"Up To A Point": Measuring Success In Iraq

Allen Pizzey Analyzes President Bush's Claim That Iraqis Are "Taking Their Country Back"

(CBS)  News analysis by CBS News correspondent Allen Pizzey in Baghdad.

The coming week is almost certain to see a spate of reports ranging for grudging acceptance to outright affirmation of President George Bush's recent claims that Iraqi forces are "taking their country back."

A more realistic assessment might be the one offered by the beleaguered foreign editor in Evelyn Waugh's "Scoop" to bald statements made by his proprietor: "Up to a point, Lord Copper."

Certainly there is evidence, both statistical and anecdotal, that violence is subsiding and fragile stability is taking hold in wider areas. The death toll of Iraqi civilians and U.S. and Iraqi forces in October was the lowest it has been in about 18 months.

Stores and restaurants are re-opening in parts of Baghdad that have been virtual no-go zones for a year and more.

But, and it is an important but, the people who live in many of the newly vibrant neighborhoods venture out of them at their peril.

Over the weekend the Iraqi government announced that more than 3,000 Iraqi families driven out of their Baghdad neighborhoods by sectarian violence have returned to their homes in the past three months. On the other hand the Iraqi Red Crescent Society will release a report this week showing that the number of IDPs, internally displaced persons, in Iraq now tops 2.3 million, an increase of 16 percent in the last 30 days. Sixty-five percent of them are children.

One reason for the decline in civilian deaths is undoubtedly that fewer people are dying in sectarian violence because there are fewer mixed neighborhoods left to fight over. It has also helped that radical Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr declared a ceasefire and called his forces off the street, a situation he may just as easily be able to reverse.

Mr. Bush dealt with the issue by repeating his oft-stated argument that reconciliation is going on at the local level, pointing to what he said was co-operation between Sunni and Shiite leaders to take on al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

Certainly there is evidence of that, but the motivations may be as much connected to gaining a share of the money, weapons and attendant power that goes with taking on AQM as to actually trying to build a nation.

The arming of local tribal sheikhs may contribute to a short-term solution, but the exercise is risky to say the least. Without a strong central government to exercise authority and command loyalty, the sheikhs will have little reason to give up their arms and the political clout they provide. And even Mr. Bush concedes that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is not coming up to the mark.

When the troop build-up, the so-called "surge," was announced in January it was supposed to give the Maliki administration a "breathing space" to bridge sectarian divides. On Friday, Mr. Bush noted that "reconciliation at the national level hasn't been what we hoped it would have been by now," and said he had "made my disappointments clear to the Iraqi leadership."

In fact, there are persistent whispers and rumors here that the Americans are so fed up with Maliki's dysfunctional government that they are willing to let him slide. There is evidence that Ayyad Alawi, who was Interim Prime Minister before elections is positioning himself to make a grab for power.

What that all adds up to is a recipe for creating a kind of "Lebanon on the Tigris" with warlords holding more sway that politicians and a central government divided along sectarian lines, capable of little more than political infighting.

Mr. Bush said Iraqis were now responsible for security in 8 of Iraq's 18 provinces, but neglected to mention that some months ago he said they would take over all eighteen by the end of this year. Predictions are that it will take at least until July next year for that goal to be even close to being reached.

As further proof of how well things are going, Mr. Bush did what commanders here say they hate to do, but often indulge in nonetheless. He offered a body count as a measure of success. American troops, he claimed, had killed or captured an average of more than 1,500 "enemy fighters" per month since January.

Cynics might suggest, and not without some justification, that the count is based on the premise that anyone killed in a raid or an air strike is an "enemy fighter" until proven otherwise. And since no one knows how many fighters AQM or other insurgents actually command, the body count means little beyond underscoring that the fighting goes on.

Whether the "tide has turned" or is merely ebbing is a judgment call at best, and those in a position to judge are not celebrating yet. As a military briefer in Bagdad put it: "Iraq remains beset by many challenges."

Another way of saying "up to a point."

[nirak2-2009]

It''s amazing how things in Baghdad have improved in the last couple of weeks. The Media is doing such a good job! LOL
Does anyone wonder why the Diplomats don''t want to go?

[speakinup]

toldyouso21 - you must have been under your rock when all those people that were having democracy ''forced'' on them voted, in spite of death threats.

They even submitted to having their finger indelibly marked with ink.

Oh - but we''re FORCING IT upon them.

Wake up idiot!

[speakinup]

"Bagdhad, Ramadi and Anbar have all been "safe" before ...until they weren''t.

Yup - and so was Berlin in 1943 - as long as you weren''t a jew, gypsy, insane, homosexual, or someone that spoke out against the government.

[toldyouso21]

You must be one of those morons that just fell off the truck. Go home and jump off the building.

Posted by antoniof123 at 08:48 AM : Nov 05, 2007


He can''t. Obviously he really lives/slithers from a deep, dark, dank and stinky hole. Can''t jump off a hole.

[toldyouso21]

Bagdhad, Ramadi and Anbar have all been "safe" before ...until they weren''t. A bit of caution is in order because the country and power are in flux--we can have months of relative peace just like we have months of relative mayhem. To really be able to point to any success, the Iraq gov. must do what it does not want to do--repair the infrastructure. Not just for the Shia or Kurds but for everyone. When attacks on oil pipelines, hospitals, and electricity stop, when rubble can be cleared with little fear of bombing and ******* and **** can be flushed away with intact sewers--then those will be clear signs of calm. When the government can actually be seen as getting somewhere and the police are no longer viewed as a factional deathsquad--that is true progress. Until then, it pays to be cautious--squelching the number of dead (Iraq has refused to give a true body count and said that they refused to since May 2007) lying about casualties or claiming last throes, mission accomplished or other BS needs to stop. It fools no one and is only a temporary emotive masturbator for those who think all the death and horror of this war, are worth forcing a democracy and occupation on a foreign land and people.

[baghdadshere]

Katie is a beautful anchor but this article does not reflect the truth. Iraq has become each day a safer place to live. Theres no more truck bombers in crowded markets, no more car bombs factories, no more death squads , anbar province is a roses garden and Falujah which was a terrorists sanctuary is now a touristic town. Actually is more dangerous to walk in the streets of Philadelphia, NY or Chicago than in Baghdad.

Hillary in 08? That will sure be the downfall of this nation! I don''t understand why the libs continue to label themselves "progressive". All of their "liberal" thinking only leads to regression.

They champion freedom of speech. Then the second someone with a different point of view speaks up, they quickly throw around labels such as neocons, Nazis, Fascists, etc.

You "progressives" seem to have the same internal conflict as Gollum and Smeagol. And your "precious" is power - though you never really know what to do with it.

Progressive? Yea......Keep telling yourself that.

[omega39-2009]

Vote for me, Vote for me and this will all go away. The land of milk and honey again just like the 90''''''''s
Posted by hillaryin08

The day that Bill Clinton left office, he had a 66% approval rating. That''s almost twice the number of our self professed decider. Richard Nixon used to be the standard for measuring a bad presidency, but Bush has done Nixon a huge favor.

[erichsh]

I would expect any article about Bush and Iraq to attract hundreds of bombastic flame-throwing screeds from the left. It has every time in the past. Yet they are strangely quiet here. What? Good news in Iraq??? Nah - impossible, we''re destined to lose, remember? Bushit! Mass murderer! Nazi! War criminal! Blood for oil! Cheney/Halliburton ordered 9/11! Don''t mind me, just trying to fill the void here.

[antoniof123]

GEORGE W. BUSH
Why he is the greatest president in history

Posted by BaghdadsHere at 07:53 PM : Nov 04, 2007

I though I''d seen it all but now this does take the cake. I used to think you could reason with stupid but you can''t you must beat it with a stick. That is all they understand so here goes.

You are an idiot of the worst kind you mind is so wrapped up in something called winning that you don''t realize that people are dying. You must be one of those morons that just fell off the truck. Go home and jump off the building.

[hillaryin08]

Tired of you hatred of the rich? Vote for me, Vote for me and this will all go away. The land of milk and honey again just like the 90''''''''s

[hillaryin08]

Vote for me, Vote for me and this will all go away. The land of milk and honey again just like the 90''''s

[gkc99]

"GEORGE W. BUSH
Why he is the greatest president in history"--Posted by BaghdadsHere


This pathetic little monkey who can''t even string a simple sentence together without his tiny brain getting all tangled up is America''s greatest President.

Better take that PCP you''re smoking and flush it down the toilet RIGHT NOW! Your sanity is going.

[nothappyatall]

"His brilliant war strategy..."


HAHAHAHHA LOL!!!!!!!! ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is a lull before the storm that is coming which will totally erase the "success"

[johnny_chaos]

847 lost defending freedom? what the heck are you talking about? what freedom? its a muslim country with about zero freedom and thats how they like it. if you confuse oil interests and the "free" market with actual personal freedom i think you should use a toilet brush as a q-tip. freedom... whata joke. freedom to have a suit tap my phone. and get searched and prodded getting on an airplane. really, freedom is the right to live and die without a government poking around in my business. as in freedom from cops, soldiers, politicians, and neighbours.

[cbs_oliver]

"On the other hand the Iraqi Red Crescent Society will release a report this week showing that the number of IDPs, internally displaced persons, in Iraq now tops 2.3 million, an increase of 16 percent in the last 30 days. Sixty-five percent of them are children."

One reason for the decline in civilian deaths may be that the way in which deaths are classified as "civilian" or "combatant" has been changed recently so that dead males who are not children are now considered "insurgents".

This should be checked out. One easy way to do that is to look at the percentage of dead military age men who are classified as "civilian" casualties. If that percentage is zero or very low that would be a clue!

[feelfree1]

Speakinup,

I noticed that you craven and feeble little mind has jumped to yet another false conclusion, that I am a Muslim, and that I am from some country other than the U.S.

Without maintaining this illusion for yourself, your fragile and fear/hate-filled little brain appears unable to allow you to explain what is going on around you.

[feelfree1]

Speakinup,

Re: "So 847 is nothin..."

If it was you and 846 craven boot/arse-lickers, I would tend to agree.

[baghdadshere]

GEORGE W. BUSH
Why he is the greatest president in history

He had from the beginning to fight the worst enemy of all: The enemy who doesnt care for his life. Thats what suicide al-qaeda fighters are.And Bush has done well. His brilliant war strategy led al-qaeda to Iraq where it could be defeated instead of fighting it at home. He also kept Osama Bin Laden alive so he could witness that piece of desert he calls %u201Choly land%u201D occupied by the %u201Cinfidels%u201D christians he hates so much.

[speakinup]

FeelFree1 - let me clue you in - Americans have died in FAR greater number in the past defending freedom. At Antietam, 23,000 were killed or wounded in a single day.

Hell, we regularily loose 40,000 to drunk drivers - something I''m sure you Muslims REALLY can''t understand (I don''t either) - but we''re just that stubborn about our RIGHTS.

Tell us we can''t, and we''ll prove you wrong.

So 847 is nothin when it comes to kickin your butt!