September 22, 2009 11:08 AM
- Text
Why Did Fred Thompson Wait So Long?
(National Review Online)
This column was written by Jon Lerner.
Two months ago, former senator Fred Thompson's nascent presidential campaign looked great. Conservative and establishment leaders were poised to jump on board his pick-up truck. Fundraising heavyweights were waiting in the wings. And he was positioned to run powerfully into the void of the conservative primary electorate that remained uneasy with the other leading candidates.
But two months of relative inactivity is a long time in a constantly moving campaign dynamic. In that time, the Republican race has witnessed the collapse of one-time frontrunner John McCain, the victories of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in Ames, and Rudy Giuliani's maintenance of his lead in national GOP polling despite increased scrutiny and attacks leveled against him. While Fred Thompson's candidacy still holds considerable potential, he might have missed his moment. Why did he wait?
The Thompson campaign offers reasons for the delay, mostly concerning its desire to get its team fully in place for a well-orchestrated roll out. Yet that seems a stretch. Campaign professionals are accustomed to operating on the fly, and they understand the imperative of striking when the time is right. The wait has cost Thompson dearly, and it appears to have provided no strategic benefit.
There is one thing, however seemingly unlikely, that could explain the otherwise puzzling delay. What if Fred Thompson is preparing to announce his choice of vice president when he announces his candidacy next week?
Craig Shirley notes in his authoritative book on Ronald Reagan's 1976 presidential campaign that a non-incumbent candidate for president had never named his running mate prior to his nominating convention - until Reagan did so that year. Reagan chose moderate Pennsylvania senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate as a strategic move to alter the dynamics of his challenge to Gerald Ford. He did so several weeks before the convention, at a time when the outcome was still very much in question. The national media, no friend of Reagan's, widely hailed the move as "bold" and "dazzling."
The nominating calendar in 2008 is vastly different from 1976. In 1976, there were primaries and state conventions well into July, with Reagan and Ford trading victories and fiercely battling for uncommitted delegates at each stop along the way. This time around the nominee will be determined almost certainly by the slew of primaries on February 5, if not sooner. To have the same effect, a Republican candidate attempting to follow Reagan's precedent in 2008 would need to name his running mate this December at the latest.
The vice presidency has historically been the victim of countless jokes about the office's inconsequentiality. Notwithstanding the critical role Dick Cheney has played in the current administration, the insignificance of the federal government's number-two job has frequently been made manifest.
In the 2008 presidential election, however, the identity of the next Republican vice presidential nominee could be crucially important for the conservative movement. If one accepts the notion that the leading GOP presidential candidates are less than ideal conservatives, then a candidate's selection of a running mate takes on a significance beyond that of previous years.
Should any of the ideologically questionable frontrunners win the presidency, a strong conservative could have an enormous impact as vice president. If Rudy Giuliani were president, for example, imagine the different policy pressures that would be brought to bear by a vice president Jon Kyl, rather than a vice president Tom Ridge. Eight years later, that vice president would also be the heir apparent to the Republican nomination.
Alternatively, if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008, the losing GOP vice-presidential nominee could have a major leg-up on the 2012 presidential competition. The conservative movement could go a long way toward avoiding a repeat in 2012 of the anxiety it is now experiencing with the absence of one of its own among the leading presidential candidates.
The selection of the vice presidential nominee is a curious thing. The candidates for president spend nearly every waking moment for two or more years pursuing the top job, and they are put through every manner of examination and dissection. Then, the number-two person is selected without any input from voters, without having gone through a public vetting process. Short of an unprecedented revolt by delegates at the national convention, there is no way to alter that selection. And typically, it takes place only a couple months before the general election.
It has become common for GOP presidential candidates to be asked what kind of Supreme Court appointments they would make. That is certainly an important inquiry, but because it is always hypothetical, with the date of the appointment potentially years away, it's a very easy question for candidates to duck. They simply say nice things about justices Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito. One can only speculate about the truthfulness of the candidates' campaign promises.
Given the enormous stakes for the conservative movement in the identity of the next vice-presidential nominee, and given that it is not a hypothetical consideration, but a decision that must be made next year, it would make sense for conservatives to start asking the frontrunners to the presidency this question now. The voters, the candidates, and the conservative movement would all benefit from early vice-presidential selections from the frontrunners.
Two months ago, former senator Fred Thompson's nascent presidential campaign looked great. Conservative and establishment leaders were poised to jump on board his pick-up truck. Fundraising heavyweights were waiting in the wings. And he was positioned to run powerfully into the void of the conservative primary electorate that remained uneasy with the other leading candidates.
But two months of relative inactivity is a long time in a constantly moving campaign dynamic. In that time, the Republican race has witnessed the collapse of one-time frontrunner John McCain, the victories of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in Ames, and Rudy Giuliani's maintenance of his lead in national GOP polling despite increased scrutiny and attacks leveled against him. While Fred Thompson's candidacy still holds considerable potential, he might have missed his moment. Why did he wait?
The Thompson campaign offers reasons for the delay, mostly concerning its desire to get its team fully in place for a well-orchestrated roll out. Yet that seems a stretch. Campaign professionals are accustomed to operating on the fly, and they understand the imperative of striking when the time is right. The wait has cost Thompson dearly, and it appears to have provided no strategic benefit.
There is one thing, however seemingly unlikely, that could explain the otherwise puzzling delay. What if Fred Thompson is preparing to announce his choice of vice president when he announces his candidacy next week?
Craig Shirley notes in his authoritative book on Ronald Reagan's 1976 presidential campaign that a non-incumbent candidate for president had never named his running mate prior to his nominating convention - until Reagan did so that year. Reagan chose moderate Pennsylvania senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate as a strategic move to alter the dynamics of his challenge to Gerald Ford. He did so several weeks before the convention, at a time when the outcome was still very much in question. The national media, no friend of Reagan's, widely hailed the move as "bold" and "dazzling."
The nominating calendar in 2008 is vastly different from 1976. In 1976, there were primaries and state conventions well into July, with Reagan and Ford trading victories and fiercely battling for uncommitted delegates at each stop along the way. This time around the nominee will be determined almost certainly by the slew of primaries on February 5, if not sooner. To have the same effect, a Republican candidate attempting to follow Reagan's precedent in 2008 would need to name his running mate this December at the latest.
The vice presidency has historically been the victim of countless jokes about the office's inconsequentiality. Notwithstanding the critical role Dick Cheney has played in the current administration, the insignificance of the federal government's number-two job has frequently been made manifest.
In the 2008 presidential election, however, the identity of the next Republican vice presidential nominee could be crucially important for the conservative movement. If one accepts the notion that the leading GOP presidential candidates are less than ideal conservatives, then a candidate's selection of a running mate takes on a significance beyond that of previous years.
Should any of the ideologically questionable frontrunners win the presidency, a strong conservative could have an enormous impact as vice president. If Rudy Giuliani were president, for example, imagine the different policy pressures that would be brought to bear by a vice president Jon Kyl, rather than a vice president Tom Ridge. Eight years later, that vice president would also be the heir apparent to the Republican nomination.
Alternatively, if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008, the losing GOP vice-presidential nominee could have a major leg-up on the 2012 presidential competition. The conservative movement could go a long way toward avoiding a repeat in 2012 of the anxiety it is now experiencing with the absence of one of its own among the leading presidential candidates.
The selection of the vice presidential nominee is a curious thing. The candidates for president spend nearly every waking moment for two or more years pursuing the top job, and they are put through every manner of examination and dissection. Then, the number-two person is selected without any input from voters, without having gone through a public vetting process. Short of an unprecedented revolt by delegates at the national convention, there is no way to alter that selection. And typically, it takes place only a couple months before the general election.
It has become common for GOP presidential candidates to be asked what kind of Supreme Court appointments they would make. That is certainly an important inquiry, but because it is always hypothetical, with the date of the appointment potentially years away, it's a very easy question for candidates to duck. They simply say nice things about justices Roberts, Scalia, Thomas, and Alito. One can only speculate about the truthfulness of the candidates' campaign promises.
Given the enormous stakes for the conservative movement in the identity of the next vice-presidential nominee, and given that it is not a hypothetical consideration, but a decision that must be made next year, it would make sense for conservatives to start asking the frontrunners to the presidency this question now. The voters, the candidates, and the conservative movement would all benefit from early vice-presidential selections from the frontrunners.
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