Poll: Giuliani Tumbles, GOP Race Tightens
CBS News Poll: Thompson's Entry Vaults Him To A Close Second Place In Republican Contest
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America knows Giuliani from his command performance on Sept. 11. But New Yorkers remember a different mayor from Sept. 10. Jeff Greenfield reports.
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The former New York City police commissioner praises his former boss and business partner. Byron Pitts reports.
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The Resume Republican
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Republican presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani speaks on his plans to change immigration policy at a town hall meeting in Columbia, S.C., Tuesday, Aug. 14, 2007. A new poll finds his lead over the rest of the GOP field shrinking. (AP Photo/Brett Flashnick)
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CBS News Polls
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The poll contains other foreboding signs for the former New York City mayor as well, including indications that Republican primary voters may not buy his argument that running America’s biggest city makes Giuliani fit to occupy the White House.
After seeing his support among Republican primary voters rise to 38 percent in August, Giuliani was backed by only 27 percent of respondents in the most recent survey, narrowing his lead over Thompson to 5 percentage points after holding a 20-point edge last month.
While Thompson, at 22 percent support, is now a close second to Giuliani, he was not the only Republican to seemingly benefit from Giuliani’s fading numbers. Arizona Sen. John McCain, who was written off by some after months of staff upheaval and disappointing fundraising, saw his support increase 6 points since the last survey to 18 percent. On the other hand, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who won August’s straw poll in Ames, Iowa, saw little benefit nationwide, scoring 14 percent support - largely unchanged since last month.
Shallow Support?
Giuliani has based much of his presidential campaign around his actions as New York mayor during and immediately after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Strategically, this makes sense: 25 percent of GOP primary voters cite 9/11 as the reason they back Giuliani, and 82 percent of them believe Giuliani is a strong leader.
But beyond his record on 9/11 and his leadership abilities, Giuliani may face several problems. In recent Republican presidential debates, Giuliani has made the point that none of the top Democrats in the race - Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama or John Edwards - has run a state, city or business. Yet only 48 percent of registered voters believe that being a big-city mayor qualifies one to be president, a sentiment shared equally by Democrats and Republicans.
On the other hand, registered voters overwhelmingly believe that being a senator or governor provides the experience necessary to be president. Romney has been a governor, while all the other top candidates in the race are serving or have served in the Senate.
Also troubling for Giuliani may be how knowledgeable his own supporters are of his tenure as mayor, aside from 9/11. A majority of Giuliani supporters were unable to say whether crime went up or down during his administration, despite his frequent mentions of making New York safer. And more than 70 percent of Giuliani supporters didn’t know whether race relations got better or worse under Giuliani - several well-publicized incidents involving New York police are credited with exacerbating racial tensions in the city while Giuliani was mayor.
There even appears to be some ignorance among Giuliani’s supporters on the issue that most separates him from the rest of the GOP field: his support for abortion rights. While 41 percent say Giuliani favors legal abortions, 31 percent believe, incorrectly, that he opposes them.
However, even if more Republicans become aware of his position on abortion, Giuliani may still win the nomination. By a 2-to-1 margin, Republican primary voters said they could vote for a less conservative candidate if they believed that candidate would win in a general election, where Giuliani’s moderate views on social issues could allow him to win support from independent voters.
Giuliani may also see his lead stabilize or even grow if Thompson stumbles out of the gate. More than two-thirds of Republican primary voters have yet to decide if they view the “Law & Order” star favorably or unfavorably, while 40 percent view Giuliani favorably - the highest percentage among the top Republican candidates.
The Democrats
While the Republican race has been tumultuous, the Democratic contest has been relatively static for the past month. Clinton remains firmly in the lead among Democratic primary voters, with 44 percent support, trailed by Obama at 26 percent and Edwards at 17 percent - all largely unchanged since August.
Clinton also meets expectations by leading Obama by more than two to one among women. But they are nearly even among male Democratic voters.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1263 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone September 4-9, 2007. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. An oversample of those with family members who are now serving in the U.S. armed forces or the U.S. reserves was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 349 interviews among this group. The results were then weighted in proportion to the composition of the adult population in the U.S. Census. The margin of error for military families is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
© MMVII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 90 CommentsWill Monsignor Alan Placa be Giuliani''s next character reference?
Last week - According to CBS Hiliary & Rendell received a total of $60,000 from Hush. Rendell admitting to receiving $40,000 & Hilliary $20,000 which was going to be returned to their favorite Charities.
Fox reports - that this is just the tip of the iceberg. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton to Return $850,000 in Donations Raised By Norman Hsu.
Maybe we''ll find the rest in Clinton''s Socks or Jefferson freezer?
9/11 Mysteries:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6708190071483512003&q=911+mysteries&hl=en
The really hillarious thing is that Fred is way too old to be president!!!
Apparently religious right haven''t been looking for a daddy figure but for a gradpa figure!!!
Posted by nyckate at 08:47 PM : Sep 10, 2007
I''m still trying to figure out if Jeri Thompson was looking for a daddy or a grandpa figure!
Re: "Rudy Giuliani, after holding the front-runner spot in the race for the Republican presidential nomination for months"
So that''s what that is. I thought that he was "holding" a small bag of cocaine.
Reagan
Swartzeneggar
Bono
Grandy
etc.
They say they hate hollywood types and then vote for hollywood types that act like one of them. Let''s see: Thompson is a washington lobbyist/actor that lives just outside of DC. He divorced his first wife and has a trophy wife. He lobbied for abortion in the 80s and he wears Guccis when walking around in Iowa. Don''t believe the facts that show he''s one of "those folks in Washington", believe the hype. The GOP is counting on it.
Apparently religious right haven''''t been looking for a daddy figure but for a gradpa figure!!!
Posted by nyckate at 08:47 PM : Sep 10, 2007
***? How can you be too old to be President unless you are so old that you are suffering from Alzheimers? Reagan was old (the oldest ever), yet he was turned out to be one of the greatest leaders that this nation has ever seen.
With age comes wisdom... most of the time.
Reagan
Swartzeneggar
Bono
Gra
ndy
etc.
Posted by Smirk5 at 09:13 PM : Sep 10, 2007
You idiot. The GOP doesn''t like Bono. Bono is a socialist. Of course morons like you have to make up stuff just to support your opinion.
Posted by mumsyof6 at 07:38 PM : Sep 10, 2007
********************************
mumsy, you may be exactly right about this, but since "facts" are not applicable in politics, so what. I didn''t see the Swift Boat scum worrying about facts when they went after John Kerry, I didn''t see the Bush SC campaign commitee scum worrying about facts when they went after John McCain.
I think we are way beyond "facts" in political rhetoric. You can''t get an big ugly cat back into a small pretty bag, so "facts" are out.
Was it great when Reagan traded arms to Iran to get hostages released in Lebanon?
How about the fact that the deficit exploded on his watch?
He went to a graveyard in Germany and memorialized SS men.
The Iran/Contra Scandal
Yeah, he sure was great. Myth before fact.
You skipped the parts about Thompson being a DC lobbyist/actor who wear Guccis when hanging out in Iowa and who lobbied on behalf of abortion in the 80s. These are all solid facts.
Bono wasn''t a Republican?
I think we are way beyond "facts" in political rhetoric. You can''''t get an big ugly cat back into a small pretty bag, so "facts" are out.
Posted by kansas1946 at 09:18 PM : Sep 10, 2007
Kansas1946 this was about the best I''ve read thanks for this post.
How about the fact that the deficit exploded on his watch?
He went to a graveyard in Germany and memorialized SS men.
The Iran/Contra Scandal
Yeah, he sure was great. Myth before fact.
Posted by Smirk5 at 09:19 PM : Sep 10, 2007
It wasn''t so great when he fired all those traffic controllers and broke that union I know they were all so happy when they named the Wash.D.C. airport after him.
SHAMEFUL!
How about all those Dems, including Queen Hillary, who accepted donations $$$ from the criminal Hsu? Let''s hear a little about that CBS! Your bias is so obvious! AND YOU HYPOCRITES WANT TO SILENCE FOX? HA, HA, HA.
Posted by starleo146 at 09:23 PM : Sep 10, 2007
*****************
Thanks, starleo.
I am just sorry that it is true. :o(
Number of YouTube Videos:
Ron Paul - 22,700
Rudy Giuliani - 2,010
Fred Thompson - 1,010
Where''s Giuliani & Thompson''s support? Seems to me more people are putting forth real effort to support Ron Paul.
How about all those Dems, including Queen Hillary, who accepted donations $$$ from the criminal Hsu? Let''''s hear a little about that CBS! Your bias is so obvious! AND YOU HYPOCRITES WANT TO SILENCE FOX? HA, HA, HA.
Posted by Luigi999 at 09:50 PM : Sep 10, 2007
misinformation? where? what? or do you yourself not know what giuliani really believes in? and is actually putting some meat on those thin bones too much of an effort for you?
as for the rest of your nonsense, you obviously missed this headline piece:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/09/10/politics/main3249034.shtml
on the basis of what little evidence you''ve provided, your post was vacuous. save me from ignorant conservative posters trying to be big shots on line.
'' ... it''s tiring just watching all the trillion dollar men with their hands tied by the two idiots raping all the girls in their trillion dollar dare and shock and awe wars ... ''
Where was God on Sept 11th? He was glued to the TV set to the horror that was unfolding. His heart was breaking to the scenes that where taking place. He was unable to force what man should do in his decisions. He is open to the hearts that respond to the truth that they are loved. He is opened to the people wanting His will. There are some who want there own will and you see where that gets us a 911!
Where was God on Sept 11th? He was glued to the TV set to the horror that was unfolding. His heart was breaking to the scenes that where taking place. He was unable to force what man should do in his decisions. He is open to the hearts that respond to the truth that they are loved. He is opened to the people wanting His will. There are some who want there own will and you see where that gets us a 911!
How convenient that when america notices what a sorry lot the GOP candidates are some other fake actor ronald reagan wanna be comes in with so much media favor to take the reins as the official banana republicon candidate for empire and national decline...
If it is she could be on the hook for at least 5 years.
The tale of shady Chinese Clinton donors avoiding U.S. justice is a familiar one that dates back to the 1996 Clinton-Gore fundraising scandal known as Chinagate. The Clintons took millions in laundered foreign campaign donations from Chinese Communists in exchange for liberalizing trade policy with China, dropping pending indictments against influential Chinese figures, spots on a U.S. trade mission and overnight stays at the White House.
Many of the Chinagate donors were successfully prosecuted even though Clinton Attorney General Janet Reno blocked investigators%u2019 efforts at the Justice Department. More than 100 people connected to the fundraising scandal fled the country, however. Norman Hsu seems to be following their lead.
http://www.corruptionchronicles.com/2007/09/hillary_donor_flees_like_china.html
and you thought gonzales was bad...
HSU A NO HSU AT HEARING%u2026 LOL
Democratic Donor a No Show at Hearing
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070906/D8RFKG500.html
Dems Dirty Donor Norman Hsu Fails to Show for Bail Reduction Hearing Leading to Speculation He''s On the Run
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,295828,00.html
china buys usa elections???
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=chinese+campaign contributions democrat
Big Source of Clinton''s Cash Is an Unlikely Address
Family''s Donations Closely Track Those Of Top Fund-Raiser
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118826947048110677.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Report: Hillary Clinton Big Money Donor Wanted for Grand Theft
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Hillary Clinton Big Money Donor Wanted for Grand Theft&btnG=Search
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,295031,00.html
Leading Clinton Donor Stays Below the Radar
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB118835199704811801.html?mod=blog
''DIRTY CASH'' MAN FLEES
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03042007/news/nationalnews/pro_clinton_dirty_cash_man_flees_nationalnews_christine_field.htm
"Since 1998, 43 percent of the 198 members of Congress who left government to join private life have registered to lobby."
"74% of Americans are "dissatisfied" with the way things are going in this country."
"82% of Americans agree that "America has become so polarized between Democrats and Republicans that Washington can''''t seem to make progress solving the nation''''s problems."
http://www.unity08.com/
Or do you want more poodles in your wallet?
The tale of shady Chinese Clinton donors avoiding U.S. justice is a familiar one that dates back to the 1996 Clinton-Gore fundraising scandal known as Chinagate. The Clintons took millions in laundered foreign campaign donations from Chinese Communists in exchange for liberalizing trade policy with China, dropping pending indictments against influential Chinese figures, spots on a U.S. trade mission and overnight stays at the White House.
Many of the Chinagate donors were successfully prosecuted even though Clinton Attorney General Janet Reno blocked investigators%u2019 efforts at the Justice Department. More than 100 people connected to the fundraising scandal fled the country, however. Norman Hsu seems to be following their lead.
http://www.corruptionchronicles.com/2007/09/hillary_donor_flees_like_china.html
and you thought gonzales was bad...
No we didn''t elect Clinton for superficial reasons. The knock on Clinton back in 1992 was that he was a "policy wonk". No one will ever say that about Fred.
If you choose your leader based upon superficial reasons that''s your idiocy.
You voted for Bush twice, didn''t you?
No sense in appealing to a sense of patriotism from Lars. As brianwb has already discovered, he ain''t American, he''s Belgian.
He would make a typical republican with the blame democrats first and last and accept no responsibility outlook.
Thou shalt speak no ill of a republican is their motto. Speaking ill of America when democrats are in charge is what patriotism means to them.
1263 Adults? Where?
An oversample of those with family members who are now serving in the U.S. armed forces or the U.S. reserves was also conducted for this poll, for a total of 349 interviews among this group.
With 130,000 in Iraq, that is not a fair poll.
It will come down to Guiliani and Thompson.
For the Democrats, options are irrelevant.
Reagan
Swartzeneggar
Bono
Gra
ndy
etc.
Posted by Smirk5 at 09:13 PM : Sep 10, 2007
You idiot. The GOP doesn''''t like Bono. Bono is a socialist. Of course morons like you have to make up stuff just to support your opinion.
Posted by indivthinker at 09:17 PM : Sep 10, 2007
indivthinker--ironic name since you didn''t think before calling someone an idiot. Sonny Bono was a Republican. I doubt if he was talking about the singer Bono from U2. LOL
for superficial reasons, didn''t we?"
Posted by mike71067 at 09:12 AM : Sep 11, 2007
I hope Fred gets the Republican nomination. He has a lot of baggage that will help the Democrats win the White House.
___________
What''s this? Disowning your masters? At least you recognize that Neo-Conservatism is nothing more than a particular virulent form of the Neo-Liberalism. Now, why do you support the Neo-Conservative''s Stupid Peoples'' War for Oil, Israel and Opium?-- Woodrow Wilson Gone Wild...
Its no accident that FOX owner Rupert Murdoch is behind Zio-Nazi Hillary, just as he was behind the Chimp. Hillary just appeals to a different segment of America''s largest constituency-- the Fool Vote.
RonPaul2008.com
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