September 22, 2009 11:11 AM
- Text
Petraeus Facing A Tough Crowd
(National Review Online)
This column was written by the editors of National Review Online.
Sen. Dick Durbin accuses Gen. David Petraeus of "carefully manipulating the statistics" to convince people "that violence in Iraq is decreasing and thus the surge is working." Majority Leader Harry Reid says Petraeus has "made a number of statements over the years that have not proven to be factual." Welcome to Washington, general. We hope you don't mind being called a liar.
Democrats will be courting political disaster if they make a full frontal assault on General Petraeus when he testifies about the surge today before a joint hearing of the House Armed Services and International Relations committees. Petraeus knows more about Iraq than they do; he has more credibility; and - judging by his careful statements about the surge so far - he is considerably more sober-minded.
At the very least, Democrats will attempt to overwhelm his testimony with a flurry of distressing indices drawn from other recent reports about Iraq. They will wave high and often a General Accountability Office (GAO) report judging that the Iraqi government has failed to meet 15 of 18 political, security, and economic benchmarks. In all of human history, a war has never been won by checklist. The United States Congress, however, is trying to lose one by checklist.
The benchmarks represent the best wisdom on how to make political progress in Iraq, circa about a year ago. Since then, conditions in Iraq have changed dramatically, but the GAO - always preferring to use static analysis, as our friends the supply-siders have long noted - has missed it. That's the peril of having guys with green eyeshades grade your war effort.
The report fails to take account of the extraordinary turn of the Sunni tribes in Anbar, and mentions the province only twice. This is because the GAO was given a narrow mandate - to focus only on the benchmarks - even as events on the ground made the benchmarks less relevant.
When the benchmarks were written into U.S. law, they seemed the best way to address the sources of the Sunni insurgency. With the surge and the tribal revolt, that insurgency has fractured, the bulk of it siding with us, a remainder with an al Qaeda that is increasingly on the run. This has made it possible to achieve some of the intended effects of the key political benchmarks without their being legislated by the Iraqi parliament. An amnesty law was supposed to ease Sunni fighters out of the insurgency; the tribal shift has led them from the insurgency in droves. A de-Baathification law was supposed to reintegrate Sunnis into Iraqi institutions; many of the Sunnis leaving the insurgency have been joining the Iraqi Security Forces. An oil law was supposed to spread revenue to Sunni areas; the central government has just sent $107 million in aid to Anbar. Ultimately, passing the laws is important, but in the meantime Iraq is hardly frozen in place.
Sen. Dick Durbin accuses Gen. David Petraeus of "carefully manipulating the statistics" to convince people "that violence in Iraq is decreasing and thus the surge is working." Majority Leader Harry Reid says Petraeus has "made a number of statements over the years that have not proven to be factual." Welcome to Washington, general. We hope you don't mind being called a liar.
Democrats will be courting political disaster if they make a full frontal assault on General Petraeus when he testifies about the surge today before a joint hearing of the House Armed Services and International Relations committees. Petraeus knows more about Iraq than they do; he has more credibility; and - judging by his careful statements about the surge so far - he is considerably more sober-minded.
At the very least, Democrats will attempt to overwhelm his testimony with a flurry of distressing indices drawn from other recent reports about Iraq. They will wave high and often a General Accountability Office (GAO) report judging that the Iraqi government has failed to meet 15 of 18 political, security, and economic benchmarks. In all of human history, a war has never been won by checklist. The United States Congress, however, is trying to lose one by checklist.
The benchmarks represent the best wisdom on how to make political progress in Iraq, circa about a year ago. Since then, conditions in Iraq have changed dramatically, but the GAO - always preferring to use static analysis, as our friends the supply-siders have long noted - has missed it. That's the peril of having guys with green eyeshades grade your war effort.
The report fails to take account of the extraordinary turn of the Sunni tribes in Anbar, and mentions the province only twice. This is because the GAO was given a narrow mandate - to focus only on the benchmarks - even as events on the ground made the benchmarks less relevant.
When the benchmarks were written into U.S. law, they seemed the best way to address the sources of the Sunni insurgency. With the surge and the tribal revolt, that insurgency has fractured, the bulk of it siding with us, a remainder with an al Qaeda that is increasingly on the run. This has made it possible to achieve some of the intended effects of the key political benchmarks without their being legislated by the Iraqi parliament. An amnesty law was supposed to ease Sunni fighters out of the insurgency; the tribal shift has led them from the insurgency in droves. A de-Baathification law was supposed to reintegrate Sunnis into Iraqi institutions; many of the Sunnis leaving the insurgency have been joining the Iraqi Security Forces. An oil law was supposed to spread revenue to Sunni areas; the central government has just sent $107 million in aid to Anbar. Ultimately, passing the laws is important, but in the meantime Iraq is hardly frozen in place.
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