A Ray Of Light For GOP

Politico: Special Election In Mass. Is Unexpectedly Close

(The Politico)  This story was written by Josh Kraushaar.

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The working-class towns along Massachusetts’ Merrimack River are an unlikely setting for a potential election shocker that could provide one of the few Republican rays of hope in 2007.

But operatives from both parties acknowledge that Tuesday’s special election match-up between Republican Jim Ogonowski and Democrat Niki Tsongas, to replace retiring Rep. Martin Meehan (D), is unexpectedly close - and that an Ogonowski victory, or even a close call, could give other GOP candidates some important tips on how to win in 2008. 

Ogonowski, a farmer, retired Air Force lieutenant colonel and brother of the pilot of American Flight 11, the first plane to hit the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, has predictably distanced himself from President Bush and the unpopular war in Iraq. 

But he has also added a theme that could help GOP hopefuls next year, particularly those competing for open seats: a relentless chorus of complaints about the competency of Congress and the culture of Washington in general. 

“This election is clearly a referendum on our Congress - it’s not working for us,” Ogonowski said in an interview last week. “I’ve been asking every single group I meet in front of, ‘Anyone here like the job Congress is doing?’ I have yet to have a person in the Fifth District tell me they like it.” 

As a Republican running in a solidly Democratic district that hasn’t elected a Republican since 1972, Ogonowski faces a decidedly tough challenge. He lost the fundraising battle by at least 4 to 1: As of Sept. 26, Tsongas had raised $1.93 million, compared with $434,000 for Ogonowski. 

But his anti-Washington message, his decision to downplay his Republican affiliation and his compelling biography appear to have put him within striking distance of Tsongas. 

The final polls in the race showed Tsongas, the widow of the late Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas (also a former Fifth District congressman), leading in the mid- to high single digits. Political observers here say the race will hinge on which side can most effectively turn out voters in an off-year special election. 

There couldn’t be a bigger contrast between the two candidates’ campaigns. While Tsongas casts the election as a referendum on Bush’s policies - a strategy that worked for many Democratic candidates in 2006 - Ogonowski aggressively portrays himself as a populist outsider in an effort to meet the new mood that seems to be enveloping the national electorate: a pox on all houses in Washington. 

Chomping on a ham-and-cheese omelet at the local Dream diner, he told well-wishers stopping by that he’s running because of the mess in Washington and referred to Tsongas as “Queen Niki,” suggesting that she feels entitled to the House seat.

Ogonowski also switched from the standard 2006 GOP playbook by emphasizing two issues he believes will play well in the district: extending Bush’s tax cuts and fighting illegal immigration. 

Tsongas, meanwhile, has no qualms associating herself with her party’s leadership. 

She brought in former President Bill Clinton and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for fundraisers, netting the campaign about $225,000. 

The state’s leading political icon, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.), campaigned with her last Wednesday, touting her opposition to the war in Iraq and support for the children’s health insurance legislation that Bush vetoed. 

“I can imagine no better way to begin my service in Congress than to go to Washington and vote to override that veto,” Tsongas said. Her campaign has criticized Ogonowski for not taking a firm position on the SCHIP bill. 

“All of us understand how important this race is. The eyes of Massachusetts, the eyes of the country are on this race,” Kenndy said, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Tsongas at a Haverhill diner. 

Tsongas supports setting a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. Ogonowski has called the invasion of Iraq a mistake but says a withdrawal of U.S. forces would be “cowardly” until Iraq is stabilized. 

Tsongas’ emphasis on core Democratic issues would normally be a clear winner in a district that voted for presidential nominees John Kerry and Al Gore by large margins. 

But there also is a strain of populism evident among blue-collar voters in the district. Call them Reagan Democrats - they may be against the war and for government programs, but they’re suspicious of candidates with upscale backgrounds, and also may find Ogonowski’s stands on tax cuts and immigration attractive. 

At the federal level, the district has shown its anti-elitist tendencies. President Ronald Reagan won here twice by comfortable margins. The district voted for President George H.W. Bush over home-state governor Michael Dukakis in 1988. 

Kerry lost his first congressional campaign here in 1972, running against an opponent who highlighted his congressional testimony against the Vietnam War. 

The most recent polls in the race show Ogonowski trailing by narrow margins. A SurveyUSA poll released last week shows Tsongas maintaining a 51 percent to 42 percent lead over Ogonowski. The automated poll surveyed 457 likely voters from Oct. 8 to 10. 

An internal Republican poll conducted in early October shows the race even tighter - with Tsongas leading Ogonowski by only five points, 44 percent to 39 percent. 

Given that turnout is notoriously unpredictable in special elections, neither campaign is taking anything for granted. Both campaigns are struggling to ensure that frequent voters know there is a special election today - and not in November, when the rest of the local elections are held. 

In the final week before the election, both campaigns have also been hitting the airwaves reinforcing their themes. 

Ogonowski launched a biographical advertisement featuring a photo of his brother’s hijacked plane hitting the World Trade Center on Sept. 11. In the ad, his sister-in-law, Peg, said that Ogonowski “came in and just stepped right up to the bat” after the terrorist attack to help his brother’s family. 

“It is one of the better ads I’ve ever seen - including presidential races,” said Massachusetts GOP consultant Holly Robichaud. 

Tsongas’ latest advertisements emphasize her desire to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq, and accuse Ogonowski of wanting to keep troops in Iraq “indefinitely.” 

She also has benefited from third-party groups advertising on her behalf. EMILY’s List, which supports female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights, spent $125,000 on radio ads in the region linking Ogonowski with Bush. 

The Service Employees International Union’s political action committee aired an advertisement criticizing Ogonowski’s position on the SCHIP legislation. 

Ogonowski is hoping that, despite being outspent significantly, his tireless campaigning and populist message will prevail. Between door-to-door canvassing in Lowell, he grew animated when talking about his opponent’s high-powered support. 

“Look at her campaign - when I think of who she’s bringing in, I have to focus to the left. Bill Clinton, Pelosi, Kerry, Kennedy, Barney Frank!” said Ogonowski, nearly falling over as he leaned to the left.
It is an unconventional attack in a district that itself has so often tilted to the Democratic side. 

But if it works, it could embolden a whole new crop of GOP candidates to take a page out of Ogonowski’s anti-Washington playbook.

[sftodd]

The next President will be a Democrat.
Chose wisely. Chose Richardson.
Posted by aldee41 at 05:20 PM : Oct 16, 2007

Aldee41 -- you will have more credibility if you start spelling "choose" correctly.

[jack3213]

To Fed Up:
1. Turned the first budget surplus we had had in many years into the largest deficit in history.
And I bet you''re just waiting to pay a *** load in taxes?

2. Restarted the cold war. Such nonsense. If it weren''t for this war, you would be dead by now

3. Turned a worldly outcry of support for the USA into a world that hates the USA.
The only ones who hate the USA are those who are scared of freedom

4. Entrenched us in an unjust war based on faulty and manufactured intelligence.
MORE BS

5. Created an environment of paranoia and fear unsurpassed in my lifetime.
It is self imposed. Get over it.

WOW what a great President... Yes he is.

[bareemperor]

Was Diebold involved?

[bareemperor]

The only ''Ray of Light'' for Republicans would be if the GOP identified and indicted all NeoCon Bu$h supporters before the elections. The Democrats, many Republicans and the rest of the world are disgusted with greed and lies. So many of our elected officials have filled their pockets with defense money that they cannot just back away from Bu$h, they are hooked - and probably being blackmailed, one and all. Fascist regimes are dangerous, and deadly - and the back must be broken legally...

[inventagod]

NeoCons and their supporters in the RepubliCon Congress have stolen the Presidency from any GOP hopeful for generations - until the Bu$h National Debt is paid down by your grandchildren...

[speakinup]

simonsez40 - I believe the seat that this person is filling will be in the house of representatives, not the senate.

Although, sweeping the Senate out would be good too!

[aldee41]

The next President will be a Democrat.
Chose wisely. Chose Richardson.

[simonsez40]

If you think one guy that MIGHT be decent will change the senate then you''re off your rocker - it has to be SWEEPING changes and we vote em all out or nothing will happen.........

[jn122736]

Ron Paul Posters never debate actual issues or answer direct questions; they just post false and/or unachievable claims.

Why did he vote FOR Tax cuts in time of war, which he had to know would double the national debt, therefore actually increasing our taxes?

How will he pay off the national debt, or will he let it continue to financially bleed us to death with $1/2 trillion interest payments EVERY YEAR?



If he does not intend to end tax supported government or the military, as we know it, (along with all other federal spending necessities) yet will end income tax, he will simply raise the money with other taxes like sales taxes which would eliminate practically 95% of taxes for the rich while increasing taxes on the working class by an equal percentage.

Ron Paul = republican = stay the course = borrow (actually increasing taxes) and spend.

[sparks224]

"The GOP could steal a Democratic seat...."

The key word there is "steal".
Since the Republicans don%u2019t believe in democracy, I%u2019m sure they have no intention of winning the seat legitimately.

[abbe91]

Another "ray of light" ...

http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071013/GPG0101/710130528/1207/GPGnews

[gunownerdan]

Dr. Ron Paul is the only anti-war and pro-liberty candidate running for president.
ronpaul2008.com

[realpatriot1]

He''s willing to distance himself from the war in Iraq. That''s the ray of hope which few republicans are yet willing to grasp.

That''s why they have no hope.

[ov442]

considering that congress and the white house have been incompetent for at least 7 yrs now, and congress has only just become Democratically controlled as of this January, i cant see how bringing up incompetence of Congress is good for Republicans since they have been the pork fat, earmark, pro war, no oversight, no good judgement on appointees, and no following the constitution all under Republican rule and dominance.

I can see the only solution to our nations'' problems is to rid the white house of Republican skullduggery, and clean out the Congress of republican Blockers so the dems can pass their legislation and our country can start to improve finally after the last 7 yrs of disaster.

[briannorwood]

Ray of light for the GOP? Ya think?

NOT!

[pastdue1]

%u2018Anyone here like the job Congress is doing?%u2019 I have yet to have a person in the Fifth District tell me they like it.%u201D
Surely this doesn''t validate the GOP . After all, until 2004, this congress had a big republican majority who kowtowed to everything the administration wanted and now it has a slim democrat majority., who is trying to re establish oversight. That alone, should tell people something. Do the voters imagine that going back to a GOP legislature will improve Congress''s performance?

[antoniof123]

A ray of hope for the GOP you have got to be kidding me. Too close to call, I am thinking they don''t want to call it.