U.S. Deaths In Iraq Continue To Decline

Officials Credit Troop Surge For Drop In U.S. Military And Iraqi Civilian Deaths

(CBS/AP) 
The efforts to recruit local partners began taking shape earlier this year in the western province of Anbar, which had become the virtual heartland for Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda bands. The early successes in Anbar - coming alongside a boost of 30,000 U.S. forces into the Baghdad area - led to similar alliances in other parts of Iraq.

"People are fed up with fear, intimidation and being brutalized. Once they hit that tipping point, they're fed up, they come to realized we truly do provide them better hope for the future. What we're seeing now is the beginning of a snowball," said Keaveny, whose forces operate out of Forward Operating Base Kalsu, about 35 miles south of Baghdad.

While U.S. death figures appear to be in sharp decline, the number of Iraqi civilians and security forces show a less dramatic drop. And any significant attack - by insurgents or civilians caught in the crossfire - could quickly wipe out the downward trend.

The current pace of civilian deaths would put October at less than 900. The figure last month was 1,023 and for August, 1,956, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press.

The AP tally is compiled from hospital, police and military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent deaths are not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher civilian death tolls.

While the decline in deaths is notable, it is only one of many measures of potential progress in Iraq, said Anthony Cordesman, a former Pentagon analyst now with the private Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Cordesman said a more balanced picture needs to include factors such as wounded civilians and soldiers and the number of people fleeing their homes. The U.N. refugee agency said Tuesday that between 1,000 and 2,000 Iraqis still leave their homes each day for safer havens in the country or in neighboring nations. "It's just been going up slowly," said U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees spokeswoman Astrid van Genderen Stort in Geneva.

"The numbers we're dealing with here are only major acts of violence, the number of times people are killed," said Cordesman. "This is certainly progress ... but it has to be put in perspective."

Lynch's mission also shows the slow pace of reclaiming areas from militants. His troops and their new local allies must work town by town, village by village.

Sunni Sheik Emad Ghurtani is among those helping.

"Honestly, I'm not going to hide this from you," Ghurtani told Lynch as the two stood talking at a newly established tribal check point near Haswa, a village just north of the Kalsu base.

"There is some al Qaeda here in this area. But, God willing, we will get rid of them. ... The citizens are coming out. They're not afraid any more," the tall and handsome tribal leader said. Three scruffy young men watched, AK-47s slung over their shoulders, in the sandbag bunker at the check point.

Lynch, hatless on the balmy autumn day, answered in staccato sentences.

"What we really need is information. You know where al Qaeda is. You know who they are. You have to tell us. We can use all our capabilities to take out the enemy. But you have to tell us where they are, because you know. You've got our total support."

The sheik, who made Lynch promise to return for lunch one day, responded with striking eloquence.

"Because of what the American forces have accomplished, instead of us moving step by step we're going to start running toward the enemy ... Instead of walking, we're going to start running now. We just need the weapons and ammunition," Ghurtani said.

The guard force at the checkpoint changed during the conversation. Three young men barely out of their teens, ancient Kalashnikovs in hand, strolled town the dirt road that led back into Ghurtani territory. Their U.S.-provided uniforms are a vest with a reflective orange band akin to what road crews wear in the United States.

Ghurtani complained they hadn't been paid the $100 a month the Americans had promised.

"If I get some of the money they need I can get them shoes, some vests and some ammunition. If they can find me cheap weapons, we can start getting these men ready. God willing in the next few days," the sheik said.

Most heartening, Lynch said, was the checkpoint just across the road and over an irrigation canal. It was run by Shiites.

Lynch said the checkpoints on opposite sides of the road highlighted a kind of reconciliation by necessity: not fighting each other but protecting themselves from a common enemy.

"They have to be convinced that we're not leaving. That's the issue. If they were to think we're leaving we'd have also sorts of trouble," Lynch said, clambering over a makeshift earthen bridge across the canal.

The local Shiite sheik wasn't at the checkpoint.

He was in a hospital recovering from injuries in a car crash. Two ragtag fellows in their 20s stood up from their sandbag bunker and told Lynch they needed money to buy weapons. "Al Qaeda has all kinds of weapons. We just have these old rifles," one of them said pointing to his dilapidated Kalashnikov.

"OK. We just continue to work together to get you the money so you can buy better weapons, better ammunition, uniforms. Improve your check point. We just have to work together," Lynch said, spinning on his heel and marching back to his nine-Humvee convoy.

On to Haswa, down a road known for Iranian-made roadside bombs, a Kiowa gunship clattered above as protection. Back at division headquarters, public affairs officers were hammering out more press statements about how Concerned Citizens were leading soldiers to militant weapons caches and turning in extremist fighters.

[mplsman50]

This article talks about reduced deaths for 2 months in a row. It fails to mention that 2007 is on course to be the deadliest year for US troops thus far in the war. It also fails to mention that from Nov of 2005 to March of 2006 the US Troop death rate dropped for 4 consecutive months. This current 2 month drop, while good news for the troops, is likely to be forgotten if and when the death toll increases again. The only way to be certain the death toll decreases is for our troops to come home.

[drummer94]

What is George trying to do with Cuba? Kruschev (?) again? OOObviously this first "adventure" is taking way too long. This country is only 90 miles away.

[drummer94]

Rock and Roll speak. Rock and Roll. Just to change the subject a little, was watchin the news about Ca. fires, a fire fighter said " sometimes mother nature kicks ourasses". How true about a lot of things, ''eh? Metaphorically speakin. up. (couldn''t resist)

[speakinup]

drummer94 - I was under the impression it was in demand because of the desire to put the troops within the population of Iraq. To be honest with you, I REALLY didn''t know for a FACT until I looked at wikipedia (although it can be updated by anyone, I generally believe it to be true, especially quotes, as people are quick to change it if it is not).

I AM excited that it is happening, and I should NOT begrudge you for having the same thoughts. Mostly, I''m glad it is happening, because I want us out of there too, but not under just ANY circumstances.

I think to leave in the lurch, would be as big a mistake as us going in on the first place. And, I do think it was a mistake, but given what we knew at the time, I think we would still have done it again. Let''s face it our intelligence was bad. Most of congress said yes, go.

To bail on another group of folks that put their necks on the line, and I think they proved that with the vote, would have be catastrophic for future situations, if we ever got involved. Then our credibility would be challengable by any country.

Anyway - let''s hope the situation continues to get better, and we can turn the problem over to the Iraqis themselves.

[drummer94]

I thought about this for a while speakinup, and I guess I need to say I see where you''re coming from. BUT, (sorry) in the scheme of things there, was the civvie population getting involved the point of the surge? Or was it bigger? Just askin.

[speakinup]

"Don''t be so quick to place credit. It might not be due. Posted by drummer94 at 05:54 PM

Let''s both hope you are wrong drummer94. And, not because of either of us having a liberal or neocon point of view.

[drummer94]

You don''t have to go to such great lengths speakinup. Hey, I''m happy deaths of our troops are down too. I can''t believe that I would ever have to say I''m happy about that but never the less. WHY is the point and question. Don''t be so quick to place credit. It might not be due.

[speakinup]

drummer94 - So, immediately following the speach where the ''surge'' was announced, "a New way forward was announced by the whitehouse"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War_troop_surge_of_2007

According to wikipedia the President had 6 ideas in mind for the new way forward, two of which were: Help Iraqis protect the population; Isolate extremists.

How else to isolate the extremeists, than enlist the help of the locals which had become very disenchanted with the extremeists indescriminient killing of the population (note the protection of the population point.)

Let me refresh your memory by quoting what folks had to say about Bush''s new plan, - directly from wikipedia:

Other critics have compared Bush''s new plan to "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic."

And in Bush''s State of the Union, on 1/27/07 "In order to make progress toward this goal, the Iraqi government must stop the sectarian violence in its capital. But the Iraqis are not yet ready to do this on their own. So we''re deploying reinforcements of more than 20,000 additional soldiers and Marines to Iraq. The vast majority will go to Baghdad, where they will help Iraqi forces to clear and secure neighborhoods, and serve as advisers embedded in Iraqi Army units. With Iraqis in the lead, our forces will help secure the city by chasing down the terrorists, insurgents, and the roaming death squads."

Nice or you to agree with the President - but don''t try to take credit.

[toolmangler-2009]

"A U.S. helicopter opened fire on a group of men as they were planting roadside bombs in a Sunni stronghold north of Baghdad on Tuesday, then chased them into a nearby house, killing 11 Iraqis, including five women and one child, the military said"



I think that some of you will say that the moment the bomb planters ran into a residence that the attack should stop. RRRiiiggghhhttt!!!!! then they should just stop all attacks while the bombers are inside out of view, Rrrriiiiggghhhttt!!! these same people would be very happy if we allowed them to shoot at us without responding. ssshhheeessshhh!!!!!

[drummer94]

You just must''ve been giddy typing that post ''eh speakinup? You''ve been waiting a long time for it. Man, you were almost gloating on the decrease in our troops death rates goin down. You are happy about it though, true? Hate to burst your bubble, but I don''t think it had anything to do with the surge. Read the part about the increased participation of the civilians. "Citizen force" they are referred to. I said a long time ago, that this nightmare will stop when the Iraqi people want it to stop. Not before.

[speakinup]

Buzz Buzz Buzz

Isn''t it amazing how all the liberals can''t stay on the topic. What ever happened to all of their prognostication about how the surge wouldn''t help, and General Petraeus lied to us for Bush.

Well the fact is - US deaths CONTINUE to drop.

Whine whine whine

"We can''t fight fires because every one is on Iraq.

Oh, Pa-leeze - how lame can the left get ? Even if EVERY soldier was from California, there would still be millions of abled bodied men to fight the fire.

Buzz Buzz Buzz

"The surge was suppose to give Iraq time to create political reconciliation - so where is it."

It took us 12 years between Declaration of Independence and the Constitution was radified. And, a good deal of that time didn''t have a war happening.

Face it Democrats - you backed the wrong horse - you wanted to cut and run, Republicans wanted to stay the course. We''re winning and Hillary''s now going to have to come up with something new to fake Presidential looks...

And, Bill AIN''T it.

[actornaught]

"rerrorislam3"? The old "terrorislam" nic was banned, then.

[getagrip54]

I guess its time for ol'' GW to climb back on board an Aircraft carrier to declare "Mission Accomplished!"

Oops, I forgot, he''s already done that. It was just that it was so long ago.

[bareemperor]

Watched the White House talking head last night, the blond was saying the fire services in Calif were spread thin because... "we are a nation at war" - she repeated this statement three times within one minute... I found this an odd piece of brainwashing at an odd time.
And it made me think - our nation is NOT at war, our president is at war. And he is ''''fighting'''' in some little dot on the world map, and there are some thugs, not very many, ambushing a few of our ''''troops'''' ocassionally, and Bu$h and Congre$$ are calling it an endless ''''war'''', and throwing all my tax dollars at defense corporations...

This is NOT a war.

A million Californians need help, and the White House needs a photo-op.

What is wrong with America?

[searingtruth]

"Truth is defined by the weakest of us who must suffer through it."
SearingTruth

A Future of the Brave - www.searingtruth.com

[rerrorislam3]

Posted by IOWEIGN at 03:44 AM : Oct 24, 2007

the Iraqi war is legal, demonic-rat hero oscar, emmy, nobel prize winning al bore says so,,,
it actually never ended since it only stopped by the signing of a ceasefire,,, just like the korean war,,,

the resumption of hostilities was only a matter of time since iraq broke the ceasefire agreement,,,

blame saddam for iraq,,, Even clintoon and the dems wanted the resumption of hostilities back in 1998,,,

"We know that he has stored secret supplies of biological and chemical weapons throughout his country." - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"Iraq''s search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power." - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

Moreover, no international law can prevent the United States from taking actions to protect its vital interests, when it is manifestly clear that there is a choice to be made between law and survival. I believe, however, that such a choice is not presented in the case of Iraq. Indeed, should we decide to proceed, that action can be justified within the framework of international law rather than outside it. In fact, though a new UN resolution may be helpful in building international consensus, the existing resolutions from 1991 are sufficient from a legal standpoint. - Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2004/gore/gore092302sp.html

[ioweign]

Thats a GWB personal victory. The surge is working pretty good. There are no more truck bombers in crowded markets. No more death squads. Anbar province is a roses garden.Al qaeda in Iraq is defeated.
Thats why democrats are so desperate and hystericals.

Posted by I_Say_So at 08:50 PM : Oct 23, 2007

The surge was suppose to give Iraq time to create political reconciliation - so where is it. One of the goals was an Oil Policy - where is it. It is great that the violence is decreasing in Iraq but that doesn''t make the invasion "legal" in the international courts.

[nearl4511]

Yes, we know. The statistical rules for counting those killed has changed since Patraeus'' reporting methods to discount civilians that may have been killed by other means.

Truth be told, it is not Anwar al Islam (Al Queada in Iraq) who was ever repsonsible for most of US casualties, since there was never more than a couple of thousand of them.

Haven''t you heard, Al SAdr has asked his militias to stand down for now.

Anyway keep those numbers dropping so that we may start to extricate our troops the heck out of their and redeploy.

[waynabq]

BUSH HAS killed THOUSANDS of innocent civilians. Osama is a novice compared to US CHENEY/BUSH TERROR.

JAIL BUSH JAIL CHENEY War Criminals, Murderous Thugs, LIED us into Iraq

Try changing the death of "thousands" to hundreds of thousands. Bush and Cheney are the culture of greed and death.

[waynabq]

This country has been hijacked by a rabid war-mongering monkey who has held this country hostage for nearly seven years. Twenty four percent of this country still don''t realize this fact.