Poll Shows Seals As Likely Nominee Against Kirk

(The Politico)  Marketing executive Dan Seals holds a commanding lead over former Clinton administration aide Jay Footlik by 52 points for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), according to a poll released by his campaign.

The poll found that 58 percent of likely primary voters would vote for Seals, while only 6 percent preferred Footlik.

Seals, by virtue of his Congressional campaign last year, tallied higher name identification: 69 percent of respondents recognized his name, while only 24 percent could identify Footlik.

The poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group surveyed 404 likely Democratic primary voters between November 5-7.

"We recognize that we still have a way to go, but I am very pleased by the strong showing of support, and it's clear that our '06 supporters still stand with us today,” Seals campaign manager Patrick Mogge said in a statement.

Footlik’s campaign disputed the numbers, arguing that the gap will close once voters become more familiar with Footlik’s record. Footlik began advertising on cable television last week with a biographical spot.

“Dan Seals spent $2 million on a campaign last year,” said Footlik’s pollster Craig Smith. “He basically starts out with a $2 million name ID advantage, and this poll reflects that. As that gap in spending narrows, so will this race.”

Both candidates have been prodigious fundraisers so far, though Seals outraised Footlik in the third fundraising quarter. At the end of September, Seals banked $499,000 on-hand, while Footlik had $414,000. Most of Footlik’s donations have come from outside the district, largely from donors in the Jewish community.