Giuliani, The GOP's Shaky Front-Runner

Washingtonpost.com: Former New York Mayor Tops National Polls, But Trails In States

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Dan Balz for washingtonpost.com's blog The Trail.

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Here is a headline you never thought you'd read: "Giuliani Generates Most 'Enthusiastic' Support From Republicans."

Those words are carried atop a report about a new Gallup Poll that shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead the Republican field nationally. Superficially, the poll represents more good news for the former New York mayor, but it could almost as easily be interpreted as indicative of the fundamental instability in the Republican race.

Start with the good news for Giuliani. He leads with 32 percent and has a double-digit advantage over Fred Thompson, who runs second at 18 percent. John McCain runs third at 14 percent and Mitt Romney is fourth at 10 percent.

When Republicans were asked about possible nominees and whether they would vote for that person enthusiastically or primarily just to vote against the Democratic nominee, Giuliani comes out on top. Fifty-one percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they would vote enthusiastically for Giuliani.

Next was McCain at 38 percent, followed by Thompson at 37 percent. Romney ran a distant fourth. Just a quarter of Republicans said they would support him enthusiastically if he were the nominee, while 38 percent said they would vote for him mainly as a vote against the Democrats. Thirty percent either said they would stay home if Romney were the nominee or had no opinion about their level of enthusiasm for him.

All of this suggests Giuliani is now the national front-runner for the Republican nomination. Certainly his rivals have begun to treat him as such. Last week's debate in Dearborn, Mich., saw Romney go after Giuliani over his conservative credentials. Last night, Thompson challenged Giuliani in the mayor's backyard, arguing that he and not Giuliani is the true conservative in the race.

The question is whether Giuliani is a secure frontrunner, or a frontrunner in any sense other than national polls, which can be unreliable indicators at this point in the race. The Gallup poll highlights one potential problem. The longer the campaign has gone on, the less favorably the public sees Giuliani.

His current favorable rating among all Americans is at 49 percent, down from 62 percent in May. He's at 66 percent among Republicans, but has dropped 15 points since May. He's also dropped 15 points among Democrats.

Giuliani's favorable ratings are still higher than those of other Republicans -- considerably higher than either Romney's or Thompson's. But can he avoid further deterioration as the Republican campaign intensifies? His advisers believe that is possible but only because they see potential risk for everyone in a multi-candidate battle in which attacks are flying in different directions.

The other red flag is the contrast between Giuliani's national numbers and his standing in the earliest states. Giuliani hopes to finesse Iowa, where he now runs behind Romney and Thompson But can the person described as the national frontrunner for the GOP nomination afford a weak third-place or fourth-place finish in Iowa? Can the national frontrunner then afford a loss in New Hampshire a few days later?

Giuliani advisers believe the answer is yes to both. They see Iowa as somewhat diminished this year, in part because there is so much attention there on the Democratic race. In New Hampshire, they have long argued that a solid second behind Romney will be enough to keep Giuliani moving forward toward the later states that he is building his nomination hopes around.

But others, in rival campaigns, believe Giuliani must win New Hampshire if he does poorly in Iowa. Although he will claim it is a state better suited to Romney because of proximity to Massachusetts, or McCain by virtue of his 2000 victory there, Giuliani should know that candidates who built their appeal on electability in a general election are expected to demonstrate that strength in the primaries.

Giuliani campaign manager Mike DuHaime said in an email message Tuesday that the Gallup findings on enthusiasm show the former mayor's potential to rally a demoralized party.

"In an environment that seems to favor Democrats in 2008, the party deserves a candidate that can unite and energize the entire party," he said. "These numbers suggest Rudy is the candidate best positioned to keep red states red and go on offense in traditionally Democrat states."

The Giuliani team believes that as long as Republicans are persuaded that Giuliani will be a strong general election candidate, they will forgive his social liberalism and embrace him as the party's best hope to win in 2008. The national polls suggest that to be the case -- but the nomination battle still must go through the states.

A strategist in a rival campaign said the contrast between Giuliani's national numbers and his standing in early states hints at a possible train wreck if the former mayor stumbles badly early. But the same strategist acknowledged that the path to the nomination for Giuliani is no less implausible than it is for the other leading candidates.

So for now, the headline stands: Republicans are expressing enthusiasm for the candidate who nine months ago looked implausible as the person to lead a conservative party. Giuliani should enjoy the acclaim -- and then run his campaign as if he is behind in most of the early states. Which is exactly where he is.

[sftodd]

Just look at the Red Sox, for goodness sakes.LOL!
Posted by jack3213 at 09:53 AM : Oct 17, 2007

Just look at the Bush Administration, for goodness sakes!!! LOL! "I''m the decider!" Sorry, Jackie, there ain''t nothing overconfident about knowing that the repugs are going down in 2008 -- they better recognize, okay? They do recognize. Haven''t you seen the rats scurrying to distance themselves from Bush? -- He''s so toxic they won''t even feed him his lines anymore. They''ve hung the poor fool out to dry. LOL!

[hwy71so]

What''s messed up is, he''s NOT GOP. He''s a democrat plain and simple.

Take a hike Rude...

[gunownerdan]

Dr. Ron Paul is the ONLY pro-peace and pro-liberty candidate running for president.
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[dutchfarmer]

The brain-dead reporters of the news industry continually kiss Gudy Riuliani''s butt. This guy is an immoral thug. He is a cheap opportunist of the tragedy of 911. Guys like him would sell their own mother for a nickle and they will sell their own country for a dime. Ron Paul is the only sane choice for the Republican nominee. Vote Ron Paul for President.

[jack3213]

Oh, & Greco99: Aren''t you talking about Clinton in your 4 part descriptions, it certainly fits the mold! LOL

[jack3213]

The Liberal people and the media are getting nervous, they can''t even allow themselves the same pleasure of writing an article about a Republican without some kind of scepticism. Unlike their boasting over the "over the top-confident" articles about Clinton. Does anyone know or even realize where "over confidenc"e gets you? Just look at the Red Sox, for goodness sakes.LOL!

[greco99-2009]

Also, Ron Paul does have strong support everywhere here in Iowa with an amazing number of signs. Even (and especially) in rural areas off the beaten track.

But, he will have trouble going beyond 20-30%.

However, by attacking him the repulicans are permanently alienating a core base constituentcy of libertarian leaning republicans.

[greco99-2009]

This Iowa poll seems to have a different result.

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071007/NEWS09/71005048/-1/iowapoll07&lead=1

I think Huckabee support will increase. Thompson could do well here, but maybe he is sick -- he seems to be fading fast. Thompson support is somewhat a proxy for ''undecided''.

Many conservatives here would never, ever vote for Rudy - even against Hillary. Since ''06 Iowa has dem governor, and both houses. People are really very angry with Bush, and fed up with lies and corruption.

[rev0lution]

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[greco99-2009]

There are several core problems with Rudy''s campaign that will become much worse with time.

1. He is am obnoxious personality. Look at how much his ex-wives and the people of NY hate him. He would lose NYC to Hillary more than 3-1. When you hear him speak -- especially to non New Yorkers it can become painful.

2. He has a huge track of blatent lies and corruption. He thought he was at the WTC site ''more than the workers there''. But, in reality he was there for a few visits (and spent more time at Yankee games). Look at Kerik for a good example of deep corruption.

3. He stands for nothing. He shifts his positions regularly. He does not support core conservative values.

4. He will, of course, lose in the real Blue states like NY. And, he will do worse than expected in the rural red states (like my home in Iowa, where we do not like him). Rural people will come to particularly despise him.