June 26, 2009 5:16 PM
- Text
For GOP, Michigan Looms Large
(The Politico)
By The Politico's Jonathan Martin
It was Michigan Democrats who sought to end the stranglehold Iowa and New Hampshire have had on the presidential nominating process by angling for years to move up their primary.
Yet despite the best efforts of Sen. Carl Levin and company, it's the Republican contest here that may have been given added relevance with the new Jan. 15 date.
The fact that Michigan could be the largest GOP domino to fall in rapid succession no matter how the early state calendar ends up being constructed - there are 61 delegates to be had here and over a million people could take part in the GOP primary, compared with the roughly 100,000 Iowans expected to caucus there - doesn't seem to have penetrated the political consciousness.
Until this weekend, at least.
Each of the top GOP presidential candidates trekked to the upper reaches of Michigan to address Republican activists here at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. It's a biennial affair on the resort island, and one that has drawn its share of big-name political talent over the years.
But never has there been a get-together like this, where all of the party's contenders make their case before about 1,000 Republicans who will be the foot soldiers in what could be a decisive primary in less than four months.
Unlike in Florida, where Democratic presidential hopefuls have pledged to not campaign out of deference to the DNC and the traditional early states, Michigan is expected to see GOP contenders early and often. Right now, the race here mirrors the contours of the broader GOP primary:
Mitt Romney has the best organization, Rudy Giuliani is late putting his team together but appears strong in the polls, Fred Thompson is as much x-factor as he is a threat and John McCain is in a precarious position.
Although other recent polls show Romney enjoying a lead, Giuliani appears strong despite having little organization in the state.
Aside from picking up the early backing of Miller, Giuliani has done little in Michigan. On Friday, he announced his first hire here.
It's McCain who dominated the conversation at Mackinac's famed Grand Hotel this weekend.
"McCain doesn't have the kind of support from the party's grass-roots leaders that he thought he would," observes Bill Ballenger, a veteran Michigan political observer and editor of Inside Michigan Politics.
McCain, who ran away with the Michigan primary in 2000, was expected to go toe-to-toe with Romney - whose dad was Michigan's governor in the '60s - this time around.
But his dire financial situation forced him to thin out his staff in the state this summer and focus his resources on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Still, he was left with key players such as Attorney General Mike Cox chairing his campaign and veteran operative John Yob running the day-to-day side.
But, unhappy with the new staff directing McCain's campaign, Cox resigned his post this week and is no longer backing the Arizonan. And, sources tell Politico, Yob has been moved from Michigan to McCain's national headquarters outside Washington, D.C., to take over as deputy political director.
Asked about the changes, McCain spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan would only say, "This campaign is all about looking forward."
But many Michiganders think McCain's hopes are dim. "Right now, there are a lot of [Republicans] that are hoping he does the right thing so they can move on without it being said they deserted him," said one longtime Michigan politico who is backing Giuliani. McCain's backers are "ripe ground for the other candidates," he said.
Of course, it's only natural that Giuliani backers would suggest that McCain is finished - they are hoping to win with many of the same voters that fueled his 2000 win.
It was Michigan Democrats who sought to end the stranglehold Iowa and New Hampshire have had on the presidential nominating process by angling for years to move up their primary.
Yet despite the best efforts of Sen. Carl Levin and company, it's the Republican contest here that may have been given added relevance with the new Jan. 15 date.
The fact that Michigan could be the largest GOP domino to fall in rapid succession no matter how the early state calendar ends up being constructed - there are 61 delegates to be had here and over a million people could take part in the GOP primary, compared with the roughly 100,000 Iowans expected to caucus there - doesn't seem to have penetrated the political consciousness.
Until this weekend, at least.
Each of the top GOP presidential candidates trekked to the upper reaches of Michigan to address Republican activists here at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference. It's a biennial affair on the resort island, and one that has drawn its share of big-name political talent over the years.
But never has there been a get-together like this, where all of the party's contenders make their case before about 1,000 Republicans who will be the foot soldiers in what could be a decisive primary in less than four months.
Unlike in Florida, where Democratic presidential hopefuls have pledged to not campaign out of deference to the DNC and the traditional early states, Michigan is expected to see GOP contenders early and often. Right now, the race here mirrors the contours of the broader GOP primary:
Mitt Romney has the best organization, Rudy Giuliani is late putting his team together but appears strong in the polls, Fred Thompson is as much x-factor as he is a threat and John McCain is in a precarious position.
Although other recent polls show Romney enjoying a lead, Giuliani appears strong despite having little organization in the state.
Aside from picking up the early backing of Miller, Giuliani has done little in Michigan. On Friday, he announced his first hire here.
It's McCain who dominated the conversation at Mackinac's famed Grand Hotel this weekend.
"McCain doesn't have the kind of support from the party's grass-roots leaders that he thought he would," observes Bill Ballenger, a veteran Michigan political observer and editor of Inside Michigan Politics.
McCain, who ran away with the Michigan primary in 2000, was expected to go toe-to-toe with Romney - whose dad was Michigan's governor in the '60s - this time around.
But his dire financial situation forced him to thin out his staff in the state this summer and focus his resources on Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Still, he was left with key players such as Attorney General Mike Cox chairing his campaign and veteran operative John Yob running the day-to-day side.
But, unhappy with the new staff directing McCain's campaign, Cox resigned his post this week and is no longer backing the Arizonan. And, sources tell Politico, Yob has been moved from Michigan to McCain's national headquarters outside Washington, D.C., to take over as deputy political director.
Asked about the changes, McCain spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan would only say, "This campaign is all about looking forward."
But many Michiganders think McCain's hopes are dim. "Right now, there are a lot of [Republicans] that are hoping he does the right thing so they can move on without it being said they deserted him," said one longtime Michigan politico who is backing Giuliani. McCain's backers are "ripe ground for the other candidates," he said.
Of course, it's only natural that Giuliani backers would suggest that McCain is finished - they are hoping to win with many of the same voters that fueled his 2000 win.
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Kevin Hechtkopf Kevin Hechtkopf is CBSNews.com's politics editor.
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