Dems Must Woo White Men To Win

Politico: Flight Of White Male Voters Away From Democrats Will Shape 2008 Election

(The Politico)  This story was written by David Paul Kuhn.

---

The 2008 election offers the most diverse array of presidential candidates in history. But this rainbow campaign will hinge on the most durable reality of American politics: White men matter most.

Every election cycle, a new slice of the electorate - suburban mothers, churchgoing Hispanics, bicycling Norwegians - comes into vogue as reporters and analysts study the polls and try to divine new secrets about who wins and why in American politics.

The truth is that the most important factor shaping the 2008 election will almost certainly be the same one that has been the most important in presidential elections for the past 40 years: the flight of white male voters away from the Democratic Party.

The hostility of this group to Democrats and their perceived values is so pervasive that even many people who make their living in politics scarcely remark on it. But it is the main reason the election 13 months from now is virtually certain to be close - even though on issues from the war to health care, Democrats likely will be competing with more favorable tail winds than they have enjoyed for years.

The "gender gap" has been a fixture in discussions about American politics since the early Reagan years. But it is usually cast as a matter of women being turned off by Republicans. By far the greater part of this gap, however, comes from the high number of white men - who make up about 36 percent of the electorate - who refuse to even consider voting Democratic.

In 2000, exit polling showed white women backed George W. Bush over Al Gore by 3 percentage points, but white men backed him by 27 percentage points. Four years later, with John F. Kerry carrying the Democratic banner, the margin was 26 points.

The Bush years have echoed with what-if questions: What if the votes in Florida had been counted differently in 2000, if Ralph Nader had not run or if Gore had been able to carry his home state? What if Kerry had responded more deftly to the Swift Boat Veterans in 2004?

A more powerful what-if is to imagine that Democratic nominees had succeeded in narrowing the white male gap to even the low 20s instead of the mid-20s. Both Kerry and Gore would have won easily.

In 2008, Democrats are assembling behind a front-runner, Hillary Rodham Clinton, with singular problems among white males. Polls show her support among this group is approaching the record lows scored by Democrats during the peak of Ronald Reagan's popularity in the 1980s. Some recent hypothetical matchups - which are highly fluid at this stage of a contest - showed Clinton winning roughly a third of white males in a race against Republican Rudy Giuliani.

In the past three decades, the only two Democrats to win the presidency, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, were politicians who organized campaigns around rhetorical and ideological pitches that were designed to reassure voters skeptical of liberal values - an attitude that dominates among white males. Even these victories, however, took place amid special circumstances, with the Watergate backlash of 1976 and the Ross Perot independent boom undermining Republicans in 1992.

Despite this history, so far none of the Democratic candidates has fashioned a program or message that seems calculated to reverse the flow of white males away from the party. One of the party's politicians who has thought most about the problem chose not to make the race in 2008.

Over the past two generations, said former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, "there was a morphing of the Democratic Party from a sense of a common good or a common commitment to each other as fellow citizens to being an advocate for groups. And I think that Democrats were advocates for every other group except for white males."

The problem with this approach is that it leaves virtually no margin for error. To win national elections, Democrats need to win nearly all of the African-American vote, a substantial majority of Hispanics and at least come close to winning half of white women. (Democrats have not actually commanded a majority of white women since 1964.)

One of the Democrats' top experts on political demography, Mark Gersh, has pondered how this math affects the most fought-over prize of recent elections, the 20 electoral votes in Ohio. "Gore got 90 percent of the black vote; you are not going to do better than that," Gersh said. He adds that Kerry earned 88 percent, as well. "So how are you going to win? I have this theory that the only way he could win the state was by really jumping the numbers up in Democratic performance in blue-collar northeastern Ohio."

"Concern for the common man"

Easy enough to say. But actually achieving this feat in Ohio and elsewhere for Democrats requires reckoning with political attitudes that have had several decades to take root - and are twisted not simply around policies but also deep cultural and economic shifts.

Trying to understand this history is what led to "The Neglected Voter: White Men and the Democratic Dilemma." The idea for the book began during the 2004 election, when I was traveling the country for CBS News. Many of these men, even three years ago, had lost their patience for the Iraq war. Often they had obvious reservations about George W. Bush. But it was made clear in conversations the contempt they felt for Democrats - and felt in return from Democrats. For these voters, it was an election with no real competition for their votes.

As I later learned, this was precisely the circumstance that some Republican strategists had vividly anticipated a quarter-century earlier.

Early in Ronald Reagan's 1980 campaign, his pollster Richard Wirthlin wrote a book-length campaign plan - never previously obtained - detailing a strategy expressly designed to "break up" the Democratic coalition. To "target the populist voter," the campaign would work toward the "development of the aspiring American populist theme of 'anti-bigness - big government, big business, big labor.'" The media messages were to be "simple, direct and optimistic." They were to focus on "blue collar" voters utilizing "principal themes" that "project a realization that these voters are no longer solely motivated by economic concerns but by larger social issues, as well."

It was an idea that informed not simply the 1980 campaign but also the next 25 years of GOP strategy. It was to "position [Reagan] as a doer, a man of action," the "decisive leader capable of making tough decisions." But above all, Reagan was to "solidify a public impression" that he "has concern for the common man and understands the problems facing voters in their daily lives."

It was Wirthlin who first coined the term "gender gap." But once "the press ran with the idea - the question they always asked was, 'Why is Reagan doing so poorly among women?' But that's only one blade of the scissors. The question I was always interested in was, 'Why was Reagan doing so well among men?'" he says. "It's been a mystery to me for 25 years why that wasn't recognized."

From 1980 on, Democrats never won more than 38 of every 100 white men who voted. Soon Republicans seemed to own masculinity itself.

[forthepeopl1]

americans need to pick a president that has no ties whats oh over in the state or fed governemnt..then and only than will we get back america

[klingon69]

D@mn, CBS. Must be a slow news day. Anybody can see this. Many people not just white males(let''s bring race back in to politics)but all races are becoming disinfrancised with the democrats, also with the repubs. It seems like the modern democrat party is so turned to the liberal left, just like the repubs are so religious right. These are both extremes and have lost the support of alot of their core voters. What we need is a moderate party. One made of ex-rep/dem that are more middle of the road, more in tune with the tax-paying legal voting citizenry of the US. More in-line with what everyday Americans want.

[bobgee_1999]

Actually, Dems merely need to woo white STUPID men. The intelligent ones are already on their side, but of course, we have always been a minority.

[jon_mccain]

They want a message that resonates with white male voters?? How about starting with outsourcing, this issue has cost many white male voters their jobs. Next, they can talk about guest worker programs in an economy that created -4000 jobs last month.

[gunownerdan]

With 80,000,000 gun owners in America, it would be wise for the democrats not to have so many rabid anti-gun extremists running for president.

[actornaught]

"...Dems merely need to woo white STUPID men..."

hahaha... I was thinking ''bigoted white men'', but it''s pretty much the same group.

[rushlimpdrug]

Blocking the black vote and disallowing other votes makes a great fix for a presidential election.
Of course no one in America would be so helll bent on being that evil.

[clestes-2009]

"Sen. Pete Domenici is expected to announce Thursday that he will not seek re-election"

Another rep dinosauer bites the dust! That is 4 now who will not run. Anyone want to guess the odds on the oldest dino of them all Ted Stevens giving up the race??

Considering he is under investigation for having charged the state for home improvements (a slam dunk!) and other improper stuff and will be 85 next year, I bet he will bow out.

I can hear the dem opponent now "That Bridge to Nowhere money waster with our national debt approaching trillions..."

You get the drift, I''m sure.

[adventurepa]

White men who have followed the huge mistakes of the republicans would never vote for republicans ever again.
"If your not pissedoff, you have not been paying attention!!!!!!!!"
The canidian dollar is worth more than Americas dollar.
We have lost our rights.
The administration is spying on America.
The administration has lied so many times we have lost count.
Bushes buddies make all the money with no bid contracts.
They have lost all credability to the average white man paying attention.
However I think Obama is the better candidate for America. Now he just needs to explain why!

[huskerarmy]

As a white male myself who interacts with other white males, I find it hard to disassociate the thread of intolerance that so often reveals itself in the discourse from that lean to the right. The Dems must attract those white males who are legitimately concerned about the health and wellbeing of the nation, and leave those who merely want to maintain their competitive (white, male) advantage to the GOP.

[gunownerdan]

With someone like Dr. Ron Paul running for president, the Democrats don''t stand a chance!
ronpaul2008.com

[realpatriot1]

If we can just lock up the bicycling Norweigans and the
church-going Hispanics we won''t need the white males.

I guess the soccer moms have been relegated to the trashpile along with the Christian Coalition, the unions, The NRA, feminists,etc.

How about appealing to all of us as Americans.

I guess those inside the beltway types do so much pandering to special intererests in Washington that they don''t know how else to relate to the masses.

[mudrose-2009]

Help, Help, take your hands off me! I won''t go I tell you, I won''t go. No, no, Helllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllp!

[clestes-2009]

The only thing that is going to determine this election is Iraq. It is the number 1 hot issue hands down.

It determined the outcome in 2006 when the reps LOST EVERY SINGLE SEAT and it will determine the 2008 elections as well.

There are still 13 months left to go and Iraq is going to keep going down, down, down and drag the rep party with it. Surge or no surge Iraq is a boiling cauldron. Without political reconciliation it will boil over again and again and again.

whites, blacks, hispanics men and women, in short all Americans, are united on this single issue. You don''t get poll results that say 72% of all Americans asked say the US is on the wrong road, without consensus.

That is the feeling is what is going to determine who wins next year.

[signof4]

''Dems Must Woo White Men To Win''

OMG....say it ain''t so!? Can''t wait to see how they''re gonna do that! Here''s a suggestion: Since white men pay most of the taxes in this country, how about you quit trying to raise our taxes?

That would be a GOOD start!!! And DON''T LIE!!!!

[ablesch]

a vote for hillary is a vote for the clintons. it''s not really a vote for a woman in her own right.

[vet999999]

"...Dems merely need to woo white STUPID men..."

hahaha... I was thinking ''''bigoted white men'''', but it''''s pretty much the same group.

This really worries me. This is the narrow minded environment our kids are growing up in. They are gowing up hating, no vision of a future and so self centered that nothing matters except them. You are teaching this to your kids and they will carry it with them forever. What a real shame that we allowed the media and politicians cut society up into small chunks and them legitimized intolerance and hatred.

[jon_mccain]

Since white men pay most of the taxes in this country, how about you quit trying to raise our taxes?...

And you don''t believe that Bush''s trillion dollar war bill will ever come home to roost, or do you still believe Iraqi oil profits with a little help from the tooth fairy will keep our taxes from ever going up?

[name_verify]

Libs f*cked it up again.

[condumism]

Yep, every Reagan democrat I know is a white male, dumb and arrogant and as self-centered as just about any Southern Fascist White male that I know, too. Tell them about the irrespnisble polices of the GOP Fascists, and they just look at me like Zombies. Cuz that is exactly what these fools are, the walking dead.

[badbrown126]

The problem with the Democrats is that they always portray white men as the bad guy. Thats it. Nothing more complex. Regardless of what we do we suck.

Think about it ... the Jena6 jump a white male striking him on the head from behind knocking him uunconcisous. They then beat the white male putting him in the ER.

And liberals march for the Jena6. Gosh ... this is complex.

[hypnotoad72]

Which ones? The sort like Bill Gates, or the sort like Bill Hoobiedoobie?

[clestes-2009]

This has to be one of the dumber articles written about next year''s elections.

If this is a preview of the intelligence level of opinions, I am going to spend a lot of time sniggering quietly in my cube, reading this BS to just get a laugh!

[one_american]

ConDumism:

You get that look from conservatives because they know that they are looking at a fool of the first order - you''re not winning the hearts and minds of anyone with your stupidity.

Keep it up.

[hypnotoad72]

b48151 - has it occurred to you that even hard, smart working people can lose their jobs only to not find another? What''s going on today isn''t limited to do-nothing bums, I''m sorry to say.

That''s not to say there aren''t any bums out there...

Nor is this a blind response to have people vote for a Democrat. But as it''s clear the major candidates on both sides are for continuing the war (a war that, once people look at the big picture, would be more inclined to agree with - such as the Dem candidates), the issues people need to look at are more domestic. and what we can do to improve things.

All I know is that McCain has been insulting towards America''s middle class; the $50/hr lettuce picking jive talk. I thought we were a country united? Or doesn''t he see us as people?

[oscarez]

"Recently, in a conversation with veteran liberal strategist James Carville, I raised the popular belief within the liberal base that Democrats should ignore their weaknesses with white men and the South. Carville scoffed and called it an "idiotic argument."

A woman or a black cannot win the south. Edwards is the best hope for the Democrats to win the White House.

[condumism]

Tell White males about the irresponsible polices of the GOP Fascists, and they just look at me like Zombies. Cuz that is exactly what these fools are, the walking dead. Conservatism is also social inbreeding, learned behavior at home from their parents as children. Know why Indiana is the only red state in the Midwest? Because everybody there that gets a college education becomes liberal minded, a catches the first plane out of the state, permanently, after they graduate.

[jon_mccain]

A woman or a black cannot win the south. Edwards is the best hope for the Democrats to win the White House.
Posted by Oscarez

I have been saying this all along. In head to head polling on real clear politics, Edwards matches up best to all Republican candidates. The GOP knows this, that is why considerable time and money has been spent attacking Edwards while ignoring top tier Hillary and Obama.

[votepaul12]

*** STOP THE WAR & END CORPORATE CORRUPTION ***

Who Is Paying For Your Vote To Keep Control Of You And To Keep This War Going? Remember The Bankers Hold The Stock In Companies That Are Getting Billions In War Contracts!
Obama''s Contributers: Bankers / Special interest!
http://tinyurl.com/2nd4f8

Hillary Clinton''s Contributers Lawyers / RealEstate:
http://tinyurl.com/2ontpq

Rudy GIULIANI Contributors: Bankers / Hedge Funds!
http://tinyurl.com/2m2c4n

Ron Pauls Money Is From the People! We have someone who is NOT Paid Off By Special Interest or Bankers Money!!!
http://tinyurl.com/2q8vr3

If you ever want this War to End Vote Ron Paul 2008, No One Else Is Going To End It!
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/issues

Ron Paul Will:

** Stop Iraq War Immediately
** Eliminate IRS
** Eliminate Federal Reserve
** Eliminate Government Wasteful Spending
** Restore America''s Work Force & Values
** Restore America''s Freedom!

RON PAUL RAISES $5.1 MILLION 3RD Q!

It''s Not About Democrat Or Republican. It Is About
the People And Ron Paul Is America''s Last Hope!

********* VOTE RON PAUL 2008! *********

Join A ReVoLuTiOn Group In Your City:
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/cities/

[klingon69]

The only thing that is going to determine this election is Iraq. It is the number 1 hot issue hands down.

It determined the outcome in 2006 when the reps LOST EVERY SINGLE SEAT and it will determine the 2008 elections as well.

There are still 13 months left to go and Iraq is going to keep going down, down, down and drag the rep party with it. Surge or no surge Iraq is a boiling cauldron. Without political reconciliation it will boil over again and again and again.

whites, blacks, hispanics men and women, in short all Americans, are united on this single issue. You don''''t get poll results that say 72% of all Americans asked say the US is on the wrong road, without consensus.

That is the feeling is what is going to determine who wins next year.
Posted by clestes at 10:56 AM : Oct 04, 2007

What you say may well be true, howeverr, I think there will be many other topics broached to determine the winner. Yes Iraq is a cess pool, it is a maelstrom sucking the soldiers, money, gear...etc into itself. The immigration problems will also be a hotseat topic that helps determine the winner, as well as the outsourcing of jobs, and many other items.

[condumism]

Posted by tuckerndfw
I am a white guy and consider feminism the most corrosive movement that ever came down the pike.
I wouldn''''t vote for Hillary Clinton if someone paid me a million dollars.

What exactly is the pike? Is that kind of like Neocon speak? See what I mean? White male conservatives are that way do to social inbreeding, a Conservative family value.

[jon_mccain]

as well as the outsourcing of jobs
Posted by Klingon69

It''s funny how this topic has made its way into the work place, and into discussions around the dinner table, but is being ignored by both parties. Just 2 months ago both sides were proclaiming the need to expand the guest worker programs.

[softspoken99]

Well, as far as femdom goes, thats a load of ***. Unless you were born without a mother, you know full well what feminism is, and are completely capable of understanding it.

And secondly, there''s no lack of manhood in this country. In fact the manhoods around here are so abundantly clear that people think its normal to be a pervert.

[vancouverboo]

Their log-term victory strategy was crafted by George Bush and the Rich People, the naturalization of the illegals. Their greed for cheap labor will make them a permanent minority party. (They don''t stop breeding when they get here, you know)

[jsmithcsa]

"White men matter most."

''Bout time we had our turn to be cool. ;)

"But it is usually cast as a matter of women being turned off by Republicans."

Be careful, the left is hammering Ann Coulter for making that same argument!

"By far the greater part of this gap, however, comes from the high number of white men - who make up about 36 percent of the electorate - who refuse to even consider voting Democratic."

Yep -- ''nuff said.

[canyoutellme-2009]

Uh.. i''m a white male... and i''ve NEVER been republican... virtually all of my white male friends are also NON-Republicans... this article makes it seem like all white males hate democrats...***?

[softspoken99]

Justice *is* feminine. Justice? Civility? And Civilization.

[hwy71so]

I think they need to worry about the important issues more than whether a man is white, black, green, purple or orange (red or blue). The Democrats do have a tendancy to alienate people based on social status and racial background. They are also constantly stuffing their pockets crying, "what about the po folk?" Just look at Kerry and Ted (the "gentlemen" from Massachusetts).

I''d encourage all men to vote for anyone other than a Democrat for that very reason.

[gunownerdan]

Democrats would be quite stupid to ignore the gun vote and push their rabidly anti-gun "front runners".

Self Defense - A BASIC HUMAN RIGHT
http://www.a-human-right.com

Liberals With Guns
http://www.liberalswithguns.com/index.html

Amendment II Democrats
http://www.a2dems.net/

Pro Gun Progressive
http://www.progunprogressive.com/

The Gun Toting Liberal
http://www.guntotingliberal.com/

[condumism]

Posted by tuckerndfw
Given your demonstrated illiteracy, it''''s amusing that you so arrogantly whine about someone else''''s presumed lack of intellect.

Your inbred conservatism makes you too easy of a target. Get used to it, White Southern Male Fascist!

[signof4]

A woman or a black cannot win the south. Edwards is the best hope for the Democrats to win the White House.
Posted by Oscarez at 11:24 AM : Oct 04, 2007

If that''s true, democrats haven''t got a prayer. Like McCain, Edwards is self destructing...thank God.

[klingon69]

After those funds are all gone and 100% of taxes collected go for paying interest on debt the question is what do we do now?
Posted by rharrin1 at 11:02 AM : Oct 04, 2007

A gun might be helpful in that case. The second admendment is in place to give ordinary citizens the ability to protect all the other admendments.

[clestes-2009]

tuckerndfw,

Where did I say I would vote for Hillary?? I haven''t made any decision as to that at this point.

No matter how it is disguised, Iraq keeps popping up like a returning cancer, which is what it is really. A cancer that is eating away at rep support day by day, month after month.

By next Nov, the patient(the rep party) is going to be DOA.

Klingon69,

Yes, there are other issues. And they will be discussed, but mark my words, something bad is going to happen in Iraq probably right around the time the first troops come home.

It has happened before in late 2005 when troops were to come home. The Sunni mosque was bombed and all hell broke loose in 2006.

Care to wager against it happening again???? I wouldn''t if I were you. You would lose.

[signof4]

Your inbred conservatism makes you too easy of a target. Get used to it, White Southern Male Fascist!
Posted by ConDumism at 11:46 AM : Oct 04, 2007

Wus up, negro? Don''t be hate''n! :) Still trying to use those big ''cracka'' words, huh? Better watch out! Da bruthas are gonna accuse you of ''goin white.'' LOL

[condumism]

Posted by tuckerndfw
You represent feminists very well.

I am married to one of the leaders of feminist movement from the early 70s. The extremist elements of feminism are no different than the extremist elements that now control the Republicon Party. Difference now is there are few extemist feminsts, while the GOP is so extreme that no independents, and many moderate Republicons will not be voting GOP in 2008. Reagan democrats are finally back in the Dem fold.

[rationall7]

Just a few years ago Bush and company tried to take away over-time pay from the white male, maybe the white male will vote repubican so a second attempt can be made, maybe two tries will be a charm.

[lloydbest1]

Posted by tuckerndfw at 11:29 AM

I''m not so sure. After all, it was women who sank the ERA, not us men.

Besides, a little "wussification" may not be such a bad idea when you consider some of the inane macho drivel that shows up on these posts. In any case masculine expression is more a hard-wire issue than a cultural one so good luck trying to socilaize that out.

My wife and my female friends are not in the least like the Amazons that Tucker describes - even the one or two who are up to the "l" in homos%xual. If they were I would have as little to do with them as I would with the present panhandlers in the White House.

As for Hillary.....I wouldn''t touch her with a barge pole, either; and if she does get the Democratic nod, whether I vote for her or throw up my hands and move to the Falklands will largely depend on who she chooses as her running mate.

[signof4]

Bet tucker believes he''''s real good pals with Dumbya.
Posted by parrots7 at 11:53 AM : Oct 04, 2007

''If Democrats Had Any Brains, They''d Be Republicans'' - Ann Coulter

Can I send you a copy of her new book? :)

[lars008-2009]

VOTE FOR JEFFERSON,,, VOTE AGAINST FASCIST NAZI TERRORISLAM,,, VOTE GOP,,,

dnc are like john adams and want to give the jihadist their lunch money hoping they will leave us alone,,,

gop are like thomas jefferson and want to spend their lunch money on weapons and go kick the jihadists in their arses,,,

What Thomas Jefferson learned from the Muslim book of jihad,,,

Thomas Jefferson knew about fascist nazi islam,,, he killed plenty of them,,,

In 1786 Jefferson and John Adams went to negotiate with Tripoli''s envoy to London, Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman or (Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja). They asked him by what right he extorted money and took slaves. Jefferson reported to Secretary of State John Jay, and to the Congress:

The ambassador answered us that [the right] was founded on the Laws of the Prophet (Mohammed), that it was written in their Koran, that all nations who should not have answered their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as prisoners, and that every Mussulman who should be slain in battle was sure to go to heaven.[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War
http://www.usvetdsp.com/jan07/jeff_quran.htm
muslim justifies slavery and piracy%u2026
http://www.hawaiireporter.com/story.aspx?6bdec278-6a71-4436-bc4d-29d1c54b0ad7

[votepaul12]

*** STOP THE WAR & END CORPORATE CORRUPTION ***

Who Is Paying For Your Vote To Keep Control Of You And To Keep This War Going? Remember The Bankers Hold The Stock In Companies That Are Getting Billions In War Contracts From Your Tax Dollars That Has Ruined This Country And Made The Dollar Drop 35% Over The Past 4 Years, We''ve Been Robbed!

Obama''s Contributers: Bankers / Special interest!
http://tinyurl.com/2nd4f8

Hillary Clinton''s Contributers Lawyers / RealEstate:
http://tinyurl.com/2ontpq

Rudy GIULIANI Contributors: Bankers / Hedge Funds!
http://tinyurl.com/2m2c4n

Ron Pauls Money Is From the People! We have someone who is NOT Paid Off By Special Interest or Bankers Money!!!
http://tinyurl.com/2q8vr3

If you ever want this War to End Vote Ron Paul 2008, No One Else Is Going To End It!
http://www.ronpaul2008.com/issues

Ron Paul Will:

** Stop Iraq War Immediately
** Eliminate IRS
** Eliminate Federal Reserve
** Eliminate Government Wasteful Spending
** Restore America''s Work Force & Values
** Restore America''s Freedom!

RON PAUL RAISES $5.1 MILLION 3RD Q!

It''s Not About Democrat Or Republican. It Is About
the People And Ron Paul Is America''s Last Hope!

********* VOTE RON PAUL 2008! *********

Join A ReVoLuTiOn Group In Your City:
http://ronpaul.meetup.com/cities/