- Cindy Sheehan has a better chance than any republican

[howcould]

Clintons a dynasty, Obama''s gonna let his wife take over, and Edwards hairs too pretty.

[merlgrey]

j-whitman-

agreed with what the pedophile neoconpublicans have done. its a totl sham. but so are the high level dems too! thats why ive voted third part or write in candidates for the last 4 pres elections and am a reg indy. but i''m gonna register as a repub this year to try to get ron nominated. it''s too bad he has the stigma of the repub badge. they tried to keep him out of the debates because his philosophy is so misaligned with the neocons.

[radlandon]

Huckabee is very optimistic about our future. His joy for the country is reflected in his growing popularity.

[radlandon]

Wow...Mike Huckabee is surging!

[condumism]

radlandon: Mike Huckabee is surging!

Only because Repiglicons realize that their party of fools has nothing to offer the USA except more NeoconUSism. Forget about this Neocon Huckalberry, he has nothing to offer the over 67% of US that want change in the USA!

[frb01]

Bill Richardson has the most diverse experience of any candidate. If Barack Obama continues to give speeches like the one in Iowa last Sat, he will close the gap in short order.