Is Clinton's Campaign Overconfident?

washingtonpost.com: Strategist Says Nothing Is Being Taken For Granted, But Campaign Exudes Optimism

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz in washingtonpost.com's blog The Trail.

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Mark Penn, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, sat down with a large group of reporters Thursday morning for a status report on the presidential campaign. "We are taking absolutely nothing for granted," he said soberly. Everything else Penn said during the hour-long session pointed to a campaign that feels increasingly confident of its position.

Penn's appearance at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast came about 12 hours after Barack Obama joined Jay Leno in Burbank for the Tonight Show. Asked by his host about how the campaign was going, Obama invoked one of the more embarrassing moments of the Bush presidency to tweak the Democratic frontrunner.

"Hillary," he said, "is not the first person in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

Penn may have had those words echoing in his ears when he showed up for his breakfast. Time and again, including in his opening statement, he went out of his way to underscore the Clinton's is a campaign at full battle stations, no matter what the national polls may show: "We are running a primary campaign. We are taking every primary seriously. This race is not over. Iowa is very competitive."

In between, Penn had difficulty concealing his sense of confidence, even pointing out that the increased attacks by Edwards and Obama reflect their nervousness rather than her vulnerabilities. "That is a spin that people have," said David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist.

Penn's most provocative moments came not when he talked not about Clinton's Democratic rivals but when he focused on the rising power of the women in politics and Clinton's potential to attract what would be a historic female turnout -- including Republican women and younger women.

"I think you'll see a tremendous influx into the political process of women who weren't as politically oriented," he said.

Women now make up about 54 percent of the electorate and Penn predicted this number could go higher if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. If that were to happen, another five or six states could open up on the electoral map that have been off limits to the Democrats in recent elections.

Republicans, he said, could be in for a nasty surprise if Clinton is the nominee. "I think the Republicans are not prepared for the loss of a substantial group of their Republican women voters," he said.

Penn argued that Clinton has an opportunity to produce sizeable defections -- as much as 24 percent of Republican women could end up voting for Clinton in a general election race. That, he said, would make "a major difference nationwide because of the emotional element of having the first woman nominee and that actually will be a major unexpected factor here that will throw the Republicans for a loop."

He cited one poll in which Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani in a hypothetical general election match up. In that survey, Clinton has an 18-point lead over Giuliani among women -- which he interpreted as almost insurmountable, given that women make up more than half the electorate.

John Edwards continues to argue that he is the most electable Democrat in 2008, that he can campaign effectively in places that Clinton cannot. When Penn was asked about resistance to Clinton's candidacy in the South, he said, "She's very strong in Arkansas." He also said she has a very good shot at winning Florida and noted that she is ahead in current general election polls in swing states like Ohio.

What about the West, where there also appears to be nervousness among Democratic officeholders about Clinton as the Democratic nominee? The race is in the early stages of development in those states and will look better later, he predicted. He added that western-state polls that may show her in trouble are probably lagging indicators.

Nor did Penn seem daunted at the prospect of a Clinton-Giuliani race. After all, he said, Giuliani is the one Republican she's run against (briefly) already. Giuliani's success to date in the Republican nomination battle is as much a reflection of the dissatisfaction among GOP voters with their entire field as with the former mayor's strength as a candidate. "I don't think Republicans have any real stars as candidates," he said.

He argued that Clinton is the one Democrat who could neutralize Giuliani's potential strength in the northeast and industrial battlegrounds. "She wipes him out in New York," he said, and would beat him in Pennsylvania. As for battleground states in the heartland, Penn predicted that Giuliani would not travel well from his New York roots.

Could Bill Clinton become a liability to Hillary Clinton's presidential ambitions. "He is a tremendously popular former president," Penn said, particularly among Democratic primary voters. "I could speculate on things all day," he added. "The reality is, he is a tremendous asset for this campaign and that's the way it has been for this last year and I believe will certainly continue to be that way."

His optimism was tempered seemingly only by the state of play in Iowa, but even there he sounded upbeat. Obama is a formidable opponent, he noted, and Edwards has had strong support there. But he added, "Iowans are less and less enthusiastic about Edwards and little by little they're gaining increased confidence in Senator Clinton and what kind of president she would be."

For a moment, he caught himself and started to back pedal. "There's no sense in this campaign in any way of taking anything for granted. We understand full well how quickly these things change." Then it was another surge of optimism. "The good news is that people are receiving her very well."

[euge005]

There is so much damage from the Chaney regime that has to be undone if this country is going to survive. Any of the Dem''s would be a good start to do this. I wiould lkike some one to ask them at a debate why they would or not issue an executive order that strips all those bogus signing statement that the White House is using to avoid the intent of the law. The abuse of power to avoid any law that W and owners disagree with is one of the worst offenses right up there with abuse of the first Amendment to the Constitution and crimes committed agaist the FISA act. It all has to be repudiated and add to the text books on our history to make sure no future criminal group does this again. She can do this and it has to be done.

[guysdigdirt]

What kind of a ridiculouis lie is this, "free speech" in America.
Posted by SharnCedar

If you do not like it, leave, no one is making you stay here.

I hear Iraq will welcome you, they have lots of freedom, Cuba, Iran, North Korea... there are lots of countries that would love to have you as they are losing their population as quickly as the citizens can leave. America on the other hand is where everyone of them wants to come.

Leave, please, if you do not like it here. If you are not here and think it so terrible, stop posting on American sites, just frequent those sites your country offers.

[guysdigdirt]

What kind of a ridiculouis lie is this, "free speech" in America.
Posted by SharnCedar

If you do not like it, leave, no one is making you stay here.

I hear Iraq will welcome you, they have lots of freedom, Cuba, Iran, North Korea... there are lots of countries that would love to have you as they are losing their population as quickly as the citizens can leave. America on the other hand is where everyone of them wants to come.

Leave, please, if you do not like it here. If you are not here and think it so terrible, stop posting on American sites, just frequent those sites your country offers.

[guysdigdirt]

Hillary supported the war with Iraq when it came time to vote on doing it or not, then when it bacame unpopular with the voters she turned her back on the troops.

Recently she did a classic Clinton and lied. One day she told a small group of supporters at a fund raiser dinner that she sees the need to have our troops in Iraq "after the end of her second term in office if elected", so another 10 years or more. A week later she told a large group at a rally, when asked what her firts act as president would be if elected, that she would bring home the troops. Her "camp", when questioned, said "she did not say she would bring home all the troops".

Liar, Liar, just like the other clinton.

[guysdigdirt]

I LOVE IT !!! Check out the caption on the 2nd pic on this article:

"Mark Penn, Hillary''''s chief strategist says Republicans could be in for a ''''nasty surprise'''' if Clinton is the nominee"

Well Mark, I would say you''''ve made the understatement of the year. Hillary is about as nasty as they come!!!

Posted by Speakinup

[guysdigdirt]

I LOVE IT !!! Check out the caption on the 2nd pic on this article:

"Mark Penn, Hillary''''s chief strategist says Republicans could be in for a ''''nasty surprise'''' if Clinton is the nominee"

Well Mark, I would say you''''ve made the understatement of the year. Hillary is about as nasty as they come!!!

Posted by Speakinup

[bizzzz-2009]

In the end, Clinton will be smoked in the Presidential debates, because she has no resume to speak of and her lack of accomplishments leaves her incredibly vunerable.
I defy anyone to post on this message board a list of her accomplishments or cite any experience she has managing a business.
Her greatest example of consistency is repeatedly ignoring her cheating husband.

[gunownerdan]

Warmongering megalomaniacs like Hitlery Clinton are often extremely overconfident and self-righteous.

[sharncedar]

"The citizens of some other countries who are not the rulers cannot without mortal peril say the things we say"

Yahm in the 1950''s maybe. Now the rest of the world has more free speech than we do, why don''t you travel a little. There are only a few countries in Africa or sth that have less. In the US, for example, I know people who have been visited by the FBI for criticizing the president, all of our phones are tapped, there are people on the "no-fly" list who get stripped searched in airports because they once had a phone converstation with someone who once had a phone conversation with someone in an Islamic support group.

Only in america do we have to keep hearing a report from the 1950''s or 1960''s America about "free speesch" when we are now around average in terms of free speech in thsi country.

If you criticize your corporation, telling the truth, on your blog even in after hours on your own time, you will be fired, lose your home, probably end up in dire straights. But you are "free" to do that, right. C''mon, stop the lies. the only reason I can even post to this site is because I have nothing to lose.

What kind of a ridiculouis lie is this, "free speech" in America. Why don''t you actually try writing a book, for example, that tells the truth about Jack Welch and NBC. Try to publish that.

[gunownerdan]

Dr. Ron Paul is the ONLY anti-war and pro-peace candidate running for president.
ronpaul2008.com

[jsilver2th]

She will never catch Colbert...

[glaswolf]

I agree, Hillary and Obama are both over confident and will probably crash and burn politically by the early spring. One plays the feminist card and the other is dredging up the race card, trying to pull in the one dimensional voters. I think either will lose to any half reasonable Republican. Edwards and Richardson are probably the only Democrats in the current field who could win the presidency. Rightist judeo christians attack and discount these serious oppositions guiding the demo sheeples into a Hillary or Obama fixation. If Edwards doesn''t drop out he will most likely be the front runner by the late spring of 08, as I surmise the situation. With over a year to go, it is still possible a reasonable candidate will come from the Republicans.

[incog-nito]

Another non-news article. Nobody else is saying or thinking that the Clinton camp is over-confident, except the press. Aren''t they supposed to report news, not make it up?

[Jesse Cooday]

Democrats courting all moms with this video - copy and paste - william tell overture - into YouTube ... this is the description for video - Because I Am The Mom Song...mom song william tell overture

[likeitis5050]

Hillary. When you call her on anything she says you''''re
attacking. Wow, how can you defend against that? All the sudden you hear that you''''re engaging in attack politics. Dang.

This what I mean about antagonistic politics. They aren''t out show us what THEY will do and accept open dialogue...they have to tell us how wrong or biased or incompetent the OTHERS are...any form of critique is spun as an attack. Where are the politicians who aren''t afraid of a debate on issues rather than a b..it..ch slap-fest on each other to show how much they don''t know? Obama is probably least guilty of playing this game on the Democrat''s side. As much as I want to say the same for the Republicans, I can''t.

[cfin5]

likeitis5050,....Thank you for driving home those points you made. "We the People" are indeed the Constitutional "RULERS" of this great nation. What rulers have we ever seen who do not speak theirs minds in matters at will. This is exactly what the founding fathers intended for us to do. The citizens of some other countries who are not the rulers cannot without mortal peril say the things we say whether they are right or wrong about it. Yes, we need to elect honest and wise to "serve" us in governing, protecting, arbitration, and the like. But over the years it is quite apparent that our servants have been using the "BOIL THE FROG SLOW" method of usurpation towards tyranny. We must choose wisely this election. The Constitution of the United States is in great danger. The New Hampshire debate reminds me of their state motto: "Live free or die". I say "We should always be dieing to live free so we can die free".

[Jesse Cooday]

Democrats on the grassroots level are not taking anything for granted. We have some great candidates in Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. With over 70 of American disagreeing with the way this White House is handling the war, the crowds cheering on the Democrats are not just from the Left, but from the center and even some from the right! Americans still remember that the last Democrat President gave Americans a Budget surplus! The last two elections were so close. So after reading your article, I hope you don''t mind us courting Moms of all parties with this video http://video.yahoo.com/video/play?vid=1197846

[likeitis5050]

Totally. And the media is buying into all her self-administered spin. She is not in the race to serve the people. She, like 99.9% from both parties are self-serving antagonists. There whole game is to cut down anything from outside their own camps. They are not interested in finding solutions to what Americans want...they are about keeping the flames of division stoked. I will vote for the one who steps up and says, "I will work to solve our problems, regardless where the suggestions or advice comes from and will promise to set aside what ever personal biases I might have to reach a solution that works for ALL AMERICANS...not just those in my party or from my home state." I am sick of politics that divides. I am sick of politics that defines followers as either ''neo-natzi bible bangers'' or ''democrap sheeple''. The next president I vote for will have tossed out the blue state/red state guide for addressing Americans. I''m waiting..until then I don''t care about gender, race, or religion...I just want someone who cares about Americans equally.

[cfin5]

You know folks, I''ve noticed lately that the quality of the Comments and points being made are really improving. Not to mention the potty mouthin'' for the most part. Americans like us here who love our Country the way it was established need to recruit some of our good thinking friends to start helping us. I for one can''t abide with just a one night voting booth stand every four years to exercise my 1st. Amendment rights. Things are getting worse by the day. But the Internet is still free to spend a little time to protect America from unconstitutional ideology. It gets tiresome, but sure makes you feel good pulling your patriotic weight.

[aris-d]

If you want America to be great again, you owe it to yourself to look through the politics of triangulation. You owe it to yourself to look at the substance of character. You owe it to yourself to get educated on all of the candidates'' pasts, as that is what will give you a clear picture of how they will perform in the future. You not only owe it to yourselves, you owe it to the men and women of our great military fighting to keep you safe and free. You owe it to the elderly parents that raised us and are now deciding between food and medicine. You owe it to the child that has the will, ambition and drive to succeed, but does not have the money to attend college. You owe it to the children that will inherit a polluted planet with dirty air and rising sea-levels. You owe it to the family living in their car because they lost their house`due to a devastating illness that they were either under-insured or completely uninsured to handle. You owe it to each and every one of us that believes in the American dream.
Caucus & Vote Obama ''08