For GOP, Michigan Looms Large

Politico: Early Contest Shaping Up To Be Key To Nomination Fight

(The Politico) 
“He’s doing very well with independents and women,” said Rep. Candice S. Miller, a Macomb County Republican and former secretary of state who has endorsed Giuliani. “McCain did very well with that demographic, too.”

If Democrats continue to avoid campaigning in Michigan, many independents (and some Democrats) could choose to cast their ballot in the GOP contest. Any registered voter can participate, under Michigan’s rules.

Miller pointed to a new poll by the Marketing Research Group, a Lansing-based firm, showing Giuliani leading with 27 percent of the vote, compared with13 percent for Romney, 13 percent for Thompson and 6 percent for McCain.


“We do need to have some paid staff on the ground, and we’re putting that in place,” said Miller, noting that more operatives would be brought in very shortly.

Giuliani’s camp has high hopes for metropolitan Detroit -- home to about half of the state’s population -- and, in particular, Miller’s Macomb (original home of the ethnic, blue-collar “Reagan Democrats”) and some of the moderate suburbanites in Oakland County (home to Romney’s upscale former home of Bloomfield Hills).

Still, the Giuliani camp is lagging badly behind Romney in terms of grass roots. The former mayor’s campaign hasn’t focused much on Michigan, instead choosing to put its efforts toward the states holding their primaries Feb. 5.

Giuliani hoped Michigan would hold its primary the same day. But senior aides to Giuliani argue that Michigan Republican chairman Saul Anuzis gladly acceded to the Democrats’ effort to move the primary up in order to help Romney. It’s a charge Anuzis sharply denies.

“That’s just not true,” Anuzis says. The Giuliani, Romney and McCain campaigns all signed off on “going early.”

As for Giuliani in particular, Anuzis says, “They very much, more than anything, wanted to have a primary.”
“If I were doing this on behalf of Romney, I would’ve done a state convention. And, given the current makeup [of GOP activist leanings], Romney would’ve beaten McCain 60-40, and Rudy wouldn’t even be close.”

Indeed, Romney’s ground game is formidable. He has support from four of the state’s Republican congressman, 55 legislators in the state House and Senate, many top donors and county chairs in 82 out of 83 counties. What’s more, he has already begun organizing precincts and coalitions.

He has 130 “community captains” and more than 156 coalition chairs, according to his campaign.

Still, in a state with seven media markets over two time zones, grass roots only counts for so much.

“You’ve got to have a media plan,” Anuzis says.

Though Romney has yet to go up on television as he has in each of the other states holding January contests, he has something of a built-in advantage that he doesn’t have in other states: As the son of a popular two-term governor, he’s not the total unknown in Michigan that he is in South Carolina or Florida.

“Anybody who is 55 or older still remembers his father as governor,” Anuzis notes. “I’m 48, but even I can still remember meeting him at the state capitol as a Cub Scout.”

Supporters of other campaigns, however, note that Romney hasn’t lived in the state since he left for college. And, since his dad, George Romney, left Lansing in 1969, the family hasn’t fared so well in Michigan politics, they point out.

Since 1970, Romneys have lost four contests in the state (two Senate races, a Senate nomination and an attorney general nomination).

“It’s not really the best of all records,” Miller notes.

As for Thompson, he has former U.S. Sen. Spence Abraham (whose wife is co-chair of the state party) in his corner, but made his first trip to the state this weekend. Like Giuliani’s focus on Feb. 5, Thompson is pinning his nomination hopes on winning South Carolina and Florida.

In a brief interview, Abraham said polls show Thompson is "already competitive" here.

Abraham said that Thompson would fare well in the state for two reasons. "First, he was a senator of a state, Tennessee, that has domestic auto production, Saturn, and he understands those issues which are so central to Michigan's success and he can speak effectively to that.

"Second, demographically, he’s the guy in this race that comes from a small town, rural background of modest means and that seperates him from the other candidates, I think.

Meeting with reporters here Saturday afternoon, Thompson said the state would "be important in our primary" and pledged to vigorously compete here.

"Oh, absolutely, absolutely," Thompson quickly replied when asked if he would play hard in Michigan. "I notice where I’m doing pretty good and this is my first trip in," he said, alluding to recent polls showing him not far behind Giuliani and Romney in the state. "So hopefully, with more trips, I’ll do better."

Neither Thompson or any of the other top-tier candidates want to give Romney a free pass in a state as big as Michigan, especially given his strong numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire.

After all, they know what impact momentum from earlier wins can have in Michigan.

“As late as January 10th, McCain wasn’t supposed to have a snowball's chance in hell of winning Michigan,” Ballenger recalls of the 2000 primary. But, despite the efforts of former Gov. John Engler and most of the state party establishment, McCain walked away with a 51 to 43 victory (fueled by Democrats and independents), thanks to the surge he got from blowing out then-Gov. George W. Bush in the New Hampshire primary.

Said McCain this weekend: "Well, we won in 2000 without the money and finances to do so. We had kind of a grass-roots campaign here, so I’m confident that we can do well here."

[greco99-2009]

Some actual data to add to the opinion piece above.

Ron Paul comes in #3. Ahead of Guiliani...

Interesting...

Sen. John McCain came in second with 27%, followed by Rep. Ron Paul with 10.8%.

Frmr New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was close behind Paul, taking 10.62%. Frmr Sen. Fred Thompson took 7%. All five spoke before conference attendees this weekend, as did Rep. Duncan Hunter, who took 1% of the vote. Huckabee and Brownback were scheduled to appear, but cancelled on Friday.

Tancredo got 0 but is still considered a ''serious'' candidate..

[undermyboot]

Ron Paul is one of the few remaining true Republicans. The rest of the field are power-mad fascists in suits who left Conservative principles behind a LONG time ago.

These faux-conservatives have redefined "conservative" to fit their neocon definition: intrusion into people''s personal lives and privacy (i.e. spying, watch lists, etc), fiscal irresponsibility, an expansionist and unilateral foreign policy that entangles us in everyone else''s business, eroding the separation of church and state and allowing state funding of religion, eliminating any pretense that there is no Military-industrial complex that drives federal policy and money, power for powers sake, corruption and cronyism on an unprecedented scale, etc. These are all decidedly NOT CONSERVATIVE. This is a new brand of "conservatism" that leaves no place for Barry Goldwater, Ike, or even Ronald Reagan (whose memory is now used by the neocons as nothing more than an icon to rally the faithful, but who''s conservatism is no longer followed).

[undermyboot]

Here''s a great reason to vote for another Republican to succeed Mr. Bush:

Latest News: Congresswoman Harman (Chairwoman of House Terrorism subcommittee) revealed today that BUSH THREATENED CONGRESS with a bogus "terrorist threat" in order to scare Congress into voting for more dictatorial powers for Bush (It worked). On Aug. 2, just before Congress agreed to give Bush the power to spy on Americans without FISA warrants, Bush officials told Congress (in secret session) that CONGRESS was a target of an "IMMINENT ATTACK" and that the powers he wanted them to give him were needed to protect Congress from attack. Bush''s monkey in the Senate (Trent Lott) said, "Disaster could be at our doorstep". The intelligence agencies already knew that there was NO THREAT, but the truth only came out AFTER the vote. I guess Bush thought he could get away with this and no one would dare break silence (calling the lie a "state secret"). Too bad for him that at least one patriot told America what its petty dictator tried and lied about this time.

Can you smell a rat? A big, fascist, dictatorial, un-American, "Presidential" rat? This "King" is nothing more than a petty dictator-wannabe. He (and his cabal) should be tried and shot for crimes against our country, laws, and our Constitution. NOW! If Congress and the courts do not soon grow a pair our liberty and way of life are doomed. If you vote for these un-American fake Republicans you deserve the dictatorship it will bring.

[voteronpaul3]

**** TAKE AMERICA BACK ****
**** STOP THE WAR ****

Ron Paul has it all.

He has NEVER voted:
* to raise taxes
* for an unbalanced budget
* to raise congressional pay
* for a federal restriction on gun ownership
* to increase the power of the executive branch

He HAS voted:
* against the Iraq war
* against the inappropriately named USA PATRIOT act
* against regulating the internet
* against the Military Commissions Act

He will eliminate the IRS, Wasteful Government Spending & Stop The Iraq War Immediately!

Most importantly, he voted NO on anything in Congress that is not allowed by the Constitution.

He is the only candidate not a member of the CFR!

Shouldn''t ALL members of Congress uphold the Constitution? Aren''t they SWORN to uphold it? You can bet Paul won''t call the Constitution "just a G**D***ed piece of paper" like George Bush is reported to have.

If you want a candidate you can TRUST due to a proven track record, visit ronpaul2008.com and get busy spreading the word. The Mainstream Media is a lagging indicator!!

Ron Paul Revolution: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ron+paul

Get Active join a meetup.com group today!

Also checkout http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=federal reserve fraud

[voteronpaul3]

Ron Paul had a large support group there cheering more than any of the others and they cut him off after 15 minutes of speaking. Ron Paul is for the people unless you want your children to have human implant RFID chips, a National ID card and create a North American Union and see an economic collapse far worse than the great depression. Vote for Ron Paul he speaks the truth and the media and government is afraid of him go to youtune.com and search for Ron Paul and you will see his large base. Get motivated America, don''t believe the lies of the media he has also won 6 Straw Polls already as well! Go Ron Paul! Value Freedom instead of corporate lies and corruption.

[ianlou]

What this article fails to mention is that Michigan is number one in the nation for unemployment, home foreclosure, and dangerous cities. Some blame our Democrat Governor, others - our auto union mentality, more blame Bush''s support of NAFTA and free trade that is killing American manufacturing. The Republicans offer of "steady as we go - the American economy is thriving" won''t cut it in Michigan. And as for Rudy applying his wisdom as a former mayor of NY to the cities of Michigan, he will run into a very large obstacle he has no experience with; Some of the biggest cities (Detroit, Flint, Pontiac and Saginaw) are about Broke.

[thirdrailrad]

Check out the new hit piece on Fred Thompson, including a few things the media never talks about. To read it go to thirdrailradio.blogspot.com