Life Gets Better In Baghdad

After Bloody Start To 2007, Civilian, Military Deaths Drop Sharply

(CBS/AP)  Rocket and mortar attacks have fallen to their lowest level in nearly two years. Civilian deaths have dropped sharply since summer. Shoppers are venturing out, even in Baghdad's most dangerous neighborhoods.

Iraq's capital is by no means yet safe. But the trend toward better security is indisputable.

In short, the traumatized residents of this sprawling city are experiencing their first sense of normalcy after years of bombings, kidnappings and wholesale slaughter. Iraqi officials are speaking optimistically about reopening streets and gradually lifting the nighttime curfew to encourage public confidence.

"The sound of an explosion has become a rare and extraordinary thing. Before it was normal," said Mohammed Mghamish, a 41-year-old father of six in the Shiite stronghold of Sadr City. "I am not worried like before."

The questions now: What caused the drop in violence? And how long can it last?

In one troubling sign, the security improvements have not been matched by any political agreements among Shiites and Sunnis. U.S. commanders are still hesitant to proclaim victory against Sunni and Shiite extremists in the city, and armed groups such as al Qaeda in Iraq, while bloodied, have not been destroyed.

Many people in Baghdad still fear venturing beyond their own neighborhoods. Others fear the influence of hardline religious parties that have gained power.

"Things are getting better, but for women the situation is the same," said Hiba Hussein, 30, a Sunni woman lawyer in northern Baghdad. "I was forced to wear a head scarf because of the Islamic attitudes on the street. Women have lost their freedom."

All that typifies the emerging picture in Iraq - a country that is less violent than a year ago, but still very far from the democratic ideal the United States once sought.

Still, today's calm is a far cry - and vast improvement - from the terror that gripped this city of 6 million people a year ago, as the country spiraled toward all-out sectarian civil war.

Then, armed bands of Shiite and Sunni gunmen roamed the streets, seizing people at illegal checkpoints and dumping their bodies by the dozens.

The sounds of car bombs, rocket and mortar fire reverberated through the streets. Iraqis, huddled in their homes, turning to Shiite militias and Sunni extremists to provide protection. Hundreds of thousands fled what amounted to ethnic cleansing.

Last December, 2,172 Iraqi civilians died violently, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press - most in Baghdad. But after a spike in June, violence in Baghdad began to ebb. In August, civilian deaths nationwide stood at 1,791, according to AP figures, and they fell to 878 in September and 750 in October.

As of Sunday, 189 civilians had died violently so far in November.

U.S. military deaths also are on the decline, although 2007 has been the deadliest year of the war for the U.S. military overall. After early spikes, deaths have fallen steadily from 101 in June to 65 in September and 39 in October. As of Monday, at least 16 U.S. service members have died so far this month.

In addition, the U.S. military says rocket and mortar attacks nationwide have fallen to their lowest level since February 2006. In Baghdad, such attacks rose from 139 in January to 224 in June - before falling to 53 last month.

"I think it has turned a corner," Gen. Richard Cody, vice chief of staff of the Army, told the AP on Monday. "These things take time, though ... We have to have patience ... Certainly the enemy has patience. We have to have patience."

The reasons for the violence drop are less clear.

U.S. commanders cite the surge of nearly 30,000 troops sent by President Bush earlier this year. They also cite a change in tactics, moving more troops out of large camps and into neighborhoods to keep extremists from returning.

"The surge gave us combat fire to reach out and touch the enemy," said Maj. Gen. Rick Lynch, commander of U.S. troops along Baghdad's southern rim. "We've denied the enemy those sanctuaries, and we couldn't have done that without the surge."

But the surge's success was also due to a revolt against al Qaeda by some Sunni Arabs - first in Anbar province and later in Baghdad. Fearing al Qaeda's brutal tactics, many fighters from rival insurgent groups such as the Islamic Army in Iraq began cooperating with U.S. forces to drive the extremists from their neighborhoods and villages.

In addition, many Sunnis came to feel that Shiite religious parties posed a greater threat to their long-term Sunni interests than did U.S. forces. In part, that calculation was driven by harsh facts: Shiite militias drove tens of thousands of Sunnis from their homes last year, often with the tacit approval of Shiite-led government forces.

At the same time, Shiite attitudes toward the Mahdi Army began to change. Gunmen were seen less as protectors than as thugs, whose criminal activity drew U.S. attacks. That prompted the head of the biggest militia, Muqtada al-Sadr, to order a six-month stand down in August.

U.S. commanders were quick to exploit the changes, organizing about 70,000 Sunni fighters into neighborhood watch groups and then working to integrate them into government forces.

"Now the (ex-insurgents) are providing the security," said Amir Mohammed, 47, a Sunni merchant in the western Baghdad neighborhood of Amariyah. "Shops are open until late at night. The living standard of the people in the area is lifted."

Yet the Shiite-led government has been leery of bringing its former enemies into the police and army, fearing Sunnis could turn against it once U.S. forces have gone.

Suspicion between Sunnis and Shiites runs deep - and could take years, if ever, to end.

Ahmed Kamil, 40, a teacher from Azamiyah, once a Sunni insurgent stronghold, typifies such continued fears.

"The people of Azamiyah were held responsible for the sectarian killings committed by gunmen in their area," Kamil said. "That is why I don't feel safe when I leave my area - just because I come from Azamiyah."

[jetranger7]

Too badd all the money spent so far hasn''t improved living conditions over there for them, still places without electricity or running water, or decent health care facilities !!!

[libsluvsuvs]

Posted by noloyalisti at 12:21 PM : Nov 13, 2007
+ report abuse

*****

come on admit it! you would suck co ck for oil...

consider this..you suck bush''s and those CEO''s coc k everytime you pump and pay for that gas

[libsluvsuvs]

They can take a break... if no US soldiers die before 2008, there were stil 35 more than last year.

Regards,

Posted by Nancy_Naive at 03:09 PM : Nov 13, 2007
+ report abuse

****

they??? maybe you mean "we", osama gave you your 2 week vacation..is it with pay?

[libsluvsuvs]

The pace of the war is entirely at the leisure of the insurgents.

Regards,

Posted by Nancy_Naive at 03:04 PM : Nov 13, 2007
+ report abuse

********

actually the pace of war depends on how much you can embolden the insurgency.

[jraf766]

Good job for my brothers in harms way!

Im happy that everything is getting better!

[noloyalisti]

The lessening of violence, if really true, (remember these reports are on media from American propaganda sources) is good news only for the neocons.

Their plan to use our tax money to take over Middle East oil for their CEO buddies is working like a charm. They have a large amount of the American sheeple fooled into thinking there is actually a war on terror. Others believe the government actually gives a *** about the American people. Still others are enraptured about the US government policy of genocide against unarmed countries.

[prinzowhales]

Its easy to turn off the spigot of violence if you control the valve. The war of tension as was played out in Italy under OPERATION GLADIO to villify the Italian Left, the ''dirty wars'' in Algeria and Argentina as well as the bombings orchestrated by British intelligence agents in the IRA are models for the kind of ''dirty war'' played out of late in Iraq.

There is no real reason for the end of the suicide bombing campaign...nothing approaching the amounts lost in the unguarded Iraqi armories after ''Mission Accomplished'' have been recovered and there has been no change in the desire of Iraqis for Americans to get the ''ell out of their country. The ''surge'' while generating a whole lot of smoke...did not accomplish much militarily....but as Karl Rove noted, ''We create realities''.