Iraq's Gunmen Morphing Into Men In Suits
Allen Pizzey: Shiite Militias Are Setting Up Social Networks, Following Hezbollah's Example
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Iraqi members of Shiite radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's movement prepare lamb meat to be distributed to impoverished people in Baghdad's Shula district, October 1, 2007. (AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty)
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Iraq is a place that often defines "self-fulfilling prophecy," especially the one that begins "Be careful what you wish for..."
For several years a fervent wish of the U.S. military and diplomatic efforts here has been to blunt if not negate the military strength of the Mahdi Army, which is nominally under the control of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
But just at the point where that wish is about to come true, those in the movement have shifted from gunmen to Iraq's equivalent of men in suits.
U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker warned a few days ago that elements of the Mahdi Army have forsaken military activities in favor of financial enterprises such as control of gas stations and basic services in Shiite neighborhoods.
The move suggests what Crocker called a "Hezbollahzation" of parts of Iraq, a reference to an emphasis on social networks as a base of strength that has been the hallmark of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The predicament for the Americans is that any effort to curtail that process can cost them support in the street. In many Shiite areas people both welcome and rely on the social work of the Mahdi Army for services and help the government does not provide.
"If they arrest people who are Mahdi Army but who are not doing military things, people will not like them for it," said one resident of a neighborhood where the Americans are trying to crack down. The sweeps also tend to collect suspects regardless of age.
"When they arrest a 16-year-old person for example," the resident said, "It angers many people, because we all have sons or brothers or cousins who are that age, and we know they could be arrested too, even if they have nothing to do with the Mahdi Army."
The military disputes that it detains anyone without good reason, and maintains that when mistakes are made they are quickly rectified. The problem is that committing errors is much easier that rectifying them.
Indeed, Sheik Assad al-Nasseri, a representative of Muqtada al-Sadr, warned during his during Friday sermon in the holy city of Kufa that a moratorium on Shiite militia activities could end if U.S. and Iraqi forces continue with detention campaigns against the movement.

If true, it is an arrangement fraught with danger. As has been amply demonstrated over and over again, the U.S. military lacks the language skills and cultural understanding to deal with the complexities Iraq's social order. This population is steeped in the ways and atmosphere of secrecy, informants and double-dealing.
"If you put an Iraqi in a corner," an interpreter working for a Western company said, "he will find a way to talk his way out. Any Iraqi can do it."
"It's not lying," the interpreter added, "it's something we learned from the time we were born, because that is how you had to live to under Saddam's rule."
What Iraqis do not know how to work is the system of restitution for damages, which means goodwill can be as hard to buy as it is to win. A case in point is the condolence payments being offered by the U.S. Embassy for victims of the shooting involving Blackwater security on September 16.
The embassy began offering payments on October 24. The embassy insists that acceptance of the payments does not mean claimants are waiving their rights to future compensation. In an e-mail response to questions by CBS News, the embassy described the money on offer this way:
"Condolence payments are not an admission of culpability. Condolence payments are simply intended to aid and support affected families on a speedy, short-term basis. The payments should not be construed as a statement about the value of human life."
But in Iraqi society payment is often seen in terms of what is called "fasil al-ashair" which translates roughly as "separation of the tribes." If a member of one tribe commits an offence against a member of another tribe, payment made in compensation is seen as final restitution, and the matter is closed.
Urbanized Iraqis, like the people killed and injured by Blackwater, may not adhere to "fasil al-ashair" as a matter of normal recourse, but neither will they dismiss it as irrelevant no matter what assurances they are given, especially by an occupier few if any trust, acting on behalf of contractors who have been placed above the law, and are hated for it.
To believe otherwise is to indulge in wishful thinking.
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Partitioning Iraq-- 3
In the British model for partitioning, lines are drawn and refugees allowed to pass to their home sector. In the case of India, there was no effective officialdom to safeguard passage, and groups of refugees of opposite faiths set upon each other with massive carnage.
Obviously, the way to avoid that is to have the US forces-- under auspices of the UN-- shepherd the respective groups. There is no other means to keep each side from attacking refugees of the other.
Yes, Iran would get something out of it, but so would the Saudis in secured protection for the Shia. The end point being, regional resolution of a regional problem.
More than one diplomat has counseled an end to unilateralism from Bush, because Bush obviously does not have the attention of anybody-- least of all, those who count most.
Iraq is the epicenter of a web of political fault lines and a history predating the United States, so the height of folly is Bush imposing his vision of the Emerald City of Democracy. Only a neocon with oil reserves in his eyes would think like that... only a neocon would want to.
Iraq is an outstanding example of regional rivalries at play, but no model at all for constructive outcomes. Only ignorance of what Saddam did to hold Iraq together would persuade anybody Iraq has a native cohesion or future. Most parties to Iraq would welcome a comparatively honest broker, one not identified with the US or UK or regional players like Syria, Iran and even Turkey. Until one is found, the current disaster will continue at great cost to the people of Iraq, and threaten the security of all parties. After invading the country, how ironic Bush might find the UN has great utility, after all.
Partitioning the country is likely, simply because (1) Iraq is not a nation, but a political amalgam crafted by Europeans after WWI (2) partitioning Iraq allows all sides to win something, since the violence stops, and there is no longer the issue of US withdrawal from Iraq, because there is no Iraq. The Sunnis join Syria, the Shia join Iran and the poor Kurds have no sponsor but us and a lot of diplomacy-- for example, letting Turkish Kurds migrate safely to the south to join the Kurds in North Iraq. The Turks might buy in, because that would depopulate the Kurdish rebellion in south Turkey.
In his better days, Kissinger observed the best agreements, even with enemies, can be relied upon to work when they express mutual interest. In the same sense of mutual interest, successful resettling followed the vicious civil war which issued India and Pakistan. The Balkans demonstrate comparative stability after several bloody years without the UN presence, and there are multiple other examples of the ability of an international or regional body to defuse tensions in a way that allows real healing to occur. Of course, the UN itself does not do the healing, but promotes conditions to allow healing to occur.
Is it because the locals have had enough indescriminent killing by the Al Qaeda, and are now turning to our side. That they love democracy and voting for their leader as was shown in their elections.
You are all wet, liberal - go back to the drawing boards for your propaganda message - this one don''t cut it.
been around since the u.s.a''s civil war. killed
pain, hopefully, deep, abiding, long-lasting
mortal pain. it offered temporary relief, for
such pain only reserved for the most demonic of
demons. pain so excruciating there are no words
to describe it. i ran into a group years ago
as a citizen. it was a.l.a. the alcoholic liberation
army. they would say, tis the will of a.l.a. they
never wanted to drink an alcoholic beverage, have
anyone else drink one, or any of their family.
they boiled down much of the world''s problems to
''drink''. they were a major terrorist organization
and force. still around today. carrie nation,
remember her of the women''s christian temperance
union? her suffragette susan b. anthony muckrackers
are still raking us all over the coals. now,
i can''t walk on water, neither can i walk on hot
coals of fire. charcoal briquets. but polynesian
islanders can. enjoy the floor show. have
a lemonade no sugar, cause sugar''s bad for your teeth.
i almost bought some pure lemon juice today, but
i chickened out. real men eat raw lemons.
In the British model for partitioning, lines are drawn and refugees allowed to pass to their home sector. In the case of India, there was no effective officialdom to safeguard passage, and groups of refugees of opposite faiths set upon each other with massive carnage.
Obviously, the way to avoid that is to have the US forces-- under auspices of the UN-- shepherd the respective groups. There is no other means to keep each side from attacking refugees of the other.
Yes, Iran would get something out of it, but so would the Saudis in secured protection for the Shia. The end point being, regional resolution of a regional problem.
More than one diplomat has counseled an end to unilateralism from Bush, because Bush obviously does not have the attention of anybody-- least of all, those who count most.
Iraq is the epicenter of a web of political fault lines and a history predating the United States, so the height of folly is Bush imposing his vision of the Emerald City of Democracy. Only a neocon with oil reserves in his eyes would think like that... only a neocon would want to.
In the British model for partitioning, lines are drawn and refugees allowed to pass to their home sector. In the case of India, there was no effective officialdom to safeguard passage, and groups of refugees of opposite faiths set upon each other with massive carnage.
Obviously, the way to avoid that is to have the US forces-- under auspices of the UN-- shepherd the respective groups. There is no other means to keep each side from attacking refugees of the other.
Yes, Iran would get something out of it, but so would the Saudis in secured protection for the Shia. The end point being, regional resolution of a regional problem.
More than one diplomat has counseled an end to unilateralism from Bush, because Bush obviously does not have the attention of anybody-- least of all, those who count most.
Iraq is the epicenter of a web of political fault lines and a history predating the United States, so the height of folly is Bush imposing his vision of the Emerald City of Democracy. Only a neocon with oil reserves in his eyes would think like that... only a neocon would want to.
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Which leader is that? Clearly, you have no idea how firmly the Shia control the nominal Iraqi government. And do you believe Shia and Sunni factions will embrace as Iraqis?
As for your single question, the answer is "No". You like to quote casualty rates? Why is it so high after Bush declared "Mission Accomplished"? Most US dead and wounded arrived AFTER that date. As the total of US dead nears 4,000, are you prepared to go on defending the biggest political scandal on the American people since Vietnam?
.
Bushbots fail to appreciate their own contradiction-- when the Iraqis begin to adopt a Hezbollah style of native self-rule, Bushbots suddenly find the Iraqi democratic choice is unacceptable.
The awful irony? Americans died and continue to die so Iran can secure its latest client state in Iraq! Bush would like to say, "Over my dead body" but Bush is content to fight to the last American soldier, instead.
Bush and his GOP enablers have brought nothing but shame and disaster upon this country by their lies and criminally corrupt behavior.
That means Maliki was chosen based on the appearance of his face. He looked least likely to kick down your door and rape your daughter among the candidates pictured, so he got the job. It''s no wonder the people in Iraq look to whoever seems to be doing to most to provide basic services.
This was the quagmire Richard Cheney said we''d have if we got rid of Saddam.
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Is that the same Richard (***) Cheney who just knew, despite the lack of solid evidence, Saddam needed an invasion?" Say it isn''t so!
As for the trust that "freedom loving Iraqis" have in their government, the Shia control the Interior ministry, thus the hospitals. Shia police in hospitals routinely execute any Sunni found, shooting even the wounded in their hospital beds. Most Sunni wounded, as a result, scramble desperately to find a fake ID to "prove" they are Shia.
Why is it you claim I know nothing ? "Clearly, you have no idea how firmly the Shia control the nominal Iraqi government. And do you believe Shia and Sunni factions will embrace as Iraqis?"
Because I disagree with your opinions ?
BTW, I don''t believe our President has a very high confidence level, does that mean we don''t cherish our political system ? That we don''t love being able to vote? no.
I noticed you dodged the question. ''no'' is not an answer to the question I posed.
But it does look like you are familiar with how to cut and paste your opinionated message, and portray it as if it were the truth.
Posted by speakinup at 06:06 PM : Oct 27, 2007
http://www.icasualties.org/oif/US_chart.aspx
Try again. This month so far has more US dead from a year and a half ago, March 2006. Last month''s deaths were middle of the chart, more than 25 previous months, a solid year of consistently high casualties.
No, the current death rate is just getting back to pre-surge "normal".
Where do you get 3 1/2 years???
Bush ignores the polls and looks at the world like a chess board, and Cheney is the ultimate CEO providing huge revenues for the companies who have asked him for their help. These are not the same people we elected in 2000.
This is what George W Bush said about Kosovo on 4/9/99: %u201CVictory means exit strategy, and it%u2019s important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is.%u201D
This is what he said about his own war on 6/24/05: %u201CIt doesn%u2019t make any sense to have a timetable. You know, if you give a timetable, you%u2019re %u2014 you%u2019re conceding too much to the enemy.%u201D
You don''t have to make things up about Bush. He damns himself with his own words.
%u2014Cheney at the Washington Institute''s Soref Symposium, April 29, 1991
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Your question was "Do I believe...? You took a rambling series of propositions and tried to make it into a single question. Which proposition did you want me to address? Mine was the only answer your comments permitted.
As for "dodging", I must hear a single, discrete question before I can dodge the question.
Your analogy that Maliki may be weak but "freedom loving" Iraqis could be behind him, nonetheless, is certainly possible. However, polls of Iraqis do not find a groundswell of support for him. Maliki quarrels with even his Shia base, for example, and they reward him with mutual contempt, as they did his predecessor.
You tried an analogy to show Bush can be a weak president and still have "freedom loving" citizens behind him", which is certainly possible. However, popular support is not probable, based on opinion polls about Bush and Iraq. Liberals, for example, consider themselves especially freedom loving, but they also consider Bush worse than weak. Thus, it is far more likely freedom loving citizens are not behind Bush, at least in this country. And this is where your analogy falls apart.
So, I apologize for supposing you were a "Bushbot". Clearly, you aspire to more.
---
Cheney sounds rational here-- which argues for his current, failing grasp of reality. Paranoia is not a term to use lightly. Many who knew Cheney then and now are quite worried about the transformation.
The paradox is this-- based on his experience with GOP presidents and their foreign policies, Cheney might have told Bush not even to think about invasion. "Saddam may have tried to kill your father with a missile at the Rome airport, and we have fought a war with him since then, but we have to realize he is our best hope at keeping the Iranians in Iran. Even your father understood he needed to send Saddam little gifts like nerve gas for his amusement to keep him in our camp."
Yet, it was Cheney, by most accounts who pushed Bush for an invasion. Bush was the boy king who needed an avuncular hand on his shoulder, and became easy prey for Cheney and his neocon circles.
Thus, Dr. Strangelove applies. it was Cheney who underwent some very destructive weirdness, for which this country only has begun to pay.
So alphaa10 - below is the complete text in which I posed my question. I see one descrete question, followed by a question mark. The other sentences don''t have question marks. They are called retorical questions.
"alphaa10 - one question - since we are doing so badly there - why is the US death rate the lowest it has been in 3 and a half years ?
"Is it because the locals have had enough indescriminent killing by the Al Qaeda, and are now turning to our side. That they love democracy and voting for their leader as was shown in their elections.
"You are all wet, liberal - go back to the drawing boards for your propaganda message - this one don''''t cut it. Posted by speakinup.
actornaught check out this web site: http://icasualties.org/oif/ 3rd chart down left side entitled "U.S. Deaths By Month/Year:"
So, do you deny that there seems to be a drastic decline in the number of US deaths ?
What do you attribute that to ? Good luck. The troops getting better a dodging bullets. Just maybe our new plan is working ? (note descrete question at the end would be the one I''d like answered, for those of you unable to handle two questions, (alphaa10.)
There is no indication from any general who was in Iraq at any time since the invasion except for Patraeus who thinks we are winning over the Iraqi people. The Mahdi Army is seen as being a bunch of heroes for providing basic services to the Iraqi people, in spite of the fact those same people are arrested daily by US troops. The Kurds, who we have no control over, are attacking Turkey, our ally right now. There are at any given time, parts of Iraq US soldiers avoid completely.
You won''t be happy until we concede that you''re right that we''ve pacified Iraq and won over the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people, and the facts just don''t support it. The number of US troop deaths is just one statistic coming out of a very complex quagmire.
Posted by speakinup at 06:06 PM : Oct 27, 2007
http://www.icasualties.org/oif/US_chart.aspx
...
No, the current death rate is just getting back to pre-surge "normal".
Where do you get 3 1/2 years???
Posted by actornaught at 07:05 PM : Oct 27, 2007
speakinup, are you having trouble following your own thread?
YES, i deny there''s a drastic decline, see above partial repost, including your own unsupportable claims. So your repeated question isn''t even valid.
While any reduction of casualties is good, you should realize by now the insurgency and al Qaeda pick their battles. During the so-called surge, for example, insurgents simply melted away from the neighborhoods, only to return when troops left. Predictably, both insurgent and US casualties dropped during the period.
But US commenders expected as much, and some expect only permanently positioned troops will be required. It so happens Bush and Rumsfeld ignored Gen. Shinseki, who predicted the US would need several hundred thousand occupation troops. Now, the American public understands Petraeus and his public relations exercise of a troop surge is largely meaningless.
for what purpose are ANY casualties sustained by this country? One casualty is too many for a criminal fraud and a national disaster.
Your argument is to insist that fewer dead means a corner has been turned in Iraq. Those with more experience say, only a propagandist and shill would jump for that.
And you missed the entire point of the original post on partitioning to which you replied-- which is, Iraq''s future probably willl not be as Iraq.
U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker warned a few days ago that elements of the Mahdi Army have forsaken military activities in favor of financial enterprises such as control of gas stations and basic services in Shiite neighborhoods.
The move suggests what Crocker called a "Hezbollahzation" of parts of Iraq, a reference to an emphasis on social networks as a base of strength that has been the hallmark of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The predicament for the Americans is that any effort to curtail that process can cost them support in the street. In many Shiite areas people both welcome and rely on the social work of the Mahdi Army for services and help the government does not provid
---
Here is your chance to learn what a "retorical" question represents, then to understand even these commonly use question marks. The rhetorical question is used to showcase an important point, but it is expressed as a question.
If you believe you have a question to ask, ask it as a single, clearly expressed question. Not a meandering series of disjointed editorial statements intended as "retorical" devices. Clearly, your devices blew up on you.
If you believe your several "retorical" questions need answers, try asking separate, clearly expressed questions. And then, you can get an answer to each question, in turn.
In answer to your single statement which you have said is a "question"-- you apparently believe a drop in US Iraq dead represents a turning of the tide for the Iraqi government and the Bush fiasco in Iraq. On what basis? There are many reasons not to interpret a slice of data as a turning of the tide.
Posted by bluezx at 01:32 AM : Oct 29, 2007
For sll the fallen in all wars, my heart goes out to them and all their families, but you surely cannot believe that you can win the war in Iraq. It will take the involvment of the whole of the world to sort out this most terrible mess. Soliders do not fight for causes, their job is to obey orders from above, not to question them. That is the way of a soldiers life and being.
There are many, many young soldiers also coming home and joining the war protest. Apparently they have not visted your retail store.
Lots of these young men who''ve fought over there have become attached to the iraqi people, and want good things for them, as we all do. Their compassion and goodheartedness is very honorable. And their bravery is is uncomparable. And it is our honor to have the safe back at home.
Soldiers as has already been said, are taught to follow orders and not question. It is necessary for their safety, and it is also necessary for them to justify what they have to do in their own mind.
Their mission is an honorable one. But they are having to fight in a corrupt war, and that''s sad for all of us.
If we fight for many years to come in Iraq, the people will still not be free. It is simply a war that cannot be won, due to the corruptness on both sides, and differences among it''s own tribes. This has been going on for thousands of years.
This war was never about freeing the Iraq''s. It wasn''t even about suppressing a dictator possessing WMD''s...because they knew he didn''t have any.
All we can do right now is get them home and safe, and allow the Iraq''s to decide how they want to live.
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by speakinup
October 30, 2007 6:00 PM PDT
- Nancy_Naive - how often did the indian nations retreat ?
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