Money Woes Keep GOP Worried About 2008
This story was written by Jeanne Cummings.
Senate Republicans are in trouble, and last week's Democratic victories in Kentucky and Virginia suggest their challenges may be steeper than even they thought.
The day after Republican Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher was tossed out of office, one of his biggest political patrons launched ads to protect himself from the fallout.
Who was he?
No less than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
The off-year elections and a steady drumbeat of negative public opinion polls indicate the poisonous mix of issues and voter discontent that wiped out Republican majorities a year ago isn't abating.
Worse still, the new minority is in a much weaker position to defend itself.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, a perennial fundraising laggard, is falling further behind its Democratic counterpart with every passing quarter.
At this point in 2005, the NRSC had raised $28.2 million, compared to the $31.5 million banked by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
According to the latest reports, the NRSC raised $23.4 million - nearly $5 million less - during the same three quarters this year.
Meanwhile, the DSCC has raised $42 million - a $10 million increase over its 2005 third-quarter total.
The cash-in-the-bank figures are painful, too.
At this point in 2005, the NRSC had $9.4 million; today it has $8.3 million. The Democrats' third-quarter cash balance in 2005 was $19 million; this cycle, it's $23 million.
Unless Republicans can pick up the pace, they face going into a hostile 2008 election with less money and more contested seats than they had last year.
Of the 11 Senate seats rated as competitive by Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, only two belong to Democrats, and neither is considered to be in dire jeopardy.
Of the remaining nine Republican seats, five are relatively safe, three are toss-ups and one - the Virginia seat being vacated by Republican Sen. John Warner - is essentially lost.
Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, a popular former governor, is running for that open Senate seat against fellow former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the Republican presidential contest this summer after failing to raise even $200,000 for his candidacy in his home state.
Warner is ahead in the polls, and any doubt about his cruise to the Senate was erased last week when Virginia voters threw out the state Senate Republican majority.
The anti-GOP sentiment that has settled into the Old Dominion has now moved the once reliably Republican state into the presidential purple column.
The good news for Republicans is that most of their incumbents facing tough reelections are stockpiling cash.
McConnell had $7 million in the bank on Sept. 30. Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman had $5 million. New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu had banked nearly $3 million.
But public opinion polls are cutting against them, with challengers leading in some of these states and incumbents holding tenuous leads in others.
And some Democratic challengers are keeping pace. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) has $3 million in the bank; her Democratic challenger, Rep. Tom Allen, has $2 million. This is Collins' first serious challenge, and the timing could be fatal.
A moderate from a small state where the war in Iraq and President Bush are highly unpopular, her profile mirrors that of former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), who lost his seat last year.?
"If they can wrap Bush around Chafee's neck, why not Collins?" asks Duffy.
Finally, changing campaign tactics could force some Republicans to burn through their cash more quickly this cycle, making them vulnerable to the kind of last-minute strategic spending by DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) that finished off some of their colleagues in the final days or weeks of the 2006 campaign.
The provocateur at this early stage isn't Schumer.
It's MoveOn.org, a liberal online organization which softened up Republican incumbents for the Democrats in 2006 by running early television attack ads.
Most Republicans ignored the commercials and held their cash.
But the attacks took their toll and the MoveOn campaign is credited with expanding the Democratic wins and forcing some razor-thin Republican victories.
Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce, a 2006 target who narrowly escaped defeat, opted to resign this year rather than undergo another bloody reelection.
This cycle, MoveOn is already at work.
In May, it ran ads critical of the pro-Iraq-war positioning of Republican Sens. Gordon Smith of Oregon and Sununu of New Hampshire, both Democratic targets. McConnell's war position came under fire in MoveOn ads in September and October of 2007.
Those commercials were largely aimed at pushing Republicans to change their votes on war-ending resolutions on Capitol Hill.
MoveOn officials said that next year they will launch an ad campaign meant to influence voters in the ballot booth on Election Day.
That means McConnell can expect more incoming MoveOn attack ads, and that helps explain why he's moving aggressively to shore up his reelection.
A veteran of more than 20 years in the Senate, McConnell wasn't supposed to be on the list of endangered Republicans.
But the Bluegrass backlash against his ally Fletcher last week sent up warning flares.
To be sure, Fletcher's campaign was beset with charges of political cronyism in the State Capitol.
But a generally anti-Republican mood and unhappiness with Bush added fuel to the voter revolt.
McConnell appeared in ads for Fletcher and campaigned for him, but the governor still lost his reelection by nearly 20 percentage points.
Within days, McConnell put up a 60-second ad reminding Kentuckians of his service and his influence as leader of the Republican caucus.
Democrats are considering their own commercials that would try to turn those assets into liabilities by linking McConnell not just to Fletcher but to President Bush and the war policy that the minority leader has defended on Capitol Hill.
The pre-emptive move by McConnell may or may not work. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.) ran through her campaign cash responding to MoveOn's ads early in the 2006 election.
She lost her seat anyway.
The Politico Senate Republicans are in trouble, and last week's Democratic victories in Kentucky and Virginia suggest their challenges may be steeper than even they thought.
The day after Republican Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher was tossed out of office, one of his biggest political patrons launched ads to protect himself from the fallout.
Who was he?
No less than Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).
The off-year elections and a steady drumbeat of negative public opinion polls indicate the poisonous mix of issues and voter discontent that wiped out Republican majorities a year ago isn't abating.
Worse still, the new minority is in a much weaker position to defend itself.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, a perennial fundraising laggard, is falling further behind its Democratic counterpart with every passing quarter.
At this point in 2005, the NRSC had raised $28.2 million, compared to the $31.5 million banked by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
According to the latest reports, the NRSC raised $23.4 million - nearly $5 million less - during the same three quarters this year.
Meanwhile, the DSCC has raised $42 million - a $10 million increase over its 2005 third-quarter total.
The cash-in-the-bank figures are painful, too.
At this point in 2005, the NRSC had $9.4 million; today it has $8.3 million. The Democrats' third-quarter cash balance in 2005 was $19 million; this cycle, it's $23 million.
Unless Republicans can pick up the pace, they face going into a hostile 2008 election with less money and more contested seats than they had last year.
Of the 11 Senate seats rated as competitive by Jennifer Duffy, an analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, only two belong to Democrats, and neither is considered to be in dire jeopardy.
Of the remaining nine Republican seats, five are relatively safe, three are toss-ups and one - the Virginia seat being vacated by Republican Sen. John Warner - is essentially lost.
Virginia Democrat Mark Warner, a popular former governor, is running for that open Senate seat against fellow former Gov. Jim Gilmore, who dropped out of the Republican presidential contest this summer after failing to raise even $200,000 for his candidacy in his home state.
Warner is ahead in the polls, and any doubt about his cruise to the Senate was erased last week when Virginia voters threw out the state Senate Republican majority.
The anti-GOP sentiment that has settled into the Old Dominion has now moved the once reliably Republican state into the presidential purple column.
The good news for Republicans is that most of their incumbents facing tough reelections are stockpiling cash.
McConnell had $7 million in the bank on Sept. 30. Minnesota Sen. Norm Coleman had $5 million. New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu had banked nearly $3 million.
But public opinion polls are cutting against them, with challengers leading in some of these states and incumbents holding tenuous leads in others.
And some Democratic challengers are keeping pace. Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R) has $3 million in the bank; her Democratic challenger, Rep. Tom Allen, has $2 million. This is Collins' first serious challenge, and the timing could be fatal.
A moderate from a small state where the war in Iraq and President Bush are highly unpopular, her profile mirrors that of former Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R), who lost his seat last year.?
"If they can wrap Bush around Chafee's neck, why not Collins?" asks Duffy.
Finally, changing campaign tactics could force some Republicans to burn through their cash more quickly this cycle, making them vulnerable to the kind of last-minute strategic spending by DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) that finished off some of their colleagues in the final days or weeks of the 2006 campaign.
The provocateur at this early stage isn't Schumer.
It's MoveOn.org, a liberal online organization which softened up Republican incumbents for the Democrats in 2006 by running early television attack ads.
Most Republicans ignored the commercials and held their cash.
But the attacks took their toll and the MoveOn campaign is credited with expanding the Democratic wins and forcing some razor-thin Republican victories.
Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce, a 2006 target who narrowly escaped defeat, opted to resign this year rather than undergo another bloody reelection.
This cycle, MoveOn is already at work.
In May, it ran ads critical of the pro-Iraq-war positioning of Republican Sens. Gordon Smith of Oregon and Sununu of New Hampshire, both Democratic targets. McConnell's war position came under fire in MoveOn ads in September and October of 2007.
Those commercials were largely aimed at pushing Republicans to change their votes on war-ending resolutions on Capitol Hill.
MoveOn officials said that next year they will launch an ad campaign meant to influence voters in the ballot booth on Election Day.
That means McConnell can expect more incoming MoveOn attack ads, and that helps explain why he's moving aggressively to shore up his reelection.
A veteran of more than 20 years in the Senate, McConnell wasn't supposed to be on the list of endangered Republicans.
But the Bluegrass backlash against his ally Fletcher last week sent up warning flares.
To be sure, Fletcher's campaign was beset with charges of political cronyism in the State Capitol.
But a generally anti-Republican mood and unhappiness with Bush added fuel to the voter revolt.
McConnell appeared in ads for Fletcher and campaigned for him, but the governor still lost his reelection by nearly 20 percentage points.
Within days, McConnell put up a 60-second ad reminding Kentuckians of his service and his influence as leader of the Republican caucus.
Democrats are considering their own commercials that would try to turn those assets into liabilities by linking McConnell not just to Fletcher but to President Bush and the war policy that the minority leader has defended on Capitol Hill.
The pre-emptive move by McConnell may or may not work. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.) ran through her campaign cash responding to MoveOn's ads early in the 2006 election.
She lost her seat anyway.
Popular in Politics
- Romney condemns "breach of trust" in Washington 193 Comments
- Officials on Benghazi: "We made mistakes, but without malice" 359 Comments
- IRS targeting overlooked biggest soft money groups 70 Comments
- Where is the Benghazi cover-up Republicans promised? 419 Comments
- For GOP, scandals could be an electoral plus - or minus 335 Comments
- Republicans use IRS scandal to tar Obamacare 47 Comments
- Ousted IRS chief: "I did not mislead" the American people
- Why Obama should worry that current scandals might impact 2016
Unlike Clinton and the so-called GOP frontrunner, Giuliani, Dr. Paul fights for the right of an innocent, unborn child. He believes the right to life is at the heart of the American ideals of liberty. His professional and legislative record demonstrates his strong commitment to this pro-life principle. In 40 years of medical practice, he never once considered performing an abortion, nor did he ever find abortion necessary to save the life of a pregnant woman. In Congress, he authored legislation that seeks to define life as beginning at conception (HR 1094). He is also the prime sponsor of HR 300, which would negate the effect of Roe v Wade by removing the ability of federal courts to interfere with state legislation to protect life. This is a practical, direct approach to ending federal court tyranny which threatens our constitutional republic and has caused the deaths of 45 million of the unborn. He also authored HR 1095, which prevents federal funds to be used for population control. Many other GOP candidates, except Giuliani, talk about being pro-life. Ron Paul took direct action to restore protection for the unborn. As an OB/GYN doctor, he delivered over 4,000 babies. That experience made him an unshakable foe of abortion. Many of you may have his book, Challenge To Liberty, which champions the idea that there cannot be liberty in a society unless the rights of all innocents are protected. Ron Paul respects the dignity of human life.
Like Ron Paul, I believe the biggest threat to your privacy is the government. We must drastically limit the ability of government to collect and store data regarding a citizens'' personal matters. We must stop the move toward a national ID card system (e.g., The Real ID Act). Under this new Law, states are currently issuing new driver''s licenses embedded with standard identifier data (RFID chips). Although, many states are refusing to comply. A national ID with new tracking technologies means we''re heading into an Orwellian world of no privacy. Ron Paul was one of the few members of Congess who voted against the Real ID Act. Also, under current medical privacy protection rules, which Ron Paul also opposed, insurance companies and other entities have access to your personal medical information. Finally, there''s the so-called Patriot Act, which Congressman, Ron Paul also voted against. As originally proposed, it expanded the federal government''s ability to use wiretaps without judicial oversight; allowed nationwide search warrants non-specific to any given location, nor subject to any local judicial oversight; made it far easier for the government to monitor private Internet usage; authorized sneak and peek warrants enabling federal authorities to search a person''s home, office, or personal property without that person''s knowledge; and required libraries to turn over records of books read by patrons. Ron Paul sponsored a Bill to overturn the Patriot Act.
If he is elected President, Ron Paul will work to abolish the Federal Reserve System as well as the IRS, returning our country to the Gold Standard. He believes, as I do, that our current Income Tax System is unconstitutional, because it is a direct tax that is not equally apportioned as The Constitution requires. Whenever taxes are raised by the federal government, it should be done as The Constitution does require--in an indirect way, which is equally apportioned. This system would benefit all of us, creating more individual wealth, and allowing us to make more decisions for ourselves about our lives. As President, Ron Paul will also work to abolish the Federal Reserve, a group of private banks, run by unelected officials, which loans our government unbacked money which they are allowed to essentially print out of thin air, making each dollar in your pocket worth less all the time, and increasing our national debt to these banks. Worse still. Most of our debt is owned by China (25%) and Saudi Arabia who finance our runaway military spending overseas. This is a threat to our nation. We need to bring our troops home from overseas, and use the trillions we would save thereby to reduce our debt, and to re-invigorate our currency. We can use this money to ensure that Social Security and other essential programs will still be solvent in the future. Vote for Ron Paul. He''s published three books on the topic of sound economics. ronpaullibrary.org
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee Chairman, Congressman Ron Paul on November 8th, and had to face some tough criticism concerning the fact that the Fed has been increasing the money supply while at the same time refusing to raise the Prime Interest Rate in order to curb inflation and devaluation of the Dollar. Paul accused the Federal Reserve of "robbery," telling Bernanke, "There''s a dollar crisis out there and people''s money is being stolen," Paul said. "People who have saved, they''re being robbed. I mean, if you have a devaluation of the dollar at 10 percent, people have been robbed of 10 percent." Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke attempted to dispel that notion by explaining, "If somebody has their wealth in dollars and they''re going to buy consumer goods in dollars, then the only effect it has on their buying power is that it makes imported goods more expensive." Paul disagreed, reminding Bernanke, "Yeah, but not if you''re elderly and you have your wealth in CDs. Their cost of living is going-up no matter what your CPI says," adding finally, "Their cost of living is going up, and they''re hurting. And that''s why the people of this country are very upset."
Like Ron Paul, I share our Founders'' belief that in a free society each citizen must have the right to keep and bear arms. They ratified the Second Amendment knowing that this right is the guardian of every other right, and they all would be horrified by the proliferation of unconstitutional legislation that prevents Law-abiding Americans from exercising this right. Congressman, Paul has always supported the Second Amendment and these are some of the Bills he introduced in the current Congress to help restore respect for it: H.R. 1096 includes provisions repealing the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act and the Federal Firearms License Reform Act, two invasive and unconstitutional Bills. H.R. 1897 would end the ban on carrying a firearm in the National Park System, restoring Americans'' ability to protect themselves in potentially hazardous situations. H.R. 3305 would allow pilots and specially assigned personnel to carry firearms in order to protect airline passengers, possibly preventing future 9/11-style attacks. H.R. 1146 would end our membership in the United Nations, protecting us from their attempts to tax our guns or disarm us entirely. In the past, he introduced legislation to repeal the so-called assault weapons ban before its 2004 sunset, and he has opposed all attempts to reinstate it. Congessman, Paul also recently opposed H.R. 2640, which would allow government-appointed psychiatrists to ban veterans experiencing any form of PTSD.
Most people can see right through the prejudice CBS News obviously has towards Ron Paul. In the few times they''ve covered him at all, I''m suprised they didn''t have one of their graphics artists Photoshop some devil horns on top of his head in that worst ever photograph they always use of him. CBS obviously thinks that if they pretend Paul isn''t a top-tier GOP candidate, then their readers and viewers will eventually think so too. Whenever they are forced to do a story on Paul, because some other mainstream source is covering him for some reason, the fact that their editors work overtime to slant their stories in such a way as to either marginalize his accomplishment, or present Paul in the most negative light possible, is obvious to anyone with a modicum of intelligence. "What about their polls?," you ask? As far as the CBS News poll is concerned, they don''t even include Paul on the list of GOP candidates which pollees can choose from, and then afterwards, report to you that Paul doesn''t even rank in their final tally. Ron Paul is getting major grass roots support nationwide. He has over 62,380 meetup group members in 1,175 Groups from 1,004 cities nationwide, with another 7,197 people more folks just waiting to hear when a new meetup group will start-up near them. He''s won ALL of the viewer phone-in polls in ALL of the GOP debates he''s been in, and has raised more money ($4.2 million) in one day than any other GOP candidate ever. Go Ron Go!
People have gotten wise to the fact that vaccines are contaminated with DNA fragments, viruses, fungus, mercury, and a cocktail of other poisonous toxins. Fleets of reputable studies have been published globally detailing the wide swaths of destruction caused by vaccines, including autism. So, now the establishment is on the offensive, attempting to bully us into submission. Big Pharma is one of the biggest businesses in the world. It is among the top three purchasers of advertisement in print, TV and radio. Thay have major pull. President Bush recently vetoed a Bill which would have forced Big Pharma to remove mercury from vaccines. If that''s not bad enough, parts of the so-called Patriot Act contains provisions that essentialy removes the spectre of civil liability against Big Pharma with respect to vaccines. This was done under the quise of protecting Big Pharma in case they had to quickly develop a vaccine to combat some form of biological terrorism. No other candidate understands health issues as well as Ron Paul does. He not only supported the Bill which would have removed mercury from our vaccines, he voted against the Patriot Act as well. Dr. Paul., an OB/GYN physician, who has delivered over 4,000 babies, has been the national leader in preserving our Health Freedom. He feels that Americans are justifiably concerned over the government''s escalating intervention into our freedom to choose what we eat and how we take care of our health.
Congressman, Paul never votes for any Bill which he feels is not authorized by The Constitution, regardless of what it might be named. He feels most Laws should be made at the local or State level: the way our Founders intended. We are a Republic, and we have plenty of State lawmakers who are more than willing to make Laws which best serve their constituents. "Ron Paul is one of the easiest people in Congress to work with, because he bases his positions on the merits of issues," says Barney Frank, who has worked with Paul on efforts to ease the regulation of gambling and medical marijuana. "He is independent, but not ornery." Paul has made a habit of objecting to things that no one else objects to. In 2001, he was one of only three House Republicans to vote against the USA Patriot Act. He was the sole House member of either party to vote against the Financial Antiterrorism Act. In 1999, he was the only naysayer in a vote in favor of casting a medal to honor Rosa Parks. Nothing against Rosa Parks. Paul also voted against similar medals for Reagan and Pope John Paul II. He did, however, offer $100 of his own money to help pay for Reagan''s medal, and invited others in Congress to match his offer, but not one Member took him-up on it. Instead, Congress spent YOUR money. He not only routinely opposes resolutions that are unconstitutional, he votes against Bills which presume to advise foreign governments how to run their affairs.
In Congress, Ron Paul is not only known for his lack of ego (a rare quality in D.C.), he''s widely admired for his resistance to the influence of special interest groups. Again. They don''t call him "Dr. No" for no reason. He consistanly votes against pork-barrel spending. In a rice-growing, cattle-ranching district, Paul consistently votes against farm subsidies. In the very district where, in 1900, a storm destroyed the city of Galveston, and where repairs and refugees from Hurricane Katrina continue to exact their toll, he votes against FEMA (the poster child for inept agencies) and flood aid. In a district that is home to thousands of employees of the Johnson Space Center, he votes against financing NASA. Nothwithstanding this, his constituants in the 14th District of Texas continue to re-relect him. Why? You ask? I think one voter I talked to there summarized it nicely when she said, "We may not like his vote. But we trust his heart." Even Tim Delaney, the editorial-page editor of The Victoria Advocate, an influential newspaper in the district, which has generally opposed Paul, on the grounds that a lone wolf cannot get the homeland-security financing he says the district needs, says, "Ron Paul is a very charismatic person. He has charm. He does not alter his position ever. His ideals are high. If a little old man calls up from the farm and says, I need a wheelchair, he''ll get the *** wheelchair for him. Ron Paul is a man of integrity."
When I consider the claim that we should give-up our civil liberties in order to protect ourselves from terrorism, or that we should pay a global Carbon Tax administered and enforced by the U.N. (one world government), because mankind is somehow to blame for global warming, two quotes come to mind:
"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."
- Joseph Goebbels, Nazi Propagandist
"We have nothing to fear but fear itself, and those who would exploit our fear for power and their own personal, selfish, cynical gain."
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Earth is heating up lately, but so are other planets in our solar system. It''s scientific fact. The sun''s increased activity is the common thread which links all of these warming events. Fluctuations in solar activity effect the climate on Earth and other planets, and always will. No reputable scientist could deny that increased Sun activity causes an uptick in Earth''s temperatures. Man''s impact on the planet is exaggerated. All 6 billion people on Earth could fit into an area no bigger than New England.