Bad News For GOP: Independents Lean Dem

Opposition To War, Anger At Bush Leading Unaffiliated Voters Away From Republican Party

(AP)  Michael Brooks is exactly the kind of voter the Republican Party can ill afford to lose. But in a foreboding omen for 2008, it may have already done just that.

The auto parts store worker from St. Charles, Mo., says he used to be a Republican but felt abandoned and is now an independent.

"For some reason or other, they didn't seem to be for the masses anymore," said Brooks, 59, citing a lack of help for middle-income earners. He said he voted for George W. Bush in 2000, thinking the Republican was "more middle of the road, for the people. Obviously I was incorrect."

Brooks is not alone. From coast to coast, independent voters tilt tellingly toward Democrats in their opposition to the Iraq war, their displeasure with Bush and their feeling that the country is moving in the wrong direction, according to data from recent Associated Press-Ipsos polls.

That could be decisive in next year's contests for the White House and Congress, starting with the crucial early presidential primaries in New Hampshire.

The portion of that state's registered voters not enrolled in a political party has grown to 44 percent. While people can vote in either major party's primary, more are expected to choose the Democratic contest. That potentially would boost antiestablishment candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., while leaving the GOP race more in the hands of the party's traditional conservative voters.

National exit polls show that after leaning toward Republicans by 48 percent to 45 percent as recently as the 2002 elections, independents began shifting toward Democrats.

The trickle became a wave by the 2006 congressional elections. Dissatisfaction with President Bush and the Iraq war ran high, and independents favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by 57 percent to 39 percent. That was instrumental in the Democrats' capture of congressional control after a dozen years of GOP dominance - and a possible preview of what might emerge next year.

"This is a serious problem" for Republicans, says GOP pollster Neil Newhouse. "We didn't get where we are among independents overnight. The data does suggest that it's going to take us some time to earn those votes back. There is no quick fix."

Independents are hardly a monolithic bloc. Some do not follow politics at all; others watch closely and conclude that neither party is good at running the government. They also are less likely to vote than those registered with a party, yet they are substantial in number.

In AP-Ipsos polling this summer, 44 percent of those surveyed said initially they had no major party affiliation. When pressed, most said they generally back one particular party, usually Democrats. That left 17 percent as true independents, more than enough to tilt the balance in the presidential and many congressional races.

Among these independents, only about three in 10 approved of the job President Bush is doing overall and on many domestic issues. About one-quarter backed his Iraq policy and said the country is heading in the right direction. That is closer to the meager support Bush gets from Democrats than to the solid majority backing Republicans usually give him.

"I just don't like the way Republicans are going," said Jim Hacker, 54, a train engineer from Boone, Iowa, who calls himself an independent and leans toward Democrats. "We can start with the Iraq war. I'm all against terrorists, but the terrorists didn't come from Iraq."

Independents are not a lock for Democrats. The two major parties are each viewed favorably by only about one-fifth of independents, according to a recent NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll. The survey also found that 42 percent of them have an unfavorable view of the leading Democratic presidential contender, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y. - the highest among each parties' major hopefuls.

"I don't trust either political party," said Natalie Frank, 64, an independent and homemaker from Crystal, Minn. "They're more for the big dollar than the individual person."

Even so, analysts from both parties say independents often vote against a candidate or for one they consider the lesser of two evils. As long as the war continues without major troop reductions, Democrats say they are bullish, for now, about their 2008 prospects.

"Independents are kind of like a weather vane, and the wind is the political environment," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone. "That wind has been going our way for 18 months or two years now, but you just never know when the front will change that."

Republicans say their eventual nominee could change the dynamic by focusing the campaign on the future, not the Bush administration's performance.

"Independents are a lot more fluid and volatile than people think," said John McLaughlin, pollster for GOP presidential candidate Fred Thompson.

The data is from three AP-Ipsos polls conducted in July, August and September. Those surveys involved telephone interviews with 3,007 adults and have a combined margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Included were interviews with 499 true independents, for whom the margin of sampling error was plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

By Associated Press Writer Alan Fram. AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

[cdlopez1]

Gee only 3 out of 10 think Bush is doing a good Job.
Independents vote with their Brain.
I do not believe that 3 out of 10. The only way that is true the survey was held at a Union Oil Plant.

In the long run every Democrat should send a thank you note to George Bush.

The Bush Administration is going to be the Down Fall of the GOP. The Independent Party is going to put the pressure on them. Now is the time,it is easy for everyone to see what the GOP is all about, $$$$, OIl, Haliburton, CEO, all at the expense of the people,troops,rights,constitution.
There is no argument about this mess just look at who is at the top and who is on the bottom.
They are not bashful look at the last thing that the republicans tried to pass they wanted to keep the troops in Iraq for longer periods of time.
That should show the people how they feel about the Troops.
The leadership of this country is making Blood Money!

[undermyboot]

Latest News: Congresswoman Harman (Chairwoman of House Terrorism subcommittee) revealed today that BUSH THREATENED CONGRESS with a bogus "terrorist threat" in order to scare Congress into voting for more dictatorial powers for Bush (It worked). On Aug. 2, just before Congress agreed to give Bush the power to spy on Americans without FISA warrants, Bush officials told Congress (in secret session) that CONGRESS was a target of an "IMMINENT ATTACK" and that the powers he wanted them to give him were needed to protect Congress from attack. Bush''s monkey in the Senate (Trent Lott) said, "Disaster could be at our doorstep". The intelligence agencies already knew that there was NO THREAT, but the truth only came out AFTER the vote. I guess Bush thought he could get away with this and no one would dare break silence (calling the lie a "state secret"). Too bad for him that at least one patriot told America what its petty dictator tried and lied about this time.

Can you smell a rat? A big, fascist, dictatorial, un-American, "Presidential" rat? This "King" is nothing more than a petty dictator-wannabe. He (and his cabal) should be tried and shot for crimes against our country, laws, and our Constitution. NOW! If Congress and the courts do not soon grow a pair our liberty and way of life are doomed. If you vote for these un-American fake Republicans you deserve the dictatorship it will bring.

[mudrose-2009]

If the Democrats embrace the Fundamental Christian Right End-of-Time proponents as reported, this will only hurt their cause. It is their agenda and support by the Bush Administration and his "God has given me a holy mission" that has driven us into the mess we have in Iraq.
Posted by Rick_VT

Get real. The Religious Right will never endorse a Dimnowit first and foremost. The independents - that group of voters who are swinging in the wind, might just surprise us all. And the mission in Iraq is not a holy mission - maybe to Al-Qaeda, certainly not to us. But you just keep thinking that if it makes you feel superior.

[rick_vt]

If the Democrats embrace the Fundamental Christian Right End-of-Time proponents as reported, this will only hurt their cause. It is their agenda and support by the Bush Administration and his "God has given me a holy mission" that has driven us into the mess we have in Iraq.

[voteronpaul3]

Ron Paul has it all.

He has never voted:
* to raise taxes
* for an unbalanced budget
* to raise congressional pay
* for a federal restriction on gun ownership
* to increase the power of the executive branch

He HAS voted:
* against the Iraq war
* against the inappropriately named USA PATRIOT act
* against regulating the internet
* against the Military Commissions Act

He will eliminate the IRS, Wasteful Government Spending & Stop The Iraq War Immediately!

Most importantly, he vote NO on anything in Congress that is not allowed by the Constitution.

Shouldn''t ALL members of Congress uphold the Constitution? Aren''t they SWORN to uphold it? You can bet Paul won''t call the Constitution "just a G**D***ed piece of paper" like George Bush is reported to have.

If you want a candidate you can TRUST due to a proven track record, visit ronpaul2008.com and get busy spreading the word. The Mainstream Media is a lagging indicator!!

Ron Paul Revolution: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ron+paul

Get Active join a meetup.com group today!

[mudrose-2009]

The word "Demos" is used as a slur by the ignorant right wing.

"Demos" means "the People" in Greek. "Demos Kratia" (literally "People Power") is the original form the the word "Democracy."

Posted by Iceman_1960

That''s why I use Dimnowits. What''s that in Greek? The question is rhetorical - it means the same thing.

[antoniof123]

The GOP tasted power again and like in the 1950''s was hard to let go because it felt good to rule over those that were weaker. Now they will do like then fight and use every dirty trick to hold it off but in the end the out come will be the same. Some people never learn from there mistakes. We asked for middle of the road and got fascism. I hope the Democrats listen this time or they will be out in 12 years too. Right now though congress has a low approval rating because the GOP is fighting everything they do of course the GOP think we are too stupid to see it. Don''t anger the swing voter the cost is way too high and we don''t forget.

[briannorwood]

No wonder the independents are leaning Democrat. After 6 years of abject incompetence by Bush and the GOP, along with maniacal morality stumping (remember Terry Schiavo), most common sense people have had enough.

The GOP wanted to divide the country on wedge issues. Trouble is, they got left with the small piece of the pie!

[actornaught]

If you think Hillary can''t win, you''ve been misinformed. This is just something that hate radio and fox has parroted, hoping that if they say it enough times (clicking their heels), it will become true.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

She''s leading in all the recent polls, even fox. As time goes by, she''s becoming MORE electable. And the leading ''pub, Rudy, is being exposed more and more as a no-talent empty suit.

[kenroid]

RON PAUL is the only answer.Hillary?I dont think she ca win.Check out RON PAUL before you have an anurism.Right on sgtRDS

[kenroid]

RON PAUL is the only answer.Hillary?I dont think she ca win.Check out RON PAUL before you have an anurism

[kenroid]

RON PAUL is the only answer

[iceman_1960]

The word "Demos" is used as a slur by the ignorant right wing.

"Demos" means "the People" in Greek. "Demos Kratia" (literally "People Power") is the original form the the word "Democracy."

[iceman_1960]

Good News for America: Independents Lean Democratic

[tbweb]

The Republicans are not even happy with themselves so how can they expect anyone else to be? The ultimate irony! I guess Republicans have to go through the motions, like they say, one is born every minute!

[Netterz]

It is WAY to early for me to even think who I will vote for, since its well over a year away, and alot of changes can and will be made during that time. I personally depise the entire party way of thought, and never will base my vote on just the party. I think the lines that were drawn long ago are gone. The purpose means nothing, because even within a party, the ideals are far and vast. At one time, am sure they served a purpose. The complications, as well as implications, were designed in a long lost time, when people had simular beliefs. The way things are today, are much more complicated and harder. I base my vote on the individual person and what they stand for. I was not born an R or a D, and the ones who go in and hit the X for everyone in a certain party, scare me. They started far too early fr this election. By the time it gets here, everyone will be so sick of hearing all the lies so much, an a waste of $ that could have been put to something worthwhile.

[sgtrds]

Posted by sparks224 at 12:17 AM : Sep 24, 2007

Well the key to the dilemma is that neoconservative republicans are not Americans, they''re internationalists. People like Bush and Cheney and families of their ilk may have been born in America, but they don''t give even a tiny dam*n about America or what happens to it or it''s people. They follow the religion of international power and money and would gladly see America destroyed if they could make a profit off from it''s death. They are elitist pigs, from families of elitist pigs and they don''t give a sh*it who lives and dies in America or in one of the many wars they have started, as long as they make money. Bush and Cheney are NOT Americans. They are not patriots and they do not care about this nation or it''s people. They are traitors. Treasonists whose only interest is to suck money out of all of us before they slip off into exile to live their life dreams on the blood money of our troops. Sort of like Marcos of the Philippines or Ida Amin of Uganda, except with much more power and much more money and many more dying for them. they are no better then any thieves that have ever lived, except they are in the middle of the greatest and most tragic grand larceny ever. They are crooks, robber barons and traitors to this country. They deserve to be arrested, tried in an international court and then executed. Just like any other war criminals including the likes of Mussolini and Hitler. They are scum. They are maggot puke.

[jn122736]

People who voted for Nader in 2000 in effect voted for Bush and are a major reason for the policies of this administration.

Those who CHOOSE not to vote at all are not worthy of the freedoms they have.

[neobrian-2009]

Sparks is right on,..How Could ANYBODY in their right mind vote for a republican ? There`s not enough space to write about the corruption and theft of America. Corporate greed is their platform,,..Environmental issues ? Human rights ?The desecration of our constitutional rights,..election fraud,..etc etc,..

[sparks224]

Neo-cons don''t believe in democracy, so they cheat in elections.
They don''t believe in the Constitution, so they use it for toilet paper.

How anyone could call themselves an American and vote for a Republican is beyond me.