Could A "Hidden" Youth Vote Propel Obama?

Presidential Hopeful Looks To Bring Young Voters To Polls In Iowa And Create Momentum

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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Last week, Michelle Obama, the wife of Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, told a group of Iowans that their state "will make the difference" in her husband's presidential bid. "If Barack doesn't win Iowa," she suggested, "it's just a dream."

Obama is in a dogfight in the Hawkeye state: Polls show him in a tight, three-way contest there with Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Sen. John Edwards among Democratic voters. His campaign manager, David Plouffe, has argued that the senator is in better shape than the polls suggest, however. That's thanks to a "hidden vote" from young voters, who the campaign argues are often missed in traditional surveys.

For 35 years, Iowa has been the first state to hold its presidential nominating contest. It is now, once again, ground zero in the race for the White House. After some early speculation that one or more of the Democratic frontrunners might skip the state's caucuses, all three have poured resources into in Iowa, raising the stakes -- and expectations.

The date for the upcoming caucuses is still not set, but they are expected to take place in the first days of January. There will then be a rapid series of primaries culminating in a showdown on Feb. 5, when many states hold their contests and a nominee is likely to emerge. A win or better-than-expected showing in Iowa can give a candidate serious momentum going forward. It can mean greater media attention, campaign cash, and support from the political establishment. A disappointing finish there, by contrast, could be disastrous.

Unlike primaries, in which voters have multiple opportunities to show up at their polling location and vote, caucuses are essentially neighborhood meetings. Voters come together at an appointed time to discuss their party platform and select their preferred candidate.

"It traditionally takes place on a Monday night in the winter," notes Drake University professor of politics Dennis J. Goldford. "You've got to hope that the babysitter shows up, got to hope there's no blizzard, and got to be prepared to stick around for a couple hours. It's a greater demand on your time and energy than a primary." According to Goldford, barely one in five potential voters usually shows up to their caucus.

The majority of those who do show are usually over the age of 55, according to veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer. And that doesn't work in Obama's favor, says Steve McMahon, media advisor for Howard Dean in 2004. Dean, like Obama, had an early following among young voters. He led in many polls going into the caucuses, only to finish a weak third.

"Iowa is not exactly designed for a guy like Barack Obama or Howard Dean," says McMahon. "The voters tend to be older, less well educated, and less affluent generally than primary voters in larger states."

Obama's message of change, Goldford says, "plays into the relatively cynical attitude of young voters." To reap the rewards of that appeal, he needs to convince those voters to register as Democrats and show up at the caucuses. Since the total number of voters is relatively small -- in 2004, about 100,000 Iowans participated in the Democratic caucuses -- it doesn't take a huge number of new supporters to swing the vote in a candidate's favor.

But that's easier said than done. The last time a "hidden vote" materialized in Iowa was in 1988, when Pat Robertson drew religious conservatives to the caucuses and finished a surprising second. Young voters are traditionally one of the most difficult voting blocks to harness. "In the Dean campaign we had a 'hidden vote,' too," says McMahon. "Unfortunately it stayed hidden right through the caucuses."

Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer, who has endorsed Obama, says it's a mistake to assume that Obama will suffer the same fate as Dean.

"I think Obama is the exception that proves the rule," he says. "In all my many years of political activity I have not seen a candidate with Obama's talent. I have not seen young people as excited about a candidate, including Dean. He's just on a different level. He's so energized young people, and it's not just young people -- there's minorities, independents, even some Republicans, people who don't normally caucus."

Fischer says it's also important to remember that the Obama campaign isn't focused solely on young people.

"The campaign has told me that they're looking at young people as the icing on the cake, but they're still baking the cake," he says. "They're working very, very hard with traditional caucus goers, whatever their age."

Obama spent much of September in Iowa, and he is again campaigning there this week. That's because Iowans tend to reward candidates who spend time in the state, shaking hands with locals and engaging in retail politics. They also reward a good statewide organization, and according to McMahon, Obama has one of the best. (Clinton, Edwards, Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Christopher Dodd, and Gov. Bill Richardson have all built up strong organizations in Iowa as well, according to Carrie Giddins, spokesperson for the Iowa Democratic Party.)

It is difficult to know exactly where Obama stands now. Polls in caucus states can be particularly unreliable, since it's difficult to predict which voters will actually show up to caucus. And a lot can happen between now and the caucus date. Obama should get a boost if young Iowans turn out, but he runs a risk in appealing to a voting block that has traditionally stayed home, despite campaigns' best efforts.

"Habitually, the younger people don't show," says Selzer. "But anything could happen."

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[tu10-2009]

It is ridiculous for many of you to dismiss the young vote. We are all listening to the politicians, watching the news and reading articles because of the mistakes our parents'' generations have done with the Bush Administration. The internet plays a big part in it as well. On Facebook, there are several politcial poll applications where there are over 500,000 participants. Of course young votes wont show if you dont appeal to them. Obama''s slogan for change is in sync with our ideaologies. You guys need to drop the "kids these days" grandparent ideas and realize there is a new group of diverse, energized and goal-oriented generation on your hands.

[realpatriot1]

Those who criticise Obama for being naive on foreign policy are the one who are naive.

There was a big dustup following his remarks about Al Quaeda in Pakastan. That was followed by much talk of Musharif stepping down and/or working out a deal with Bhutto for power sharing. With no pressure coming from the White House, those talks haven''t led anywhere.

There were reports just last week that a large contingent of Al Quaeda guarding either OBL or Al Zawari was spotted near Tora Bora on the Pakastan side
of the border. Supposedly we couldn''t react quickly enough to strike(when Clinton strikes too late he''s doing nothing. When Bush doesn''t even try he''s the great terror fighter).

This raises the question, what did Pakastan do to pick up the chase? The answer seems to be nothing because the pressure is now odd since everyone in America jumped on Obama for suggesting aggressive action.

OBL can sleep safe and continue holding Jihadist graduation ceremonies in open mountain valleys because
no one in this country seems to care about him any more and Pakastan pays no price for allowing him to take up residence in their territory..

[signof4]

''Could A "Hidden" Youth Vote Propel Obama?''

Can you change lead in to gold? Can a leopard change it''s spots? Is a lib capable of rational thought?

[sftodd]

the Bush White House *** ups are the reason we are all paying attention . . .
Posted by justjeffrey at 07:42 PM : Oct 04, 2007

Thanks for making my point, if your generation didn''t get a clue during the first four years, I''m banking money that come election day 2008, you will all be too baked to get your lazy a__es out of bed and vote. As for me, I''ll be supporting politicians who are happy to stick you lazy shiftless no good for nothing kids with the bill. You had your chance in 2004, now you can shut up and take what you have coming.

[condumism]

Barack Obama, the only candidate to declare that if elected, he will ban all corporate and foreign lobbyists (the root of all that ails the USA) from the Halls of Congress. I support Obama on this principle. However, I''m certain that if nominated, all of corporate media will smear him to no end.

[kansas1946]

You tell him, justjeffrey. I hope you are right and young people are paying attention. When I was young, we had to pay attention because we were right in the middle of Viet Nam and that was definately a wake up call. If you don''t mind, how old are you, do you attend college, and how do your friends feel about the political situation today. Who, of all of the candidates, do you, and your friends like?

[youngvoter]

It was never very clear to me why young people are held to a different standard. If candidates don%u2019t pay attention to a groups of voters, that group will not show up. That is politics 101. So campaigns that are holding out %u201Chope%u201D that the unicorns will show up for the caucuses or primary votes are simply holding on to a dream. The campaigns that target young people as voters may just surprise everyone and win the %u201Chidden%u201D youth vote.

[realpatriot1]

winnerindia,

The youngest Presidents in U.S. history were Teddy Roosevelt & JFK, 2 of the best. There goes your theory.

Sharncedar,

Get yourself some Prozac dude, you''re losing your grip!

Justjeffrey,

I''m 56 years old and I have a great deal of hope for and faith in your generation.

For starters, you aren''t still fighting out past battles like all the fools from my generation who vent on here everyday about Carter, Reagan, Clinton,
Bush and other has beens or soon to be has beens who will have no effect on the future.

Youth have always opened our eyes. I keep reading about how Reagan won the cold war and Carter helped to win the cold war. Do you know who else helped to win the cold war? A 12 year old girl from Maine named Samantha Smith wrote to Gorbachev asking him to eliminate nuclear arms and both he and Reagan responded. She''s been forgotten by history but she deserves credit too.

Old people like me need to move out of the way and realize that we''re too set in our ways to take a fresh look at anything.

[sharncedar]

The youth are stupid and owned by the corporate machine. They will vote for Kanye West, or for Nike. Or for Donald Trump. Has anyone in the MSM been paying attention, these are the Hitler youth, trained in the hate camps and business schools. They are not some kind of smart and far-seeing individuals. The MSM has a dumb fixation on youth, making them like some kind of idiot savants. They are just idiots.

[cyinzl8r]

Don''t worry. Hillary will be on the ballot, plus all you people who post here and whine about this country have convinced the youth that their vote will do no good due to the vast conspiracy that exists.

[justjeffrey-2009]

SFTodd = Idiot. Dumb dogs dont bark at parked cars. I think you are afraid of what my generation can do. So go ahead and turn your back on the next gen of kids - we are here and the Bush White House *** ups are the reason we are all paying attention. Your apathetic to think the nex gen of youths wont know where to look to vote. Maybe your kids are stupid but Im not.

All I can say is you better vote beacuse you have no idea whats going to happen to our voting block come Nov. ''08.

[winnerindia]

stonebog = tomflint69

Same illiterate troll. Either an uneducated moron or one of the Chinese Government minions who post salacious garbage to inflame and split Americans. Either way- IGNORE THE TROLL. It''''s not fooling anyone. ROFLMAO
Posted by UnderMyBoot at 07:27 PM : Oct 04, 2007

No, they are right. I tell you why. History tells us that whenever some young was elected as a President or as a Prime Minister, they had run their countries in chaos. We already know how much wisdom Mr. Obama has. It will be an absolute nightmare to give him ANY important post in U.S. In fact I would never like to make him head postmaster or a school headmaster!
Mr. Bush is in contrast with a wide view and very in depth insight into the foreign and political issues.
There should be a law in the U.S forcing people that they must be above 45 or 50 (mature and wise enough)in order to participate in elections because heading a country like U.S is not a joke.

_________________________

[undermyboot]

stonebog = tomflint69

Same illiterate troll. Either an uneducated moron or one of the Chinese Government minions who post salacious garbage to inflame and split Americans. Either way- IGNORE THE TROLL. It''s not fooling anyone. ROFLMAO

[tomflint69]

Obama will make sure to break U.S into fragments due to his poor policies which he will sure to make.
People will need to have passports for visiting countries which once used to be their homeland!

[kansas1946]

Well, I don''t know about the youngsters, I am pretty old, but I would vote for Obama. The Democrats just have to be smart enough to get him on the ballot. I am an independent, and Kansas doesn''t have a presidential primary, so I will have to wait until November 2008 to cast a vote.

[prinzowhales]

''Youth vote?'' Why would youth waste their vote on this weasel?...he''s already sworn his fealty to the Zionist entity...do youth really want to buy into the mainstream Demo-publican suicide pact for America? It will be their blood staining the ground in the Middle East in the Stupid People''s War. And, as they can readily see, they will be abused as servicemen and as veterans by the Regime...and, the call for a draft comes, helpfully, from John Conyers, the coy Democrat who calls for impeachment and then reneges and then says he hasn''t ruled it out...The one thing that Conyers and his ilk stand firm on is--THE DRAFT!

So, Youth!--vote for this mainstream poodle of the Oligarchy and don''t blame me when he whizzes on YOUR leg!

[sftodd]

Sure, that''s the ticket, let''s bank on the apathetic youth of this nation to help take back our government. They did so well in 2004! Gimme a break, they wouldn''t know where to vote, even if they were inclined to.

[jowand]

I would love for this man to win and maybe even Edwards. But I have no doubt in my mind unfortunately, that just like with Bobby Kennedy they would never allow anyone who was too concerned about ordinary Americans and all Americans regardless of class race or other minority status. With these people in power, why they might even kill him and blame it on alqaida.


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Posted by ttinsly at 04:59 PM : Oct 04, 2007

Don''t forget Bobby was trying like heck to have Castro killed!

[jack3213]

It''s just a dream anyway. Too bad, the facts are no woman or a black man, or a mormon will ever be president of this country. Period.