Romney's Hollow Victory

The New Republic:Straw Poll Winner Underperforms, While Huckabee Excels

(The New Republic) 
But despite this impressive showing, Romney's operation sometimes gave off a Potemkin feel. Case in point: A little after 9:30 in the morning, Romney, wife Ann, and a gaggle of staffers known as the "swarm team" trooped to the parking lot to greet an arriving bus. The first person off the coach was a stout, gray-haired woman named Joni Scotter, who shrieked the moment she laid eyes on the governor and his wife. "We're going to have such a good day!" she said, then planted herself at Romney's side as the rest of the bus filed by. It was, all in all, an impressive display. Scotter, who turned out to be Romney's Linn County chair, told me she'd packed the bus full of friends and neighbors and shipped off from Marion two hours earlier.

As the crowd dispersed, the khaki-clad candidate and his wife boarded a golf cart, which whisked them out of sight. What followed was a bit of a letdown. I watched the next 15 Romney buses roll in from all across Iowa. By my count, ten of those were no more than half full. A bus from Boone was less than a quarter full, as was another from Cherokee.

The pattern repeated itself throughout the day. For example, the Romney campaign had erected an enormous soundstage on a lush plot of grass and hired a rock band to perform on it. The scene looked like something out of the video for the Guns N' Roses song "Paradise City." But I never saw more than ten or 20 people in front of the stage at once. Most of Romney's supporters remained seated under a tent 20 yards away, seemingly indifferent to the music.

For his part, Huckabee, had no buses and only a threadbare staff. The $150,000 he'd spent leading up to Ames paled alongside Romney's millions. But he made the most of it. His soundstage had fit on the back of a modest trailer-bed when I saw it the day before. It looked as if it had been abandoned in an unused parking lot, until I realized that the parking lot was actually Huckabee's home base. (The candidates bid on locations in an auction; it turns out you get what you pay for.) By eleven o'clock on straw-poll day, the temperature was already pushing 90 and the heat seemed to bubble up from the asphalt. But a crowd of 150 to 200 people had gathered to hear old rock 'n' roll numbers. The main draw was a soulful electric guitarist named ... Mike Huckabee.

Still, it wasn't until the afternoon that I realized Huckabee might be poised for a breakthrough. Shortly after one o'clock, conservative talk-show maven Laura Ingraham, our intrepid emcee, introduced each of the straw poll candidates. The crowd erupted with applause for Romney, just as you'd expect for a man who had chartered at least one bus for each of Iowa's 99 counties. Thereafter, each of the other candidates was introduced to steady applause: Tom Tancredo. John Cox. Ron Paul. (OK, John Cox received slightly less than "steady" applause, but even I had no clue who John Cox was and I was covering the event.) Finally, Ingraham got to Huckabee, at which point the crowd roared all over again.

Mike Huckabee is about as reliable as social conservatives come: He's been on the front lines of the fight against abortion and gay marriage and is unimpressed by the theory of evolution. But it's not so much his worldview that distinguishes him — Brownback can check all the same boxes — as his breezy charm. Sitting in the WHO studio the day before the straw poll, Deace and Huckabee bantered about their recent weight-loss regimens, which for Deace included drinking large amounts of water. (Deace has lost some 65 pounds in recent months.) "I do get up and pee every twenty minutes," Deace confessed. "Well, that's better than peeing every twenty minutes and not getting up," the former governor parried.

Huckabee's magnetism surely helped his cause on Saturday. The campaign distributed around 1,850 tickets and received almost 2,600 votes. (Straw poll attendees must obtain a $35 ticket in order to vote. Most campaigns buy them up and distribute them to supporters.) That's unusual for top performers at Ames, who normally distribute far more tickets than they net in votes, as was the case with both Romney and Brownback.

Huckabee seems to have exerted a strong pull on undecided voters. There were four voting sites at Ames: one on either end of a building called Scheman, one in an auditorium called Stephens, and one in the Hilton Coliseum, the main speaking venue. The voting area on the northern end of Scheman was closest to the Huckabee tent. It was also far and away the most convenient for his supporters, given that Hilton, the next closest site, was a bit of a zoo. Nonetheless, according to an unofficial tally provided by a rival campaign, Huckabee received about 60 percent of his votes in Hilton. It's not hard to imagine the undecideds listening to Huckabee's speech, then walking into the lobby and pulling the lever for him. If true, that would bode well for Huckabee's chances of denting Romney's lead.

Two things have to happen for that to come to pass. The longer-term priority is to nudge Brownback aside. The two men appeal to the same demographic and they combined to draw 33 percent of the Ames tally to Romney's 31.5. A candidate who consolidated their supporters could legitimately challenge Romney in Iowa. All the more so when you consider that many social conservatives back Romney because he seems to be the most right-wing of the top-tier candidates. Were Huckabee to look like he had a real shot at winning Iowa, he might peel off a decent number of would-be Romney voters. Of course, skeptics say the significance of the Huckabee-Brownback bloc was inflated by the absence of McCain and Giuliani on Saturday, but that analysis seems backward. Who, after all, are McCain and Giuliani more likely to draw votes from: the moderate former governor of Massachusetts, or the devoutly pro-life former governor of Arkansas?

All this is moot for the moment, though. Brownback's chief strategist, Rob Wasinger, insists that the senator is moving full speed ahead with his campaign. And, though Brownback dumped far more money into his third-place finish than Huckabee spent on second — the campaign rented nearly 60 buses for the occasion — local Republicans have a hard time finding fault with that decision. "I don't see how a guy who finished first, second, or third can say I'm going to do anything but go all the way right now," says Jeff Lamberti, an influential Iowa Republican who recently served in the state Senate. "They're in a position to stay in until January."

That makes the shorter-term goal of capitalizing on the good showing by raising money and signing up activists all the more important for Huckabee. There is presumably only so much money available for a second-tier social conservative. If Huckabee starts to monopolize it, he could force Brownback's exit by depriving him of cash.

In the meantime, it's Mitt Romney who may be sweating a little. Around five o'clock, the ex-governor ventured outside to sign some autographs, surrounded by a scrum of "Team Romney" staffers and volunteers. The mood was generally light. One young woman performed a series of flips and cartwheels. A blond man with a beard soared several feet into the air on a kind of industrial-strength pogo stick, which Romney's nephew manufactures. But Romney himself looked sober. Several strands of hair had broken free from the right side of his head, something I hadn't previously thought possible, and he was unusually flushed. As Steve Deace might say, we're not in the "philosophical-ethereal realm" anymore.

[utahguy1-2009]

JackSteen1,

Seems to have a problem posting his comments. It also appears that all he can do is name call Republicans because Republicans stand for small government. He seems to be frightened that he won''t get his entitlements if Romney becomes president.

As far as Romney''s hallow victory. I wonder if Noam Scheiber considers it a hollow victory if Mitt Romney increases in the national polls from 8% to 17%, gets momentum to win the Illinois Straw Poll, and gets millions of dollars in free publicity. Wow! What an enormous boost to a campaign and return on investment. Great job Mitt Romney.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.

[jacksteen1]

Mike Huckabee doesn''t believe in evolution and Mutt Romney believes that a White Salamander told Joe Smith to dig a hole and find gold tablets upon which the new cult of mormonism could be founded.

Nice to see that the Republishit Party has gone beyond the pale when it comes to topping the ********* candidates of old - like Ronnie Ragoon, the Great Drooler, who ruined our nation and handed its governance to the televangelists of the day - Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and the "Moral Majhority."

How can there still be people who unashamedly call themselves members of the Republiturd Party ? Have you people no SHAME for what your "party of Lincoln" has done to our nation''s reputation around the globe ?

Fritter away your dollars on your ''god-fearing'' candidates, and continue to worship BOTH your gods.....your tiny organs and your wallets.